نشریه مدلسازی اقتصاد سنجی
سال هفتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 26، تابستان 1401)

Several factors affect the changes in energy consumption in Iran. One of these factors is debt, which can affect energy consumption through consumption and investment channels. The purpose of this study is to  analyze other aspects of the share of factors affecting changes in energy consumption. This study with emplying logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI), analyzed the effect of debt on Iran’s energy consumption at the level of economic sectors and the whole economy including three effects related to the production and three effects related to the debt for the period 2006 to 2016. They were considered in three formats, including chain-linked, pair-wise, and pair-wise five-year periods. The results from sectoral and macro perspective indicate that particularly in the sub-period of 2004-2005, the effect of debt structure had the highest share in increasing energy consumption. Besides, the effect of government debt was the highest share in energy consumption reduction.

Identifying the type of relationship between the level of government intervention in the economy and economic growth has always been one of the issues discussed in the field of public sector economics. The most important instrument of the government's intervention in the economy is the expenditure it spends, so that the amount of government expenditures and how it is allocated to different sectors often affects economic variables. In this research, the impact of government expenditure components, which include education, health and military expenditure, along with investment variables and employment rate, on Iran's economic growth during the period of 1350 to 1398 has been investigated. Based on the results of the smooth nonlinear transfer regression model, the nonlinear and threshold relationship in the model was confirmed and the results showed that in the first regime, the effect of health expenditure growth on economic growth was positive and the effect of military and educational expenditure growth was negative. In the second regime, the impact of the growth of health expenditures was negative and the impact of the growth of education and investment expenditures was also positive.

In this study, using the fuzzy method, an attempt has been made to define a quantitative index for economic sanctions during the years 1979-2019 by using the opinions of sanctions economics experts. This quantitative index, as a useful time series, can help researchers in the field of Iran's economy and sanctions economy to study the impact of this economic phenomenon on different sectors of Iran's economy. The results obtained in this study show that during the years 2011 and 2012, the sanctions imposed against Iran had the highest amount. Also, during the years of the JCPOA agreement and the lifting of sanctions by the European Union, the United Nations Security Council and the United States of America, this index has decreased significantly, and with the withdrawal of the United States of America from the JCPOA in 2018, the index of economic sanctions has increased again.

This study examines the relationship between money creation and the rule of law as two social institutions effective in economic growth and development. Money is created in the context of laws, and therefore it is stated that if there is the rule of law, it will not be possible to expand the money supply; on the other hand, the creation of money and the resulting inflation alter the distribution of income and relative prices and, consequently, affect private property, increase the incentive to engage in non-market activities and government intervention in the economy, and in this way affects the rule of law. Following the study of the relationship between these two variables and the discovery of the causal relationship, using the data of the rule of law of the World Bank and the volume of liquidity in the period 1996 to 2020 for Iran, using Engle Granger method and vector error correction model (ECM), it was found that in the short run, there is a negative and two-way causal relationship between the rule of law and the amount of liquidity. However, in the long run, there is a negative relationship between the volume of liquidity and the rule of law, and causality is established from the volume of liquidity to the rule of law. In other words, the increase in liquidity has reduced the rule of law in Iran.

In recent years, the increasing growth in health expenditures has led to the recognition determinants of health expenditures be considered by researchers. According to studies, GDP and the emission of pollution are the important determinants of health expenditures. In this study, the effect of CO2 emission as an environmental indicator, GDP per capita as an economic indicator, urbanization rate and age dependency ratio as social indicators on health expenditures per capita has been estimated through use of the Panel Generalized Moments Method (PGMM) and the nonlinear relationship approach between income per capita and health expenditures per capita in 19 Oil Exporting countries including Iran in the period 2004 - 2018. The findings reveal that the variables of carbon dioxide emission per capita, urbanization rate and age dependency ratio have positive and significant effect and GDP per capita has a nonlinear inverted U-shaped relationship with health expenditure. This nonlinear relationship suggests that increment in GDP per capita leads to an increase in health expenditures per capita until the threshold level, and after that, this increment can lead to a reduction in health expenditures.

Fertility rate as an effective factor in population change is of great importance in all societies. In this article, using the information of household income and expenditure plan in 2017 of Iran Statistics Center and using the Poisson method in Stata software, the effect of women's employment on fertility has been investigated. The estimation results show that women's employment has a negative and significant effect on fertility; in such a way that their employment reduces the size of the household by an average of 7%. Age and education variables also have a negative effect on the household dimension. Although the coefficient related to the income variable is positive and significant, its smallness indicates a very insignificant effect on the household dimension. The variables of educational expenses and religious expenses also have a positive and very strong effect on the household dimension. The virtual variable of urban and rurality of the household did not have a significant effect on the size of the household; therefore, it seems that the larger size of rural households is explained only through other variables of the model, especially the employment of the woman and her education.