فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 102 (تابستان 1401)

The present study aims to investigate the effects of monetary and financial shocks on macroeconomic variables in fractional and full reserve banking conditions. To this end, two stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models have been designed in terms of the realities of Iran's economy and then the effects of shocks have been studied. After determining the input values ​​of the model and estimating the parameters using the quarterly data of the Iranian economy during the period 1990-2020 by Bayesian estimation method, the simulation results indicate the validity of the model in describing the fluctuations of the Iranian economy. Examining the dynamics of the model shows that the positive shock of government consumption and investment expenditures under fractional reserve banking will increase production, money supply and decrease consumption, but in full reserve banking will increase consumption, production and reduce money supply in the Iranian economy. On the other hand, the shock of monetary policy under fractional reserve banking will increase inflation, government spending, and reduce consumption, production, investment, and employment. Also, comparing the reaction functions of the selected variables in the two models shows that 100% banking has caused the contribution of shocks to the fluctuations of key variables to change and even the position of some of them to be replaced by the shocks of government spending and monetary shocks. In the shock of government expenditures, the variables of consumption, inflation and money supply and in the monetary shock, the variables of production, consumption, investment, employment, and government expenditures have been affected by the type of banking. Moreover, comparison of the two shocks indicates that the effect of these two shocks in fractional reserve banking slowly disappears and remains in the economy for a longer period of time compared to full reserve banking.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of political regime types, including democracy and dictatorship, on the quality of economic institutions as the main variables in the formation of the economic growth process. The political power is distributed among a wide range of interest groups in mature democracies, while it is concentrated in the hands of the elected executive in initial democracies in a way that other groups are unable to participate in political power. In initial dictatorships, the political power is vested in one individual as well, but in mature dictatorships, it is divided among the members of the ruling group and the leader is limited in removing other members of the ruling coalition. The empirical results indicate that the economic institutions enjoy better quality in mature democracies and dictatorships compared to the initial democracies and dictatorships. Moreover, the economic institutions’ quality in mature dictatorships and democracies is not significantly different. The mature dictatorships have better protection of property rights compared to the initial democracies, despite the fact that they lack free elections. The results are robust to change the dependent variable, control variables, the sample, and using the instrumental variable approach.

 The purpose of this article is to identify the effect of gender composition of the workforce on productivity in Iranian manufacturing industries. For this purpose, while using the data of four-digit ISIC codes of the comprehensive plan of statistics from manufacturies with more than ten employees of the Statistics Center, the productivity of manufacturing industries is evaluated. Levinson and Petrin approaches are used to evaluate the factors affecting productivity in order to avoid the problem of simultaneity in the production function. According to the test results related to the data type, it was determined that the data are panel type. The results of the research indicate that, firstly, the estimation of productivity by Levinson and Petrin method is valid. Second: Although increasing gender equality among administrative-financial staff increases productivity, but the relationship between productivity and the employment share of skilled and unskilled female employees is negative at low levels of the employment distribution and positive at high levels of this distribution. Third, increasing women’s participation in light industries improves productivity. In addition, in small firms, gender equality among skilled workers and in large firms, gender equality among unskilled workers increases productivity.

Liquidity , as the most important variable of the money market , has a significant role in economic performance from various aspects and therefore it is important to identify the factors affecting liquidity. Considering that one of the channels to increase liquidity is loans paid by the banking network and the effective role of capital adequacy ratio in the payment of bank loans, in the present study we investigate the effect of capital adequacy ratio on volume of liquidity and its asymmetric effects in 2008:2 -2020:1 by using a nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags model.The results show that increasing the capital adequacy ratio has a reducing effect on the volume of liquidity and compliance with the regulation on the capital adequacy ratio can be one of the key tools to curb the growth of liquidity in the Iranian economy. In addition, the effect of changing the capital adequacy ratio on liquidity is asymmetric. According to the results of the Wald test, increasing the capital adequacy ratio has a stronger effect on liquidity than reducing it.The results also showed that the increase in the amount of non performing loans of the banking network through the channel of reducing the lending capacity of the banking network in both short-term and long-term periods leads to a decrease in liquidity in the country. The increase in the exchange rate has also led to an increase in liquidity in the country in short-term and with two lags. Also, in order to curb the growth of liquidity, an increase in government expenditures should be financed through an increase in tax revenues, not borrowing from the banking network or the use of sovereignty revenues.

The existence of a structural budget deficit in Iranian economy and the lack of fiscal discipline have raised concerns about the financial stability of governments among economists. In recent decades, fiscal rules have been considered as a way to establish fiscal discipline and financial sustainability of governments around the world. In this regard, the present study seeks to design a fiscal framework based on the three rules of debt ceiling, budget balance and expenditure for Iranian economy. The results of applying the stochastic simulation method show a high level of current public debt compared to the debt rule ceiling estimated by the model and the budget balance rule will be greatly effective in improving the future path of public debt. In other words, applying the budget balance rule reduces the fluctuations of the future path of public debt. It is also suggested to establish an institutional mechanism as a complementary institution with the aim of improving the performance and effectiveness of fiscal rules, especially for expenditures rule and ensuring their implementation

This study aimed to examine degree of competition, and how horizontal integration decision affects market structure in Iran’s banking industry. The horizontal integration impact is measured using H-statistic proposed by Panzar and Rosse (1987) based on historical data over the period 2010-2018. We calculate H-statistic in different scenarios including bankruptcy, market power of deposit market, credit risk and operational risk and the estimated H-statistics for these scenarios are -1.31, -1.48, -1.88 and -1.15 respectively. Also, regarding the market situation before integration decisions, the calculated H-statistic is -1.05 leading us to evaluate competitive effects of banking integration scenarios. The results show that operational risk scenario had the lowest negative effect on degree of competition while the highest negative effect was from credit risk scenario.

The experience of large fluctuations in the Foreign Exchange Market in Iran and the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on this market revealed the importance of adopting a scientific approach by fiscal and monetary policymakers and paying attention to the behavior of other actors (Foreign Exchange Speculators) in the decision-making. The present study tries to evaluate the Social Loss of adopting different approaches by monetary and fiscal policymakers for 9 Years (2011-2019) using the Game Theory approach via identifying the optimal interactive approach between the Government and the Central Bank that leads to the least amount of Social Loss. According to the results, the least Social Loss is achieved when the Monetary Actor pays more attention to the stabilization of Interest Rates and has more Independence in decision-making. In other words, the increase in Interest Rates by the monetary authority increases the desire for Foreign Exchange demand by Foreign Exchange speculators, as well as the desire to further divert government spending from the balanced government budget, which both behaviors interpreted to increase Social Losses. Accordingly, by resorting to the criterion of Social Loss, we can recommend the instrumental independence of the Central Bank to increase Social Welfare. This result requires a change in the conduct of Monetary and Fiscal Policies and a change in the attitude of the country's economic officials about the independence or non-independence of the Central Bank and how it interacts with the Government.

The Economics of Happiness is one of the relatively new areas in economics, which in recent years has found a significant place in the policy equation in most countries in the world. Today, it has been proven that there is a direct relationship between employee happiness and productivity of organizations, and this has led organizations to take steps to achieve greater productivity, the happiness of their employees. Since creating a happy organization is one of the strategic needs for long-term success, this shows that the importance of this issue is more important for important organizations in a country. In this research, socio-economic factors affecting happiness and its relationship with the productivity of taxpayers of large taxpayers have been investigated. In this paper, a sample of 150 people was selected by simple random sampling method and after collecting the questionnaires, the data were analyzed using SPSS23 and Eviews9 software. In addition, Cronbachchr('39')s alpha coefficient, which evaluates the reliability of the questionnaires, in this study was ./83, which indicates acceptable reliability for these questionnaires. The results of this study showed that in the case of the dependent variable of happiness, productivity, age, high spiritual, salary, very high job satisfy, sport, high rewards received, very high rewards received, high faith in God and very high faith in God variables were directly and singnification related to the happiness variable and variables employment, house, daily work hour, high job security and very high job security are inversely and singnification related to the variable of happiness. In the case of the dependency variable of productivity, the variables of happiness, high phisical, very high physical, very high spiritual, salary, high job security, very high job security, high rewards received, very high rewards received, very high family satisfy, high faith in God variables were directly and singnification related to the productivity variable, and the variables of education, high job satisfy and very high job satisfy are inversely and singnification related to the variable of productivity variable.

Productivity growth is playing the main role for economics and some believe that underdevelopment is due to low productivity. The productivity growth is a solution to overcome the production problem and capital constraints and that is why it is highlighted in Iranian economy. The purpose of this paper is to study the productivity growth of all factors of production and employment in industry sector from labor demand point of view. We worked with a system of simultaneous equations and used the two least squares method. It has been focused on annual data, and the two-digit codes of International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities for the three equations of employment, wages and capital stock during 2008-2016. The results showed that there is no relationship between productivity growth and the level of employment and capital stock in the industrial sector. In addition, there is an opposite relation between productivity growth and the level of wages.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of imports on employment in Ilam province and to analyze the Explicit and implicit aspects of unemployment by non-statistical method in this province. For this purpose, a two regional input-output table of 2016 in the form of 11 sectors and two regions of Ilam province and the rest of national economy has been made and this effect has been measured through employment multipliers at four levels of sector, intra-regional, inter-regional and two regional national. The research results show that with imports from other provinces, employment of all economic sectors in Ilam province decreases. The largest decrease in employment was in the construction sector with 0.8 jobs, followed by manufacturing industry and agriculture with a decrease of 0.5 jobs in the next positions. Accordingly, the lowest decrease in employment was related to the mining sector and financial intermediaries, which shows a decrease of 0.1 jobs.

In recent decades, the relationship between economic growth and government spending has attracted the attention of many researchers to the point that it has led to many experimental studies in this field in developed and developing countries. The rising trend of government expenditure with high volatility in economic growth during the years after Islamic Revolution in Iran has created significant conditions that add to the need for a detailed study of this issue. This research is an attempt to study relation between the economic growth and government expenditure in Iran. In this regard, the empirical investigation of long-term and short-run relationships between the variables studied during the period 1969-2018 and using the nonlinear ARDL model in Iranian economy has been studied. The findings of this study showed that asymmetry was considered when examining the relationship between economic growth and government expenditures, so that the effect of negative and negative shocks of economic growth on government expenditures in the short and long run is asymmetrical. Results of the Granger's causality test showed that there is a one-way relationship from the side of economic growth to government expenditures, while this relationship is not in reversed. In other words, the results of this test confirm the Wagnerian approach and indicate that Keynesian law is not approved for the Iranian economy.

For more than a decade now, Various efforts have been put in place by various governments of developing economies to promote economic growth. The impact of financial development and Trade liberalization on economic growth in the developing economies has been a subject of much debates and controversies. The contradictions in literature on the subject matter shows that these relationships is still an unsettled matter. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of financial development and trade liberalization on economic growth in upper middle income developing countries using annual time series data between 2000 and 2017. Furthermore, Due to multi-faceted and broad concept of financial development, We took a novel approach and created a Composite financial development index based on three dimensions: depth, access, and efficiency of financial institutions and markets.The results of this study, using two step system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM), Show the positive and significant effects of financial development on economic growth. We also found that trade liberalization has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in countries studied in this paper, both in term of increasing trade volume and reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers. Finally, the results illustrate that the good performance of the financial system reinforces the effect of trade liberalization and vice versa. As to study finding, the implementation of trade openness enhancement policies as well as the policies that result in the deepening and increasing the efficiency of financial sector and thus developing this sector, can be the factor for economic growth.