فصلنامه سیاستهای مالی و اقتصادی
سال دهم شماره 37 (بهار 1401)

Credit risk is one of the most important risk factors in banks and financing institutions. This risk arises when the recipients of credit facilities are not able to repay their installments and debts intentionally or unintentionally.The main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the credit risk of knowledge-based companies located in science and technology parks of Semnan province. For this purpose, using the logit regression model, the quantitative variables of Rosenbluth concentration index, value added ratio, capital formation in industry and virtual variables of ownership status and type of knowledge-based companies were used. In order to calculate the quantitative variables of the research, the micro-data of the Iranian industrial sector in 2016 and 2017 were used based on the four-digit industry codes (ISIC) and the model was fitted. According to the results, the variables of ratio of concentration and value added have a negative and significant effect on credit risk; as each of these variables increases, assuming the other variables remain constant, the likelihood of facility deferral or credit risk decreases. Credit risk increases as the capital formation ratio in the industry increases. Facilities are more likely to be deferred in limited liability companies and cooperatives than in private limited companies. The risk of lending facilities to Type 2 manufacturing companies is lower compared to start-ups and Type 1 manufacturing companies.

Identification of Coronavirus in the winter of 2019 and, consequently, outbreak of Covid-19 disease, led to beginning of a crisis in the country that affects various aspects of population in some areas such as health, education and training. In such situation, the vulnerability of households was not the same at different economic levels. In order to investigate the impacts of Covid-19 disease epidemic on the life dimensions of households at different economic levels of country, in this paper, the "socio-economic, demographic and mental health impacts of Covid-19" survey data have been used. This national survey was conducted in 2020 by Statistics Research and Training Center (SRTC) of Iran as a sample survey. In this paper, linking the survey data with household expenditure and income survey data in 2019 and 2018, and calculating estimates for the sub-populations of deciles using sampling design, significant results were obtained by economic level of households. The results show that the effects of prevalence of Covid 19 disease and its constraints in the population have often affected households in the lower economic deciles more than other households. Although the prevalence of the disease in economic deciles, especially in urban areas, has been increasing, but the needs and adverse effects of the disease in households of lower economic deciles have been more than other households.

The present study represents an attempt to examine the main macro determinants of stock prices in OPEC oil exporting and importing countries in the study period 1996 to 2016 using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The oil importers in this study are the United States, Britain and Japan, and three countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have been selected as oil exporters. The findings of this study are that to predict and evaluate the stock price index for oil-importing countries, the three variables of exchange rate index, consumer price index and economic growth should be given more importance than other variables, while for oil-exporting countries, The three variables of broad money growth, exchange rate and import are the most important variables that should be considered. For oil-importing countries, among the macro variables studied, OPEC oil prices have a completely negative relationship with the stock price index of those countries, but in oil-importing countries, the gold price has a completely inverse relationship with the stock price index.

Interaction between money market and capital market is one of the important issues in Iran’s economy especially during recent years. One of the instruments of money market is real interest rate by which the Central Bank performs expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. Considering the currents during two recent years in capital market and money market and the effort of monetary investors to reinforce capital market by means of f money market, this study also investigates the effect of monetary policy on the efficiency of stock market. Therefore, Markov-Switching Model and quarterly data of Iran’s economy during 2009q1 to 2021q2 have been used. The results revealed that the efficiency of stock market has reacted to real interest rate in every regime with different degrees and in both regimes there was a negative relationship between real interest rate and the efficiency of stock market which signals investors to reduce efficiency rate of money market or real interest rate to reinforce capital market.

Considering the high and important role of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in the process of approving the budget of the whole country and monitoring its implementation, the purpose of this study is to design and explain the pattern of requirements for the oversight role of the Assembly in the annual budget. In terms of research purpose, the present study is an exploratory research. Also, the method of this research is exploratory mixed type. For categorizing and analyzing qualitative data, thematic analysis research method was used and for quantitative data, fuzzy Dimatel methods and fuzzy hierarchical analysis method were used. This study presented the developed model of effective parliamentary oversight of the budget based on three comprehensive themes of "prudent legislation", "smart oversight" and "conscious environment" with a completely practical view. At the level of organizing themes, 13 themes were identified and at the level of basic themes, 42 themes were identified. The most influential factors on the realization of the parliament's oversight role over the budget are "efficient budget law enactment", "performance transparency", and "budget policy". The budgeting process is defined as one of the interdisciplinary topics of humanities in order to pay attention to economic, political, legal and public administration concepts from the perspective of public policy. The results of this study can help the parliament's effective oversight of the annual budget at the practical (not just research) level. In this regard, practical proposals were presented to enhance the oversight role of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in the annual budget of the country.

The present study examines and identifies the effects of efficiency and financial risk, including credit risks, operational risk, liquidity risk, financial wealth risk on the performance of insurance companies. In fact, the question is whether there is a significant relationship between the types of financial risks and performance with performance. The statistical sample data of the research includes 13 insurance companies listed on the stock exchange (Tehran) during the years 1392-1392. First, the research variables were calculated using Excell software and then the data was analyzed in a panel using Eviews and Stata software. . In the analysis of research questions, the results showed that there is a significant relationship between performance and credit risks, liquidity, operations and financial wealth. Risk and internal controls are in line with the establishment of corporate governance and accountability to stakeholders, and an appropriate governance structure is a prerequisite for an efficient system of risk management and financial wealth. The results also showed that the relationship between efficiency and the type of performance is appropriate, meaningful and direct, so the existence of a comprehensive performance appraisal system for the organization to be aware of its performance and achievements is necessary to identify the gap between performance and goals. Take action at the most appropriate time possible.