نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 24 (بهار 1401)

Given the establishment of the Biden administration in the United States, a future analysis of Iran-US relations and confrontation is urgently needed. Therefore, the main question of this article is to identify the main actors and situations in this field. Methodologically, this research was conducted with a mixed approach (quantitative and qualitative) and the data were analyzed with a game-oriented approach using Mactor software. Expert findings show that in addition to the two central actors, namely Iran and the United States, other influential actors include Israel, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Also probable scenario is nuclear agreement and regional competition. because, some goals of all actors are relatively achieved, based on the balance of power, Iran will improve their strategic depth by lifting sanctions, and the United States will prevent the growth of Iran's nuclear program. In addition, at the regional level, hostility is avoided by managing tensions and, of course, they do not move towards cooperation.

Nahaja, as an equipment-oriented force, needs centers of gravity and Resistant and safe infrastructure in order to be at the highest level of combat readiness to respond to any threat.The main purpose of the research is to develop physical defense strategies in Nahaja and answer the raised research questions using a mixed method and case study. The total statistical population is 65 people, of whom twenty people were known as experts of the community. Data collection was by field method using interview with experts, questionnaire and library method, and the reliability of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha, was 0.889. To do so, expertise approach was run to extract the environmental factors namely strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities. Drawing upon the David method, following that, the environmental internal and external factors were separated, and the effective variables and cyrrent status were determined Accordingly, based on the determined IFE and EFE, the current status compared to the desired one was defined, and by forming a SWOT matrix, physical defense strategies in Nahaja were developed. Ultimately, using the QSPM matrix and consideirng the priorities, "upgarding the physical quality through the development of local capacities using intelligent and integrative technical knowledge management with the aim of reducing the physical vulnerability of Nahaja" with a value of 7.90 was rated first.

For a long time, one of the most important problems in wars has been the enemy's operations to destroy facilities and communication networks. The destruction of bridges and roads, air, missile, or artillery attacks, and the countless cyber-attacks in recent years prove that one of the main goals of the enemy in wars is to weaken through the destruction of facilities and equipment. In contrast, the defense forces seek to make the most of their resources and facilities to prevent the enemy from reaching its goal. In this research, a multi-period dynamic interdiction problem in fuzzy conditions is investigated in order to help military decision-makers and commanders to choose an appropriate strategy. In this problem, the defense forces in the role of interdictor try to minimize the maximum flow during the T period so that at each stage the interdictor and the enemy are fully aware of the performance of the other side. Edge capacities in this model are considered as fuzzy variables. To solve the proposed model, first, the fuzzy dynamic interdiction problem is transformed into the deterministic dynamic interdiction problem with the help of the concepts of credibility measure and chance constraint programming. Then, by creating the crisp two-level problem created by duality, it is transformed into a single-level problem, and then it is solved by using the generalization of Banders decomposition algorithm. Finally, the validity of the problem is evaluated by providing a numerical sample.

Strategy is widely used in management issues in various economic, political and social fields, especially military, and is considered as one of the important elements related to management and is the basis of managerial decisions, so that it can not be considered separate from management, or successful management. , Is often the result of developing appropriate strategies. The main purpose of the research is to formulate logistics strategies (readiness and support) for joint operations of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This research is of applied development type and descriptive method with analytical approach. The sample size is 86 people and the method of data collection is field and library. A questionnaire with 133 questions was used to complete the research. Accordingly, out of 133 factors that were identified and consolidated for formulating logistics strategies of AJA joint operations, 33 factors of weakness, 22 factors of strength, 21 factors of opportunity and 57 factors of threat were identified in the form of 9 components of internal and external environment. Finally, the strategies were developed using the SWOT technique and their prioritization was determined using the Tapsis method. By analyzing and determining the strategic position of the organization and analyzing the gap, AJA is in a defensive-oriented defensive position. Therefore, 14 strategies were formulated and suggestions were made to move from the existing position to the desired offensive position.

One of the most important career development strategies is to promote education. Smart education is planning for career advancement through purposeful upgrading of education. Having a long-term perspective and a proactive personality trait can be effective in achieving a smart education. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of proactivity in career development on the smart education of employees of one of the industrial organizations in the field of defense with the mediating role of proactive personality. The method of the present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-correlational in terms of data collection. The statistical population of the study was the employees of one of the industrial organizations in the field of defense and Based on random sampling, 225 of them were selected as the sample. SPSS and AMOS software were used for data analysis. Questionnaires (Presbytero 2015; Tikhmiro 2015; Ink and Liu 2016) were used to measure the research variables, the reliability of which was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha. The results of data analysis show that proactivity in career development has a direct and indirect effect on the smart education of employees through both direct and indirect proactive personality mediation. The results of research in the field of career path development have brought innovations and help managers of companies and organizations to understand the impact of proactivity approach in career path development on smart education of employees through the mediation of proactive personality

Heat stress is the most important climate feature of Khuzestan province and the most influential atmospheric phenomenon on manpower in the study area. In this study, in order to investigate the temporal and spatial heat stress affecting the manpower of military units based in Khuzestan province, First, a special exploratory study was conducted on the subject and method of research, and then the physiological equivalent temperature index was compared with the standard effective temperature index and the physiological equivalent temperature index was found to be more appropriate for this research. Data from 12 synoptic stations in the study area with a statistical period of 30 years (1990-2020) have been used to extract the index. Data on climatic parameters including wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, water vapor pressure and cloud cover were received daily from the Meteorological Organization and GIS software was used to draw the map. The research findings show that the trend of index changes in the last 30 years has been increasing and is projected to reach 18,088 in 2030. The stations of Abadan, Omidieh, Hindijan and Bostan in the west and south of the region are the most days with heat stress and the most unfavorable place for manpower in military units in the region. In terms of time, July and August are the worst times for the use of manpower in the region, respectively, and the months of November and March have the best conditions for the use of manpower in military units based in Khuzestan province.