نشریه اقتصاد توسعه و برنامه ریزی
سال نهم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1401)

Trade balance influences macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate and national income. The continuous positive balance leads to more entrance of currency and increasing GNP and also, continuous negative balance leads to outflow of currency and decreasing GNP. The fiscal policy tools and government budget situation can be effective on trade balance. In this paper, the effect of shocks from government expenditures and taxes on trade balance in Iran has been studied empirically using structural vector autoregressive regression (SVAR) method. The results from estimated model show that i) there is a negative and significant relationship between shocks from government expenditures and trade balance in Iran. This finding indicates that a positive shock from government expenditures will get worse the status of trade balance ii) the positive and significant relationship between trade balance and tax burden is confirmed that show more tax burden improve trade balance through limit import.

Productivity is one the important concepts and fundamental necessity for the economic growth and development of all countries of the world. Hence, the study and identification of variables and factors influencing it, is essential especially for appropriate policymaking. The main objective of this study can be served as an investigation of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the TFP growth and to achieve this, the third class of endogenous growth theories have been considered in order to design hypotheses and model.To test hypotheses, the panel data methodology is employed for the period of 2000 to 2009 and the specified model is estimated for 7 selected countries of APO members including I.R Of Iran in deferent approaches and in order to determine the presence and type of effects, the Leamer and Hauseman tests are carried out.The results of estimations confirm our two hypotheses and statistically indicate that the significant relation between exchange rate fluctuations and TFP growth cannot be rejected so that the TFP growth will decline if the exchange rate increases and vice versa. Furthermore, the study has several consequences which are concerned with the effects of other variables on the TFP growth, such as the degree of openness to foreign trade and inflationary circumstances. Policy recommendations have been discussed in the terminal sector of paper.

The effects of foreign direct investment in host countries are one of the topics discussed in economics. By studying of the impacts of foreign direct investment on economic development, a key question is that attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on domestic investment or not; in other words, have they complementary or substitute effects. Therefore, in this paper, the impact of foreign direct investment on domestic private investment has been investigated in two sectors of building and machinery in Iran by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method between 1970 and 2020. The results of this study show that the foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on private investment in both sectors of building and machinery. So, foreign direct investment could be a complement commodity for domestic private investment in Iran

Economic development and the provision of facilities and welfare is considered as one of the most vital objectives of a society. Various methods proposed to achieve the same. Several societies have developed due to industrialization. Alternatively, numerous countries have moved towards this goal by conducting regional planning in the form of spatial planning studies. The crucial point for planning is to have precise data on the current situation and even the terrain and prospect of the regions. In the current study, using the available statistics, the industrial situation of the provinces of the Region 3 has been studied and compared. The provinces include Kermanshah, Hamedan, Lorestan and Ilam. Furthermore, using the AHP method of grading the importance of each of the indicators affecting the industry making use of Expert Choice software, the weight of each criterion has been obtained. Accordingly, the provinces are compared and ranked through the TOPSIS method using the obtained coefficients of importance and using the collected statistics. The results obtained indicate that Kermanshah province is currently in a better situation than other provinces. The results of estimating the prospect of the provinces also indicate that the situation of Hamedan province will be better in the future. Ilam province has the worst position and prospect in both estimates. Therefore, with regards to the existing conditions of the provinces, it is suggested that more attention should be paid to the industrial sector of Ilam province. Eventually, as experts are of opinion that labor productivity as well as the added value of high-tech industries are more significant, the necessary planning should be made to improve these two indicators.

Due to the impact of the global space, as well as its abilities in various scientific, commercial, political and energy fields, the Iranian economy has always been in a state of intolerance in international relations; it seems that the proposed economic rehabilitation plan is more than an existential necessity and is a defensive and sophisticated tool of the Iranian economy that can take an active approach to economic crises and to overcome obstacles in this situation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of government size on the resilience index of Iranian economy and it is very important. In this study, Vector Autoregressive Method was used to estimate model and Johnson-Juselius co-integration method was used to investigate long-term relationship between variables. Findings show, the size of government affects Iran’s economic growth positively. The Schwartz-Bayesian criterion was used to determine the optimal length of interruption, and the optimal interruption interval was estimated one. According to Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace), there are four convergence vectors between model variables and the Maximum Eigenvalue test confirms the existence of two convergence vectors between model variables. A shock in government size has boosted the resistance index of the Iranian economy. This increase has been fluctuating by the 10th year, after which it has been steadily increasing, and has continued until the 30th.

Government activities in an economic system play an important role in the country's economic growth and development, but increasing the volume of these activities to certain thresholds has a positive effect on economic growth, and from that threshold, increasing in the volume of government activities not only has no positive effect on economic growth, But these activities are the main obstacles to growth. The explanation for the non-linear effects of government expenditures on economic growth is known as the Army Curve. In this study, the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth has been investigated by using Army curve in Iran and South Korea (1990-2015) and with using autoregressive distributed lag model. The results show a positive nonlinear relationship between government expenditures and economic growth in both Iran and South Korea. With the negative sign of the power factor of the second government expenditure, the existence of a logistic curve in the long run is evident for both oil exporter and importer country: Iran and South Korean

The most important effective factors in sustainable cultural tourism are the six economic, social, political, cultural, managerial and environmental dimensions that these basic parameters can be transformative in Tourism industry. In order to prioritize the effectiveness of these factors and components of sustainable cultural tourism, the research based on the work done by a mixed method, and in the model building stage, it is a "qualitative-quantitative" type of research, and in the model testing stage, a descriptive research type (proof approach orientation) has been used. The statistical population of this research includes all the experts, managers and senior experts of the cultural heritage organization and organizations related to the Tourism industry in the cities of Isfahan, Shahrekord, Shiraz, Yasouj, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr that Using the Kokran formula, there are 128 people with a simple random sampling method selected as a statistical sample. The measuring tool of the research was the questionnaire made by the researcher of sustainable cultural tourism that was used. To measuring of the validity of the questionnaires using the content method and to determine its reliability, kronbach's alpha was calculated and its value was estimated to be 0.716. Structural equation method was used in Smart Pls3 software and Friedman test in SPSS23 software to check hypotheses. The results of the research showed that the indicators investigated in the model including social, economic, cultural, political, managerial and environmental factors have a significant effect on sustainable cultural tourism.

Terrorism is a complex phenomenon without a comprehensive definition of it, as many scholars have defined the term terrorism based on their own understanding of it. Terrorism and its consequences go beyond the aspects of fear, terror and loss of life and property. The link between security and economic growth is essential, because economic development cannot happen without security, and peace and security without growth may not be sustainable. According to the literature, terrorism has a direct impact on economic growth. Terrorism, conflict and violence destroy direct foreign and human capital and weaken political and social institutions that have a positive impact on economic growth. With this in mind, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of terrorism on economic growth in Middle Eastern countries during the period 2018-2000 using the combined data method. The results of this study showed that the number of terrorist incidents and those killed in terrorist attacks had a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of the studied countries. According to other results, it has been observed that human development index, foreign direct investment, bank credit and foreign trade have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Inflation rate has a negative and significant relationship with economic growth

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil revenues on the military expenditures in nine oil-rich countries of Middle East during the years 1995-2018. For this purpose, a general model of military expenditures designed for these countries and to estimate it the generalized method of moments (GMM) is used in the form of dynamic panel data. The results of the model estimation show that the oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on the military expenditures in the studied countries. So that with an increase of 1 percent in the share of oil revenues to GDP, the ratio of military spending to GDP (military time) increased in this country about 0.16 percent. On this basis, it can be said that the oil plays a significant role in providing military expenditure and security in the oil-rich countries of Middle East

According to importance of foreign direct investment effects on domestic investment financing, growth and development, countries attempt to attract foreign direct investment by creation of infrastructures. But literature indicates that foreign direct investment can affect domestic investment negatively. However, a key question is whether foreign direct investment crowd in or out domestic investment, and how foreign direct investment affects domestic investment in good governance and political freedom situation? So that, the aim of this paper is to research effects of foreign direct investment and good governance and political freedom on domestic investment in IRAN outlook documents countries by GMM model in 1996-2016 periods. Detected results indicate that foreign direct investment has crowding out effects on domestic investment in model without good governance and political freedom and model with political freedom index. In the model with good governance index foreign direct investment has neutral effect on domestic investment in IRAN outlook documents countries.

Industry is not only a conventional path for development,but as one of the results of globalization, it can be an accelerator for development.. In this regard, the industry has caused economic dynamism and vitality in many regions of the world, but it should be kept in mind that accelerated and unplanned development will also have more negative consequences. The financial market of the industry has a significant importance due to the effective role it plays in providing the financial resources and capital needed for investment and development of the industry sector. Therefore, this research was conducted in 2017 using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and by completing 10 questionnaires from the experts of the ministry of industry, mining and trade with the aim of prioritizing the financial components of capital investment in the industrial sector of Lorestan province. The results showed that among the components affecting investment in the industrial sector, attention to the private sector, injecting liquidity into the financial markets, updating financial and credit institutions, creating financial consulting centers, diversification in financial and credit institutions, and super-specialization Financial and credit institutions, respectively, have had the highest degree of importance. The maximum rate of consistency in this research is estimated to be 0.98, which indicates that the level of consistency in judgments is favorable. Therefore, it is suggested to reduce the reliance of investors on the financial resources of banks by providing the financial resources needed by investors through the expansion of financial and stock markets as well as the expansion of active investment companies."

Planning and policy making in the field of economic growth as one of the major macroeconomic goals requires special attention to the energy sector, environment and its relation to production. Undoubtedly, the production and increase of pollution is the result of the economic growth of the countries. This issue can be expressed in the context of the environmental economics, in the context of the Kuznets environmental curve, in which the process of environmental degradation is explained according to the nature and stages of economic growth. In this study, the effect of economic growth on emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollution was investigated using panel data method during the period of 2010-2018. For this purpose, the effect of real GDP per capita, per capita consumption of energy, the value added of the industrial sector from the actual GDP and the per capita GDP of the manufacturing plants on the per capita emissions of carbon dioxide gas (as the most important greenhouse gas) was estimated. The results indicate a N-shaped relationship between real per capita GDP and per capita carbon dioxide emissions and the confirmation of Kuznets' environmental theory in these countries. Also, evidence suggests that energy per capita variables, the value added share of the industry from real GDP, and the value added of productive productions have a positive effect on per capita carbon dioxide emissions.