پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران
پیاپی 38 (بهار 1400)

More than 113 years have passed since the gradual formation of "oil-gas Iran" since the drilling rig in the number one well of Masjed-e-Soliman reached oil on May 25, 1908. The fact is that during this period, on the one hand, the wealth and income of natural oil and gas resources were not necessarily "fairly" distributed among all Iranians who are the main owners of these resources; on the contrary, in many cases, they have been distributed among the influential groups in the form of unjust government rents, and on the other hand, these resources have not been used as they should be in the service of the country's economic growth. Given these two facts, the two main problems of this research are: 1) Based on which value theory can the wealth and income of oil and gas resources be more fairly distributed among all Iranians? 2) How can such a fairer distribution be used to achieve high and sustainable economic growth? The research method is that by examining the basic features of common support schemes and reviewing the value bases of such schemes in the form of several theories of justice and with the pathology of those schemes, the implementation of a basic income plan (UBI) which is financed mainly through wealth and revenue from oil and gas resources, defended as a fairer and more efficient plan than current support schemes. In the following, the different methods of financing this project and the mechanisms of its impact on economic growth are examined. Finally, it is argued that during a virtuous circle, on the one hand, a "universal basic income institution" in addition to eradicating poverty, can lead to high and sustainable economic growth, and on the other hand, how this economic growth can continuously increase the amount of UBI for the current generation and future generations.

Today, energy demand has increased as a result of population growth around the world. Due to the limited fossil energy resources and the problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions, it is necessary to pay more attention to renewable energy, because in this way, the goals of sustainable development can be achieved. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to properly evaluate the performance of renewable energy technologies and also to investigate the relationship between renewable energy, carbon dioxide emissions, and sustainable development in Iran and compare it with non-renewable energy. In order to rank renewable energy carriers and identify the best type of them for electricity generation in Iran, a multi-criteria decision model has been used. In this regard, by conducting library studies and collecting the opinions of experts, a set of criteria in the form of four technical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions has been determined. Then, using the VIKOR approach, renewable energies consisting of wind, hydropower, solar, biomass, and geothermal energies are discussed. Findings indicate a high priority of wind energy and solar, hydropower, geothermal and biomass are in the next ranks. The results indicate that the effect of positive momentum on the share of renewable and non-renewable energy on sustainable development in Iran is positive.

Given the importance of oil prices, proper prediction of the OPEC Reference Basket can have an essential role in the immunization of economies in these countries against the effects of these fluctuations. This research is an effort to introduce an optimal model for modeling and predicting the fluctuations in OPEC crude oil prices. In this regard, we used data of daily oil prices between 2/1/1986 and 13/2/2017. According to this, the existence of long-term memory in the average equations and variance of crude oil prices were assessed and modeled and the result of the ARFIMA, confirms the existence of long-term memory in both the average equation and series variance. However, tests confirm non-linear and exponential behavior in crude oil prices. For this reason, results are specifically based on the information criteria and also MAPE and indicate the selection of a mixed model of partial augmented average movement and the model of conditional exponential Heteroscedasticity EGARCH (1,1) AFIRMA (4,0.09,3) as the best model for modeling and predicting the OPEC crude oil fluctuations in prices and lack of attention to exponential non-linear variance in the long term memory of crude oil prices can cause an error in the calculation of analysts and especially economic decision maker and deviation optimal policies.

Due to the problems and limitations of using fossil energy sources, the use of biofuels in order to achieve the goals of sustainable development, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, regional development, and security of energy supply, has received more attention. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue, in the present study, while determining the effective factors on the tendency of farmers to accept the supply of crop residues of wheat and barley products for bioenergy production, the economic value of residues of selected products in biogas and bioethanol energy production is estimated. Accordingly, using a survey approach and by completing a questionnaire by farmers in Boroujerd in 1399, data collection and research hypotheses were tested using the logit regression model. The results of the study indicate that the variables of collection cost (with a final effect of -0.097 and elasticity of -7.39%), non-agricultural income (with a final effect of -0.028 and elasticity of -6.37%), and use from residues (with a final effect of -0.014 and a tensile strength of -11.6%) have a negative effect on the supply of agricultural residues for bioenergy production. Meanwhile, education (with a final effect of 0.09 and elasticity of 4.4%) and farmer experience (with a final effect of 0.022 and elasticity of 17.32%) have a positive effect on the supply of agricultural residues for bioenergy production. According to the results of traction, farmers' experience and farmers' use of agricultural residues have the greatest effect on the supply of agricultural residues in bioenergy production. The results also show that the annual production potential of bioethanol from wheat and barley residues is equal to 63.96 million liters. So that if the same residues are used in biogas production, the annual biogas production potential is equal to 88.98 million cubic meters. Accordingly, the economic value of bioethanol and biogas energy production from wheat and barley residues in the study area has been calculated equal to 15349 and 430 billion rials, respectively. Therefore, based on the results, by planning for the principled management of agricultural residues and investing in the use of biomass as clean sources for bioenergy production, effective measures can be taken to reduce the dependence of the country's economy on fossil energy and provide the energy needs of people in remote areas.

The extant study was conducted to examine the economic effects of an oil supply shock, assess the response of Iran's GDP[1] to oil supply shocks specific to the main oil exporting countries, and oil-based Global Vector Autoregression Model (GVAR-Oil) throughout 1976Q2-2016Q4 covering 27 country-region cases. The consequences caused by the positive oil supply shock of the USA included an actual increase in the GDP of oil-importing countries in both developed and emerging markets, an inflation decline in most countries, and rising stock prices worldwide. In particular, Iran-specific oil-supply shock had a minor impact on the global economy because of the increase in the oil production rate of Saudi Arabia. In contrast, a negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia led to an instant and permanent rise in oil prices. According to countries' vulnerability findings, the economies of Saudi Arabia and Iran were more influenced by negative oil supply shocks compared to Indonesia and Norway. The present study indicated that Saudi Arabia-specific negative oil supply shock had a different effect than other major oil-exporting countries.

The aim of this study was to estimate the nonlinear effect of oil, gas, electricity, and coal energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in ten energy-intensive countries (Iran, South Korea, Japan, Germany-Russia-USA-India-Canada-Brazil and China) in the world. Statistics and information used to estimate the nonlinear autoregressive panel model with distributed intervals (PANEL NARDL) have been extracted from the database of the World Bank and the World Energy Organization for the period 1985-2019. The results show that increased consumption of gas, electricity, coal, and oil leads to increased carbon dioxide emissions, while a decrease in their consumption reduces carbon dioxide emissions in the long run. Also, the nonlinear relationship between the per capita of consumption of these four types of energy and the emission of carbon dioxide in high-consumption countries was confirmed by the parent test in the long run. Therefore, reducing the use of fossil fuels and shifting the focus to clean and renewable energy consumption is proposed for the five selected countries, especially Iran, and economic policymakers should prioritize environmental protection by enacting applicable laws. In this way, the creation and development of intelligent infrastructure for the carbon economy and industry are essential.