نشریه تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
سال نهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1401)

New approaches of crisis management have changed from the concepts of vulnerability to resilience and emphasize on strengthening the system's ability to deal with the risks of natural disasters. Therfore, the aim of this study was identifying the watershed capabilities of Qarahshiran and crisis management planning with emphasis on environmental resilience.

The SOAR analytical technique and expert opinions of 52 experts were used to formulate the strategy, determine the strengths, opportunities, ideals and measurable results. The results of SOAR technique and crisis management prevention and preparedness strategies were compared with the environmental resilience of the field.

Based on the results, reducing direct and indirect flood damage with 51.9% and low amount of soil erosion and water loss with 42.3%, were the most important results of the SOAR model. Out of 15 components of environmental resilience, the performance of 5 components was accepted as significant (α<0.05 confidence level). The evaluation of environmental resilience using one-sample t-test showed that the environmental dimension of resilience (2.67) with a significant level (α=0.003) has a significant that indicates high vulnerability and low resilience.

Considering site selection of watershed management structures, creating more opportunities and using the private sector potentials, and local NGOs will be useful in crisis management. Analysis of watershed resilience components in achieving integrated watershed management, proper knowledge of watershed function, possibility of self-regulation and recovery of balance and acceptance of adaptation to natural hazards, co-design of watershed residents, preparedness and coping with crisis can be more effective over the study area.

This study evaluates the ability of different quantitative mapping (QM) methods as a bias correction technique for ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data. Climate type and geographical location can affect the performance of the bias correction method due to differences in precipitation characteristics. For this purpose, ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data for the years 1989-2019 for 10 selected synoptic stations in climates with different topographic characteristics were received daily from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) website. Bias correction of these data was performed using 5 quantitative mapping methods based on observational data in R software environment. Two-part evaluation and Taylor diagram were used to compare the performance of different methods. The results showed that the performance of the quantification mapping method depends on the performance functions, set of parameters and climatic conditions. In general, non-parametric methods of multiple mapping have better performance than parametric methods, so that the best performance is related to QUANT and RQUANT methods, among which DIST method has the weakest performance.

Increasing consumption of fossil fuels in urban areas emits enormous amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Therefore, the study of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from urban areas has become an important research topic. The main purpose of this study is space-based quantification of carbon dioxide emissions driving from fossil fuel combustion in different source sectors in Isfahan. To achieve it, in the present study, the "bottom-up" method was used to quantify the carbon dioxide gas emission based on its production sources sectors. In this method, the amount of emission was measured distinctly for different sources of energy consumption and consequently the spatial distribution map the CO2 emission was generated. The results of this study revealed that the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions driving from fossil fuels is 13855525 tons per year in Isfahan. Separately stationary sectors of power plant, housing and commercial and mobile sources including road and railroad and existing agricultural machinery were responsible for emitting 50.61, 21.78, 17.18, 4.92, 4.37, and 1.14% of CO2, respectively. In conclusion, through applying the bottom-up method and CO2 emission distribution mapping based on different source sectors, mitigation measures can be applied more efficiently in urban planning.

Land use and vegetation changes directly lead to changes in the hydrological regime, especially runoff coefficient and maximum instantaneous discharge changes. Much of the land use change has occurred due to residential development, which has led to a decrease in residential and rangeland lands and agricultural lands in the northern regions of the country; This has led to an increased risk of flooding in these areas and downstream urban areas. Cheshmeh Killeh basin as one of the catchments in the north of the country in the last decade has witnessed the occurrence of various floods; Therefore, in this study, by extracting the hydrological response units of Cheshmeh Killeh catchment in order to identify changes in vegetation and land use of these units and the effect of these changes on the hydrological behavior of the basin, the runoff coefficient is one of these behaviors in this period of 29 years (1991-2018). paid. Therefore, in this research, hydrological response units have been identified and extracted as a working unit to determine the runoff production potential of Cheshmeh Killeh catchment. In order to monitor changes in density and vegetation cover using satellite images of the study area in 1991 and 2018, the normalized plant difference index was used; Then, by combining the layers of hydrological groups and land use, the amount of curve number was determined for each of the hydrological response units. According to the values ​​of the obtained curve number for each hydrological response unit, the amount of soil moisture holding capacity was extracted. Finally, by calculating the average monthly values, the amount of runoff from rainfall for 1991 and 2018 was estimated. The results of the study indicate a decrease in the amount and density of vegetation, an increase in the number of curves, a decrease in soil permeability and also an increase in runoff height during a period of 29 years (1991-2018) in Cheshmeh Killeh catchment (especially the northern parts of the catchment); In other words, settlement development, land use change and weakening of vegetation have intensified flooding in the basin; Therefore, it is necessary to carry out watershed management operations upstream to increase permeability.

Climate or climate reflects the daily weather conditions in a particular place for a long time. Most climatic elements are closely related to ecological factors, which is why the analysis of the relationship between climate and plant distribution patterns has been discussed in scientific and research circles for many years. And in recent years, scientists have been using a combination of climatic characteristics with other environmental factors to describe vegetation around the world. Climate change and atmosphere condition will change the content and composition of many plant communities.

The Study Area:

The geographic coordinates of the studied area are between latitudes 29°32’ to 33°59’ and 51°27’ to 55°5’. The position of the selected provinces of central Iran compared to the neighboring provinces are shown in Figure 1 The annual data of 8 stations have been analyzed during the stations period determined by the National Meteorological Organization. The stations characteristics including latitude, longitude, elevation and specific statistical period are shown in Table 3.

In this study, the role of temperature changes and relative humidity on vegetation in Central Iran has been investigated using statistical models of analysis of the main components and hierarchical clustering. This research is applied and its method is slightly analytical. In order to investigate the climatic fluctuations of the center of Iran with respect to urban green space, statistical data related to average temperature and relative humidity during the 32-year period (1986 to 2018) selected central stations of Iran to come and statistical deficiencies such as Data loss was performed by reconstructing differential equations using SPSS software. The criterion for selecting stations is the availability of long-term statistics. Using statistical methods and Geographic Information System (GIS), vegetation classification was performed for Central Iran. ArcGIS, Minitab, SPSS and EXCEL software are used in this research. After identifying the stations, climatic variables including temperature and relative humidity were selected from the data of 8 meteorological stations and were analyzed using the techniques mentioned above. Then, using statistical regression analysis, the impact (topography, average temperature and average relative humidity) on how to distribute and distribute vegetation was investigated. Kendall-man non parametric test was used to investigate changes in the vegetation index trend.

Analysis of temporal changes in climatic parameters and NDVI index The results show that the distribution of relative humidity in Abadeh and Kerman stations has decreased by 3% and the temperature distribution in these stations has increased by more than one percent. Relative humidity changes in Kashan and Sirjan stations have a weak decreasing trend, while the relative humidity distribution in Isfahan station has decreased by about 2%.The temperature distribution of Shiraz and Yazd stations increased by 3%, Abadeh station increased by 2% and also Isfahan and Kerman stations increased by 1%. The distribution of vegetation in Yazd and Khor Biyabank stations has decreased by one percent, while the growth of vegetation in Isfahan, Abadeh and Sirjan stations is increasing by less than one percent.Distribution of NDVI vegetation index in Central Iran using cluster analysis The stations are located in three distinct areas in terms of distribution of vegetation, each group having the same climatic characteristics in the distribution of similar vegetation. Based on this, three climatic zones in the study area can be identified.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of climatic parameters (average temperature and relative humidity) on the distribution of vegetation in Central Iran using comparison of statistical models; by examining the distribution and density of vegetation, eight factors were identified. Among the factors, the first and second factors, with 81.57% of the total vegetation variance, have played the most important role in determining the climatic diversity of Central Iran. In total, these eight factors have justified about 100% of the vegetation behavior in the area Also, according to the analysis of images of Modis satellite measuring satellites from the vegetation situation in the last 5 years, Central Iran, the value of NDVI index in Central Iran varies between 0.2 to 0.64, the northwestern parts of Fars province have the highest vegetation density and The central parts of Isfahan, especially Yazd, lack vegetation. Based on the results, altitude has a direct and significant relationship with temperature distribution in plants, especially in the study area. However, the height of Iran's central regions has affected the distribution of vegetation.

Decay and drought of oak has occurred in more than 40 countries, including Iran. Numerous factors have contributed to the drought and oak decay. Among the natural causes of climate change is common in all countries, but dust has played an important role as a contributing factor to the decline of the Zagros forests, which are adjacent to and the passage of dust currents. In this study, with the aim of investigating the occurrence of dust and its direction in Zagros deterioration monitoring sites in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, meteorological statistics and data of the nearest synoptic station were used. Dust event codes were extracted from 100 phenomenon codes (0-99) and the frequency of dust events with different horizontal field of view was investigated. In order to identify the direction of dust entry, the graph diagram was used and to draw the dust, WR-PLOT software was used. Data related to wind direction and speed were extracted and wind direction and speed corresponding to dust days were extracted to enter the dust drawing software and converted to a special format of this software. HYSPLIT simulation model was used to identify the source of incoming dust sources in the area of deterioration monitoring sites. The results showed that the occurrence of dust in decay monitoring sites has an increasing trend and the path of dust entering the decay sites from the west and southwest and northwest have been important, respectively. And being in the path of incoming atmospheric currents has been affected by dust mites inside and outside the country. Tracing the origin of dust particles at three altitudes of 1000, 500 and 1500 meters showed that the most important sources of dust entering the region are from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which has been strengthened by passing through the centers of domestic dust in Khuzestan province. Considering that the occurrence of dust and its entry path can be one of the factors contributing to the decline of Zagros oak trees and the extent of its effects is different in the south-north and west-east slopes, help decision makers and planners of forest ecosystems. At the macro level, with the control programs of domestic centers and international cooperation with neighboring countries to make fruitful and fruitful efforts to preserve and rehabilitate forests.

The term modern social movements is used to describe movements that were active in France in the late 1960s through collective action in the social sphere. The most important new social movements are the civil rights movement, the women's movement, the peace movement and the environmental movement. The rapid growth of industrial and capitalist societies, regardless of environmental degradation, has created many problems. The most important problems are soil erosion, resource reduction, ozone depletion, greenhouse effects, extinction of animal and plant species and various types of soil and climate pollution. The combination of these factors has provided the basis for the formation and activation of environmental movements. The present paper tries to answer the question of how emerging environmental movements can be analyzed in the form of new social movements? And what are their effects on new social movements? Therefore, with the qualitative interpretive method, and the method of case studies, it examines the nature and why of emerging environmental movements. The research findings show that environmental crises and the need to solve environmental problems that have become a pervasive and global crisis, have provided the basis for the formation, activity and impact of emerging environmental movements. Therefore, in order to deal with the existing crises, emerging environmental movements first informed and increased public awareness, and then created pro-environmental organizations and groups, and finally, by entering In the field of politics, and using new tools and methods, they have expressed their demands and protests in a peaceful and non-violent way, in order to force governments to respond and finally enter directly into The field of politics as influential groups and political parties in the field of public policy. As a result, the volume and scope of social power and the political influence of emerging environmental movements have led to the revitalization and enrichment of new social movements; in a way that today they can be identified and analyzed as powerful social forces and influential actors in the field of political sociology.

Human interventions in natural areas as a change in land use have led to a domino effect of anomalies and then environmental hazards. These extensive and cumulative changes in land cover and land use have manifested themselves in the form of anomalies such as the formation of severe runoff, soil erosion, the spread of desertification, and salinization of the soil. The main purpose of this study is to reveal the temperature inductions of the land cover structure of Lorestan province and to analyze the effect of land use changes on the temperature structure of the province. In this regard, the data of land cover classes of MCD12Q2 composite product and ground temperature of MOD11A2 product of MODIS sensor were used. Also, in order to detect the temperature inductions of each land cover during the hot and cold seasons, cross-analysis matrix (CTM) technique was used. The results showed that in general in Lorestan province 5 cover classes including: forest lands, pastures, agricultural lands, constructed lands and barren lands could be detected. The results of cross-matrix analysis showed that in hot and cold seasons, forest cover (IGBP code 5) with a temperature of 48 ° C and urban and residential land cover (IGBP code 13) with a temperature of 16 ° C as the hottest land use, respectively. They count. In addition, it was observed that the thermal inductions of land cover in the warm season are minimized and there is no significant difference between the temperature structure of land cover classes; But in the cold season, the thermal impulses of land cover are more pronounced. The results of analysis of variance test showed that in the cold period of the year, unlike the warm period of the year, different land cover classes; Significantly (Sig = 0.026) has created different thermal impressions in the province. Scheffe's post hoc analysis indicated that this was the difference between rangeland cover classes and billet up cover.                                                                                                              

materials and Method:                                                                                                                 

 In this study, to reveal the relationship between land cover levels and different land use classes, cross-information matrix analysis was used in the ARC-GIS software platform. Since one of the main objectives of the study was to investigate and reveal the albedo inductions of land cover classes in Lorestan province, so the relationship between these two factors was investigated by cross-matrix analysis technique. In this regard, two sets of data were used. The first set of data was related to land cover classes of MODIS sensor composite product with a spatial resolution of 1 km and hierarchical data format (MCD 12(Q2 (MCD product) which was obtained from the database of this sensor

 Land cover classes or perhaps it can be said that land use is one of the most important shapers and determinants of climate near the earth. In this study, it was observed that in general, 5 major land cover classes in the province are separable, among which rangeland and forest lands account for 85% of the total land cover of the province. On the other hand, it was seen in this study that the average spatial albedo of the province in spring, autumn and winter is about 0.2, which is very close to the global value of this component, but in winter the average value of this index in the province reaches 0.3, which can be increased Shows attention. The five land cover classes in the province had their own unique albido induction in winter, which was separable and distinct from each other, but in spring, summer and autumn, no significant distinction of albido induction of these land cover was revealed. 

The wind is a quantitative vector that moves from high-pressure centers to low-pressure centers and is measured by two factors, the direction of the wind, which originates from the north and increases in degrees clockwise, and the wind speed, which is the horizontal flow. Air is measured in units of time. The wind speed can move colloidal particles, including clay and silt, from the site of destruction to a distance of hundreds of kilometers. Studies show that most dust days occur in the eastern regions of the country so that in the range of 120-day winds in Sistan, the frequency of dust per year reaches more than 150 days. Moreover, the prediction of numerical values ​​of maximum annual wind speed using the Spatio-temporal regression method was considered in this study. Error variance and alignment analysis using variance inflation index showed that numerical models of the Spatio-temporal regression of data could predict the Average maximum wind speed in the coming years. The results also show that regression Spatio-temporal until 2022 can predict wind speed.The numerical model indicates that the lowest annual average wind speed from 2019 to 2022 is related to the Ghaen station. Its forecast trend shows that by 2022, the average annual wind speed will decrease. The highest annual average wind speed is related to Zabol station, in which the forecast trend of this station shows that the average annual wind speed will decrease by 2022.

Considering the increase in housing construction in developing societies such as Iran, it is necessary to address the issue of reducing construction accidents, especially in metropolises, and related safety measures with the help of emerging technologies. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to investigate the use of Internet of Things to monitor and control high-risk points in order to reduce accidents and improve safety in the spaces of construction site in Tehran. In this applied research, first, a library study was conducted regarding the concept and application of Internet of Things in the safety field of the construction industry. Then, high risk points and activities were identified. After that, in the field study phase, this list was corrected and completed by 52 competent building safety consultants. After that, ten semi-structured interviews were conducted with safety experts and knowledgebale in the field of IoT. Therefore, effective solutions based on Internet of Things were extracted to control and monitor high risk points. Also, in this regard, the current situation and required platforms were explained from the aspects of technology, organization, cost and outsourcing. In fact, the main findings of this research, in the form of a conceptual model, show that paying attention to the stages of choosing the incident, choosing the desired point and activity, determining the appropriate solution for the determined situation (monitoring the amount of movement and health of the structure, monitoring the proximity of flammable materials with other materials, monitoring the proximity of people and machines and preventing the continuation of movement and determining the limits around the openings) and checking the required platforms (infrastructure, support, accreditation, culture, budget, employers and law), respectively, in order to design and implement IoT-based safety systems in the spaces of construction sites is vital.

Glaciers are one of the most important water resources in the world, which are heavily affected by global warming and climate change. This paper investigates the effects of global warming on the changes in the snow cover level of the Takht Suleiman region located in Mazandaran province during the warm months of the year through the past three decades using remote sensing. For this purpose, the images from June to August of the Landsat-5 and 8 satellites in the period of 1990 to 2021, as well as the data of the air temperature product of the ERA5 sensor were processed on the Google Earth Engine. In this research, NDSI index (Normalized Snow Cover Surface Index) was used to detect snow covered surfaces and the Mann-Kendall test was used to evaluate the trend of the data. The results of the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient in the Google Earth Engine system show an overall accuracy of 94% and a Kappa coefficient of 89% in 2021, which shows the high compatibility of this method with real data.
The results obtained during the investigated period show an increase of about 1.5 degrees in temperature during the last three decades at a significant level of 95%. The snow and ice cover of the Takht Suleiman region in June month decreased from 127 square kilometers( in 1990) with a decrease of 82% to 22 square kilometers( in 2021). The trend of changes in the level of snow cover in June was analyzed with the Mann-Kendall test, which shows a decreasing trend at a significance level between 80 and 90%. In general, these results indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in the level of this glacier during the statistical period studied, and the continuation of the gradual depletion of the glaciers of this region in the future is a serious threat to the downstream water source and the surrounding environment.

The sedimentation, sediment transport, erosion and sedimentation problems are important discussions in the planning of wisdom and macro watershed strategies and management of watershed basins. The sediment collection in lower areas causes regional damage, the destruction of the pathway of the waterways, the flow of water pollution, the accumulation of streams of sediment and reducing the capacity of reservoirs of dams and environmental bottlenecks. The sediment resulting from the watersheds erosion, in addition to soil loss and its degradation results in a decrease in water quality and endangers the useful life of dams due to the accumulation of deposits in their reservoirs. In this research, Spatiotemporal variations of suspended sediment load were investigated at three hydrometric stations of Sefidchah, Gelevard and Ablou located on the main channel of the Nakaroud Basin using sediment rating curves and linear regression model through applying MINITAB and EXCEL softwares. In order to determine the best model, determination coefficient (R2) was used. The results of this study showed that in seasonal variations of spring season in all three stations with a determination coefficient of at least 82% and a maximum of 89% as the most suitable model for estimating suspended sediment load among the models studied. In spatial studies, the Ablou station located at the outlet of the watershed has the highest determination coefficient (0.934) between sediment discharge and streamflow discharge.