فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال نهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 33، تابستان 1401)

Monitoring and evaluating social welfare is one of the most important issues for policymakers in many countries, including developing countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of natural resource rents and good governance on the welfare of developing countries. To achieve the purpose of the study, from the econometric method of quantile panel data with fixed effects, the relationships of variables in different quantiles during the period 2007-2018 have been estimated. The results showed that the effect of natural resource rents on welfare in all quantiles is negative and significant so this effect is more pronounced in developing countries with low welfare. In other words, the existence of the phenomenon of the welfare curse in developing countries is confirmed. The results also showed that the effect of good governance in different quantiles is positive and significant. So good governance can increase prosperity in developing countries. Also, according to the results, other variables such as Urban population, employment rate, and environmental performance index in different quantiles have a positive and significant effect on welfare. In addition, the effect of gross capital formation on welfare is positive and significant In all quantiles except the fifth and sixth quantiles.

The purpose of this study is to estimate and calculate the liquidity of Tehran Stock Exchange in monthly intervals using a new method to be able to calculate and compare the liquidity of this market in different intervals with the least error. Liquidity of a stock means it is possible for a quick sale. In other word, whatever the shares could be sold faster and at lower costs, liquidity of shares is greater. So the study on liquidity has increased in recent years. In this study we estimated and compared the monthly stock liquidity in Tehran Stock Exchange. The results and liquidity calculation with excess return and Panel Data model by over 2 milions observation shows that from 1387 until the end of 1400 the liquidity level increased in the stock exchange, so that the least amount of liquidity is for the years 1388 and the highest liquidity amount is for the year 1398. According to our calculations, for every one billion rials buying in the market has been created about 0.01% of the excess return (additional cost). In other words, Due to the increased liquidity in the Tehran Stock Exchange, investment environment for investors has improved.

The currency crisis is a phenomenon that has been widespread in recent years in Iran's economic and political meetings. Regardless of the political effects of this phenomenon, the occurrence of the currency crisis with increasing uncertainty will lead to undesirable effects on the economic structure of the country. The conversion of assets into foreign currency, capital outflows and the dollarization of the economy is only part of the consequences of the currency crisis. Therefore, in this study, using the quarterly data from spring 2002 to winter 2017 and using the Markov switching model, the currency crisis in Iran has been modeled. Then, based on the estimated coefficients of the model, the Currency Market Pressure Index during the spring of 2018 to the fall of 2021 has been predicted. Evidence from model estimation showed that economic growth, current account balance, capital account balance, real interest rate and long-term foreign debt have a negative effect and budget deficit, risk aversion level, foreign exchange rent and short-term foreign debt have a positive and significant effect on on the likelihood of a currency crisis in Iran. The estimation model also has a relatively good out-of-sample predictions.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of indirect monetary policy instruments such as legal reserve and open market operations (repurchase agreement) on financial and economic stability of Iran under two different scenarios. For this purpose, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model have been designed in view of the realities of the Iranian economy. After determining the input values ​​ofthe model and estimating the parameters by using quarterly data of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2020 by the Bayesian estimation method, the results of model variables simulation indicate the validity of the model in describing the fluctuations of the Iran's economy. Examining the dynamics of the model shows that both of the decreasing the ratio of legal deposits momentum and the repurchase of bonds reduce inflation, but the output boom through the multiplier channel is relatively higher than the monetary base. In addition, the final result of reducing the legal reserve ratio over the most real and financial sector variables is longer and larger than the repurchase agreement policy. This makes it even more important to pay more attention to how the legal reserve ratio is determined in the country.

The purpose of this article is the effects of exchange rate passage with emphasis on the inflationary environment of Iran's economy and the central bank's authority to control the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the STAR model based on quarterly data of Iranian economy during the period 2001:03 to 2019:04 was used. The results of estimating the linear part of the model (first regime) show that the variables of GDP, interest rate on facilities and money supply have a positive relationship with the price index in the Iranian economy. Also, the results of estimating the nonlinear part of the model (second regime) show the positive relationship between the variables of money supply, interest rate on facilities and exchange rate with the price index. The difference between the coefficients of the variables in the two regimes indicates that the effect of exchange rate variables and GDP growth on the price index in each regime is different. In the case of a low exchange rate (linear regime), economic growth has a positive effect on the price index and with an increase in the exchange rate, the price index will decrease; While in the high exchange rate regime (non-linear regime), the impact of economic growth on the price index is negative and an increase in the exchange rate will increase the price index. According to the results of artificial pricing, the exchange rate in the years before the crisis and preventing it from adjusting to the economic conditions is one of the main reasons for the currency crisis. Therefore, it is suggested that in order to reduce the pressure on the foreign exchange market, in proportion to the difference between Iran's inflation and global inflation, the official exchange rate should be adjusted annually to prevent currency shocks.

Many economists agree that monetary policy affects the real sector of the economy in the short term, but their disagreement is over the channels of influence and their relative importance. The research's main purpose was to identify the most important mechanism of monetary policy transmission in the Iranian economy with the dynamic model averaging approach.Thirty-four variables affecting monetary policy transmission through the neoclassical channel and twenty-two variables affecting the monetary transmission mechanism in the non-neoclassical model were entered into the model. According to the results, the neoclassical channel has a higher share in the monetary mechanism transmission system than the non-neoclassical channel.According to the results, the most important channels of monetary policy transmission in the Iranian economy are the effective real exchange rate variables, free-market interest rate, informal exchange rate deviation from the formal, total stock index growth rate, land price index in Tehran, the volume of money, total debt to the banking system and the growth rate are credits granted to the private sector.According to the results, total debt to the banking system, free-market interest rate and informal exchange rate deviation from the formal had a negative effect on economic growth and other variables had a positive effect on economic growth.

Tax is not only a means of financing government expenditures, but also plays a key role in justice promotion and equitable distribution of income in society. Therefore, planning for tax collection and replacing tax revenues with oil revenues is one of the most important pillars of economic and social development. In this regard, the main goal of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of determinant factors of tax revenue in Iranian provinces. For this purpose, using the data of 31 provinces during the period 2011-2019, the tax ratio model has been estimated by spatial panel approach. The results show that there are spatial effects in the tax ratio model. Moreover, the results of the SEM model show a positive and significant relationship between gini coefficient, urbanization rate, share of the industrial sector in GDP, per capita income and literacy rate with the tax ratio. On the other hand, inflation rate also has a significant negative effect on the tax ratio.

The aim of this paper is examining appropriate structures in order to achieve the objectives of monetary and fiscal policy in the Iranian economy. The behavior of monetary and fiscal policymakers was derived using dynamic optimization and game theory techniques trough defining objective functions and policy makers’ constraints under two basic policy making approaches: commitment and discretionary. findings showed that,Regardless of committed or discretionary policymaking approach, fiscal policy has procyclical behavio. findings showed that, the hypothesis that oil revenues are only reason of fiscal dominance in Iranian economy is rejected and policy maker s commitment is necessary condition and fiscal discipline is sufficient condition for independence of monetary policy.

The objective of this article is to investigate the impact of financial development on the balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission. For this purpose, first, using data (2007-2018) related to 50 non-financial firms in the Tehran Stock Exchange, the existence of the balance sheet channel in Iran through Analyzing the effect of the financial and balance sheet situation of firms on their investment was examined.Therefore, using GMM method, an investment function is estimated, despite financial constraints. The results supported the balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission in Iran. In addition, the effect of financial development on the balance sheet channel by testing the effect of interaction of financial development on balance sheet situation was examined. The results of the model estimate showed that financial development increased the investment of firms by reducing financial constraints, which means weakening the balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission. The results also showed that financial development affected the investment of small firms that were facing more financial constraints compared to larger firms.

The rapid changes in the economic and social structure experienced by households during the economic transition prevent the generalization of a single model for the household’s distribution of household expenditures and incomes in developed countries. Therefore, the goal of this study is to estimate the revenue and consumption life cycle indices in Iran during the years 2001 to 1399. Based on the results, the age-profile indices show a hump-shaped pattern. Because the spending smoothing behavior distributes definitive sources of inequality evenly throughout the life cycle, it has a smoother age profile than income. More educated households with higher income levels and expenses have higher income growth rates for a longer period of time. Slow increase in consumption inequality relative to income indicates that most permanent changes in income have been predictable for individuals. Also, according to the permanent income hypothesis and the findings of other economies, consumption inequality has increased for households over 30 years old. This result is consistent with incomplete market life cycle models in which variance is a constant component for all early in life cycle is small, and increases over time due to the accumulation of certain permanent shocks. Finally, estimates of the income process show that although permanent income shocks are the same for all households, in without an academic degree group, past incomes have a greater effect on current incomes, and this group suffers larger transient income shocks.