فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 90 (بهار 1401)

This article considers the effect of fiscal policy on inclusive development. Inclusive development is one of the concepts that has been introduced in the development economics literature in the last decade and especially with emphasis on the social and political aspects of development, the distribution of development achievements among different sections of society is in focus. Since fiscal policies are one of the main instruments of the government to eliminate deprivation and imbalances, it is important to understand the effectiveness of these policies in this regard. In this study, the components of fiscal policy include the combination of expenditures and revenues and its effect on inclusive development in the period 1981-2018 in the form of two models of structural vector auto-regression has been studied. Findings show that most components of government fiscal policy except economic expenditures do not have a significant effect on the index of inclusive development and these economic expenditures have a negative impact on inclusive development. The results show that the government's fiscal policies have failed to achieve or accelerate inclusive development, and despite its legal mission, the government has not been successful in comprehensive expanding welfare and extending it to all social groups. Historical analysis also shows that since the beginning of the 2010s and with the intensification of sanctions and currency fluctuations, the relationship between fiscal policy and the index of inclusive development has been weakened. It seems that the reform of the budgeting process and the simultaneous attention to the two constraints of equality and sustainability in growth and development targeting for fiscal policy on inclusive development is essential.

The primary purpose of this study is to explain an extended concept of human development called human flourishing using the link between economic and psychological approaches. Also, the paper explains why non-cognitive skills are essential. The first approach is based on the technology of skill formation, and the second approach is based on the theory of hierarchy of needs. The Human Development Index (HFI) is calculated using the Human Development Index (HDI) calculation method and adding an index under the title Crime Index (CI). Accordingly, in this study, 30 selected countries in the form of two groups of in the mentioned indicators are examined. The countries of the first group are in the list of countries with the best education system, and the countries of the second group are not in this list. In the first group, there is no significant gap between the two charts, HDI and HFI, and they have a similar trend. The CI chart also shows the low level of crime and risky behaviors and confirms the higher level of non-cognitive and personality skills in this group of countries. In the second country group, due to higher CI than the first country group, the HDI graph is higher than the HFI graph. Both charts have a similar trend but have a greater downward slope than the first group. The CI chart is also for the second group, with a steeper slope than the first group. Thus, the first group of countries has a higher capacity to meet their self-fulfillment needs due to the high quality of the education system and more attention to cultivating a wide range of skills.  As we move to countries with lower quality education systems, this capacity decreases.

Acquiring information about expectations is difficult as individuals' beliefs are unobservable. Thus, how expectation forms and how to model expectation is an open question in economic modelling that has been addressed recently by experimental economics. In this article, in order to identify expectations, we examine the behaviour of subjects when encountering new exchange rates in an experiment.  Furthermore, in this experiment, differences of expectation formation among participants and their relation to cognitive abilities are analysed. To motivate people, incentive payments are used. In our setting, while the rational expectation hypothesis is not supported, the adaptive expectation is not rejected. Agents form their expectations in the same way regardless of their cognitive ability. In this context, individuals overreact to the new quantity of exchange rate which is assumed as a noisy perception.  This finding is considered as evidence of emotional behaviours in the exchange market.

Urban planning typically involves technical and political procedures of developing and designing land use and determining urban boundaries. However, similar to other government interventions, urban planning creates rents for some urban lands while causing losses to other lands. To gain the maximum profit, land developers prefer to develop lands that have acquired higher privileges, i.e., more extensive construction permits. It will make cities' development patterns unbalanced in favor of land with more accumulated planning rents. The transfer of development rights (TDR) is a market approach to designing urban development that balances. It evenly distributes the benefits and disadvantages of urban planning, especially in protecting historic buildings and agricultural and garden lands. This paper simulates the application of TDR as an alternative urban planning way to cope with the unbalanced development of urban lands in Tehran. We utilized an urban dataset from 2007 to 2019 and evaluated the efficiency of TDR using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). Results implied that the usage of the TDR would improve the distribution of investment in Tehran in a more balanced pattern. However, more studies, especially considering the regional differences in the city and expansion of the model for other for-profit or non-profit usages such as urban gardens, make it imperative to use.

Due to the importance of balancing internal and external of the economy, research on the interaction effects of the budget deficit, savings gap, and current account deficit has always been a major issue for policymakers. The main purpose of this study was to test the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis during the period 1978-2019 in the Iranian economy with the presence of the degree of trade openness for two models of oil trade and without oil trade. In the present paper, by providing a theoretical framework and using the Johansen - Juselius cointegration test method and the error correction mechanism, long-term and short-term relationships of the variables of this research are investigated. The results showed that the long-run relationship among the components of the triple deficit hypothesis is established in the two models of oil trade and without oil trade, but the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis is not confirmed in the short run. Through the Impulse response functions, decisions were made about the interrelationships among the variables, and the results of this method confirmed the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis for the oil trade model and the occurrence of the inverse mechanism for the oil-free trade model. Finally, in the oil trade model, internal and external imbalances reduced trade openness, and in the non-oil trade model, only the savings gap played such a role. This emphasized the key role of the private sector in reducing internal and external imbalances.

Improving the quality of institutions with development of the country's economic infrastructure can reduce the degree of fiscal policy cycles in developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of good governance and political cycles on the liquidity and budget deficit changes during 1978-2018. The research method is descriptive analytical by using econometric method of the GMM. Data are from the Central Bank of Iran and World Bank site for Iranian Economy. The research results show the effect of good governance on the variables of liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant.  Also the interactive effects of good governance and the election dummy variables on the liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant. These results indicate that good governance during the elections can control the budget deficit and liquidity changes, hence to control the business-political cycles, suggest to improve the good governance in Iran.

In long-term gas contracts, there is usually a risk for the seller that the buyer will refuse to take delivery. For this reason, the condition of obligation to take or pay in such contracts has become common. Commitment condition is a condition that obliges the buyer in the gas sales contract to pay the seller a part of the contract price, which is determined as a percentage of the total amount, even if he does not receive the agreed gas volume. The research question is whether this condition has economic efficiency? Will a long-term balance between buyer and seller be an option for this condition in the contract or not? To answer these question, first, with the concept of evolutionary game theory, we have shown a picture of contracts before the existence of this condition and after its formation. Then, by setting the normal form of the game and using Python software, we have repeated this game thousand times, the results show that accepting the condition of commitment to take or pay will be stable evolutionary equilibrium. From this perspective, the inclusion of such a condition in the contract creates economic efficiency, and the policy recommendation in this regard would be for policy makers to prefer a lower definite income to a higher probable income by including such a condition.