- سال هفتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 13، پاییز و زمستان 1401)
- تاریخ انتشار: 1401/09/01
- تعداد عناوین: 13
پیچیدگی اقتصادی می تواند به عنوان آینه و منعکس کننده دانش ومهارت نیروی انسانی یک کشور در فرآیند تولید، به منظور تولید محصولاتی پیشرفته و پیچیده تر در عرصه بین الملل، به منظور رسیدن به رشد اقتصادی بالاتر و به تبع آن قرار گرفتن در مسیر پیشرفت و توسعه اقتصادی، است؛ رشد اقتصادی ای که با بکارگیری نیروی ماهر و دارای دانش، می تواند سطح رفاه آنها را افزایش داده و نابرابری درآمدی را کاهش دهد.روش
لذا مطالعه حاضر، به بررسی تاثیر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر نابرابری درآمد در ایران طی دوره زمانی 99-1368 با استفاده از روش خود توزیع با وقفه های گسترده (ARDL)، پرداخته است.
نتایج نظری بیانگر این است که هر چه ایران ازنظر شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی ارتقا یابد می تواند با بهره گیری از دانش متنوع به سطح بالاتری از تخصص دست یابد و محصولاتی پیشرفته و پیچیده تر تولید کند. این تخصص بالاتر توسط پیچیدگی اقتصادی به دست می آید با افزایش بهره وری سبب بهبود درآمد افراد فقیر جامعه و درنتیجه کاهش نابرابری درآمد خواهد شد.
نتایج بیانگر این است شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی در ایران بر نابرابری درآمد اثر منفی و معناداری داشته است.کلیدواژگان: نابرابری درآمد، پیچیدگی اقتصادی، روش خود توزیع با وقفه های گسترده، ایران
تحلیل تاثیر شوک های کلان اقتصادی بر متغیرهای سیاستی پولی و مالی در ایران با رویکرد قاعده تیلور: روش BVARصفحات 21-48هدف
تحلیل تاثیرتکانه های کلان اقتصادی برمتغیرهای سیاستی پولی و مالی در ایران با رویکرد قاعده تیلور در دوره زمانی 1399-1355.روش
متدلوژی مورد استفاده خودرگرسیون برداری بیزین (BVAR) است. با استفاده ازشاخص های Theilو RMSE مشخص گردید تابع پیشین لیترمن-مینسوتا دقیق ترین پیش بینی ارایه می دهد.
یافته های پژوهش مبتنی برتوابع واکنش آنی درمدل اول نشان می دهد رفتارسیاست گذاران پولی نسبت به تکانه شکاف تولید در کوتاه مدت سیاست انبساطی می باشد و در بلندمدت اثرتکانه از بین خواهد رفت. نتایج مدل دوم نشان می دهد سیاست گذاران مالی نسبت به تکانه شکاف تولید در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت سیاست انبساط را اجراکرده اند. بانک مرکزی نسبت به تکانه های تورم درکوتاه مدت رفتار انقباضی ازخود نشان داده ودر بلندمدت اثرتکانه از بین خواهد رفت. سیاستگذاران دولتی نسبت به تکانه شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده در کوتاه مدت رفتارانقباضی و در بلندمدت سیاست انبساطی اجرا کرده است.همچنین با ایجاد تکانه درنرخ ارز حقیقی اثرتکانه برنرخ رشدپایه پولی و مخارج دولت به ترتیب درکوتاه مدت منفی و مثبت و در بلندمدت اثرتکانه ماندگار نبوده و از بین خواهد رفت. نتایج تجزیه واریانس نشان می دهد در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت شکاف تولید بیشترین تغییرات نرخ رشد پایه پولی ومخارج دولت را توضیح می دهد.
رفتار سیاستگذاران پولی و مالی نسبت به شکاف تولید صلاحدیدی و به تورم قاعده مند و نسبت به نرخ ارز حقیقی به ترتیب سیاست انقباضی و سیاست انبساطی است.کلیدواژگان: سیاست های پولی، سیاست های مالی، آنالیز بیزین، قاعده تیلور
الگوسازی تاثیر نوسانات و نااطمینانی نرخ ارز بر واردات بخش کشاورزی ایران (رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توضیحی غیرخطی NARDL)صفحات 49-72هدف
مطالعه حاضر اثر نااطمینانی نرخ ارز بازار آزاد (غیررسمی) بر واردات بخش کشاورزی ایران در دوره زمانی 1396-1371 را با استفاده از داده های سالانه مورد بررسی قرار داده است.روش
الگوی واریانس ناهمسانی شرطی تعمیم یافته نمایی (EGARCH) برای استخراج نوسانات نرخ ارز و از واریانس شرطی برای تخمین نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و از دو روش خود توضیحی با وقفه های توزیعی (ARDL) و خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توضیحی غیرخطی (NARDL) برای برآورد تاثیر نوسانات و نااطمینانی ارزی بر واردات بخش کشاورزی استفاده شده است.
نتایج حاکی از آن است که نرخ ارز بازار آزاد همواره تاثیر مثبت و افزایشی بر ارزش واردات بخش کشاورزی (که عمدتا کالاهای نهاده ای و واسطه ای) دارد. علاوه بر آن، بررسی ارتباط غیرخطی میان نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و واردات بخش کشاورزی نشان می دهد که نااطمینانی مثبت (افزایشی) ارز، اثر کاهشی بر واردات بخش کشاورزی دارد و نااطمینانی منفی (کاهشی) اثر افزایشی بر واردات بخش کشاورزی داشته است.
نااطمینانی نرخ ارز باید به عنوان یک مسیله مهم از سوی سیاستگذاران اقتصادی برای کاهش ریسک جریان های تجاری مدنظر قرار گیرد. استفاده از ابزارهایی پوشش ریسک نرخ ارز، شفاف کردن سیاست ها ارزی دولت برای کاهش ریسک ناشی از نوسانات و نااطمینانی نرخ ارز برای تامین جریان مستمر نهاده های وارداتی کشاورزی پیشنهاد می شود.کلیدواژگان: واردات کشاورزی، نااطمینانی ارزی، الگوی خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توضیحی غیرخطی، نرخ ارز، آثار نامتقارن
تاثیر متغیرهای نهادی و فرهنگی در جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی (مورد مطالعه: منتخبی از کشورهای درحال توسعه)صفحات 73-90هدف
سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی یکی از مهم ترین عوامل ایجاد رشد و توسعه اقتصادی در اغلب کشورهای جهان است. توجه به پایه های فرهنگی و نهادی از ارکان و فرآیند تاثیرگذار در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی محسوب می شود. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر متغیرهای نهادی و فرهنگی در جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی در گروه منتخب از کشورهای درحال توسعه است.روش
برای بررسی موضوع شامل 16 کشور، در گروه کشورهای درحال توسعه با بهره گیری از داده های ترکیبی و استخراج شده از داده های بانک جهانی در طی بازه زمانی 2018-1991 با استفاده از رویکرد گشتاور تعمیم یافته سیستمی مدل برآورد شده است.
نتایج برآورد مدل های پژوهش نشان داد که شاخص های فرهنگی و عوامل نهادی بر جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی کشورهای درحال توسعه اثری مثبت و معنادار دارد.
باتوجه به استدلال و شرایط مطروحه نتیجه گیری می شود شاخص های فرهنگی و عوامل نهادی بر جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی کشورهای درحال توسعه اثری مثبت و معنادار دارد؛ بنابراین می توان گفت شاخص های فرهنگی و عوامل نهادی مناسب در جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و بهبود رشد اقتصادی نقش موثری دارد.کلیدواژگان: رشد اقتصادی، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، عوامل نهادی، عوامل فرهنگی
بررسی رابطه پویا بین بیت کوین با شاخص سهام، طلا و دلار در ایران: کاربردی از رویکرد همدوسی و تحلیل موجکصفحات 91-109هدف
هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی تحلیل هم جهتی روند تغییرات قیمت بیت کوین، طلا، سهام و دلار در ایران است.روش
جهت تحقق این هدف، از تحلیل همدوسی و رویکرد موجک، هم حرکتی و ارتباط دوبه دوی این بازارها در اقتصاد ایران برای در دوره زمانی شهریور 1390 تا دی ماه 1400 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.
بر اساس نتایج حرکت مشترک میان بازار بیت کوین و سهام در ایران در دوره های مختلف در جهت های متفاوتی بوده است. هم حرکتی بین بازار بیت کوین- نرخ ارز و بیت کوین- طلا مشابه بوده و در دوره های کوتاهمدت و میان مدت بیش از دوره بلندمدت بوده است. قوی ترین همدوسی بین طلا و ارز بوده است.
در افق های کوتاه مدت در بازه زمانی 1390 تا 1392 و 1397 تا 1399 بازدهی بیت کوین نوسانات شدیدی داشته است، که نمایانگر انرژی بیشتر و در نتیجه انتروپی بالاتر بازدهی بیت کوین است. با توجه به همدوسی قوی تر بین بازارهای بیت کوین، طلا و دلار و همدوسی نسبتا پایین بین بیت کوین و بازدهی سهام لازم است سیاست گذاران اقتصادی در سیاست های پولی خود اثرگذاری رمز ارز بیت کوین را مدنظر قرار دهند بویژه اینکه بیت کوین متغیر برونزایی است که با پدیده سرایت مالی می تواند سیاست های پولی بانک مرکزی را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد.کلیدواژگان: بیت کوین، بازار طلا، تبدیل موجک، همحرکتی
سویه های رفتاری مدیران از جمله خوش بینی، بیش اطمینانی و کوته بینی می تواندضمن بهبود عملکرد مالی شرکت، رفتار و نوع تصمیمات آن ها را در سازمان تحت الشعاع قرار دهد. لحن گزارشگری مالی تحت تاثیر این ویژگی های رفتاری است. لحن خوش بینانه در گزارشگری زاییده نوعی سوگیری ادراکی و تحریف از واقعیت هاست که باعث خواهد شد،گزارشگری از شفافیت کمتری برای سهامداران برخوردار باشد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی تاثیر سویه های رفتاری مدیران (خوش بینی، بیش اطمینانی و کوته بینی) بر لحن خوش بینانه گزارشگری مالی است.روش
روش پژوهش حاضراز منظر نتیجه اجرا، از نوع کاربردی، از منظر فرآیند اجرا (یا نوع داده ها)، از نوع تحلیل محتوای کمی است.نمونه آماری شامل 115 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در فاصله زمانی 1390 تا 1399 است. برای اندازه گیری لحن خوش بینانه از روش فراوانی واژگان استفاده شد و به منظورآزمون فرضیه های پژوهش،روش رگرسیون چندگانه با داده های ترکیبی بکاررفت.
نتایج پژوهش نشان داد، خوش بینی و بیش اطمینانی مدیران بر لحن خوش بینانه گزارشگری مالی تاثیر معناداری دارد.اما کوته بینی مدیریت بر لحن خوش بینانه تاثیری ندارد.
با افزایش خوش بینی و بیش اطمینانی مدیران، لحن خوش بینانه گزارشگری مالی بیشتر می شود. به عبارتی مدیران خوش بین و بیش اطمینان، به دلیل باورها و عقایدی که نسبت به مسایل آتی شرکت دارند، از لحن خوش بینانه در گزارشگری مالی استفاده می کنند.کلیدواژگان: خوش بینی، بیش اطمینانی، کوته بینی، لحن خوش بینانه
در سال های اخیر نقش بازارهای مالی و بویژه بازار سهام به عنوان یکی از منابع تامین مالی طرح ها و پروژه های سرمایه گذاری حایز اهمیت است. همچنین اثرات رونق و روکود این بازارها بر اقتصاد کشور مورد توجه است.روش
در تحقیق حاضر اعمال سیاست پولی با ابزار رشد پایه پولی روی متغیرهای شکاف تولید، شکاف تورم، تغییرات نرخ ارز با داده های فصلی دوره زمانی 1384 تا 1398 و با بکارگیری قاعده مک کالم بررسی می شود و سپس تاثیرگذاری شوک های پولی روی شاخص قیمت سهام بر مبنای مدل مارکوف سوییچینگ مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار می گیرد.
نتایج نشان می دهد رفتار سیاست پولی و شوک های پولی در هر دوره زمانی بر شاخص قیمت سهام رفتار سازگار و تاثیر یکسانی ندارد و در واقع اعمال سیاست پولی بصورت توانمند شاخص قیمت سهام را تحت تاثیر قرار نمی دهد. همچنین یافته ها بیانگر این است که پس از گذشت یک یا حداکثر سه فصل یک چرخش در وضعیت اقتصاد ایران رخ می دهد و بصورت مداوم دوره بین رونق و رکود و سیاست ها بین فعال و منفعل چرخش می یابند.
با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده در اقتصاد ایران در دوره مورد بررسی، شاهد پایداری و دوام طولانی مدت یک رژیم رونق یا رکود نیستیم.کلیدواژگان: سیاست پولی، شاخص قیمت سهام، قاعده مک کالم، مدل مارکوف سوئیچینگ
هدف از این مطالعه تجزیه وتحلیل رابطه بین سرمایه فکری و عملکرد مالی شرکت های دارویی پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است.روش
با توجه به داده های 26 شرکت دارویی پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در فاصله زمانی 1390 تا 1399 سرمایه فکری شرکت های دارویی به روش ارزش افزوده ضریب فکری اندازه گیری شده است. برای تحلیل تاثیر سرمایه فکری بر عملکرد مالی شرکت های دارویی از تحلیل رگرسیون پانلی استفاده شده است. در این راستا پس از آزمون مانایی برای اجتناب از رگرسیون کاذب، برقراری فروض کلاسیک بررسی گردید و معادلات رگرسیون با توجه به ناهمسانی واریانس اجزای اخلال و خودهمبستگی سریالی اجزای اخلال، به روش FGLS مورد برآورد قرار گرفت.
عملکرد سرمایه فکری شرکت های دارویی منتخب به طورکلی تحت تاثیر کارایی سرمایه انسانی است. متوسط روش ارزش افزوده ضریب فکری برای اغلب شرکت ها روند صعودی را داشته است. بر اساس نتایج رگرسیون پانلی، می توان مشاهده کرد کارایی سرمایه به کار گرفته شده، کارایی سرمایه انسانی و کارایی سرمایه ساختاری بر عملکرد مالی شرکت های دارویی تاثیر مثبت دارند. بااین حال، کارایی سرمایه به کار گرفته شده تاثیر بیشتری بر عملکرد مالی شرکت های دارویی دارد.
شرکت های دارویی باید برای سودآوری بالاتر، از سرمایه های مالی و فیزیکی خود استفاده کنند.کلیدواژگان: سرمایه فکری، عملکرد مالی، شرکت های داروئی
بررسی الگوی ارتباطی بین رفتارهای گذشته و سواد مالی با قصد سرمایه گذاری در بازار سهام با نقش میانجی متغیرهای فردیصفحات 173-189هدف
هدف از این پژوهش بررسی الگوی ارتباطی بین رفتارهای گذشته و سواد مالی با قصد سرمایه گذاری در بازار سهام با نقش میانجی متغیرهای فردی بوده است.روش
این تحقیق از نظر هدف، پژوهشی کاربردی و در دسته تحقیق های توصیفی- علی قرار دارد. قلمرو موضوعی تحقیق در حوزه رفتاری مالی است و از نظر موضوعی در حوزه بررسی الگوی ارتباطی بین رفتارهای گذشته و سواد مالی با قصد سرمایه گذاری در بازار سهام با نقش میانجی متغیرهای فردی است. جامعه مورد پژوهش شامل سرمایه گذاران بورس اوراق بهادار در شهر اصفهان بوده که برای سنجش وضعیت موجود از پرسشنامه 20 سوالی استفاده شد که پس از تایید روایی و پایایی جهت جمع آوری داده ها مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. در این تحقیق برای بررسی روابط بین اجزاء مدل از معادلات ساختاری استفاده شده است. از نرم افزار لیزرل برای تجزیه و تحلیل فرضیه ها استفاده شده است.
با توجه به تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها نتایج حاکی از آن بوده است که نگرش، هنجارهای ذهنی، کنترل رفتاری ادراک شده و رفتار گذشته تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر قصد سرمایه گذاری در بازار سهام دارد. رفتار گذشته، سواد مالی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر نگرش دارد و سواد مالی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر کنترل رفتاری ادراک شده دارد. رفتار گذشته و سواد مالی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر قصد سرمایه گذاری در بازار سهام از طریق نگرش دارد و سواد مالی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر قصد سرمایه گذاری در بازار سهام از طریق کنترل رفتاری ادراک شده دارد.
نتایج پژوهش حاکی از تایید تمام فرضیات به جزء فرضیه چهارم است؛ یعنی رفتار گذشته تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر قصد سرمایه گذاری در بازار سهام ندارد.کلیدواژگان: سواد مالی، رفتار گذشته، کنترل رفتاری
هدف این پژوهش بررسی عوامل مرتبط با تمایلات سرمایه گذاران به بازار سرمایه و سطح بندی آنها با روش الگوسازی ساختاری- تفسیری و تحلیل بازگشتی است.روش
استفاده از تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی با بهره گیری از روش تیوری زمینه یابی جهت استخراج شاخص ها، سطح بندی عوامل با استفاده از الگوسازی ساختاری- تفسیری و سپس استخراج الگوی بازگشتی و تحلیل مسیر و برازش نهایی مدل با استفاده از نرم افزار Amos است
نتایج تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی 46 مقوله را در 6 بعد، عوامل علی، زمینه ای، محوری، مداخله گر، راهبردها، پیامدها شناسایی و در ادامه نتایج مدل ساختاری- تفسیری عوامل را در 5 سطح از پایین به بالا که در اولین سطح عوامل علی و در آخرین سطح پیامدها دسته بندی شد. نتایج بررسی تحلیل مسیر تاکید اصلی بر اثرات غیرمستقیم دو متغیر زمینه ای و مداخله گر است. یافته ها نشان دهنده برازش مناسب مدل نیز است.
در راستای هدف اصلی پژوهش نتایج به دست آمده از یافته نشان دهنده بار عاملی بالا به ترتیب در شاخص های شخصیت و نگرش سرمایه گذار، هوش هیجانی سرمایه گذار، ترجیحات و علایق سرمایه گذار، برنامه ریزی کلان دولتی، هرم نیازهای مازلو، امنیت خاطر سرمایه گذار، زیان گریزی فرد سرمایه گذار، تجربه فرد سرمایه گذار، هوش تجاری سرمایه گذار هست که این موضوع نشان می دهد شاخص های ذکر شده از درجه اهمیت بالاتری برخوردار هستند.کلیدواژگان: تمایلات سرمایه گذاران، مالی رفتاری، مدل بازگشتی
هدف اصلی تحقیق مقایسه اثرات رشد عرضه پول بر تورم کشورهای درحال توسعه نفتی و کشورهای توسعه یافته است.روش
در جهت دستیابی به اهداف تحقیق از دو رگوه اقتصاد کشورهای توسعه یافته و در حال توسعه نفتی در بازه زمانی 2019-2001 و از روش اقتصاد سنجی GMM استفاده شده است.
تاثیر رشد عرضه پول بر تورم کشورهای در حال توسعه نفتی بیشتر از کشورهای توسعه یافته است و مهمترین دلیل این امر می تواند بالا بودن انتظارات تورمی در این گروه از کشورها باشد؛ بطوریکه انتظارات تورمی بیشترین اثرگذاری را بر تورم کشورهای نفتی دارد در حالیکه بر تورم کشورهای توسعه یافته از لحاظ آماری اثرگذار نیست.
سه عامل انتظارات تورمی، رضد عرضه پول و رشد اقتصادی اندک مهمترین علت تورم در کشورهای در حال توسعه نفتی است. در این راستا این مطالعه پیشنهاد می دهد جهت کنترل تورم کشورهای در حال توسعه نفتی تنها بر صادرات نفت تمرکز نکنند و با تنوع سازی سبد صادراتی ضمن افزایش رشد اقتصادی، انتظارات تورمی و تغییرات نقدینگی حاصل از تغییرات درآمد نفتی را که از طریق تغییرات بودجه منجر می شوند را کنترل کرده و تورم را مهار نمایند.کلیدواژگان: پول، تورم، انتظارات تورمی، داده های تابلویی
سرمایه گذاران در بازار سرمایه به دنبال دستیابی و به کارگیری استراتژی هایی هستند که به مدد آن، بتوانند بر چالش های موجود در بازار فایق آیند. از جمله عوامل مطرح، سرعت تغییرات سود است که عدم شناسایی آن، زمینه ساز تضعیف تحلیل صورت های مالی، واکنش افراطی سرمایه گذاران، عدم تخصیص بهینه پرتفوی توسط آن ها و به تبع، افزایش نوسانات پرتفوی سهام است. از این رو، هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی رابطه بین سرعت تغییرات سود و نوسانات پرتفوی سهام است.روش
با توجه به ویژگی ها و اطلاعات قابل دسترس، تعداد 87 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران از سال 1388 تا 1399 مهیا گردید. برای اندازه گیری متغیر نوسانات پرتفوی سهام، از مدل وانگ و همکاران (2010) و متغیر سرعت تغییرات سود، از مدل کورونن (2013) استفاده گردید. همچنین آزمون فرضیه های پژوهش نیز به کمک مدل رگرسیون حداقل مربعات تعمیم یافته صورت پذیرفت.
نتایج حاصل موید این است بین سرعت تغییرات مثبت و منفی سود با نوسانات پرتفوی سهام رابطه معناداری وجود دارد.
نوسانات پرتفوی سهام موردتوجه بسیاری از سرمایه گذاران و سیاستگذاران حوزه پولی و مالی قرار گرفته است. افزایش دامنه نوسانات پرتفوی سهام منجر به تضعیف کارکردهای بازارهای مالی می شود به نحوی که تغییرات در قالبی ناپایدار و نامنظم صورت می پذیرند و در نهایت، شرایط نامطمینی بروز می یابد که تصمیم های اقتصادی با مخاطره و هزینه بیشتری همراه خواهد بود.کلیدواژگان: ریسک سرمایه گذاری، سرعت تغییرات سود، نوسانات پرتفوی سهام
در حالی که راه های زیادی برای دستیابی به رشد و افزایش بهره وری وجود دارد؛ اما استفاده از فرصت های کارآفرینی با بهره گیری از فناوری های جدید و ایجاد بازارهای جدید به شکل قابل توجهی منجر به افزایش ثروت و بهبود اقتصاد ملی کشورها می گردد.
این پژوهش با هدف طراحی الگوی بهره برداری از فرصت های کارآفرینانه درصنعت پسماند ایران بر آن است تا بینشی جهت دستیابی به بهره وری بواسطه شناسایی فرصت های کارآفرینانه ایجاد نماید. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از منظر گردآوری اطلاعات، کیفی از نوع «تحلیل محتوا» است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات در بخش کیفی مصاحبه نیمه ساختار یافته است.یافته ها
مصاحبه با مشارکت کنندگان تا رسیدن به نقطه اشباع نظری ادامه یافته است که این مهم با انجام 12 مصاحبه حاصل گردید. مشارکت کنندگان با روش گلوله برفی و هدفمند انتخاب شده اند. تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها به واسطه سه مرحله کد گذاری با نرم افزار MAXQDA2020 بوده است. بر اساس نتایج تحقیق «قوانین و اسناد بالادستی،فرهنگ سازی و آموزش، فناوری، نهادها» در بهره برداری از فرصت های کارآفرینانه در صنعت پسماند موثرند.نتیجه گیری
در این الگو قوانین و اسناد بالادستی مشتمل بر «اصلاح و بهبود قوانین و قوانین حمایتی»؛فرهنگ سازی و آموزش مشتمل بر «فرهنگ کارآفرینانه در حوزه پسماند،آموزش کارآفرینانه» نهادها مشتمل بر «نهادهای رسمی و نهادهای غیر رسمی»؛ فناوری مشتمل بر «جذب و کاربرد» مشخص گردید بر اساس نتایج تحقیق؛ پیشنهادات کاربردی ارایه گردید بر این اساس ترسیم چشم انداز، نهادسازی، فرهنگ سازی و استفاده از فناوری نوین پیشنهادگردید.کلیدواژگان: فرصت کارآفرینانه، صنعت پسماند، فرهنگ سازی، فناوری، قوانین و اسناد بالادستی
In recent decades, rapid economic growth and increasing inequality have become two of the most pioneer phenomena in the world. Although better economic conditions lead to a significant reduction in poverty and a significant increase in social welfare, increasing income disparity has been raised as a concern. The evidences suggests that rising inequality can reduce investment, consumption, and growth by fueling economic, financial, and political instability. One of the concepts that has received much attention in recent years and justifies the difference between rich and poor countries is the issue of economic complexity. Economic complexity reflects the knowledge and skills of a country's manpower in the production process, in order to produce more advanced and complex products in the international competition, the need to achieve higher economic growth and consequently to be on the path of progress and development; Economic growth that, by employing skilled and knowledgeable people, can increase their level of well-being and reduce income inequality.Method
the present study investigates the effect of economic complexity on income inequality in Iran during 1995- 2020 period by using ARDL model. So dependent variable is income inequality and we use gini coefficient for it and independent variables are economic complexity, government expenditure growth, real income per capita growth, inflation and poverty rate. Therefore, the main hypothesis of this study is that: economic complexity has a positive effect on income inequality. Government expenditure, per capita income, inflation and poverty are other variables used in this research. According to the dependent variable, the Gini coefficient data from Central Bank of Iran website has been used to measure income inequality. Economic complexity data are collected from the MIT Media Lab's Observatory of Economic Complexity and are based on international trade data linking countries to exported products. The variable data of government expenditures, including the aggregation of construction and current government expenditures, were collected from the website of the Central Bank of Iran. The variable data of per capita income was also extracted from the World Bank, in order not to have problems with the variable of inflation, these data were collected in real terms. Inflation variable data, including Iran's inflation rate, was collected from Staticta website. The variable poverty data also includes the poverty rate of Iran for the years 1995 to 2020, which was collected from the study of Salehi Esfahani (2020) who worked on this field. Based on this study, poverty rate reports in developed countries indicate that the poverty rate is determined based on the income threshold of households in rural and urban areas; The World Bank suggests $5.50 as the poverty line (income threshold) for middle-income countries. Based on this, if the average household income for a country is higher than the specified income threshold, the said country is considered rich, and if the average household income is lower than the specified income threshold, the country in question is considered poor.The poverty rate is usually reported annually. But in Iran, this statistic is not officially published, because Iran's social protection system is not based on income data, therefore, in this article, similar to the study of Salehi Esfahani (2017), a set of lines based on the proposed method and implementation It is used for rural and urban areas in the province and then the entire country to estimate the poverty rate.Results
Theoretical results indicate that as Iran improves in terms of economic complexity index, it can achieve a higher level of expertise by using diverse and unique production knowledge and produce more advanced and sophisticated products. This higher specialization, which is achieved by economic complexity, will increase the income of the poor in society and thus reduce income inequality by increasing productivity. The results of the estimates also indicate that the index of economic complexity in Iran has had a negative and significant effect on income inequality.Conclusion
Corruption and poverty can be curbed by diversifying exports and improving quality and ensuring the competitiveness of domestic goods and creating a competitive foreign exchange market in the economy. And also, by improving and diversifying exports, the instability and fluctuation of key prices and inflationary expectations can be curbed and stabilized so that peace and trust reign in the economy and make the prospect of high-quality productive activities.Finally, the results of this study do not imply that economic complexity as an independent and unique indicator affects income distribution; rather, economic complexity should be seen as a reflection of the productive, institutional, educational and capital capabilities of an economy.Economic complexity reflects the platforms of cooperation, distribution of knowledge, the ability to create a network of productive skills and knowledge, and as a result, the expansion of investments and acceptance of new technologies and new job opportunities, which increases the country's ability to it promotes production and reduction of inequality.Keywords: income inequality, economic complexity, Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Iran
Impact Analysis of Macroeconomic Shocks on Monetary and Fiscal Policy Variables in Iran with Taylor Rule Approach: BVAR MethodPages 21-48Objective
The economies of countries have always been affected by various shocks from the supply and demand side during different periods, and this phenomenon causes deviations in macroeconomic variables. Examining the effect of key macroeconomic variables on these shocks is of special importance, especially in developing countries. The purpose of this study is to impact analysis macroeconomic shocks on monetary and fiscal policy variables in Iran with the Taylor rule approach in the period 1967-2020.Method
In this study, the impact of macroeconomic shocks on monetary and financial policy variables in Iran has been analyzed with the approach of Taylor's rule: BVAR method.The Bayesian vector auto regressive (BVAR)has been used. In this regard, the regularity or discretion of the central bank's monetary policies and the government's financial policies in Iran have been studied based on Taylor's rule, and the Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model has been used to investigate the instantaneous response and variance analysis. Due to avoiding the use of restrictive dependent forms, vector autoregression approach has been used in this research. One of the expanding and new methods in this field is the use of the Bayesian approach. By combining the initial beliefs of the researcher and the information in the data, the Bayesian method automatically shrinks different models, including vector autoregression models, and as a method to overcome this problem, it has been increasingly popular among researchers. Also, one of the advantages of Bayesian methods is that you can increase the variables of the model without worrying about reducing the degree of freedom. In the form of Bayesian vector autoregression model, this study has investigated Taylor's rule in two models. In the first model, the reaction of monetary policy to macroeconomic shocks and the second model to the reaction of financial policy to macroeconomic shocks in Iran have been analyzed based on Taylor rule. Whit using Theil and RMSE index,it was determined that the determined former Literman-Minnesota function provides the most accurate prediction and The growth rate of the monetary base and government spending have been used as monetary and financial policy tools.The desired model is estimated using Eviews 9.0 software.Results
The findings of the research based on the instantaneous reaction functions in the first model show that monetary policy makers have implemented an expansionary policy in relation to the impulse of the production gap in the short term, and the effect of this impulse will disappear in the long term. Also, the results of the second model show that financial policy makers have implemented an expansionary policy in relation to the impulse of the production gap in the short and long term. In the following, the central bank has shown a contractionary behavior in relation to the impulses of inflation in the short term, and the effect of the impulse will be lost in the long term, and the government has shown a contractionary behavior in relation to the impulse of the consumer price index in the short term and has implemented an expansionary policy in the long term.Also, relative to one unit standard deviation of the real exchange rate, the monetary and fiscal policies showed expansionary and contractionary behavior in the short term, and the impact of the impulses disappeared in the long term. Further, the results of variance analysis show that in the short and long term, the production gap explains the most changes in the growth rate of the monetary base and government spending.Conclusion
The results showed that the central bank in the short run has that the discretionary behavior towards the impulse caused by the output gap is against the Taylor rule and does not react in the long run. The reaction of monetary policymakers to the shock of inflation in the short run is according to the Taylor rule and in the long run inflation shocks will disappear and financial policymakers to the shock of the consumer price index in the short run according to the Taylor rule and in the long run is against the Taylor rule.Also, by creating a momentum in the real exchange rate, the effect of the momentum on the growth rate of the monetary base and government expenditures, negative and positive in the short run and in the long run, respectively, will not be permanent and will disappear.The results of analysis of variance show that in the short and long run the output gap explains the largest changes in the growth rate of the monetary base and government expenditures. The results show that monetary policies in Iran follow financial policies, and this way of financial communication between the government and the central bank is one of the important factors of the ineffectiveness of monetary policies. To evaluate the effect of monetary policy on the goals of controlling inflation and establishing production stability in the economy, the design of the rule Optimal monetary policy is very important and recommended. Especially since Iran's economy, due to various reasons, has conditions where fluctuations and unexpected shocks are not rare on the economy.In this way, it is possible to propose the rule strategy with discretion as a suitable strategy for guiding the monetary and financial policy in Iran.Keywords: monetary policy, Fiscal Policy, Beysian Vector Auto Regression Analysis, Taylor Rule
Modelling of the Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncertainty Impacts on Agriculture Import: Evidence from IranPages 49-72Objective
Although most business models argue that exchange rate volatility increase uncertainty and risk, thereby reducing trade flows and imports; however, some other studies show the opposite results. Although many studies have been conducted on the exchange rate on trade and specifically on imports in the world, but the non-linear and asymmetric effect of exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainty on agricultural imports in Iran remains unknown. Therefore, this article tries to test the absence or asymmetry in possible photos of agricultural imports due to exchange rate changes in the Iranian economy. In addition, this study provides empirical evidence to advance policy-making in exchange rate management, as exchange rate uncertainties affect trade, and the results of this study provide information that can guide and develop the literature on the subject. The present study has examined the effect of market exchange rate uncertainty (unofficial) on the import of Iran's agricultural sector in the period 2001-2016.Method
Exponential generalized conditional heterogeneity variance (EGARCH) model for deriving exchange rate volatility and conditional variance for estimating exchange rate uncertainty and two methods of Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) to estimate the effect of volatility and uncertainty agricultural imports.Findings
The results indicate that the market exchange rate always has a positive and increasing effect on the value of imports in the agricultural sector (which is mainly input of agriculture production). In addition, examining the nonlinear relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural imports shows that positive shocks (increasing) of uncertainty has a decreasing effect on agricultural imports and negative shocks (decreasing) of uncertainty has an increasing effect on agricultural imports. Examining the linear relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and agricultural sector imports shows that current level of fluctuations do not have a significant effect on agricultural sector imports, but after a lag level (past period), it has a significant but positive weak effect on agricultural sector imports. Finally, by examining the long-term and short-term model between these two variables, no significant relationship was observed.Examination of the linear relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and agricultural sector imports shows that current exchange rate fluctuations do not have a significant effect on agricultural sector imports, but the previous period has a positive, significant and weak effect on agricultural sector imports. Examining the long-term and short-term relationships of these two variables, no significant relationship was observed. This is while the real free market exchange rate still has a positive effect on imports. However, this study on the effect of exchange rates is in line with most domestic and foreign studies and confirms their results.The results of research in modeling of effect of currency fluctuations on agricultural imports show that the effect of currency fluctuations on imports is symmetrical and currency fluctuations with a lag period have a positive and weak effect on imports. In the long run, the positive shock of currency fluctuations has not had a significant effect on agricultural imports. Also, 96% of short-term and long-term imbalances are adjusted in the pattern of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on agricultural imports. Due to the high speed of adjustment, if positive currency shocks are managed, its negative effects will be adjusted after a period. Free market exchange rate has a significant and positive effect on the value of agricultural imports. GDP and prices and trade liberalization have a significant and positive effect on agricultural imports.Conclusion
Exchange rate uncertainty should be considered as an important issue by economic policy makers to reduce risk of trade flows. It is recommended to use exchange rate risk coverage tools, clarify government foreign exchange policies to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainty to ensure a continuous flow of agricultural import inputs. Exchange rate has always been considered as a key and important economic variable in policy making. It is recommended to use exchange rate risk hedging tools, clarify government foreign exchange policies to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainty to ensure a continuous flow of agricultural import inputs.In conditions of volatile and risky currency, the devaluation of the national currency (exchange rate increase) causes an increase in the value of imports in the agricultural sector, which indicates the management of foreign exchange expenditures on agricultural imports in line with government sovereign duties.The import of the agricultural sector reacts to the illegal market exchange rate rather than reacting to the uncertainty and riskiness of the exchange rate, and this high rate of adjustment, if positive exchange rate shocks are managed, its negative effects are adjusted after a period. In addition, high-risk currency conditions increase incentives and competition in the import of the agricultural sector, and the high sensitivity of agricultural imports to the illegal market exchange rate confirms this result. The behavior pattern of exchange rate (linear and nonlinear/ symmetric or asymmetric) and choosing a illegal market exchange rate instead of government and official exchange rates is effective in analyzing the impact of exchange rates on imports.Finally, there are many changes and fluctuations in the Iranian economy, it is suggested that, firstly, by formulating appropriate policies and strategies to stabilize the exchange rate and increase trade, the field of controlling and adjusting currency uncertainties be provided to witness this. Increase production, exports and improve the trade balance.Keywords: Exchange Rate Uncertainty, NARDL, Volatility, Agricultural Import, Heteroskedasticity
The Impact of Institutional and Cultural Variables on Attracting Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Development (A Selection of Developing Countries)Pages 73-90Objective
Attention to cultural and institutional foundations is one of the processes influencing economic growth and development. In many studies, the role of institutional and cultural factors in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth has been done separately. But, the present study is important because of the role of interaction between institutional and cultural factors in attracting foreign direct investment. So, the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment by considering the role of institutional and cultural variables in the group of developing countries.Methods
This study is an applied research according to the type and purpose of the research. The statistical sample includes 16 developing countries during the 1991-2020. Criteria for selecting countries is Homogeneity of some indicators, including; Economic growth, governing indicator, the level of democracy and freedom of trade, the level of development, as well as the availability of the information. Therefore, developing countries including Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, UAE and Venezuela were selected. In this study, while the effect of variables such as political and economic stability, rule of law and control of corruption and institutional, cultural and variables that can be individually effective in attracting foreign investment are examined also the interaction effects of foreign direct investment and institutional factors have been investigated. The generalized Method of Moment (GMM) approach has been used to investigate the model. This method is one of the appropriate econometric methods to solve or reduce the problem of endogenous variables and correlations between explanatory variables. In this study, two models of economic growth and foreign direct investment were analyzed. Factors affecting economic growth include capital, labor, foreign direct investment, energy consumption, exchange rate, human capital, governance index, degree of openness of the economy, cultural index, the interaction of cultural index and foreign direct investment as well as governance index And foreign direct investment. Factors affecting foreign direct investment also include human capital index, degree of economic openness, economic growth, exchange rate, governance index, cultural index, population, inflation rate and the interaction of cultural index and governance index.Results
According to the results, white test was used to investigate the heterogeneity of the coefficients. Based on the results of this test, the statistic F is equal to 1.69 with a probability level of 0.1452, which indicates the acceptance of the null hypothesis that there is no heterogeneity of variance. Also, based on the research results, cross-sectional independence of the data is accepted and Levin, Lin and Chou tests are used to examine the stationary of the variables. Based on the results of this test, all variables except the capital variable are stationary. The other variables remain stationary after one-time differentiation. In other words, the degree of accumulation is one and other variables are zero. According to the results of unit root test, in order to prevent false regression, Kao co-integration test has been performed in order to investigate the existence of long-term relationship between variables. Based on the results of which the existence of co-integration between variables is confirmed; therefore, it can be said that there is a long-run relationship between the dependent variable of each model and the independent variables. Finally, the results of estimation of the first model show that all research variables affect the economic growth at a significant level of 95%. Estimated coefficient for economic growth equal to 0.118, labor variable equal to 0.065, energy consumption equal to 0.030, human capital equal to 0.153, degree of economy openness equal to 0.084 and the cultural index equal to 0.147. The interaction of cultural index and FDI on economic growth is also positive and significant. The interaction between the governance index and FDI is 0.143. Based on the results, the Sargan test statistic indicates that the null hypothesis is not rejected and the defined instrumental variables are valid, therefore, the model does not need another instrumental variable. Also, the results of Arlano and Bond test to determine the order of autocorrelation show that the null hypothesis that there is no autocorrelation in the differentiated sentences in the second order of M2 has not been rejected. This finding is in line with Arlano and Bond(1991). They believe that in the GMM estimation, the perturbation sentences should have a first-order serial correlation of AR (1) and a second-order serial correlation of AR (2). In the second model, all research variables affect the rate of foreign direct investment attraction in developing countries. The estimated coefficient for all variables is positive and statistically significant. At the same time, the coefficient related to the exchange rate variable is equal to -0.065. Also, the estimated coefficient for the interaction variable of the index of institutional and cultural factors is equal to 0.238.Conclusion
In developing countries, investors seem to be attracted to countries that are less linguistically and religiously diverse than in other countries, in other words, foreign direct investment is mainly regional, because the common religion and language and borders are important to foreign investors. On the other hand, foreign investors seem to be investing in countries with similar or better regulatory environments than their own, and preferring to invest in countries with less diverse communities than their own. Also, in justifying the obtained coefficient for the interaction of the index of institutional factors and foreign direct investment, it can be said that appropriate institutional factors attract more foreign direct investment and ultimately increase the economic growth of the studied countries. Also, the interaction coefficient of cultural index and foreign direct investment is equal to 0.013 at the level of 99%, i.e. the existence of countries with less cultural diversity and culture similar to their own country has attracted more foreign direct investment and are closely related to each other. The effect of these two causes the economic growth of the countries studied in this study.Keywords: Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, institutional factors, Cultural factors
Investigating the Dynamic Relationship between Bit coin and Stock Index, Gold and Dollar in Iran: An Application of the Wavelet Coherency ApproachPages 91-109
Objective The main purpose :
of this study is to investigate the co-movement analysis of bitcoin, gold, stocks and dollars markets in the Iranian economy. The reason for focusing on this goal is high inflation in the country and the influx of investors into the financial markets. In addition, given the current state of the global economy and all the economic crises caused by Covid-19, these markets are affected. The results of this study provide new interpretations of the return of financial markets for investment in the society.Method
To achieve this goal, the analysis of the wavelet coherence analysis and perspectives in wavelet, mobility and two-way relationship of these markets in the Iranian economy in the period September 2011 to January 2022 was studied. Wavelet coherence, wavelet energy spectrum and opposite phase are some of the techniques that have been used to interpret the relationship mutually between different markets. The methodology of wavelet coherence has gained immense popularity over the last few years in the domain of finance and economics. Wavelet Coherence a bi-variate framework used to study the interaction between different time series and their evolution over a continuous time and frequency space. Some of useful wavelet coherence technical interpretations are: it indicates the direction of co-movement between variables and the right indicate perfectly phased variables.Results
The results show that the co-movement between the bitcoin market and stocks in Iran in different periods have moved in different directions. This is because the bitcoin market is a global market whose changes in performance are not very affected by changes in domestic demand, and in addition, the demand of the Iranian society for bitcoin does not have a long history.The co-movement between the Bitcoin and exchange rate and Bitcoin and gold markets is similar specially it is more in the short and medium term than in the long term.The strongest correlation between the studied markets has been between gold and foreign exchange. In this regard, gold moves after the dollar exchange rate and their relationship are direct, that is, with the increase of the dollar exchange rate, the price of gold has also increased. After these years, during the years between 2016 to 2017, the intensity of the relationship between gold coins and the dollar exchange rate has not been high, especially in the long run, but after 2016 and with the intensification of banking sanctions and severe fluctuations in the coin and gold markets, in addition to the high intensity of the coherence of these markets at all time scales, the movement of the two variables is also in phase. In other words, in the years after the sanctions, coin prices and exchange rates have had a direct and high movement with each other, and this movement and its intensity has continued in the short run, medium run and long run horizons in 2012 and 2013, which is consistent with real evidence. Iran's economy is over the years. From 2014 to 2018, after the start of negotiations and the gradual lifting of some sanctions and then the severe application of sanctions during the BARJAM agreements (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(, stability returned to the gold and foreign exchange markets, and then again fluctuations affect the market so the dollar has depreciated significantly. The periods of coherence between the stock market and gold have been similar to the two gold and foreign exchange markets, but with less intensity.Conclusion
The results of the study offer new interpretations of the return of financial markets for investors. In their investment decisions, economic actors need to base the type and changes between markets, knowing that investing in gold, currency and stock markets in the country is largely influenced by political changes and investments. The bitcoin market is largely influenced by the rules and regulations of the central banks of the world's top economies such as the United States and China, and the world's major policies in buying this cryptocurrency and selling our own products in return. It is suggested that when investing in the cryptocurrency market, the economic policies and programs of the central banks of the world's top economies and the position of the world's largest companies (such as Tesla) against this cryptocurrency must be taken into account. Also, it seems that due to the stronger correlation between the bitcoin, gold and dollar markets and the relatively low correlation between bitcoin and stock returns, economic policymakers need to consider the impact of the bitcoin in their monetary policy. It is an externalization that can affect the monetary policy of the central bank, especially in the medium term, due to the phenomena of financial transmission.Keywords: Bitcoin, Gold Market, Wavelet Conversion, Motion
Behavioral strains of managers, including optimism, overconfidence and short-sightedness, can overshadow their behavior and type of decisions in the organization while improving the company's financial performance. The tone of financial reporting is influenced by these behavioral characteristics.An optimistic tone in reporting is born of a kind of perceptual bias and distortion of facts that will make reporting less transparent to shareholders.When agency motives are present, the tone used by managers in explanatory reports can mislead the reader and be used strategically rather than for informational purposes.The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of managers' behavioral aspects (optimism,overconfidence andshort-sightedness) on the optimistic tone of financial reporting.Methods
The present research method is applied in terms of implementation result, in terms of implementation process (or data type), in terms of quantitative content analysis. In quantitative content analysis, it is mostly limited to the appearance of the text and the counting of certain words or sentences. Content analysis is the analysis of speech, writing, speeches, interviews, films, images, the way words are pronounced, the tone used in words, speeches, political announcements, and the like.The statistical sample includes 115 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2012 to 2021. To measure the optimistic tone, the vocabulary frequency method was used. In order to test the research hypotheses, the multiple regression method with combined data was used.Results
The results showed that managers' optimism and overconfidence have a significant effect on the optimistic tone of financial reporting. But management short-sightedness has no effect on the optimistic tone.Conclusion
With the dramatic expansion of Iran's capital market in recent years, many people have been engaged in activities in this market, and many of these people are actually non-professionals, so they have less understanding about the company's explanatory reports, and on the other hand, the producers of annual reports are aware of this fact and This awareness in turn creates an incentive for producers to change their tone in order to impress them. Companies use more positive words in written messages to express a favorable image of their performance.Emerging foundations in financial economics focus on the personality traits of managers. Therefore, it is very important to know the behavioral patterns of managers. Overconfidence, optimism, and short-sightedness can be mentioned among the most important behavioral traits of managers that affect management performance and decisions, such as the tone of the board's activity report. The specific characteristics of managers beyond the specific economic factors of the companies affect the choices related to the financial reports and disclosures of the companies. Considering the existing limitations related to the choice of language and the difficulty of verifying the legitimacy of the language based on the existing facts, it seems that the tone is affected in a special way by the behavioral patterns of managers.As managers become more optimistic and confident, the optimistic tone of financial reporting increases. In other words, optimistic and confident managers use an optimistic tone in financial reporting because of their beliefs and opinions about future issues. The manager's specific optimism refers to his specific tendency to optimistically describe the company's performance in the form of an optimistic tone. Optimistic managers pay less information transparency due to their beliefs and opinions about the company's future issues. Optimistic people emphasize the use of positive words in the form of optimistic tone of financial reporting to focus on positive factors in the face of negative events.When the company has overconfident managers, the strategy of using a positive tone is more often used to mislead investors or hide bad news. Therefore, in order to realize his managerial attitude, he has an optimistic bias in providing information, which affects the quality of information and the tone of reporting.Since the behavior patterns of managers lead to their use of activities outside of accounting principles and foundations to show favorable financial performance in the short term and due to the lack of stability of this favorable financial performance in the long term, it is suggested to investors that when deciding to buy shares of the company in question, Pay special attention to its long-term financial performance.Legislators and accounting standard setters are suggested to design a specific framework for developing explanatory reports with specific words in developing new standards and laws. So that the freedom of action and authority of the management in the use of positive words in the form of unusual optimistic tone is prohibited so that the managers cannot deceive the users by using the optimistic tone opportunistically in the form of perception management.Keywords: Optimism, Overconfidence, Short-Sightedness, optimistic tone
In recent years, the effect of financial markets and especially the stock market as one of the factors of financing investment plans and projects are important.The effects of prosperity and recession of these markets on the country's economy are also considered. In the implementation of monetary policy, in fact, the existence of asymmetric effects doubles the need to pay attention to the performance of monetary shocks and accuracy in formulating and implementing policies in any economy. And policymakers in their medium- and long-term planning not only pay attention to macroeconomic goals, including the level of real output and inflation, Asymmetry considers the effects of monetary shocks on real and nominal variables in the economy as endogenous. In other words, it is considered to be influenced by factors such as the size of positive and negative monetary shocks, various inflationary conditions, and the prevalence of recession or boom in the economy.Methods
Interest rates in the Iranian economy are constant over the years, we can not use the Taylor rule to estimate the effects of monetary policy. Therefore, we modeled the monetary policy process by using the McCallum rule of the monetary base as a representative of monetary policy. Then, by extracting monetary shocks, we interpret its effects on the economy. Finally, we used the Markov Dynamic Switching Regression (MSDR) model to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on stock prices. The MSDR model enables the rapid evolution of heterogeneous time series in different states. In addition, to determine the dynamic relationship between monetary policy shocks and stock prices, special attention is paid to time-varying parameters in the MSDR model.The application of monetary policy with the instrument of monetary base growth on the variables of output gap, inflation gap, exchange rate changes with quarterly data from 2005 to 2019 and using the Maccallum Rule is investigated.Then the effect of monetary shocks on the stock price index is analyzed based on the Markov Switching Model.Results
By using monetary policy with monetary base tools, in the first period, the shock to the monetary base has a positive effect on the monetary base, from the second period to several periods, it has negative effects, and finally, over time, the effects of monetary shock on the positive monetary base and it is very minor.The output gap versus the monetary shock in the first period has a positive effect and the second and third periods have a reverse effect, then a positive and increasing effect, and over time the degree of impact of the output gap becomes little with the application of monetary policy. Inflation has negative and decreasing effects against changes in the monetary base in all periods, which will reach zero over time, and the effects of the monetary base on inflation over time will be very small. By implementing monetary policy with the basic monetary instrument, the exchange rate in the first periods has negative effects. Then it will have a small decreasing trend over time.Therefore, there are effects of monetary policy implementation in the early periods on the variables, and over time, the effects of floating the monetary base on other variables become minor and insignificant.Markov's test of the rotational model confirms that the Iranian stock market has followed a passive stock market relative to changes in the monetary base over the period under study. In the first and second regimes, changes in the output gap increase the stock price index. In both regimes, the output gap coefficients are significant and smaller than one.In regime one, increasing the inflation gap increases the stock price index and is statistically significant. In this regime, the reaction of the Iranian stock market to inflation is high compared to other variables, which indicates that in the recession period, the index against inflation, the index The stock price will also have a positive and increasing response, and shareholders will benefit from this price growth due to the recessionary conditions of the economy, and finally the growth of the stock price index. In regime two, the stock price index decreases as inflation increases. It can be said that if inflation expectations are combined with rumors of prosperity in a certain sector of the economy, shareholders may withdraw their capital from the stock market and invest in another field. Increasing the supply of the total stock price index decreases.The results explain that the dealing of monetary policy and monetary shocks in each time period does not have a consistent behavior and the same effect on the stock price index.The application of monetary policy in a powerful way does not affect the stock price index. The findings also indicate that after one or at most three seasons, a turnaround occurs in the state of Iran's economy. And the period between prosperity and recession and politics is constantly rotating between active and passive. Therefore, according to the results obtained in the Iranian economy, we do not see the stability and long-term sustainability of a prosperity or recession regime.Conclusion
According to the results obtained in the Iranian economy in the period under review, we do not see the stability and long-term durability of a prosperity or recession regime.Keywords: monetary policy, Stock Price Index, MaccallumRule, Markov Switching Model
Currently, knowledge is the key factor in development in its various dimensions. Organizations in different societies (with different intensity) by understanding the importance of knowledge, have moved in the direction of using it more. Intellectual capital plays an important role in organizational innovation and knowledge accumulation in the organization and and has a vital impact to enhance business financial performance. The importance of intellectual capital is much greater in knowledge-based companies. The pharmaceutical industry is one of the knowledge-based industries and intellectual capital in these companies has been in the center of researchers' attention. Therefore, it is very important to examine the position of intellectual capital in this industry and its effect on financial performance. The purpose of this research is to calculate the intellectual capital for pharmaceutical companies listed to the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for the years 2011 to 2020 and to investigate the impact of intellectual capital on financial performance.Method
According to the access to the required data, 26 pharmaceutical companies were selected. Relying on the theoretical foundations and previous studies, the present research has selected the most widely used intellectual capital calculation method which was first presented and used by Pulic (1998 and 2004). Based on the data of 26 pharmaceutical companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2011 to 2020, the intellectual capital of pharmaceutical company has been measured by the Value added intellectual coefficient method (VAIC). Panel regression analysis has been used to analyze the impact of intellectual capital on the financial performance (return on assets as an indicator of financial performance) of selected pharmaceutical companies. In this regard, after the panel stationary test to avoid spurious regression and checking the establishment of classical hypotheses, panel regression equations were estimated by FGLS (Feasible generalized least squares) method due to the variance heterogeneity of errors and serial autocorrelation of errors. For data analysis, Eviews and Stata software were used.Results
Based on the results of calculations, the average Value added intellectual coefficient for Darou Pakhsh Pharmaceutical Company, Daru Pakhsh Raw Materials and Alborz Daru Company are in the first ranks, and Industrial & Chemical Sina Company has the lowest value. The intellectual capital performance of the selected Iranian pharmaceutical companies is generally affected by human capital efficiency. Between 2011 and 2020, Value added intellectual coefficient has been up for most of selected companies. To check the validity of the hypothesis of convergence between selected pharmaceutical companies, the convergence regression (Growth rate of intellectual capital as a function of the amount of intellectual capital in year 2011) has been estimated. The sign of the convergence regression coefficient is negative but not significant. As a result, it does not confirm the existence of convergence of intellectual capital between these companies. The results of the Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) panel unit root test for all variables indicate that all variables used in panel regressions are stationary at level. The results of Chow test and Hausman test for each of the panel regression confirmed the fixed effects method. The results of the serial autocorrelation test of panel regression errors shows the existence of serial autocorrelation between regression errors, and also the variance heterogeneity test of panel regression errors shows the non- heterogeneity of variance of regression errors. According to the results of panel regression estimation, the efficiency of capital employed, the efficiency of human capital and the efficiency of structural capital have a positive and significant effect on the financial performance of selected pharmaceutical companies. The efficiency of capital employed has a greater impact on the financial performance of selected pharmaceutical companies. Company size and financial leverage have a negative and significant effect on the profitability of selected pharmaceutical companies.Conclusion
Based on the results of panel regression analysis, it can be concluded that pharmaceutical companies should use their financial and physical capital if they wish to reach a higher profitability level. Although the most important assets of companies are their employees, the low human capital ratio of Iranian pharmaceutical companies does not confirm this. In addition to paying attention to the proper use of physical and financial assets, it is necessary for pharmaceutical companies to include issues such as employee training, increasing employee skills, and creating various incentives to motivate employees to improve efficiency and create creativity in performance. Considering the nature of pharmaceutical companies, which are among knowledge-based companies, to improve the level of human capital efficiency and increase its impact on financial performance, constructive and continuous communication with universities and scientific institutions is suggested to create dynamics in the activity.Keywords: Intellectual Capital, Financial Performance, pharmaceutical companies
Investigating the Relationship between Past Behaviors and Financial Literacy with the Intention to Invest in the Stock Market with the Mediating Role of Individual VariablesPages 173-189Objective
The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between past behaviors and financial literacy with the intention to invest in the stock market with the mediating role of individual variables. The main question in this research is: What is the relationship between past behaviors and financial literacy with the intention to invest in the stock market with the mediating role of individual variables of stock exchange investors in Isfahan?Methods
The present study is an applied research. This research is descriptive-causal and because the data is done through sampling of the population to investigate the distribution of characteristics of the statistical population, this research is from the field of survey (field finding). The statistical population in this study included investors of the stock exchange in the city of Isfahan. The statistical sample obtained by Cochran's formula is equal to 384 people. To ensure 450 randomly available questionnaires, 392 questionnaires were completed and analyzes were performed based on the same number of samples. In this study, data were collected by field method using a questionnaire. Also, to ensure the validity, the questionnaire was provided to experts such as professors and academic researchers, as well as managers and senior experts, whose opinions also confirmed the validity of the questionnaire. With the initial distribution of 30 questionnaires, the reliability coefficient for the questionnaire, which contains 26 questions.Results
According to the data analysis, the results showed that attitudes, mental norms, perceived behavioral control and past behavior have a positive and significant effect on the intention to invest in the stock market. Also, past behavior, financial literacy has a positive and significant effect on attitude and also financial literacy has a positive and significant effect on perceived behavioral control. Past behavior and financial literacy have a positive and significant effect on the intention to invest in the stock market through attitude and also financial literacy has a positive and significant effect on the intention to invest in the stock market through perceived behavioral control.Conclusion
The research results confirm all hypotheses except the fourth hypothesis. Suggestions based on the results of the research are presented as follows: Regarding the first hypothesis, it is suggested to change the attitude of investors to a positive attitude by holding workshops on stock exchange, because it is necessary to have a positive attitude and sufficient motivation to work in the stock market. To welcome stock market investment ideas; Regarding the second hypothesis, it is suggested that if customers have sufficient knowledge about the stock market, my colleagues and friends should inform and train them to invest in the stock market, because those who are successful in the stock market have an incentive to Who are important in their lives to advise to invest in the stock market and to engage in activities and investments; Regarding the third hypothesis, it is suggested that we provide sufficient training to investors to be able to operate in the market in a timely manner to buy any stock at the appropriate time; And easily recognize profitable stocks and buy good stocks; Regarding the fourth and fifth hypotheses, it is suggested that brokers hold financial literacy classes during times of market downturn during times of market downturn so that investors do not make an emotional and hasty decision to sell their shares. On the other hand, investors gain experience from market performance, and this experience can influence their future investment decisions. Also, stocks whose past performance has always been extraordinary are considered important in the investor's investment decision; Regarding the sixth and seventh hypotheses, it is suggested that investors do not invest and make decisions with predictions, speculations and sometimes past market behavior, because the right decision in the market requires the analysis of the stock market and the correct forecast of prices and dividends. Is. And if they invest in stocks, they should invest in the long run because it will grow naturally. And stocks fluctuate over time; In the case of the eighth hypothesis, it is recommended that investors do not use past information to make investment decisions; Because the market is constantly moving according to the political and economic conditions of society and it cannot be correctly predicted that it will act as in the past and the market that lost in the past may be profitable in the current market; Regarding the ninth and tenth hypotheses, it is suggested that with the financial literacy that brokers create for investors, they should encourage investors to invest in the stock market; Because if the investment has a positive performance in the stock market; It will encourage your friends and relatives to invest.Keywords: financial literacy, past behavior, behavioral control
This study aimed to analyze and rank factors of investor inclinations towards the capital market through structural-interpretive modeling and recursive analysis.Method
The exploratory factor analysis was used with the grounded theory to extract indicators. Structural-interpretive modeling was then adopted to rank the factors and the recursive model was extracted through path analysis. Finally, the model fitness was evaluated in AMOS.Results
The exploratory factor analysis identified 46 categories in six dimensions, namely casual factors, contextual factors, axial factors, intervening factors, strategies, and outcomes. The structural-interpretive modeling results classified the factors in 5 levels from bottom-top, where the first and last levels were respectively causal factors and outcomes. The path analysis results mainly emphasized the indirect effects of contextual and intervening variables, and the findings suggested that the model had adequate fitness.Conclusion
The results were analyzed for structural-interpretive modeling and recursive analysis of investor inclinations towards the capital market. According to the factor analysis results, the indices had high factor loads with six major components (factors). The discovered indicators shown in Table 1 suggest that the structural model of investor inclinations towards the stock market can be described with six components and 46 subcomponents. The causal factors, contextual factors, intervening factors, axial factors, strategic factors, and outcomes respectively had 10, 14, 8, 2, 5, and 7 subcomponents.The results of analyzing the factor loads of indices toward the main research objective found high factor loads in an investor’s personality and attitude, emotional intelligence, preferences and interests, mental security, loss avoidance, experience, and business intelligence, and governmental macro planning and Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. These indicators were highly important.People are inclined toward different activities for various reasons, and the same goes for investments and trades in financial markets. For instance, an investor’s personality and attitude from the causal indices is among the most important factors in the psychology of capital markets. In other words, various mental processes and situations lead to different feelings and motivations, which can greatly affect the investor decisions. Another important indicator is an investor’s experience that can be analyzed in two aspects, the first being their experience with the profit or loss from previous trades that will become a positive or negative mental background for investors during trades, and the second aspect is gaining experience in making buy or sell calls over time. An investor’s mental security also has a high factor load in causal factors. Investors are constantly concerned about capital security in the stock market since it is perceived as a country’s economic thermometer. It is affected by domestic and foreign sociopolitical problems that are major sources of share price fluctuations. Hence, investors can somehow moderate the fear of share price fluctuations by improving their investment knowledge and becoming aware of increases and decreases in share prices. However, an investor’s loss avoidance is also effective. According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, investors should use their additional savings to invest in the stock market for higher levels of mental security.An investor’s emotional and business intelligence are the next indicators with high factor loads in contextual factors. These are considered moderating factors in the mass behavior of investors.An investor’s preferences and interests were identified as the axial category. With high factor loads, these indicators suggest that investors have different preferences. For instance, some prefer very low-risk investments resulting in conservative profits, whereas others are willing to take substantial risks for more profit. All of the aforementioned indicators affect this category. Moreover, governmental macro planning is an important indicator with a high factor load in strategic factors. In this regard, it is important to accurately analyze the macro environment and formulate appropriate scenarios to adopt the correct rather than cumbersome regulations in the strategic planning foundation for the capital market. The authorities and legislators active in capital markets should always take this into consideration.The results of the conceptual structural-interpretive model for the effectiveness of factors suggested that the causal factors had the greatest effects on other dimensions. Furthermore, among the six major research dimensions, outcomes were the most dependent on other dimensions. The path analysis and model fitness analysis were conducted in AMOS. Analysis of the recursive model indicates a variable’s effect on itself and that the contextual and intervening dimensions affected themselves directly. Analyzing the final model fitness indicators and all parsimonious indices, namely PRATIO, PCFIC, and PNFI, showed that the final model had adequate fitness.The stock market is a segment of a country’s economy whose growth will also boost the economy. Hence, it is necessary to better recognize the factors affecting investor behaviors in a bid to understand their mentality and external behaviors within a scientific framework. This will facilitate better identification of views, states, and behaviors of investors and help the stock market grow, hence the following recommendations:According to the results, the investable companies in the capital market are advised to always improve the quality of accounting information in reports.The investors in the capital market are advised to set their financial goals first. Realistic goals are the road map helping investors identify what to invest in, set their investment horizon, and what markets to operate in. Therefore, investors can have different goals based on the three risk factors, namely income, expectation of growth rate, and dividend payout. Investors are advised to strike a balance between security, income, and investment growth to make successful investments. Given the effects of their feelings on the share price, investors should be more careful about buying or selling shares during transient emotional news cycles.Capital market authorities and legislators are advised to support the market during political turmoil to reduce emotional market actions. Therefore, they should consider the importance of regulations on economic growth.Keywords: investor inclinations, financial-behavioral, recursive model
This study aims to investigate the behavior of inflation in relation to money in developed and developing countries, and then by comparing the differences between these two categories, the reasons and documentation necessary for the effect of money on inflation in two groups of developed countries and provide non-developed.Methods
Based on the model presented in this research, the dependent variable interval is present as an explanatory variable in the model, which causes endogeneity in the model. In order to solve the endogeneity problem, the method of estimating generalized moments is used to estimate model parameters. The econometric estimation method that is used in most economic studies to solve the endogeneity problem is to use the two-stage least squares method 2SLS. The necessary condition for using this method is to find a suitable instrumental variable to solve the endogeneity problem; But using this method faces difficulties. The first problem in using this method is the difficulty of finding a suitable instrumental variable and even the limited nature of this type of variable. Also, using this method cannot solve the problem of correlation between explanatory variables and reduce or completely eliminate co-linearity in the model. To solve the problems mentioned in the economic literature, the method of generalized moments of GMM is used. The necessary condition for using the dynamic panel data approach should be the number of sections or cross-sectional units of the research period or time (N>T). Considering the point that in the current research, the time period studied is small compared to the number of countries, so it is appropriate to use the dynamic panel data approach.In the estimation process with the method of generalized moments, after the estimation stage, the validity of the instrumental variables and the over-specificity of the equation should be checked. In this regard, the Sargan test is used. In addition, the self-regression order of the disturbance sentences should be tested. In this regard, first-order differentiation to eliminate fixed effects will be a suitable method if the order of autocorrelation of disturbance sentences is not of the second order. In order to check the order of autocorrelation of disturbance sentences, Arland and Band have proposed the following statistic which has a normal distribution for free. In order to avoid false regression, first the unit root test of function variables is calculated. Before estimating the model, it is necessary to determine the type of data (composite or cross-sectional). In this regard, Limer's F test has been used in economic literature.Results
The estimation results for the two groups of countries under investigation show that the type of inflation in the two groups is different from the others, so that in oil-developing countries, the most important variable affecting inflation is inflation expectations, so that for each unit of increase in Inflation expectations in oil developing countries, the rate of inflation increases by 0.55 units, while in developed countries, this rate is 0.13 and does not have a statistically significant effect on the rate of inflation. The analysis of inflation in developed countries indicates that the most important variable affecting it is the interest rate, so that for each unit increase in the interest rate, the inflation rate increases by 1.22 units, while the effect of this variable on the inflation of oil developing countries It is equal to 0.31 units. Investigating the behavior of liquidity in relation to inflation of both investigated groups indicates a significant positive effect on inflation, and the only thing worth mentioning about the effects of liquidity is that the amount of this variable on inflation is greater in oil developing countries than in developed countries, so that For each unit of liquidity growth in oil countries, the rate of inflation increases by 0.10, while for developed countries this rate is 0.04.Conclusion
Economic growth is a very important factor in reducing inflation in oil-developing countries and developed countries, and since developed countries pay a lot of attention to economic growth, it is necessary for oil-developing countries to also pay attention to this issue and factors such as the use of effective workforce that will increase economic growth, and also avoid over-reliance on oil income and by increasing the export of other domestic products, have a diverse export portfolio in case of a decrease in income Nafti prevented the expectations of inflation and budget deficit and brought price stability to the economy.The growth of liquidity in both groups of countries causes an increase in inflation, and since in developed countries liquidity is accompanied by high production; It does not lead to an increase in inflation, but in oil developing economies, the growth of oil income causes the economic growth of oil. increase If the government reacts to the increase in inflation by using imports, in the long term it can cause a decrease in economic growth, and if the oil income decreases, it will intensify inflation through liquidity and low economic growth. This study recommends that oil developing countries strictly prevent the application of fixed currency regimes so that oil income does not lead to liquidity changes in the country.The most effective factor on inflation in oil developing countries is inflationary expectations, which should be prevented from applying policies that cause inflationary expectations to increase. In this regard, it is recommended that the government and the central bank identify the factors affecting inflation expectations, such as increasing liquidity, increasing the exchange rate, and make other economic adjustments at appropriate times.: The main purpose of this study is to compare the effects of money supply growth on inflation in oil developing countries and developed countries.Keywords: monetary policy, Inflation, inflation expectations, Panel Data
The Impact of Profit Changes Speed on Stock Portfolio Fluctuations Companies Accepted in Tehran Stock ExchangePages 233-252Objective
The capital market is considered due to its essential role in collecting financial resources in various ways such as small and large savings, optimizing the circulation of financial resources and directing them towards the expenses and investment needs in productive economic sectors. Even some economists believe that the difference between developed and underdeveloped economies is not only in advanced technology, but it can be seen in the existence of integrated, active and extensive financial markets. A look at the favorable growth of Iran's capital market under the conditions of sanctions and the spread of the Corona virus, shows that entering this market has been the focus of people's attention and interest.Investors in the capital market seek to achieve and implement strategies that can overcome the challenges in the market. Often, investment decisions are considered in the optimal selection of investors' portfolios based on the relationship between risk and return and the level of profitability, which is a factor of the superiority of a share. As a result, profit changes are not hidden from the eyes of investors, and they react to profit changes, but they do not pay attention to the speed of profit changes, which can lead to different risks and, consequently, adverse effects on the stock portfolio. Among the factors are profit changes speed, which the lead to weaken the analysis of financial statements, the extremist reaction of investors, the lack of optimal portfolio allocation by them, and consequently, the increase in stock portfolio fluctuations. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between the profit changes speed and stock portfolio fluctuations.Method
to the available features and information, 87 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange were provided from 2009 to 2020. The Wang et al (2010) model was used to measure the speed of profit changes and The Kuronen (2013) model was used to measure the variable of stock portfolio fluctuations. The research hypotheses were also tested using the generalized least square regression model.Results
The results of the research confirm that there is a significant relationship between the rate of negative and positive profit changes and the stock portfolio fluctuations. In other words,It is expected that by identifying the factors that aggravate the volatility of the stock portfolio and controlling them, the investment risk can be minimized and investors can expect more confidence and efficiency from the capital market. Therefore, according to the theories based on the quality of profit and modern portfolio theories, the results of the first hypothesis show that the speed of positive changes in profit causes a decrease in the volatility of the stock portfolio, and the results of the second hypothesis show that the speed of negative changes in profit increases the volatility of the stock portfolio, which This can greatly help investors and companies in the stock exchange community to take advantage of this important factor and be more careful in attracting investors.Conclusion
The analysis of Iran's economy shows that this country has experienced one of the most challenging economic and social conditions during the past decades. The situation where the three factors of sanctions, Corona and the increase in the monetary base have had a significant impact on its formation and caused the economic markets, including the capital market, to turn into uncertain markets and investors to lean towards low-risk markets, and of course, the consequence of this is supply shocks. and the demand and volatility of the stock portfolio. Stock portfolio fluctuations have attracted the attention of many monetary and financial investors makers and policymakers. Increasing the range of stock portfolio fluctuations leads to a weakening the functions of financial markets. Ultimately, uncertain conditions arise that economic decisions will be more risk and expensive.Therefore, the stock exchange market of Iran has undergone many changes during the past periods, it is not possible to hope to create a more optimal market based on the previous policies and thoughts of the market. As markets move towards scientific and applied analysis, the investment community's need to identify unknown factors will increase. Therefore, considering the speed of profit changes and stock portfolio fluctuations, this can bring significant insight into the capital market and its deeper introduction for investors. Based on this, it is recommended that in the fundamental analysis of stocks under the supervision of capital market analysts, from focusing only on factors such as the review of financial statements and factors that have always been expected by non-academics, to go beyond and in order to identify these factors Known, take steps.Keywords: Investment Risk, Profit Change Speed, Stock Portfolio Fluctuations
Designing the Exploiting Model of Opportunities for Entrepreneurial Development in Iranian Waste IndustyPages 253-272ObjectivePurpose
In the modern world, growing percentage of the urban population and increasing development of the urban areas resulted in increasing consumption of the material containing irresolvable waste and the other extras associated with the modern life; so it evoked the urban managers to pay attention to the matter of the waste more seriously. In spite of many ways to achieve progress and to increase productivity, taking advantage of the entrepreneurial opportunities by applying the new technologies accompanied with creating the new markets can increase wealth and improve the national economy of the countries. In this field, having insight and identifying the entrepreneurial opportunities made this process valuable. Utilizing the entrepreneurial opportunities in the field of waste is considered as an effective factor in productivity, thus it gains the economic advantage for the countries.Method
This research with the aim of planning the utilization model of the entrepreneurial opportunities in the waste industry tends to create an insight to achieve productivity by identifying the aforementioned opportunities. In terms of method, this research is qualitative and exploratory and in terms of goal, it is applicable. Information gathering method was the semi- structured interviews and the participants were selected purposefully by the snowball method .The interviews continued till the saturation point of the theoretical views. The twelfth review was witness to the considered goal. In the quality part, analyzing data was done through the content analysis (Khanifer & Moslemi, 2018) by the three steps of coding by MAXQDA 2020 software. For reliability of the qualitative research, the methods of triangular of data sources, colleague’ review, and participants’ checking were used (Khastar, 2009). For validity, two methods of the open test reliability and reliability of agreement between two coders were used (Khastar, 2009).Findings
Interviews with the participants were continued till the saturation point was achieved in the twelfth one. The participants were selected on purpose by the snowball method. Data analysis was done through the three steps of coding by MAXQDA2020 software. Based on the research findings, “the rules and upstream documents, culture building and education, technology, and institutes” are effective in utilizing of the entrepreneurial opportunities in the waste industry.Conclusion
Up to now, in Iran, the matter of the entrepreneurial opportunities in the waste industry was not accounted as it deserved, except by a few researchers. Therefore, the present research tends to present the model of utilizing the entrepreneurial opportunities in the aforementioned industry. So, analyzing data was carried out in the three steps of coding by MAXQDA2020 software. Based on the research findings, the factors of rules and upstream documents, culture building and education, technology, and institutes were identified. In this model, the rules and upstream documents including “amending and improving the laws and the supportive laws”; culture building and education including “entrepreneurial culture in the field of waste, entrepreneurial education; the institutes including “the formal and informal ones”; technology including “attraction and usage” were identified. Parallel with the research results, Kornayich et.al (2012) explained that entrepreneurship as a factor of identification, evaluation, and opportunity utilization process in the hospital waste disposal can be effective and creates value. Mirtorabi et.al (2013) also pointed to the effect of the information sources and the communication channels in accepting the waste management and changing as well as improving the knowledge, attitudes, and skills of the rustics to fulfill the management requirements that evaluate the effective role of culture building and awareness increase, parallel with the research results. Ramavandi et. al (2014) demonstrated that in Bushehr city, waste recycling gained low rate since the industrial sector faces with challenges including lack of awareness about the advantages of recycling of recycled raw materials, weakness in separation from waste resource and unknown recycle advantages for the people and authorities. In a research entitled “the process of creation and discovery of the entrepreneurial opportunities”, Rezaee Mirghaed (2015) declared that in spite of the various studies conducted in the field of theorizing related to entrepreneurship, there is not any acceptable universal conceptual model for the experts in this field yet, unfortunately. Entrepreneurship in the meaning of value creation contains Kirzner ‘entrepreneurial discovery and Schumpeter’ innovation. Any change in the economic process leads to the value creation; therefore, the research approach tries to close the basis of the entrepreneurship theory to the economics. In other words, entrepreneurship is changing in the economic process since the process of general entrepreneurship is transferring from an economic equilibrium to another resulting in the new value. Yan & Yab (2015) emphasized separation from waste resource and separation waste disposal by the recycling processes in the waste management systems. Stephen (2020) also mentioned that a policy roadmap was suggested to achieve the goal of improving the entrepreneurial opportunity in the urban areas in order to achieve the economic competition. Morseletto (2020) expressed that the circular economics is a general expression in the field of industrial economy which is based on 10 common strategies (recovery, recycling, reproduction, recycling, renovation, repair, reuse, decrease, rethink, and refusal). Also, Leton et.al (2020) evaluated the role of government and laws and upstream documents that affirms the present research results.Keywords: Entrepreneurial Opportunity, Waste Industry, culture, Technology, Laws, Upstream Documents