فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 48 (پاییز 1401)

Trade liberalization, both directly and indirectly (through structural changes), affects the total factor productivity. The key factor in determining the direction of this impact is the quality of institutions. In this study, to consider the most important aspects of structural change, we propose a multidimensional index for structural change using the principal component method and then applying the Bayesian averaging method (IVBMA) econometrics model evaluate the effect of trade liberalization, structural changes, and the quality of institutions on total factor productivity in a subsample of 64 countries. our IVBMA results indicate that structural change, business freedom, and resources rents are the most important variables in explaining the observed differences in the total factor productivity index. Structural change with a posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of 0.74 Is the most important independent variable to explain the observed differences in the level of total factor productivity. Increasing the multidimensional index of structural change with a posterior coefficient of 0.14 has a negative effect on total factor productivity. An increase in business freedom index and resources rents leads to 0.39 and 0.22 increase in total factor productivity index. Trade liberalization with a posterior inclusion probability of 0.45 had a positive effect on total factor productivity. Granger causality test also shows that trade liberalization is the cause of structural change; Therefore, trade liberalization in this study has caused structural changes that reduce productivity.

In significant part of oil-exporting countries, oil revenues are considered as one of the main drivers of the economy. However, these revenues are volatile, uncertain and subject to shocks due to exogenous nature and inherent volatility of oil prices as well as the reality of the hydrocarbon resources’ depletion. On the other hand, oil revenues are independent of the domestic economy as they are mainly derived from exports. This indicate that a significant part of the economy in these countries is exposed to potential instability, depending on the way and quality of these revenues’ management. This article examines the effect of oil revenue shocks on volatility of five macroeconomic variables, i.e. economic growth rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate, liquidity and government size, using panel var from selected oil-exporting countries over the period 2000-2019. The results show that oil instability shocks led to increase in instability of government size, liquidity and exchange rate. In addition, it first increase instability of inflation rate and economic growth rate but subsequently decrease these tow variables’ instability.

In the literature of political macroeconomics stresses role of political competition in the economic performance of countries; Political competition can influence economic growth by affecting resources allocation and quality of economic policies. This paper examines the effect of political competition on economic performance in Iran in the framework of a dynamic growth model by Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent estimators (HAC) method over the period 1364 to 1397. In this regard, we use the degree of alignment of government and parliament, power balance, power distribution, political and economic freedom and a composite index as the determinants of political competition. The results of estimates confirm the hypothesis of non-linear effect of political competition on economic growth in the Iranian economy as U-shape relationship such as at first the higher levels of political completion tend to be associated to smaller real GDP per capita, but after the optimal value (minimum political competition), production will increase. In this step, the actors of political system, by accepting the rules of political competition and avoiding factional policies focuses policies, focus policies that promote economic growth. This situation, which is known as the learning of political competition, enjoys society the benefits of competition political parties. The findings of this research supports the importance of political competition as one of the sources of economic growth.

The aim of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of exchange rate on Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP). Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through exchange rate, in this study, the effects of positive and negative exchange rate shocks on Iran's GDP in the short and long term with nonlinear distributed autoregressive lags (NARDL) have been investigated in the period of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 2018 and the "Shine et al" model is the main basis of the research. For this purpose, using explanatory variables of liquidity volume, exchange rate, degree of openness of economy, gross domestic capital stock, labor and oil prices, through band test confirms the existence of a long-term asymmetric equilibrium relationship and also confirms the results of asymmetric relationship between real exchange rate and GDP. In the short term, the decrease in real exchange rate leads to an increase in GDP and an increase in the exchange rate has negative and significant effects on GDP, and in the long run, the severity of negative shocks has been more than positive shocks, this effect has been positive and asymmetric.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the export function of Iranian agricultural products to neighboring countries. In order to achieve the objectives of the research we have employed an export function model inspired by Yan and Lee article and studied the effect of GDP variables, price ratios and exchange rates on Iran's agricultural exports. The data used here for the estimation of the research model were for the period 2008-2019 and have been processed via the econometric approach and the panel data method.According to the research findings, the effect of increasing GDP of neighboring countries on the export of Iranian agricultural products has been positive and significant. On the contrary, the price ratio and exchange rate ratio between Iran and neighboring countries turned out to have negative and significant influence on the export of Iranian agricultural products. These imply that growth in GDP of neighboring countries has increased the export of Iranian agricultural products to these countries while increasing the ratio of domestic prices to the prices of neighboring countries and increasing the domestic exchange rate relative to the exchange rate of neighboring countries have reduced the export of Iranian agricultural products.

Growing demand for energy leads to economic growth and at the same time increases pollution and environmental degradation. Given the importance of economic growth and the environment, it is important for policymakers and economists to understand how energy variables and pollution affect the economic growth of countries. According to this, the present study investigated the effects of fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices on economic growth during the period 2000-2019 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). For analysis, the Pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) methods have been used and the countries studied in the study, in addition to the regional study of MENA, are divided into two subgroups, including countries exporting and importing crude oil. The results of PMG estimation show that a one percent increase in fossil fuel energy consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices increased economic growth by 0.183, 0.013 and 0.058 percent for the crude oil exporting countries, respectively, while increasing by one percent. Crude oil prices in the short and long term will reduce the economic growth in the countries importing crude oil by 0.0260 and 0.409% respectively. The estimation results of DOLS method are similar to the results of PMG method and confirm it and indicate that the research has sufficient strength.

The present study seeks to examine the performance of Iran's macroeconomic indicators during the six economic development plans in order to compare and rank the achievements of the plans. Based on a fundamental revision of the 2010 United Nations Human Development Report (until 2019) and Guidelines on producing composite indicators (CIs) of United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (2019), CIs Method (by designing 6 dimensions of development in the form of 24 variables from internal and external sources) has been used. The results of the study show that the first to fourth plans have been on the way to recovery, but the intensification of comprehensive US sanctions and in line with the currency war against Iran, the occurrence of sanctions against the Central Bank and sanctions on the purchase of oil from Iran in February 2012 (the first year of the Fifth Plan), has significantly reduced the National Socio-Economic Development Index (NSED) in 2012-13, so that the average of this index for the fifth plan is lower than the average of the first plan. Managing the conditions of sanctions and the regular implementation of the resistance economy strategy during the early Sixth Plan has strengthened this index, but the Corona Crisis Management can determine the more realistic position of the Sixth Plan. According to the results of Sensitivity Analysis, the fourth and third plans have been distinguished as the most successful development plans as well as the fifth and first plans with the weakest performance.