نشریه اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری
سال سوم شماره 3 (پاییز 1401)

In developing countries with inefficient economic systems and poor tax systems and without mechanisms of citizen participation in the supply of urban costs, the municipal revenue supply system will incline toward unsustainable income resources. Providing sustainable economic resources is one of the most critical challenges for urban management planners and policy-makers. Considering the importance of the role of Tehran metropolis in the urban and national economy, the present study is aimed to identify the complexity of the economic capital acquisition system based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model and with the participation of the Tehran urban management and investment decision-makers and also to identify the environmental determinant factors and extract the cause-effect relationships of the economic capital acquisition system to find the competitive strategies of the development of the economic resources acquisition system in Tehran urban management.

The present paper uses the hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approaches, including the two-stage Delphi technique to identify the factors affecting the subsystems of the "competitive advantage of nations" model, the fuzzy AHP to perform the paired comparisons and prioritize the factors, the hybrid fuzzy DEMATEL and SNA (social network analysis) approaches to analyze the network and extract the applied causal relationships. The participants included 12 elites from among the chiefs of the investment offices of the 22 municipal districts of Tehran and the experts introduced by the International Relations & Affairs of Tehran Municipality, who were selected using the purposeful sampling method. The research problem was investigated and analyzed using the fuzzy structure, considering the ambiguity and complexity of the relationships and the available approximate information.

After the review of the literature on the economic capital acquisition in urban management, based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model, initially, four economic resource acquisition systems (production factors, demand conditions, strategy and structure, and supportive industries), the governmental factors, unpredicted events, and 15 subsystems were determined (Fig.1). In the first stage, a total of 97 factors were ranked and refined (filtered) based on the consensus of the elites and using the Likert scale. In the second stage of the Delphi technique, to provide an opportunity for self-revision and assessment of the opinions of others, we again referred to the elites and, subsequently, a total of 65 factors were finally agreed upon and approved based on the elites' consensus. Figure (2) illustrates the Pareto diagram of the identified influential factors. As can be seen in this figure, the production factors with 18 factors ranked first in terms of the factors affecting the economic resource acquisition and the strategy and structure with 17 factors ranked next to it. Figure 1- Economic resource acquisition factors system based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model (res: findings) Figure 2- Pareto diagram of factors affecting the economic resource acquisition based on the "competitive advantage of nations" (res: findings) The assessment of the effectiveness of the systems showed that the external factors, including the government that is out of the control of the capital acquisition system in urban management, had the highest effectiveness with a weight of 33.8%. Next to it, the competition structure and strategy, with a weight of 33%, were the most influential factors in the capital acquisition in Tehran. Subsequently, the factors of production with a weight of 16.8%, the supportive industries related to urban management with a weight of 8.4%, and domestic demand for urban services in Tehran with a weight of 9% exhibited the lowest effectiveness. By investigating the system and subsystems of the model, it can be concluded that although the elites believed that the factors, which were out of the authority of the urban managers, were among the most critical factors affecting capital acquisition, the role of urban managers is the most important influential factor in those areas that are within the authority of the urban managers. In the next stage, in order to find the key factors, considering the results of paired comparisons of the factors, a total of 30 critical priorities, including 32 influential factors, were selected. Afterward, the 32 identified factors were analyzed using the DEMATEL and SNA approaches to extract the cause-effect relationships and extract the network relationships. Subsequently, to depict the relationship network and analyze the relationships between the factors, the total effect matrix was analyzed with a threshold bound in UCINET software based on the degree centrality index, and betweenness centrality index and, thereby, the relationship network was drawn using NETDRAW software. Figure (3) illustrates the cause-effect relationships of the factors affecting the financial resource acquisition in the Tehran metropolis based on the degree centrality index.Figure 3- Relationship network of the factors affecting the economic resource acquisition based on the degree centrality index (res: findings) (the magnitude of the nodes has been set based on the magnitude of the degree centrality)Based on the results of the SNA analysis, using the available expert human forces (P12), the agreement or opposition of the country's political position with the capital acquisition (S23), the probability of the occurrence of war and chaos (O16), and the urban infrastructures in the investment areas (P53) were identified as the causal factors in the network. In addition, the factors of the capital acquisition strategies (S12), the participation of the domestic companies in invested industries (I22), the supply of capital through accessible facilities in specialized industries (P23), the supply of capital through the stock market and OTC facilities for investors (P22), the structure of the demand sector with regard to the needs of the real-person citizens and legal entities of the city (D31) were determined as the most effectible factors. Furthermore, apropos of the factors with a high betweenness centrality, the factors of the capital acquisition strategies (S12), the regional knowledge for foreign investors (P42), the participation of domestic companies in the invested industries (I22), the decision-maker headquarters' convergence and consensus on the spatial marketing strategies (O22), and the innovation in the urban management services-related supplier industries (I12) were identified as the key factors that played a crucial role in the competitive advantage and capital acquisition.

Considering the results of the present study on the development of the economic resources acquisition system based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model in Tehran urban management, the following recommendations are presented by the authors:Developing the government's collaboration with the municipality in the acquisition of investment opportunities in urban management; Coordinating the governmental position and policies with the investment acquisition and applying incentive policies for the private sector and attracting foreign investors; Maintaining security and stability to reduce the risk of war and increase the attractiveness of urban investment; Planning for the development of the infrastructures required for the acquisition of investments in urban services; Supplying the required capital through specialized industrial facilities and capital market facilities and the participation of the companies working in the field of the opportunities of investment of different industries in urban services; Using specialized human forces for the acquisition of investment opportunities in urban management; Compiling the capital acquisition strategies in urban services in an integrated form through strategic planning of urban management; Developing the regional knowledge and accessible specialized data on the investment opportunities in urban management; The convergence and consensus of the decision-maker headquarters on the spatial marketing strategies and urban branding;
Providing the ground for innovations in the urban management services-related supplier industries.

Dealing with entrepreneurial actions through creating a creative atmosphere in the organization has led to the emergence of constructive and new behaviors of employees, presenting new proposals to them, and creating opportunities for innovation. It has led to the development of talents and the creation of opportunities and resources that can be used to advance the work and job to fulfill the responsibilities. As such, it transforms the organization's performance by increasing the employees' productivity. In the meantime, the correct use of the talent management strategy is the most vital parameter for senior managers and one of the most critical strategic issues that significantly impact improving organizational performance by designing integrated strategies and systems to increase human resources productivity. Therefore, attracting, developing, and maintaining people with unique abilities and skills can improve individual and organizational productivity by empowering potential talents in the direction of construction while aligning human capital with the organization. Also, differentiating talents makes a difference in individuals' current or long-term performance for the realization and excellence of organizational performance. Creating a talent pool of talented personnel helps reach goals. Entrepreneurial talent management is a new field of research in human resource management of Tehran Municipality, which by improving the special capabilities and individual skills of employees, improves the quality of services provided in the best possible way and, consequently, improves the performance and productivity of the organization. Therefore, the purpose of this study is the entrepreneurial talent management strategy to improve employee performance.

This research is descriptive-analytical and mixed (qualitative-quantitative) in terms of development purpose. The method of data collection in this research is mixed, and it was done from the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2021 in  22 districts of Tehran municipalities. The method of data collection is library studies, interviews, and questionnaires. First, In the qualitative part, to obtain a qualitative model, a semi-structured in-depth interview with the 5w1h technique was conducted to answer questions such as: how, why, what, where, who, and when. The statistical population of the qualitative part was selected from among the experts and knowledgeable critics of the research subject, consisting of experienced managers of Tehran municipality with more than 15 years of work experience who were familiar with the subject of entrepreneurship and talent management. These members were interested in the topic of discussion, had enough time to participate in the research, and had effective communication skills, the related field of study, the related field of service and occupation, and a history of teaching, authoring, etc. related to the topic of the research. Some were considered organizational talents. The method of sampling and determining the size of the Delphi panel was done in a targeted and snowball way, resulting in 45 people for interview. The interviewees were asked to introduce the next person for the interview. The interview was carefully directed to the next person. It continued until the saturation and persuasion of the data were gained. The qualitative analysis was performed through Atlas T8, which experts finalized with the  Fuzzy Delphi method through 11 components and 57 indicators. In the quantitative part, to validate the obtained model, a questionnaire of 56 researcher-made propositions with a Likert scale of fifty was used. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by the convergent and divergent validity method, and Cronbach's alpha confirmed its reliability. The sample for structural equations was calculated based on Cochran's formula of 212 people. Quantitative analysis was performed using Amos 22 software.

The findings in the qualitative part include 11 components of perceptive skills, decision-making, social intelligence, change leadership, result orientation (performance management), people management, sustainability and accountability, adherence to ethical principles, complexity, formality, and concentration. Also, 52 indicators corresponding to these components as influential factors were identified in the model and were put in the quantitative part in the form of the questionnaire. To realize the validity of the research tool in the qualitative part, three methods, including two tools for writing questions, modifying the questions by experts, and finally reviewing the questions by conducting two preliminary interviews, were used. Realizing the reliability of this research was also gained by reaching the stage of theoretical saturation. The quantitative section showed that the values of t-statistics for all routes are higher than the standard value of 1.96 and all identified factors affect the management of entrepreneurial talent to improve employee performance.

Finally, the conclusions showed that the design and implementation of an entrepreneurial talent management system for staff improvement performance in Tehran Municipality needs serious and continuous support and attention from the organizational and extra-organizational environment. In a municipality without such support, entrepreneurial talent management programs will not succeed in employee improvement performance and will lead to failure. Therefore, since the desired performance is a combination of various individual, organizational and environmental dimensions, according to contextual, content, and structural factors, including top management support, organization strategy, organizational structure, effective communication, organizational systems, and processes, etc., which include dimensions that play a role in the process of improving the performance evaluation of employees and the organization. Also, the results of the conducted studies showed that despite some implemented strategies regarding the improvement of the performance management of Tehran Municipality employees in recent years, which has been able to increase the productivity of human resources in each of the different departments of the organization; Due to the existence of distinctions and contradictions in contingency management and multiple leadership, diverse structures and strategic political, social, economic and cultural conditions of this sign service organization, this group is still far from establishing an efficient, comprehensive and desirable structure for performance evaluation and responding to public needs. It is not possible to meet the demands of our stakeholders in the field of improving performance in a safe and fair environment.

The 21st century is the century of cities, ideas, and creativity. Human creativity and talent are considered creative human capital, the main driver of economic, social, and cultural growth and development. The increasing competition of cities, regions, and countries will increasingly depend on its cultivation, preservation, and attraction. Research shows that creative capital has more explanatory power than human capital to explain the economic prosperity of cities and is the key to urban-regional economic growth and the age of creativity. So that in today's creative economy, ideas and intellectual capital have replaced natural resources, and human creativity is the ultimate source of economic growth. Creative Capital selects specific cities and regions for work and living, known as creative cities: cities with the most significant capacity to attract, retain and nurture creative capital.Accordingly, this research seeks to focus on three key questions. The first issue is how to operationalize the new concept of creative capital in Iran. The second problem focuses on investigating the effects of creative capital on the economic prosperity of cities and regions; As in the theoretical literature, many researchers have emphasized this issue and proved it.Considering the importance and role of creative capital in economic prosperity and urban-regional development, cities and places with more creative capital will become more developed and prosperous, and vice versa, cities and places with less creative capital will decline. In this regard, the third issue is that among factors of production, creative capital has high mobility and its amount and distribution are uneven and divergent; the third question forms the research on which factors shape the distribution of creative capital in Iranian metropolises.

This research is correlational and explanatory research. This research's data collection and analysis unit are Iran's metropolises (cities with more than one million people).The steps used to achieve the research objectives are as follows: first, the critical research variable of the creative class is operationally defined, and its statistics and information are analyzed at the level of Iranian metropolises. In this research, according to the theoretical literature on the role of creative capital in the growth of the urban-regional economy, in the second stage, the role of creative capital (as an explanatory and independent variable) at the level of Iranian metropolises in economic functions (as a dependent variable) such as per capita GDP and capita Bank deposits are analyzed using correlation test and linear regression in SPSS software. In other words, the explanatory power of urban-regional economic growth is explained by creative capital. Then, according to the role of creative capital in the growth of the urban-regional economy, influential factors in the locational decisions of creative capital and their percentage presence in metropolises are explained. At this stage, after explaining the role of creative capital in economic variables, it is discussed what factors lead to the dispersion of creative capital (dependent variable) and their different presence in the country's metropolises.

The findings show that the highest level of the creative class is related to Tehran, so 23.5% of its employees are in jobs with a high degree of creativity. After Tehran, the metropolises of Ahvaz (7/19), Isfahan (8/18), Karaj (2/18), Shiraz (2/18), Tabriz (6/15), Qom (4/15) are placed in the next ranks. Also, the lowest rate is related to Mashhad (with 15.3 percent) of employees in the creative class.The research findings show that the spatial patterns of the creative class in Iran are more concentrated in the metropolises. The creative class in Iran is a metropolitan phenomenon in such a way that the metropolises, despite having approximately 26% of the country's population and 26% of the country's total workforce, 42% of the entire creative class of the country.The findings show that there is a strong correlation between the percentage of the creative class of metropolises and economic variables. So that there is a strong positive and significant correlation between the creative class and GDP per capita (correlation coefficient = 0.868 and significance coefficient = 0.005), and creative capital can explain 71.2% of changes in GDP per capita. Similarly, there is a positive and significant correlation between creative capital and per capita bank deposits (correlation coefficient = 0.816 and significance coefficient = 0.014), and creative capital can explain 61% of changes in bank deposits per capita.In the talent factor, the findings show that there is a correlation between creative capital and university concentration variables (correlation coefficient = 0.737 and significance coefficient = 0.037), the concentration of top universities (correlation coefficient = 0.759 and significance coefficient = 0.029), the percentage of the population with higher education (correlation coefficient = 0.883 and significance coefficient = 0.004), bachelor students and above per 1000 people (correlation coefficient = 0.750 and significance coefficient = 0.032) has a positive and significant correlation..Tolerance and openness to diversity affect the amount and geographical distribution of talent and creative capital. In other words, places open to all kinds of demographic diversity, different thoughts, and opinions, and accepting them can accommodate and attract more creative capital. In this regard, in the factor of tolerance and diversity, the findings of the table show that between creative capital and variables of religious diversity (correlation coefficient = 0.884 and significance coefficient = 0.004), the concentration of artists (percentage of artists from all employees) (correlation coefficient = 758/ 0 and the significance coefficient=0.029), the share of the metropolis from the total immigrants who entered the metropolises (correlation coefficient=0.735 and the significance coefficient=0.038) and the share of the metropolises from the total foreign immigrants of the metropolises (correlation coefficient=0.767 and the coefficient Significance = 0.026), there is a positive and significant correlation.In examining the factor of consumer services, which in a way represents local facilities and assets, the findings showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between creative capital and consumer services, and the material presented in the context of the service role of the city and its amenities and the presence of the creative class has a significant relationship (coefficient Correlation = 0.706 and significance coefficient = 0.049), which is significant.

Conclusion :

In general, this research comes to the conclusion that the future competitiveness of cities and regions and having the upper hand in future developments and the transition to a creative economy will be through creative capital, whose positive effects on the economic prosperity of cities and regions were investigated and approved in this research. However, what is clear is that creative capital chooses certain places to work and live, which this research makes clear, having a tolerant and diverse environment, the artistic and creative atmosphere of the city, amenities, and the service role of the city, along with the concentration of universities and higher education, along with talents such as students with higher education who are to some extent future creative capital, can be attractive to creative capital and influence one’s location decisions to work and live in a city.

One of the most critical aspects of alignment in the organization is the alignment between strategic plans and budget. The need to create a meaningful relationship between policies, strategic plans, and budgets in public institutions has been in the spotlight and recognized for a long time. This means that merely formulating medium and long-term plans for managing public institutions in an environment with changing political, economic, and legal considerations is not enough. Instead, the mentioned planning should be reflected in the process of setting and implementing the budget. Municipalities, as one of the largest institutions in the public sector, are not exempt from this rule because if the limited resources of the municipalities are allocated in a non-optimal way, in addition to the waste of resources, it will lead to increased monitoring costs, non-fulfillment of municipal plans and missions, and finally public criticism and protests. Therefore, it is expected that the alignment of strategic planning and budgeting will be a central issue in the focus of urban management. But in practice, it can be seen that the budget is prepared without considering the strategic plan and operational plans. Also, there is no administrative structure to create a logical relationship between them, which increases the pessimism of the organization about the plans and causes a gap between the plans and budgets. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the reasons for the misalignment of planning and budgeting in the Tehran municipality. In most developing countries, the government or municipalities prepare a medium-term development plan that specifies the country's strategic priorities and main goals for a period of three to five years. However, this work is often done independently of the annual budget process and usually leads to the creation of a list of plans and activities that cannot be realistically achieved due to the government's financial issues and problems. Therefore, the programs become an academic exercise instead of an effective tool to promote socio-economic development. In Iranian municipalities, despite the emphasis on the alignment of the planning and the budget in the upstream laws, the budget has always been criticized for not matching the framework of long-term plans. The lack of alignment has challenged the efficiency and effectiveness of the budgeting and resource allocation system. Also, it has created many doubts regarding the effectiveness of Tehran's municipal plans in the minds of citizens, members of the city's Islamic Council, and city planners. If the current situation continues, this gap will increase. This problem in the Tehran municipality has many dimensions and complicated issues, and this research has tried to look at these issues with a real and comprehensive view. Finally, the alignment model of the planning and budgeting of the Tehran municipality has been presented.

This survey is a practical one regarding its aim, and it is done by descriptive-analytic method, and it has no hypothesis. Also, information has been collected in both library and field forms. According to the problematic situation of the research and its characteristics, the research problem is unstructured. This type of problem cannot be solved by classical methods and formulating limits and goals. Therefore, the soft system approach is used to solve the problem. Due to the complexity of the research, the model was designed based on soft system methodology and cognitive mapping in the form of a qualitative study with a descriptive-exploratory approach. The study population includes all stakeholders and parties involved in the issue of planning and budgeting in the Tehran Municipality, which consists of a wide range of institutions and internal departments of Tehran Municipality. Twenty-five experts were interviewed using the snowball method to select the samples, and the interview process continued until the theoretical saturation was reached. Finally, a mental map of each of them was drawn, and by combining these maps, an enriched image of the research problem was created. The CATWOE approach was used to explain the root definitions, and the conceptual model of activities was extracted based on the root definitions.

According to the results, misalignment of planning and budgets is not only a technical issue; somewhat, it is influenced by internal and external factors such as weakness in support rules, budgeting system, planning structure, monitoring mechanisms, financial and accounting, infrastructure requirements, and coordination among the stakeholders, etc. In this regard, 11 targeted activities and corresponding measures related to each of them have been proposed to align the planning and budgeting of the Tehran Municipality.Also, according to the investigations and the research results, the issues related to the non-alignment of the program and the budget are complex and intertwined issues rooted in more significant issues. In a general classification, most of the problems resulting from the lack of alignment of the program and budget in the Tehran Municipality are of the managerial and infrastructure type. Still, the importance and extent of the impact of extra-organizational issues cannot be ignored either. The lack of an urban unit management system, the lack of legal support for the plan, and the insufficient monitoring of the institutions mentioned above on the municipal plan and budget are such issues that have affected the formulation and implementation of the Tehran Municipality plan. Furthermore, the results of the research showed that there are many internal organizational issues, such as lack of reform of laws, lack of reform of the budgeting system, lack of reform of the plan structure, lack of reform of council mechanisms, financial and accounting problems, lack of monitoring of the plan and budget. The lack of infrastructural requirements has also caused a misalignment of the plans and funding in the Tehran Municipality. Therefore, until a fundamental solution to solve these problems is not presented and implemented, and the necessary infrastructure is not provided to meet the requirements mentioned in this research, the alignment of the plans and budget in the Tehran municipality will remain a dream. Also, the participation and consensus of all elements related to the planning and budgeting of the city of Tehran to solve these problems are one of the main drivers of solving the problem of the misalignment between the plans and the budget in the Tehran Municipality.

The rapid decrease in the water level of Urmia Lake in recent years has affected the economic and social situation of the residents around it. Destruction of settlements, recreational and residential complexes, decrease in tourist arrivals, and decrease in income of the region from the tourism industry are examples of these issues and challenges in the region. Therefore, it seems necessary to analyze the effects of this environmental crisis, especially on the settlements and employment systems of the region. Ignoring this issue may cause vast and irreparable side effects, which will alarm the health and livelihood of the region's people. In this regard, depending on whether the past trends continue, stop or even improve, different futures can be predicted for the next twenty years of the region. Therefore, in this research, it has been tried to rely on the approach of future research and developing scenarios that forecast economic and social damages that are likely to occur in the region in the next twenty years. Also, we recommend strategies, policies, and actions appropriate to each of the scenarios that have been presented to improve the planning process.

This paper has a quantitative and applied methodology. In terms of method and nature, this research is exploratory analytical research. Data gathering has been done using documentary methods with the tools of existing databases and data collection with the tool of questionnaires. The sampling method is non-random and targeted. To survey the experts’ opinions, 19 people from three groups of university professors, managers of organizations, and graduate students who had expertise and experiences with the research topic were selected. The approach of this research is future study. The Delphi method was used in the present research to obtain experts’ opinions and identify uncertainties. Then, the scenario writing method, with the help of Scenario Wizard software, was used to extract possible scenarios of the research subject. Finally, the DPSIR technique presented the proposed strategies, policies, and action plans.

After examining and reviewing the available literature, 28 variables affecting settlement and employment in the Urmia Lake catchment area were identified. After screening these variables with the Delphi method in two stages, four main research variables were extracted under the title of critical uncertainties. These uncertainties, including dam construction, unemployment rate, poverty and inequality, and the sense of personal and social security, were entered into the Scenario Wizard software in three favorable, static, and critical situations. In addition, after the scoring stage by experts, in total, 12 scenarios, including two probable scenarios, six possible scenarios, and three consistent scenarios (compatible), were obtained as software outputs. In the first consistent scenario, all variables are in a stationary state. In the second compatible scenario, all the variables are in a static state, except the variable of personal and social security, which is in a critical situation. In the third compatible scenario, the variables of dam building and unemployment rate are in a static state, and the variables of the level of poverty and inequality and the feeling of personal and social security are in a critical state. After this stage, in line with planning based on these scenarios, using the DPSIR technique, the main strategies of intelligent water and soil management, strengthening the institutional framework, making rural communities resilient, focusing on vulnerable and sensitive groups, local economic development and rural development and also related policies and action plans were proposed according to each of the scenarios.

The current research has been looking at how the reduction of the water level of Urmia Lake will affect the region in the next 20 years and planning in the form of scenarios. By examining the background of the current research, we can reach a consensus: that all the researchers say that the Urmia Lake crisis has caused damage in various economic, social, political, environmental, and other dimensions. It can also be said that despite the results of most of the reviewed research, which was based on interviews on the scale of villages, this research is based on variables taken from previous related research on the scale of a region with the help of The Delphi method and the use of experts' opinions and scenario planning. Based on the investigations conducted among various types of research, the use of this method was not observed in the subject of the research. In describing the compatible scenarios of the lake catchment area, it can be stated that in compatible scenario number 1 (static situation), the construction of dams in the Urmia Lake basin has been stopped, and there has been no change in the unemployment rate, the level of poverty and inequality, and the sense of personal and social security in the region. Officials and managers have decided not to continue the dam building process in the region and to stop the dam construction projects. Due to the decrease in the water level of the lake that this phenomenon has continued in the last few years and following, the destruction of resorts, residences, and recreational complexes and in general, the stagnation of the tourism potential of the region, the jobs of those natives who are dependent on lake tourism has not changed much. With the decrease in soil fertility and quality, no progress can be seen in the region’s agricultural sector, and no improvement in the amount of crop production has been achieved. This situation has caused a change in people’s personal and social security. In such a situation, to return to the population who were forced to migrate due to the loss of their jobs, it is possible to invest in the cultural, historical, and natural parts of the villages in the surrounding areas through alternative crops compatible with the new water and soil conditions. Incompatible scenario number 2 (critical situation), the construction of dams in the Urmia Lake basin has been stopped; the unemployment rate and the level of poverty and inequality in the region are stable, but the feeling of personal and social security has decreased. The managers' decisions to stop dam construction have prevented excessive damage to the lake. However, the drying up of the lake has led to the weakening of the community in the surrounding areas and the reduction of the feeling of personal and social security in society. There is also a possibility of a further decrease in the population, especially in the villages. In fact, since the livelihood of the villagers closer to the shore of the lake is more affected by the ecological situation of the region, in these villages, we will face a decrease in the population, especially the active population. Based on this, to sustain the people living in the villages and cities near the lake, the necessity of all-round planning that prevents the emptying of most of the villages, preserves the residents and natives of the region, and supports the young forces of the region, and also restores peace and stability to the region, is very important. It is felt. Incompatible scenario No. 3 (very critical situation), dam construction in Urmia Lake Basin has been stopped; The unemployment rate has remained stable, but the level of poverty and inequality in the region and the feeling of personal and social security have increased. The continuation of unemployment in the region will cause residents to leave and migrate to nearby cities. As a result, the economy of the entire region, including the tourism industry, will fall rapidly. Also, the jobs of people who are dependent on tourism will also be destroyed. On the other hand, the widening of inequalities and the creation of class gaps in a society have a direct relationship with the increase in social damages and the increase in the number of crimes in it. Considering that the dominant economy in this region is agriculture, it seems that it is better to prevent migration and improve the livelihood of residents by planning the resilient rural communities, training new irrigation methods, introducing local products compatible with the environmental situation, and providing facilities and credits for providing these products to the villagers. Such solutions should be brought up in urgent meetings and quickly put on the agenda of the relevant executive institutions.

emissions and climate change have attracted much attention due to their effects on the global environment. Financial development plays an important role in economic development by reducing information asymmetry and improving the optimal allocation of capital. In addition, many empirical studies confirm that financial development is an important factor in determining the quality of the environment. Financial development allows companies to finance their research and development activities or new facilities, which will have an impact on the environment. There is no consensus on the effect of variables. On the one hand, the growth of the financial sector provides more funds for the energy sector to research new technologies with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, financial development can increase production activities and increase pollution.  emission and environmental pollution are the most challenging issues discussed today. Therefore, many researchers have discussed these issues. The methods, approaches, and samples investigated in various research have reached contradictory results, and investigations in this field are still ongoing. In MENA countries, the use of fossil fuels and subsequently  emissions is more than in other countries. As our country is among these countries, it is necessary to pay more attention to the factors affecting the reduction of  emissions. Understanding the influence channels of financial development on greenhouse gas emissions and their cause-and-effect relationships is essential for policymakers in reducing pollutant emissions using financial instruments. The content of this article is organized into five parts: In the second part, the background of the studies is given. The third part of this research is the methodology, the explanations of the variables, and the research model. The fourth part is dedicated to model estimation and experimental findings, including the results of research methods, comparison of methods, and descriptive analysis of data using scatter diagrams. The final part includes conclusions and suggestions.

This research has been conducted concerning the impact of financial development indicators on carbon dioxide emissions for 20 member countries of MENA (the Middle East and North Africa) in the period 2000-2020. The data of this research was extracted from the World Bank website, and fully modified least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG) estimators were used to estimate the long-run coefficients. Carbon dioxide is the dependent variable, the financial development index is one of the main variables, and energy consumption, urbanization rate, and GDP per capita are the control variables of the research.

In order to check the effectiveness of the pooled group average method and the group average, the Hausman test was used in this research. In all three methods, the variables of the financial development index have caused a decrease in  emissions, and economic growth, urbanization rate, and energy consumption have increased it. Among the three methods used, the highest coefficient of influence of variables of financial development index and urbanization rate on emission is related to credits granted to the private sector (0.797) and the DOLS method. The results of all three methods are the same, and it can be argued that the obtained results have sufficient strength.

According to the results of the current research and the effects of financial indicators on greenhouse gases (negative impact on  emissions), it is suggested that financial sectors should encourage and support pollution reduction projects and pay subsidies for research and development. Optimize technologies in energy and help promote and develop sustainable low-carbon industries. Local governments should plan and optimize the existing industrial structure at the time of industrial and financial support in order to reduce pollution and consider the issues of clean energy development and pollution reduction in subsidy, tax, monetary, and financial policies. Financial departments should support the policies of green technology transfer and foreign direct investment in the renewable energy sector. Also, considering that the rate of urbanization increases emissions, it is suggested: The use of pollutant control systems with advanced and modern technology in cities with high populations, policies, and strategies should be adopted with the aim of minimizing migration from rural areas to cities, the effect of increasing urbanization rates on environmental pollution through regulation Environment and technological innovations should be balanced.

The smart municipality, or in other words, the electronic municipality, is considered one of the basic infrastructures of a smart city, which provides the necessary substrates and bases for the formation of a government and electronic town planning. Today, the smart municipality is considered one of the best solutions to simplify business and administrative processes, deal with the increase in administrative bureaucracy, reduce intra-urban traffic and, consequently, reduce the pollution in the major cities. This research aims to assess NasimShahr's cultural, managerial, social, and electronic readiness to create a smart municipality and provide solutions for its realization.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive survey in nature. The data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, document reviews, forms and documents, and organizational information sources. The statistical population of the research consists of three groups: municipal managers, IT experts, and Internet users in NasimShahr. Therefore, a questionnaire was used in the field research to collect data and information on the conceptual model for all three groups of Internet users, IT experts,  and managers. Data analysis was done using the confirmatory factor analysis method.In order to determine the conceptual framework of the research, the research literature, related models, and then the field background of the research were collected and studied. From the total of these studies, more than 400 raw and unscreened indicators, in general, and partial, were extracted to create a smart municipality. Then, to complete the studies and more accuracy, the websites of several smart municipalities, including the cities of Raleigh, San Francisco, London, and Boston, which were ranked the best in the international rankings of electronic cities of the world, were examined and reviewed in a structured way. Finally, according to the cultural and social conditions of our country's organizations, about 56 indicators were selected for the studied society. Of course, because some indicators overlapped, only 43 indicators were selected, and questions were designed and distributed for them.

Confirmatory factor analysis was done for data analysis due to the small number of initial models. Then, path modeling was done again based on the factors obtained from confirmatory factor analysis. Smart-PLS software was used to model the structural equations of the questionnaire models of managers and specialists of IT experts due to the small amount of data. Amos software was also used to model the structural equations of the internet user questionnaire model. Finally, to test all the hypotheses using SPSS software, a one-sample t-test was performed.

Data analysis was performed using the confirmatory factor analysis method. The research results show that there are no necessary and adequate preparations to create a smart municipality in NasimShahr. Therefore, the best solution is to provide the essential measures, infrastructures, and substrates to justify and realize the possibility of implementing the plan.

Creating a smart municipality, first of all, requires urban governance in all its dimensions. Exciting research in 2022 in Brazil shows that smart cities that focus solely on technology rarely succeed. Other key factors contribute to the success of a smart municipality, the most important of which are: the precise assessment of needs, strategic leadership, the role of facilitator of local governments, and providing the necessary resources and the appropriate infrastructures.According to the results obtained from the analysis of the data, it can be concluded that currently, due to the limited facilities, the lack of preparation of the various platforms and infrastructures, as well as the absence of an appropriate structure for the integration of administrative departments and information sources, there is no electronic preparation needed to create a smart municipality in NasimShahr.Therefore, based on the findings of the research, the analysis of the conditions with open questions at the end of the questionnaire, and the final survey of urban affairs experts, IT experts, and Internet users, we conclude that before the implementation of such a plan, a series of integrated measures should be implemented. We offer some of them as suggestions:1- Integration of administrative structures, information sources, and organizational processes in the municipality;2- Development of ICT infrastructures, such as databases, networks, and information highways;3- Establishing a reliable and integrated statistical system for urban and municipal affairs;4- Simplifying and making smart processes with a re-engineering approach;5- Creating remote work systems and developing web services in the municipality;6- Cultivating and explaining the importance of smartening urban affairs for employees and managers who resist new projects;7- Increasing the electronic security factor of systems, information sources, and software used in the municipality.And finally, for the researchers who want to conduct relevant and practical research for this city in the future, along with this issue, it is suggested to conduct a study regarding the "requirements and solutions for designing or creating an electronic municipality in NasimShahr.”

The current research aims to find the subjective perception of familiar and unfamiliar audiences (women) about the semantic quality of the architectural facades of commercial complexes and to investigate the difference in the quality of the subjective perception of the audience under the influence of memories and mentalities from the façade of commercial buildings in Qazvin city. The research question is what is the subjective perception of familiar and unfamiliar audiences about the semantic quality of architectural facades of commercial complexes in Qazvin city?”. What effect will the memories and mentalities of the audience familiar and unfamiliar with the commercial building of Qazvin city have on the difference in the quality of mental perception of the facade of the building? The research method is a combination of descriptive-analytical methods and grounded theory. The steps of the second method include sampling and conducting interviews until reaching theoretical saturation, categorizing the results through categorization, open coding, and axial coding until the stage of forming the core category of the research. Data collection has been done with the semi-structured interview tool in two preliminary and final stages from the users and observers of these views and the general public. The sample population was randomly selected into two groups: Qazvin citizens (acquainted addressee) and unacquainted addressee with the studied complexes. The unacquainted addressee was selected from residents of Rasht and Tehran. The reason for choosing these two cities was to find possible differences in the answers of these two groups according to the difference in the scale of the city and the expectations and backgrounds of the residents of these two cities. The commercial buildings in question include all 13 commercial complexes in Qazvin. The results show that the mental perception of acquainted and unacquainted people about the semantic quality of the architectural facades of commercial complexes in Qazvin has significant differences and similarities. The differences are mainly related to the emotional and then functional aspects, and the similarities in mental perceptions are related to the physical characteristics of the facades. Finally, among the sub-sections of semantic qualities, although emotional qualities are influential in modulating negative attitudes and undesirable mental perceptions of commercial views for acquainted people, physical and then functional qualities are more critical and general factors in the mental perception of acquainted and unacquainted people, that its result will be desirable emotional qualities. 

This research adopted three stages of coding, including open, axial, and selective coding. In the first step (open coding), the text of all interviews was studied separately and in full detail. Its concepts and categories were extracted and compared with each other and with the categories of other interviews. If necessary, subcategories, characteristics, and dimensions were defined. Then, in the selective coding stage, the categories and their dimensions were compared and integrated, and the final classification was obtained. In this step, the necessary information was obtained to extract the conceptual model of the data. The sample population was randomly selected into two categories: Qazvin citizens (familiar audiences) and unfamiliar audiences with the investigated complexes. Unfamiliar audiences were selected from residents of two cities, Rasht and Tehran. The reason for choosing these two cities was to find possible differences in the responses of these two groups based on the difference in city scale, expectations, and backgrounds of the residents of these two cities. The commercial buildings in question include 13 commercial complexes in Qazvin city. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop the model obtained from the data in the framework of the contextual theory in relation to the semantic quality of the facade and subjective perceptions (especially regarding commercial facades and also to expand the discussion by comparing the perceptions of different groups of users in terms of the influence of mental background and place of their residence) to be drawn, described and explained. 

Prioritization of commercial complexes’ facades includes Niayesh, Noor, Khalije-Fars, Alborz, Mehr and Mah, Iranian, Narvan, Touba, Dariush, Ferdowsi, Al Ghadir, Setareshahr, Pars. In unfamiliar people, metaphorical associations are more than in familiar people. Some commercial complexes, such as Noor, have the most metaphorical associations, such as a castle, submarine, space station, and cabin in front of the train. In these complexes, compared to other commercial complexes, purer volumes such as cylinders and cubes have been used. In contrast to other commercial complexes, they have a combination of volumes. Recognizing pure volumes in this complex allows the viewer to create a metaphorical association. One of the most critical factors for evaluating the semantic quality of commercial complexes for familiar people is to pay attention to the sociable spaces of the entrances, including setbacks, furniture, and green spaces. Furthermore, paying attention to the pedestrian view and the sociability of the entrance space were evaluated as the most critical factors. So that some complexes were not significant in terms of the body, but they were assessed very well in terms of entrance function. The most important factors that caused the lack of desirability of commercial facades are inappropriate colors and materials, irregular geometry, ambiguity, lack of identity, additional, and adjoint elements. By analyzing the pictures drawn by the respondents, the most important factors are color, geometry, variety of forms, attention to detail, extensive use of glass, attention to the entrance, and repeated horizontal and vertical lines.

The results show that the three physical, functional and emotional characteristics have influenced the subjective perception of the audience about the semantic quality of the facade of commercial complexes in different ways. In this way, the mental perception of familiar audiences is influenced by all three groups of emotional, physical, and functional characteristics. Also, the perception of unfamiliar audiences in both the scales of large and medium cities about the semantic quality of the facade of commercial complexes has been affected by physical and functional characteristics. The final result is that among the subsections of semantic qualities. However, emotional qualities have been effective in balancing negative attitudes and unfavorable mental perceptions of commercial facades for familiar audiences. However, physical qualities and then functional qualities are more critical and general factors in the favorable mental perception of familiar and unfamiliar audiences, which will result in favorable emotional qualities.

Introduction:

 Public transportation is considered one of the main requirements for economic growth and the sustainable development of cities. Lack of appropriate public transportation infrastructure can cause various socio-economic issues, including congestion, waste of time and fuel, intensive air pollution and the emission of greenhouse gasses, high urban density, and environmental degradation. The use of the public transportation system can be affected by various policies inside or outside the system. The ability to predict the fluctuations of the urban public transportation system due to internal and external shocks of the public transportation system is one of the most basic requirements for appropriate policymaking in response to sudden fluctuations, especially in the Tehran metropolitan. One of the main issues that put pressure on urban public transportation systems is their significant effectiveness in the fluctuations of gasoline prices and fares in big cities. Gasoline price fluctuations can change people’s behavior in the substitution between private car use and public transportation system. On the other hand, fare changes can affect the demand for various public transportation vehicles like buses, metro, and BRT in Tehran as well. Despite the considerable importance of gasoline prices and fares on public transportation and the behavior of passengers in choosing between various transportation modes, no study has investigated the mentioned relationship and the response of public transportation passengers with respect to fuel price and fares. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to evaluate the role of fare and gasoline price shocks on the behavioral response of passengers in the Tehran metropolitan using the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach.

The main objective of this study was to investigate the role of gas price and fare shocks on the behavioral response of passengers in the Tehran metropolitan using public transportation (metro, BRT, and bus) during the period of 2007-2018 using monthly data and Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models. The Global Vector Autoregressive Model (GVAR) model is one of the popular approaches to evaluating the relationships between economic entities. Compared to the traditional Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach, it provides a universal and practical modeling framework to perform quantitative analyzes on the relative importance of different impulses and various channels for the transmission mechanism of the shocks. In this context, this method includes a compact econometric framework that is specifically designed to explicitly model the interdependence between the various variables that enter the model. In particular, the structure of the GVAR model combines individual error correction models in such a way that it is possible to relate the internal variables related to an economic unit in the model to the corresponding external variables in another economic unit j (i≠j). In this case, it is possible to check and determine the desired pattern of economic units in a much more precise way. Individual models are linked together using a weight matrix; finally, the GVAR model can be solved for all units. In other words, the GVAR approach represents a method that is used to check the degree of interdependence between model variables through the analysis of the impulse response function.

This study attempted to answer two main questions about the occurrence of two shocks, including gasoline price and fare shocks, on the behavioral response of passengers in Tehran metropolitan to various public transportation modes. The first question stated that what is the consequence of a positive gasoline price shock on the demand for various modes of public transport (metro, BRT, and bus) in the Tehran metropolitan? In response to this question, the estimation results of the GVAR model indicated that when a positive shock in the price of gasoline happens, an increase in passenger demand for all three types of public transportation happens. The occurrence of a positive shock in the price of gasoline, metro, BRT, and bus passengers will increase. In other words, when a positive shock occurs in the price of gasoline, it causes people to use public transportation instead of private cars, and they will be more willing to use public transportation. This issue makes the policymakers in the public transportation system make the necessary arrangements to increase the carrying capacity when planning to respond to the fluctuations caused by the gasoline price shock and consider proper arrangements to divide this demand among all types of public transportation. The second question of this research was what effect does the occurrence of a positive shock in the fare price of each type of public transportation (metro, BRT, and bus) have on the demand for other public transportation in the Tehran metropolis? In response to this question, positive shocks on fares on all types of public transportation in the Tehran metropolis were investigated. The results of the study showed that when a positive shock in the metro fare occurs, the demand for metro passengers will be constant until the 20th month, and this indicated that part of the passengers’ demand for the metro is independent of the fare and demand for bus and metro will be decreasing. Moreover, by the occurrence of a positive shock in bus fares, the demand for bus passengers will decrease, and the excess demand will transmit to other modes like metro and BRT. This leads to the simultaneous increase in passengers of both transportation modes. In other words, by the occurrence of a positive shock in bus fares, the passengers would replace the metro and BRT as alternatives to the buses. Besides, from the eight months onwards, when a positive shock happens in BRT fares, the demand for the metro will increase while the demand for buses increases slightly. This result states that a part of the demand for BRT will transmit to the metro and bus as alternatives. In this circumstance, metro and bus will be replaced with BRT; however, a part of the BRT passengers will not change their choices, and the demand will increase from the fourth month onwards. Finally, it can be stated that the occurrence of positive shocks in metro fares will decrease the BRT and bus passengers, while a positive shock in BRT fares would increase the demand for metro, and the demand for BRT and bus will increase with a flatter slope.

The results of this study can have important implications for policymaking during the occurrence of shocks in demand for intra-city public transport in Tehran. Based on the results of the study, it is suggested that policymakers think of the necessary predictions to create the appropriate capacity to meet the demand fluctuations in urban public transportation in response to the internal and external shocks of the transportation system. In addition, when setting fares for any public transportation, the relevant authorities must consider the interdependence between demand and fares for other public transportation. Also, the price shock of gasoline and the upward trend of passengers using all three types of public transportation means that the increase and expansion of subway lines, BRT, and the renovation of the bus system in all areas of Tehran will be among the most important policy suggestions for the public transportation system in Tehran. Finally, it is suggested to the policymakers and planners in the public transportation system of the Tehran metropolitan to set up a real-time passenger monitoring system for all types of urban public transportation vehicles so that they can be aware of the occurrence of sudden fluctuations in the transportation system.

Today, security is one of the indicators of the quality of life in the city and plays a crucial role in improving and improving the quality of urban life, living comfortably, and achieving a sustainable city. Knowing about the sense of security of the residents of a community has an influential role in recognizing the challenges and solutions for the development of a community and working to strengthen its infrastructure. Many factors play a role in the formation and emergence of violent behaviors, among the most important of which are defenseless spaces that have various effects on urban spaces and the lives of citizens, which increase crimes and decrease citizens’ sense of security. It has the most impact. Defenseless spaces are dead from the point of view of protection but active and alive from the point of view of anomalous space issues, which become the place of occurrence of all kinds of urban crimes due to neglect, planning, and incorrect and simplistic planning. In this study, the role of defenseless urban spaces in the occurrence of crime has been identified and investigated, emphasizing the 9th district of Tehran.

he research method is based on library, documentary, and field studies and the statistical population of this research is the residents of the 9th district of Tehran municipality. In order to determine the sample size among the residents of the area, using Cochran’s formula, the necessary sample size of 150 people was obtained, which was randomly distributed among the residents of the region. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the designed questionnaires is 0.896 (higher than 0.7), which indicates the high reliability of the questionnaire questions and the internal correlation of the questions to measure the research variables. The results of the data obtained through the software ARC GIS, Expert Choice, Super Decisions, Excel, IDRISI, as well as Analytical Hierarchy (AHP), Analytical Network Model (ANP), TOPSIS, VIKOR, are examined, and the analysis is placed.

The research showed that about 56% of the residents have lived in this place for more than ten years, and it is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability. Industrial and military centers are among the uses that can increase the number of defenseless points during a crisis, so there is an inverse relationship between the number of defenseless points and the distance from these uses. In other words, the greater the distance from these uses, the fewer defenseless points. The criteria of social abnormality, lack of lighting facilities, and pollution have also won the first to third ranks, respectively. Therefore, the effective fields have an effect on creating and strengthening the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. According to the results obtained by examining the Vikor method’s conditions, both Vikor conditions have been violated. Therefore, a set of consensus solutions can be used to rank the options. It is common to base the ranking of options on the Vikor index. Thus, according to the VIKOR index, the neighborhood of Ostad Moin has the best situation among other neighborhoods in Region 9. Moreover, based on the findings of the research, the spatial, social, and psychological quality is directly related to the reality of the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. The ranking based on the Vicor index showed that the Ostad Moin neighborhood has the best condition among the other neighborhoods of the 9th district. The social anomaly with a beta of 0.398 has had the highest impact on spatial quality compared to inappropriate uses and lack of recreational space. The regression analysis results show that the spatial, social, and psychological quality at the level of (α<0.01) can predict the defenseless urban space of District 9 of Tehran Municipality. The research results indicate the insecurity and undesirability of the 9th district of Tehran  in terms of defenseless spaces, which have several indicators. The absence of a specific plan from related organizations for such spaces brings nothing but the escalation of violence, insecurity, increase in crime rates, and the departure of the native population of the neighborhood.

One of the necessary measures to reduce damage and adaptations is the optimal location of users. If urban uses are placed carefully, many costs created for the city, both in terms of health and in terms of time, will be saved. Urban density and urban infrastructure, including water, electricity, gas, telephone, city communication network, etc., play an essential role in the degree of vulnerability of the city. Flexibility in the form of the city, contiguity, and compatibility of uses with each other, proportional distribution of urban density, including residential density, population density, etc., having an efficient and hierarchical communication network, construction of infrastructure facilities and urban infrastructures in a reliable, resistant and capable manner. Restoration is one of the essential factors of urban development. On the one hand, the expansion of communication networks and urban infrastructures, the lack of observance of the most basic safety points in urban constructions, and the unplanned growth and development of the city have created the conditions for causing much damage in times of crisis. The final results of our study show that region 9 is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability.

Today, security is one of the indicators of the quality of life in the city and plays a crucial role in improving and improving the quality of urban life, living comfortably, and achieving a sustainable city. Knowing about the sense of security of the residents of a community has an influential role in recognizing the challenges and solutions for the development of a community and working to strengthen its infrastructure. Many factors play a role in the formation and emergence of violent behaviors, among the most important of which are defenseless spaces that have various effects on urban spaces and the lives of citizens, which increase crimes and decrease citizens’ sense of security. It has the most impact. Defenseless spaces are dead from the point of view of protection but active and alive from the point of view of anomalous space issues, which become the place of occurrence of all kinds of urban crimes due to neglect, planning, and incorrect and simplistic planning. In this study, the role of defenseless urban spaces in the occurrence of crime has been identified and investigated, emphasizing the 9th district of Tehran.

he research method is based on library, documentary, and field studies and the statistical population of this research is the residents of the 9th district of Tehran municipality. In order to determine the sample size among the residents of the area, using Cochran’s formula, the necessary sample size of 150 people was obtained, which was randomly distributed among the residents of the region. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the designed questionnaires is 0.896 (higher than 0.7), which indicates the high reliability of the questionnaire questions and the internal correlation of the questions to measure the research variables. The results of the data obtained through the software ARC GIS, Expert Choice, Super Decisions, Excel, IDRISI, as well as Analytical Hierarchy (AHP), Analytical Network Model (ANP), TOPSIS, VIKOR, are examined, and the analysis is placed.

The research showed that about 56% of the residents have lived in this place for more than ten years, and it is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability. Industrial and military centers are among the uses that can increase the number of defenseless points during a crisis, so there is an inverse relationship between the number of defenseless points and the distance from these uses. In other words, the greater the distance from these uses, the fewer defenseless points. The criteria of social abnormality, lack of lighting facilities, and pollution have also won the first to third ranks, respectively. Therefore, the effective fields have an effect on creating and strengthening the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. According to the results obtained by examining the Vikor method’s conditions, both Vikor conditions have been violated. Therefore, a set of consensus solutions can be used to rank the options. It is common to base the ranking of options on the Vikor index. Thus, according to the VIKOR index, the neighborhood of Ostad Moin has the best situation among other neighborhoods in Region 9. Moreover, based on the findings of the research, the spatial, social, and psychological quality is directly related to the reality of the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. The ranking based on the Vicor index showed that the Ostad Moin neighborhood has the best condition among the other neighborhoods of the 9th district. The social anomaly with a beta of 0.398 has had the highest impact on spatial quality compared to inappropriate uses and lack of recreational space. The regression analysis results show that the spatial, social, and psychological quality at the level of (α<0.01) can predict the defenseless urban space of District 9 of Tehran Municipality. The research results indicate the insecurity and undesirability of the 9th district of Tehran in terms of defenseless spaces, which have several indicators. The absence of a specific plan from related organizations for such spaces brings nothing but the escalation of violence, insecurity, increase in crime rates, and the departure of the native population of the neighborhood.

One of the necessary measures to reduce damage and adaptations is the optimal location of users. If urban uses are placed carefully, many costs created for the city, both in terms of health and in terms of time, will be saved. Urban density and urban infrastructure, including water, electricity, gas, telephone, city communication network, etc., play an essential role in the degree of vulnerability of the city. Flexibility in the form of the city, contiguity, and compatibility of uses with each other, proportional distribution of urban density, including residential density, population density, etc., having an efficient and hierarchical communication network, construction of infrastructure facilities and urban infrastructures in a reliable, resistant and capable manner. Restoration is one of the essential factors of urban development. On the one hand, the expansion of communication networks and urban infrastructures, the lack of observance of the most basic safety points in urban constructions, and the unplanned growth and development of the city have created the conditions for causing much damage in times of crisis. The final results of our study show that region 9 is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability.

Today, security is one of the indicators of the quality of life in the city and plays a crucial role in improving and improving the quality of urban life, living comfortably, and achieving a sustainable city. Knowing about the sense of security of the residents of a community has an influential role in recognizing the challenges and solutions for the development of a community and working to strengthen its infrastructure. Many factors play a role in the formation and emergence of violent behaviors, among the most important of which are defenseless spaces that have various effects on urban spaces and the lives of citizens, which increase crimes and decrease citizens’ sense of security. It has the most impact. Defenseless spaces are dead from the point of view of protection but active and alive from the point of view of anomalous space issues, which become the place of occurrence of all kinds of urban crimes due to neglect, planning, and incorrect and simplistic planning. In this study, the role of defenseless urban spaces in the occurrence of crime has been identified and investigated, emphasizing the 9th district of Tehran.

he research method is based on library, documentary, and field studies and the statistical population of this research is the residents of the 9th district of Tehran municipality. In order to determine the sample size among the residents of the area, using Cochran’s formula, the necessary sample size of 150 people was obtained, which was randomly distributed among the residents of the region. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the designed questionnaires is 0.896 (higher than 0.7), which indicates the high reliability of the questionnaire questions and the internal correlation of the questions to measure the research variables. The results of the data obtained through the software ARC GIS, Expert Choice, Super Decisions, Excel, IDRISI, as well as Analytical Hierarchy (AHP), Analytical Network Model (ANP), TOPSIS, VIKOR, are examined, and the analysis is placed.

The research showed that about 56% of the residents have lived in this place for more than ten years, and it is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability. Industrial and military centers are among the uses that can increase the number of defenseless points during a crisis, so there is an inverse relationship between the number of defenseless points and the distance from these uses. In other words, the greater the distance from these uses, the fewer defenseless points. The criteria of social abnormality, lack of lighting facilities, and pollution have also won the first to third ranks, respectively. Therefore, the effective fields have an effect on creating and strengthening the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. According to the results obtained by examining the Vikor method’s conditions, both Vikor conditions have been violated. Therefore, a set of consensus solutions can be used to rank the options. It is common to base the ranking of options on the Vikor index. Thus, according to the VIKOR index, the neighborhood of Ostad Moin has the best situation among other neighborhoods in Region 9. Moreover, based on the findings of the research, the spatial, social, and psychological quality is directly related to the reality of the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. The ranking based on the Vicor index showed that the Ostad Moin neighborhood has the best condition among the other neighborhoods of the 9th district. The social anomaly with a beta of 0.398 has had the highest impact on spatial quality compared to inappropriate uses and lack of recreational space. The regression analysis results show that the spatial, social, and psychological quality at the level of (α<0.01) can predict the defenseless urban space of District 9 of Tehran Municipality. The research results indicate the insecurity and undesirability of the 9th district of Tehran in terms of defenseless spaces, which have several indicators. The absence of a specific plan from related organizations for such spaces brings nothing but the escalation of violence, insecurity, increase in crime rates, and the departure of the native population of the neighborhood.

One of the necessary measures to reduce damage and adaptations is the optimal location of users. If urban uses are placed carefully, many costs created for the city, both in terms of health and in terms of time, will be saved. Urban density and urban infrastructure, including water, electricity, gas, telephone, city communication network, etc., play an essential role in the degree of vulnerability of the city. Flexibility in the form of the city, contiguity, and compatibility of uses with each other, proportional distribution of urban density, including residential density, population density, etc., having an efficient and hierarchical communication network, construction of infrastructure facilities and urban infrastructures in a reliable, resistant and capable manner. Restoration is one of the essential factors of urban development. On the one hand, the expansion of communication networks and urban infrastructures, the lack of observance of the most basic safety points in urban constructions, and the unplanned growth and development of the city have created the conditions for causing much damage in times of crisis. The final results of our study show that region 9 is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability.

Despite having potential and strengths, the old fabric of the cities has faced many changes over time and has gradually suffered from failure and disruption in various functional, economic, social, physical, communication, and environmental dimensions. Disturbance and chaos in the land use system, some environmental pollution, placement of parts of the fabric in the privacy of historical monuments and inadequate construction standards in it, the gradual withdrawal of capital and activity, and the replacement of residential function with very low-quality cause a decrease in the importance and value of the old fabric and it has become the identity maker of cities. Over time, this has led to the departure of groups with high financial power and belonging to the place and the replacement of low-income groups with no sense of belonging to the place and space. Since the old neighborhoods are a sign of the cultural and historical identity of the cities and their destruction is an ax on the roots of the identity of the residents, the necessity of taking care of these textures and organizing and revitalizing them is felt. Many policies and programs have recently been implemented to improve the quality and re-creation of disordered urban tissues. One of the new policies in urban development in general and in the regeneration of disordered urban contexts, in particular, is to use measures and projects to stimulate development to accelerate and facilitate the transformation process in these contexts. The drivers of development as a platform for social and economic functions increase the motivation to participate in the improvement and renovation process and also cause the desire of the private sector to invest in the desired context. In this approach, the effects on existing uses can be seen in the approach of stimulating development without the need for intervention. Significant investments in understanding the context and the appropriate stimulus element of hardware or software are adopted by the main goals and wishes of the local community. Development-stimulating processes create dynamism through the recycling of unused land or existing ruined places of the fabric to strengthen activities and social relations, such as space for leisure time and job creation. Also, without the need for massive investments, these processes create the ability to revive worn-out fabrics, which are historical and valuable in four physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions, which also improve the quality of the elements and their surrounding environment in apositive  way.

Regarding the purpose and nature of the research, this article is in the category of applied research. In order to achieve the goals and answer the questions, the evaluation research method has been used for evaluation after implementing the development stimulus project. SPSS software was used for quantitative data analysis, and MAXQDA software was used for qualitative data analysis. This way, the results of document studies and then analysis of the interviews conducted by this software (MAXQDA) will be presented. According to documentary and library studies, field studies and interviews conducted in this field were identified using 5-dimension and 41-category MAXQDA software to identify the effectiveness of development-stimulating projects to realize sustainable urban regeneration.

In this research, the measured dimensions have been examined in five physical-spatial, cultural-emotional, economic, environmental, and managerial dimensions. According to the results of the t-test, it can be seen that each indicator of the development stimulating projects has different effects on the realization of the regeneration of the central area of ​​Sanandaj city. For example, in the physical dimension, the indicators of efficient urban furniture with numerical value (3.7), efficient sidewalk (3) and accessibility (2.8); In the economic dimension, respectively, the indicators of land and housing price changes with numerical value (4.4), showcasing local jobs and entrepreneurship (3.8) and the number of employees (3.4); In the social-cultural dimension, respectively, indicators of local empowerment with numerical value (4.9), giving local, native and urban identity (4.3) and social capacity building and increasing social and urban security (4); In the environmental dimension, according to the indicators of urban waste collection and disposal with a numerical value (4.9), increase of urban and local green spaces (3) and segregation of waste in the environment (2.7) and in the management dimension according to the indicators of providing facilities And urban services with numerical value (4), use of new technology (2.2) and access to efficient public transportation (2) have the greatest impact on the realization of urban regeneration policies.

One-sample t-test was used to measure the effectiveness of development-stimulating projects in the five physical-spatial, cultural-social, economic, environmental, and managerial dimensions of re-creating valuable heritage tissues implemented in the central area of ​​Sanandaj city and measuring the improvement of the quality of the environment from the residents' point of view. The results of the findings showed that in the physical-spatial dimension, the criteria of efficient urban furniture and efficient sidewalk were evaluated positively with coefficients (of 4.162 and 2.954), respectively, and the level of residents' satisfaction with the projects of this dimension with a weighted average of (2.518) the average is down. In the social-cultural dimension, 13 criteria were evaluated. Only four criteria, social and urban security, local empowerment, social capacity building, and promotion of local, native, and urban identity, have a significant relationship with the creation of stimulating projects and the level of satisfaction of the residents of the central area of ​​Sanandaj city The social effects of such projects are desirable. In the economic dimension, the only measure of the stability of land and housing prices is positive in relation to the development stimulating projects and has a significant relationship. The examination of economic categories showed that developing prosperity and investments in various businesses can gradually increase the demand for life and work in this area. This factor will automatically lead to the boom of construction and the renovation of the physical fabric of the neighborhoods. Still, the residents are not satisfied with the economic effects of the projects, and they agree on this issue. Moreover, in two environmental and management dimensions, the development of stimulating projects have brought positive impacts. However, the weighted average of these dimensions with (2 and 1) respectively indicates the residents’ dissatisfaction with this area. According to the findings, among the examined dimensions, the residents have more desires and satisfaction towards the criteria of the cultural-social and physical-spatial dimensions than other dimensions. This seems to be the homogeneity of the residents in terms of ethnicity, language, religion, and common culture. However, the management structures still need to meet the needs of the residents due to the lack of proper urban services, the lack of necessary facilities, and the factors that have been evaluated as weak.

In an age that we consider the age of knowledge and the economy to be a knowledge-based economy and competition to be global, we are witnessing intense competition between countries at the international level and cities at the national level. The flow of competition has a dynamic nature that for success in the future, we must use new and transformative competitive methods, which is a reason for the progress and development of cities based on knowledge. According to the components of competitiveness, to be able to understand the concept of competitiveness correctly, we must measure the performance of the macro economy and the standard of living of the society based on the productivity of the production factors. According to the research obtained, a competitive economy is where people enjoy a high level of living and employment standards and knowledge and innovation are among the driving forces in the growth and development of cities. Therefore, in this research, we try to analyze the key factors and the main driving forces affecting the formation of the knowledge-based economy of Kerman city and then its main elements and factors by designing possible scenarios in the future, the path of the region's economic progress will be presented with a future research approach. Therefore, the main question of the research is: What will be the key drivers of the impact of competitiveness components on the formation of the knowledge-based economy of Kerman in the future (10-year horizon 2031)?

In the current study, the research method is applied, and from the perspective of the nature of the work, a combination of descriptive-analytical and econometric methods was used in matching the data and in explaining the structure as a future research approach. In this way, the most important factors affecting the formation of a knowledge-based economy in Kerman city have been investigated. Information was collected by document method (library resources, scientific journals) and field method (using a questionnaire tool). In this research, the statistical population of 23 experts consisted of city managers (mayors, deputy mayors, heads of organizations, and managers of urban areas), members of the city's Islamic Council, civil engineering experts in the governorate and urban affairs office and the governorate councils of Kerman, Sciences and Technology Park of Kerman, Administrator of Industry, Mining and Trade of Kerman, Faculty member of Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, and other universities of this city, together with professors of Shahid Beheshti University and specialists of the urban area.In the current research, structured interviews with several experts in the fields of the knowledge-based economy and urban competitiveness were carried out using the Delphi method to identify the key factors and then by combining the factors obtained from the interviews and the studied documents in the background,  the validity and reliability of the variables by experts were confirmed. Finally, the factors were evaluated in the form of a prospective research questionnaire.

The most important factors affecting the promotion of competitiveness components in the knowledge-based economy of Kerman city were identified by using field and library studies. Furthermore, the degree of influence or effectiveness of the identified factors was determined using quantitative future research methods and the use of Micmac software. Therefore, the findings of the research show that among the 29 key factors of the impact of competitiveness components on the urban knowledge-based economy, after examining the indicators and extracting the key influencing factors (direct and indirect), seven key drivers are "transparency and coherence in the ruling economic policies, laws and regulations", "Creating employment and creating new fields of activity for efficient and expert workforce", "training human resources to provide the necessary human capital for a knowledge-based economy", "Clarifying the economy", and "making it healthy and preventing actions", "Corrupt activities and fields in the monetary, commercial, currency", "Increasing people's use of domestic goods and creating a competitive advantage in price for exporting products in global markets", "Empowering the workforce and increasing the share of human capital through promoting education, skills", "creativity and entrepreneurship with a focus on growth Productivity and competitiveness in the economy" and "Development and strengthening of creativity in society (reliance of development on creativity in society)" have had the most significant impact on the promotion of competitive components in the urban knowledge-based economy in Kerman city.

In a summary of past research, it can be mentioned that competitiveness is a key term in the process of economic activities. To have a dynamic and efficient city, we must pay attention to all the components of competitiveness in line with the urban knowledge-based economy and apply them. Since Iran is far from the conditions of a knowledge-based economy at the international level, arrangements should be made in various fields such as innovation and creativity, investing in human capital, acquiring technology and strengthening and equipping infrastructure, setting up business environments and employment and entrepreneurship at the national level and in urban areas to provide access to knowledge and create a suitable environment by using communication and information tools in economic activities and investment in the competitive environment of the city. Now, with the rapid changes in cities based on the rapid growth of science, knowledge, and technology, according to the new phenomenon of globalization, we are witnessing intense competition between the cities of the world. The main driver of the economic growth and development of the city is the production, distribution, and application of knowledge in all the city’s economic activities. Looking to the future in this research, we aim to make a suitable model for the progress and development of the city based on the components of competitiveness and in line with the knowledge-based economy to move the cities towards progress in a competitive world.