فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 101 (بهار 1401)

The widespread outbreak of Covid 19 disease has cost the government and the people so much that its effects need to be investigated. Therefore, this study tries to study the strategy of the government and the people in the form of game theory, considering the limitations created following the outbreak of coronavirus during the period of 2020/02/19 to 2021/04/19.  The results showed that, when the government chooses either strategy of intervention and non-intervention, People choose the strategy of violating restrictions between the strategy of staying at home and the strategy of violating restrictions. Also, both in the case of choosing a strategy to stay at home and in the case of choosing a strategy of violation of restrictions by the people, the government will choose the strategy of intervention between intervention strategy and non-intervention. The reason for this choice is that if the government does not come to control and prevent this disease, society will face great social costs due to the widespread epidemic. Therefore, the Nash equilibrium in this game has been the choice of intervention strategy by the government and the strategy of violation of restrictions by the people. Accordingly, the government needs to take important steps to persuade individuals to accept restrictions by reducing the opportunity cost of staying at home.

Poverty and various forms of inequality, including class, gender, racial, and ethnic inequalities, are the consequences of imbalances of power relations and make society subject to social instability and unrest. makers.

 This study investigates the effects of income distribution on social unrest, using agent-based modeling. This model is simulated using Iranian data collected from an environment in which two groups of inteligent agents, i.e, citizens and military forces, exist. This intelligent model with an agent-based simulation approach, allows the policymaker to change the parameters and the assumptions of the model based on the prevailing conditions in society and to study the policy outcomes.

Based on the results obtained from the simulation when the level of reward for the military is low, the probability of victory of the rebellious citizens increases. But, when the military forces’ income is in the middle range, the likelihood of civil war is much higher and once their income is high, the higher is the probability of the government victory.

Employment is one of the main factores affecting the formation of individuals’s identity. Having a decent job and lower income inequalities in the society can contribute to social and political stability. Strengthening social capital will create interpersonal, intergroup and social solidarity and cohesion which lead to the lower likelihood of social unrest.

Reducing the consumption of goods harmful to human health is one of the government’s policies goals all around the world. One of the control tools in order to reduce the consumption of these goods is to increase their consumption tax rate in order to increase prices resulting less consumption and provide the required financial resources for culturalization, education and consumption control in the society. The purpose of this article is to estimate the optimal taxation rate on the consumption of goods harmful to health in a way that despite increased tax revenues, it would have the least disruptive effects on the household’s welfare. For this purpose, using the almost ideal quadratic demand system based on non-linear seemingly unrelated regressions and the household’s data for 1390 to 1398, the demand for health-damaging goods, has been estimated and relevant price elasticities are calculated. Then, based on the compensating variation as a welfare measure by micro-data (for each sample household) and in various income scenarios, the optimal tax rates have been estimated and analyzed for year 1398, using nonlinear optimization methods. Based on the results and considering that implementing a same tax rate for all good groups are easier and more practical, a tax rate of 31% (including VAT and duties of article 48 of the Law on Accession Some Articles to the Regulatory for Part of Government Financial Regulations Act, 1393) is suggested to apply for all good groups. In this situation, the average welfare reduction for each household is close to 2310 thousand Rials and the amount of tax revenues would be 68,595 billion Rials, based on the information of year 1398. This tax revenue is more than 4 times of the budget law performance in this year.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) and the impact of domestic and foreign variables in such markets to access the direct intervention of central banks in these markets in selected oil-exporting countries (Iran, Russia, Norway, and Mexico) during1997/1-2017/4, Using the VECM and VAR model. The results show that the general situation of the foreign exchange market in Iran and Russia is the appreciation of the national currency and in Mexico and Norway is neutral. Most of the direct interventions of the Central Bank of Iran are under Leaning Against the Wind, by contrast, the other countries' are normal. For Russia, fluctuations in real GDP, for Iran, fluctuations in domestic interest rates, and for Mexico and Norway, fluctuations in domestic and U.S. interest rates affect the EMP. In addition, to explain the level trend of EMP by its shock for each country, for Russia, real GDP shocks, and for Mexico, U.S. interest rates shocks and U.S. GDP shocks also explain the level trend of EMP. The central bank direct interventions of all countries except Norway reacted significantly to the oil price shocks, which can be interpreted that the Norwegian Oil Revenue Fund has succeeded in maintaining independence the central bank direct interventions from global oil market fluctuations.

In this study, the effect of government credit intervention in the banking system on the growth of Iran's economic sectors was investigated. For this purpose, the fully modified least squares model (FMOLS) was used. Also, research data were collected during the period of 1997-2007 from the Statistics Center of Iran, the Central Bank and specialized banks (Bank of Industry and Mines, Agriculture and Housing). The results showed that the variables of net capital stock of economic sectors and payment facilities of specialized banks to economic sectors have a strong positive and significant effect, the variables of employed population of economic sectors and the share of each specialized bank in the total banking system The average positive and significant effect of the variables of commercial openness and the state ownership index of banks has a weak positive and significant effect on the value added of economic sectors. Also, the variable of private ownership index of banks does not have a significant effect on value added of economic sectors. Also, the variable of private ownership index of banks does not have a significant effect on value added of economic sectors. Therefore, the most important result of the present study was that government credit intervention through specialized banks (industry and mining, agriculture and housing) has a significant impact on the economic growth of relevant sectors (industry, agriculture and construction). However, the state nature of banks and their non-share in the profits and losses of enterprises, especially in times of recession, has caused a weak effect of this type of ownership on the value added of economic sectors. Accordingly, the officials of the country's banking system were suggested to develop banks in order to become specialized in order to achieve economic growth in various sectors. Also, refine the approach of banks from recipients of interest on repayment of facilities to participants in the profits and losses of enterprises.

agent-based modeling is an emerging computational technique that makes it possible to simulate complex economic systems, including the banking network, with a bottom-up approach. In this paper, the country's banking network is simulated with an intelligent multi-agent modeling model and indicates that these agents behave based on the adaptive learning. This modeling has been done with the aim of examining and evaluating the impact of regulatory policies on the interbank market and based on the balance sheet data of  25 member banks of the interbank market in the years 2006-2019. To assess the impact of regulatory policy, the scenario of having Clearing House to reduce non-payments in the interbank market has been examined. Due to the learning of the agents, in this simulation, the results show the direct and indirect impact of regulations on the interbank market by changing the adaptive strategies of the agents. According to the results of this study, monitoring the interbank market through the Clearing House, solves the problem of information asymmetry in the interbank market and thus reduces financial contagion and increases the stability of the system.

The non-optimal choice of exchange rate policy is a serious obstacle to improving the country's economic situation. Considering that the involvement of political economy factors in the adoption of exchange rate policy causes its inefficiency and the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries seems to has been more influenced by the political economy factors, the study of amount and how the political economy factors influence on the choice of exchange rate regime of developing countries in comparison with developed countries is necessary and important. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of trade, financial and political economy factors on the de facto exchange rate regime in developing and developed countries over the time period 1996-2012. The estimates of the present study have been estimated using logit and probit models. The results of the research show that in developing and developed countries, an increase in the size of economy increases the likelihood of choosing a floating exchange rate regime, and an increase in government strength, the power of interest groups, the level of democracy, and oil rents increases the likelihood of choosing a fixed exchange rate regime, although the power of interest groups is not significant in developed countries. The nonlinear relationship between the institutional quality and the exchange rate regime has been proposed by Alsina and Wagner (2006) is also confirmed.

In the present study, in the first stage, using Gerton and Roper (1977) model, the central bank policy intervention index and foreign exchange market pressure were calculated. Then, using the STAR regression model, the nonlinear effects of financial risks with policy intervention of the central bank and the pressure of the foreign exchange market on the country's banking stability are examined. According to the results of Gerton and Roper models; In 26 of the 33 years surveyed, the country's economy has faced increasing pressure from the foreign exchange market. Also, the average degree of central bank intervention is 0.79. In other words, in the period between 1986 and 1397, 79% of the central bank intervention policy was inconsistent. The results of STAR model estimation with the central bank intervention as a transition variable show that the threshold value of the transition variable is 6.55 and with the central bank intervention exceeding this threshold, the reaction of monetary officials to increase this variable has increased sharply. As the central bank's intervention has increased, policymakers have tried to control the growth of the exchange rate and prevent it from rising by reacting more. Therefore, when the exchange rate experiences higher growth, policymakers are more in control of the exchange rate and pay less attention to its deviations, which increases the liquidity and credit risk of banks and leads to a decrease in the country's banking stability. According to the estimation results, the variables of capital adequacy and economic growth have a positive effect and central bank intervention, liquidity risk, credit risk and inflation rate also have a negative effect on bank stability. The negative coefficient of the intervention index indicate that the central bank, in the face of increasing positive exchange rate deviations, is pursuing a decline in the growth of its foreign reserves. Therefore, expansionary monetary policies need to be adjusted for the stabilization or non-stabilization of the exchange rate. Also, the high risk of banking activities and the transfer of this risk to other monetary and financial sectors of the economy, leads to increased costs and complexity of the process of receiving facilities, imposing this cost on other facilities and reducing the ability to provide credit, diversion and failure to meet facility objectives. Banking income instability, which requires more attention to financial and banking indicators.

Banking systems are critical to economies, and their influence is significantly stronger in Iran. As a result, fragility in the country's financial system and the emergence of systemic risks in the banking system undermine the economy's stability and performance. Due to the importance of systemic risk in the banking network, this study examines the factors affecting the occurrence of systemic risk and systemically important financial institutions. For this purpose, this paper combines the ARMA-gjrGARCH-DCCt model and graph theory to dynamically and statically analyze systemic risk in the Iranian banking system and also compute ΔCoVaR index to examines the factors affecting the occurrence of systemic risk. The study of this research has been done on the data of 9 important banking institutions in the Iranian Stock Exchange for the two periods of 12/06/1390 to 01/04/1395 and 11/10/1397 to 01/10/1399. The results indicate that Mellat is the most significant banking institution in the banking network in both times, while Saderat is the second most important institution in the banking network in the first period and Pasargad is the second most important institution in the second period. Additionally, the integrity of the banking network has altered throughout time but has typically increased, and the correlation between the banking network has increased, enhancing the likelihood of systemic risk and risk transfer within the network. Additionally, the size and risk profile of banks, as well as the topology and structure of the banking network, all have a significant impact on the incidence of systemic risk in the banking network.

Changes in the real exchange rate affect a country's balance of payments and international competitiveness, and its misalignment from the long-run equilibrium level usually creates imbalances in the macro economy. This is also important in countries with oil resources due to their foreign trade structure. Accordingly, due to the existence of few internal studies on the subject in selected countries with specific common features, the purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the real exchange rate misalignment in the OPEC member countries in the period 2000-2020. In this regard, with calculating the real exchange rate, equilibrium values and ultimately its misalignment in the selected research sample with approaches more consistent with theoretical foundations, the factors affecting the real exchange rate misalignment such as capital account openness and exchange rate flexibility has been examined by Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) technique. The results, in addition to showing the real exchange rate misalignment in each of the countries, show that the capital account strategy and exchange rate flexibility have a significant effect on the real exchange rate imbalance. Finally, some suggestions based on the research results are presented. According to the research results, adopting a managed floating exchange rate system, preventing the increase of money and liquidity and planning to reduce the conversion of dollars from natural resources into national currency, controlling inflation and thus maintaining the competitiveness of oil exporting countries in comparison It has been proposed with other countries as policy solutions.

Understanding the necessity of establishing a bank in Iran requires a correct realizing of the mechanism of the money market in an era in which banks had no place or position. At that time distrusting on the borrower credits, lack of reliable information about the number and place of lenders, rising interest rates and the prevalence of high- interest borrowing were some of the costs that transaction parties faced. As per theory of transaction costs, the solution to reduce the costs at the situation that the market operates according to the price mechanism is to form corporations and the intermediaries in the monetary market that they are banks. given this interpretation, due to the high costs that the Iranian businessmen and governors had been acknowledged, establishment of banking at the country monetary market were necessary for trade and profitability. The history and the situations led to establish of banking in Iran didn’t receive well attention as much as privileges that given to foreign governments. In fact, banks could decrease two kinds of transactions costs: 1) Before establishing of the bank - due to the lack of a strong and trusted intermediary between the parties - people incurred heavy costs. 2) bank, in its nature is an especially intermediary that eliminated many of the transaction costs of individual intermediation in the monetary market. Thus, at that time (in an era in which The Imperial Bank of Iran established), the benefits and legal relationships that result from the formation of a banking institution in the country sacrificed to the enjoyment of foreigners beyond weakness and degeneration of Iran’s governors. because, the policy of the government of Iran at that time was nothing but to keep our country away from productive business affairs and the real capacities of the bank.

The literature of political economy emphasizes the role of political institutions in controlling the behavior of politicians and economic choices. Political institutions include the arrangements established in the ruling political structure such as elections, parliament, government, laws, etc, in which, the political competition is one of the most important descriptors of the mentioned structure. This competition for political power, such as the candidacy of candidates for the parliamentary seats, will include the right to control, shape the content, and guide the public policy. Except the institutional factors, the natural resources abundance such as oil will affect the economic performance of countries dependent on the generated proceeds.Therefore, the present study examines the impact of political competition and oil revenues on the economic growth of Iranian provinces using the dynamic panel data method in the period of 2000-2019. The results show that, there is a non-linear relationship between the political competition and the U-shaped economic growth in various contexts, so that after the desired level of political competition, increasing the political competition forces politicians to formulate growth-promoting economic policies. The interaction of political competition and oil revenues on the economic growth of regions is positive, so increasing the political competition will moderate the destructive impact of oil revenues on the economic growth.

Access to technology in the upstream oil and gas industry is one of the most challenging issues. In this industry, in order to be able to apply the desired effects of technology in the economic and development dimension, in the decision-making process, the choice to acquire technology must be such as to avoid repeating the ineffective approaches of the past. However, the most divisive And explicit division between the existing approaches is a fully participatory view with other international actors and another non-participatory (independence-seeking) view of the domestic sector. In this research, using game theory, it examines limit approaches through multilayer modeling (Complete and incomplete information, static, dynamic and evolutionary) and analyzes two participatory approaches and non-cooperation in acquiring and using the technologies of Iranchr('39')s upstream oil and gas industry (Study sample of phase 11 of South Pars), explains their strengths and weaknesses for deciding between the two approaches and how to access the technology. Research results show, achieving technology in the long run, by imposing some restrictions, improves its effects on the industry, and a completely independent view has only short-term beneficial effects and sometimes even contradicts the principle of resource protection. It is emphasized accordingly, the participatory approach should be considered as the main policy provided that internally, based on the proper use of the natural benefits of this industry in the country and the effort to become an imitator to be a leader in the field of technology in the international arena, has been set as the ultimate goal.