نشریه پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه
سال سوم شماره 2 (پیاپی 10، تابستان 1401)

Since the population pyramid structure of Iran shows the aging of the country's population, in addition to youth employment policies, attention should also be paid to the incentive system for the elderly. In this regard, the most important related researches were identified and their methods and variables were reviewed and categorized in order to provide a model for identifying factors affecting youth employment in Iran. Also, the most possible, most important and necessary variables have been selected. Then, using the micro data of the pension organization, the retirement motivation index was calculated seasonally for the economy of Iran. The estimation of the model showed that although the retirement motivation index has a positive and significant effect on youth employment, but the intensity of this effect is very low compared to other factors. In other words, premature retirement of the elderly cannot be considered as an important factor for the employment of young people. In fact, the policy maker can pursue the goal of reducing youth unemployment by influencing other variables affecting youth employment. Since the implementation of different policies can have precarious consequences, the best policy should be adopted and implemented in accordance with the conditions of each country.

The main goal of the current research is to determine the alignment of human resource strategies with organizational strategies and to measure the effect of this alignment on the performance of education organizations in the provinces of the country. The basic premise of this discussion is that in organizations where human resource measures are not coordinated with the organization's strategy, there will be a drop in performance in the entire organization. The tool for collecting data is a questionnaire. The statistical population of the research is the general education departments of the country's provinces, which were selected by multi-stage cluster sampling. To check the alignment of human resource strategies with organizational strategies, strategic reference point model has been used. Also one sample t-test and analysis of variance tests have been used to test the research questions. The obtained information and their interpretation show that in the general departments of education, the dominant type of organization strategy is reactive strategy and the dominant type of human resource strategy is secondary strategy. There is an alignment between organizational strategies and human resources strategies in some general education departments. Those departments that have more alignment between the organization's strategies and organizational elements, their performance is also higher.

Increasing production capacity, which is the main focus of the slogan of recent years, requires extensive structural reforms in the Iranian economy, of which public finance reform is one of the bottlenecks. This issue has been considered in the design of general policies of the resilient economy (2013) and based on this, the reform of the government's revenue system has been targeted. An examination of the budget structure of the last decade shows that the annual budgets have been slightly adapted to the requirements of a resilient economy. Due to the significant increase in the operating balance deficit in recent years, unstable and sometimes imaginary methods have been used to counter this deficit. Specifically in the budget of 2021 from the 6 methods of overestimating oil revenues, withdrawals from the National Development Fund, divestitures of state-owned companies in the form of "debt relief", divestitures of companies in the form of exchange traded funds (ETFs), the focus is on divestitures of government assets and issuance of securities. Studies show that these measures have formed a vicious circle, which has resulted in the intensification of destruction of production-oriented activities. Therefore, structural reforms in the budget at the level of resources and expenditures is of great necessity, as to move in the direction of increasing the country's productive strength.

One of the fundamental characteristics of development in the new era is the rise of emerging economies; So that the revival of China, India and Brazil, etc., will change the global geopolitical perspective. A look at the groupings and characteristics of emerging economies shows that these countries share one definition and that is that, along with economic growth and the struggle to keep pace in technology, they are heavily involved in trade and global markets. It is clear that Iran's transition to the status of an emerging economy, or rather, the country's current lack of success in upgrading to the rank of emerging economies, has its limits and differences, which the current study is trying to express comparatively. The current research is based on the fundamental proposition that the formation of emerging economies is based on the "last wave of globalization" in the 1980s and the expansion of capital in the "Global South". To demonstrate this proposition, four countries (China, India, Brazil, and Turkey) have been selected and compared with Iran in the context of qualitative comparative methods. The period of this study was chosen as 1980-2020, which coincides with the occurrence of the Islamic Revolution in Iran (as for the domestic dimension), and the occurrence of the last wave of globalization in the late 1970s and 1980s (as for the external dimension). The findings of the research show that due to the lack of comprehensive institutional reforms in Iran and the geopolitical and economic contractive conditions, especially in the last two decades, under nuclear tension sanctions, Iran is left behind from the new historical trajectory of emerging economies. Its obvious manifestation is the fluctuating, slow, and downward movement of the fundamental indicators of development in Iran compared to the model countries of this study.

Evaluation of Iran's development plans in different periods shows that majority of them have not achieved the desired results, and in some cases, the performance gap with the plan goals has been considerable. The evaluation of development plans shows that the lack of connection between the strategic and executive plans, and the lack of an appropriate evaluation system of the plan have been significant challenges for the realization of development plans. For this reason, suggestions have been made to improve plans in the country. These improvements include using key cores, rolling planning, or eliminating medium-term plans and focusing on adapting one-year plans with long-term plans.In this regard, this study seeks to achieve a framework of development planning that addresses the existing challenges of the country's planning system by combining the proposed improvements for planning. In the proposed framework, first, the country's development strategy and related macro goals are determined in such a way as to include the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of development and the commonalities between these three development dimensions. Then, by combining macro goals with spatial planning policies at national, regional, and provincial levels, challenges and opportunities of the country's territories are identified, so according to different spatial levels, the development drivers can be specified. In this way, sectorial and regional policies will be determined based on development drivers. In this context, combining spatial policies with macro development goals enhances the incentive and executive system for the implementation of the plan and provides the important task of the planning system, which is monitoring and evaluating the plan periodically.

The main issue in this paper is why the planning system in Iran with more than seven decades of planning experience has not been able to remove the obstacles to accelerate the development. To answer this important question, the pathology of the planning system is examined from two dimensions: Its stages (preparation and compiling (prerequisite, structure, process and product), approval, pre-implementation, implementation and Supervision and evaluation) and its source (inside and outside the organization). Causal relationships between identified disadvantages based on the effectiveness matrix obtained and root disadvantages has been extracted using the 5-Why technique.The results show that the root disadvantages of the planning system are: "Lack of common understanding of concepts by planners, policy makers and implementers", "The rule of centralized and non-participatory methods in planning", "Lack of mechanism for resolving conflicts of interest between program elites", "Rigidity in considering the situation and not paying attention to possible scenarios in the future", "Failure to prepare an action plan and link it to the approved plan", "Existence of sectorial-regional and local orientations in the approval of programs", "Relying on government resources and not paying attention to internal and external capacities and resources", "Lack of attention of the planning system to the system of reform and adjustment in policies, goals and executive plans after monitoring and evaluation" and "severe weakness of regulatory mechanisms". Also, suggestions have been made to policy makers and planners to design an optimal planning system.The results show that "Lack of common understanding of concepts by planners, policy makers and implementers", "The rule of centralized and non-participatory methods in planning", "Lack of mechanism for resolving conflicts of interest between program elites", "Stable in considering the situation and not paying attention to possible scenarios in the future", "Failure to prepare an action plan and link it to the approved plan", "Existence of sectoral-regional and local orientations in the approval of programs", "Relying on government resources and not paying attention to internal and external capacities and resources", "Lack of attention of the planning system to the system of reform and adjustment in policies, goals and executive plans after monitoring and evaluation" and "severe weakness of regulatory mechanisms" are the root damage of the planning system. Also, suggestions have been made to policy makers and planners to design an optimal planning system.