نشریه اقتصاد و تجارت نوین
سال هفدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 56، پاییز 1401)

In recent years, human development has gained great importance among the countries over the world. Achieving higher human development requires identifying the factors affecting it. Economic freedom and democracy are among the effective factors discussed in this research. In this paper, using panel data, the effect of economic freedom and democracy on human development in selected OPEC countries is investigated over the period 2005-2020. For this purpose, Generalized Least Squares (GLS) econometric method has been used. The estimation results show that the variables of democracy and economic freedom have a positive and significant effect on human development. In addition, the variables of population, employment of women, and employment in industry have a positive and significant effect, and the variable of urbanization has a negative and significant effect on the human development index.In recent years, human development has gained great importance among the countries over the world. Achieving higher human development requires identifying the factors affecting it. Economic freedom and democracy are among the effective factors discussed in this research. In this paper, using panel data, the effect of economic freedom and democracy on human development in selected OPEC countries is investigated over the period 2005-2020. For this purpose, Generalized Least Squares (GLS) econometric method has been used. The estimation results show that the variables of democracy and economic freedom have a positive and significant effect on human development. In addition, the variables of population, employment of women, and employment in industry have a positive and significant effect, and the variable of urbanization has a negative and significant effect on the human development index.

In the face of frequent stock market turbulences that lead to losses for investors, it is necessary to determine the factors that are able to predict the stock index as accurately as possible. These factors depend on economic, political, social, cultural, etc. conditions in each country. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between Iran's stock index and global economic activity. Therefore, Kilian's economic index is used as an index to estimate global economic activity. After the definition and calculation method of this index, in the rest of this article, it examines the effect of shocks on real economic activity on Iran's stock index. Therefore, by applying the structural vector autoregression estimation method (SVAR) during the time period from 2001:01 to 2018:03 and using instantaneous response functions and analysis of variance, the effect of the variable of global economic activity on Iran's stock index has been investigated. Also, the variables of oil price, global oil production and exchange rate have been used as auxiliary and effective variables on the stock index. The results of the instantaneous reaction functions show that in the short term, the shocks of real global economic activity have had a positive effect on the stock index from the beginning of the period to the end of the period, and in other words, the stock index has shown a positive reaction to the shock of this variable.

The low-income elasticity of demand for raw materials and traditional goods such as crude oil in comparison to industrial goods, the monopoly structure of the market in industrial countries, and the competitive conditions in the supply of primary materials, and the technological advances toward economization of consumption of imported raw materials have caused the terms of trade to the detriment of developing countries, the exporter of raw materials is in progress. This is if this group of countries, by improving the componets a knowledge-based economy, can change the structure of export goods toward the new, varied, high-value industrial products, and the negative effects of the reducing the relative price of raw materials exports and improving the terms of trade. Therefore, the present study tried to investigate the effect of economic incentives and institutional regime, the system of innovations, education and human resource development, and the information and communication technology infrastructure as components a knowledge-based economy on the terms of trade in the selected group of developing countries and also, a selection of developed or emerging oil-producing countries during the period 2003-2018. For this purpose, the research model was estimated using dynamic panel data and Generalized Moment Method. However, the coefficients of real effective exchange rate variables and the abundance of resources in selected developing countries are negative and significant. Therefore, changing the structure of production from source-oriented to innovation-oriented in these countries is recommended.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of financial development in the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and data for the period 1361-1396. To this end, several indices of financial development have been aggregated into an overall (combined) index, using the principal component analysis method. The results of the cointegration analysis show that energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. Also, the effect of the interaction between financial development and energy consumption on economic growth is positive and statistically significant, which indicates that the effect of energy consumption on economic growth is not independent of the level of financial development; such that as financial development improves, the positive relationship between economic growth and energy consumption becomes stronger. In this regard, financial development, as a catalyst for modern technological progress, can effectively promote the improvement of energy efficiency. Accordingly, the higher the level of financial development, a unit increase in energy consumption leads to a greater increase in economic growth. In other words, financial development can intensify the positive growth effects of energy consumption. On the other hand, the empirical results show that an increase in the share of foreign trade in GDP enhances economic growth, while the effect of inflation on economic growth is negative.

One of the important issues of Iran's economy in the last half century has been the high growth of liquidity, which shows the manipulation of money by the government and monetary authorities. One view considers the weakness of the rule of law as the cause of this problem, but another view states the causal relationship in the opposite direction and believes that money and the benefits derived from it are a factor in weakening the rule of law. Theoretically, there is a bilateral relationship between money creation and the rule of law. On the one hand, it is the laws that determine how much money should be created, the extent powers of monetary authorities, and how its benefits are distributed. On the other hand, the growth of liquidity and inflation take the structure of the economy out of the free market process and affect the rule of law. This study seeks to investigate the causal relationship, the existence of a long-term relationship and the type of relationship between these two variables in Iran using data from the rule of law index and liquidity in the period 1996-2020 with Toda and Yamamoto causality method, band test and autoregression vector method. It was concluded that the volume of liquidity in Iran has been a factor in weakening the rule of law.

Paying attention to the importance of international trade, analyzing and recognizing the country's trade relations and examining its obstacles and incentives play an effective role in the path of economic development, because international trade affects the growth rate of the economy through access to foreign markets. Technology has played a significant role in shaping trade patterns, and there is a significant relationship between trade and technology in empirical literature. It is important to evaluate the effect of distance and technological gap as a variable that can play as an obstacle or an incentive for the country's trade relations. Therefore, the gap in technological progress can be one of the most important determining bilateral trade and economic growth between countries. In the present study, 43 trading partner countries of Iran, which had the most trade with Iran between 2001 and 2020, were selected, and the relationship between the technology gap and the industrial trade was estimated using the gravity model and Panel-ARDL regression. The results showed that the gravity model is in place in Iran's economy in the long term. Also, in the long term, the technology gap between Iran and the commercial side, based on the index of research and development costs, will lead to a decrease in the trade of the industrial sector of Iran and its commercial partners. reducing Iran's technology gap with trading partner countries, it increases industrial trade