فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و آمایش فضا
سال بیست و ششم شماره 3 (پیاپی 117، پاییز 1401)

South Khorasan Province has gone through rapid industrialization and urbanization processes in the last decades and is under increasing pressure from various environmental challenges such as water scarcity and intensification of pollution and ecosystem degradation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop scenarios for the future state of the environment of South Khorasan province using LIPSOR, the French school of scenario building, and by the application of simple interaction matrix models and morphological analysis to systematically help the environmental management orientations. For this purpose, key variables were first introduced as the main drivers or actors shaping the future. SMIC PROB-EXPERT software package was used to explain the initial scenarios of the future environmental situation of the province. Then a set of scenarios including the most probable scenarios were identified using MORPHOL software. Also, due to a large number of scenarios, the framework of general scenarios was used to describe different axes and conditions. The results of the study of the five main drivers in the SMIC model led to the extraction of 10 initial scenarios. Then, morphological analysis with the MORPHOL model with three political, institutional-executive, and cultural domains produced 3125 possible and probable scenarios, each of which shows the probability of D5/D6/D1/D33/D29 propulsion, respectively. Finally, the analysis of 50 possible scenarios showed that scenario 11111 is the most probable scenario (276.41%), and scenarios 11112, 11113, and 21111 are with probabilities of 184.28, 122.85, and 115.17, respectively, which are five of its constituent variables mainly indicating the probability of occurrence of low (1) to moderate (2 and 3) in the scenarios. In general, the future environmental situation of South Khorasan province is in the situation of the third quarter called lack of discretion in the environment. To change the future and move towards a better future, paying attention to each of the influential variables will be the way forward and can be directed towards a quarter of the framework with at least one flourishing axis.

Development plans define the strategy, framework, and pattern of governance and political management of space. These plans address various dimensions and aspects of governance, one of the most important aspects of which is the environmental dimension. This study, by using grounded theory in the form of a model of core categories, causal categories, context categories, interventionist categories, strategic categories, and consequences, answers the following question: what are the environmental dimensions of development plans in the Islamic Republic of Iran? After studying all development plans, 328 statements have been extracted separately for each plan. In accordance with the statements extracted in the development plans, 404 basic concepts (open coding) were identified. Then, considering content subscriptions of the open coding, 77 sub-categories and 16 main categories were generated. Also, using theoretical foundations, ecology, experts’ opinions, and researcher’s judgment axial coding was done. The results show that the main categories include axial categories ("Environmental Protection and Rehabilitation" and "Climate Change Management"), causal categories ("decentralization" and "institutional fit in accordance with environmental issues"), context categories (“environmental research,” Environmental diplomacy, environmental security, and family planning), interventionist categories (“welfare and social development” and “good governance”), strategic categories (“ecology adaptation,” “consumption pattern improvement,” and “spatial planning”), and consequences (“Green Economy” and “Green Transport”) interconnected in a paradigmatic framework.

To provide housing in Iran, in the Five-Year Development Plans after the Islamic Revolution, different policies have been made, each of which has had economic-spatial reflections on the development of cities and towns. The cities of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmed province have also experienced economic-spatial reflections under the influence of housing supply policies. This article aims to identify the economic-spatial reflections of the housing development policies on the cities of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province. The executive policies of the government (including policies of PAK, Cooperative Housing, New Towns, Land Preparation, Lease on Condition of Ownership, Tall Building, Mehr Housing, and Social Housing) have been evaluated using the survey method. The tools of data collection are questionnaires and interviews with experienced and active experts in the field of housing in 18 cities of Kohgiluyeh and Boyar Ahmad province, which have been affected by housing policies. Due to the fact that the number of experts who have experience and are active in the field of housing and housing policies in the province and especially in the city of Yasouj is limited, a total of 20 experts (14 men and 6 women) in the field of housing, including 3 managers, 6 experts, 6 university professors, and 5 urban planning Ph.D. students were selected. The results of the research show that Mehr housing, in terms of paying attention to the economic characteristics of the poor, targeting and expanding mortgages, granting long-term and low-interest special loans and credits in accordance with the income of households, has the best performance and the most impact from the economic-spatial perspective in the cities of the province. Also, cooperative housing and Lease on Condition of Ownership are the most compatible with urban and regional economic conditions in the cities of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province. According to the experts, the Mehr housing policy, Tall Building, PAK policy and the construction of new cities have had the same effects in terms of economic-spatial components, but they have statistically significant differences with other policies. Also, Mehr housing and social housing show the same effects.

The city's livability largely depends on its capacity to meet the residents’ basic needs. One of the essential components of public welfare is the ability of residents to access urban services on a neighborhood scale. This research aims at evaluating the accessibility of different socio-economic groups to urban services. Fair distribution of urban resources and services among socio-economic groups is an issue that needs attention, especially for developing countries with rapid urbanization like Iran. In this research, various methods have been used to analyze the correlation between accessibility to services and urban poverty and to provide the information needed for better decision-making. 21 social, economic, and physical indicators of statistical blocks have been used to map urban poverty. In order to map the accessibility of urban services, criteria such as the capacity of urban services (park, educational, religious, therapeutic, and sports), population density, and distance to services are considered. The results show a negative correlation between accessibility to services and urban poverty in Urmia city. The highest intensity of negative correlation between accessibility to services and urban poverty belongs to educational services (r=-0.231). This situation is not compatible with the goals of sustainable development and equal access to urban services. In this article, the areas of the city that need attention are identified on the map, which will be useful in the future planning and development of the city.

In recent years, the lack of a standard framework and the lack of a proper planning for the location of chain stores have caused most of these commercial locations not to be located according to defined standards; instead of scientific and knowledge-based work, it is mostly arbitrary. On the other hand, in most cases, the method of replacing stores in decision-making institutions is done with traditional methods and without scientific justification, and it is rather experimental and subjective. As a result, difficult access for customers and low sales and profitability have been among its consequences. Therefore, today, one of the reasons of the failure of chain stores is the lack of proper location in this area. This research is descriptive in terms of purpose and applied in terms of results. In this study, the factors affecting the optimal location of chain stores were graded using interpretive structural modeling. The geographical territory of this research is Guilan province. Considering the importance of recognizing the effective factors in the optimal location of chain stores, in this study, first, by reviewing the literature and research background, important factors were identified based on the use of experts in the field of marketing and urban geography; out of about 45 effective factors,17 main ones were identified. In the next step, using a new analytical methodology called “interpretive structural modeling,” the relationships between the dimensions and indicators of the process are determined and analyzed in an integrated manner. The results of interpretive structural modeling showed that the indicators of demographic characteristics of the region, economic factors of customers, and market attractiveness are in the sphere of influence. These indicators have high influential power with minimal dependency which broadens an understanding of the other indicators. This study presents a model for determining the causal relationships among the variables affecting the location of chain stores. The results of this study help investors and decision-makers in urban geography to choose the most appropriate path for the development of chain stores.

The need to be aware of the economic value of places of historical and touristic importance and the factors affecting creating employment, production, regional income, and public investment and appropriate policies for improving qualities, are not hidden from anyone and of course, have great importance. As one of the most important and well-known historical monuments of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Chaleshtor Castle is an important destination for tourists every year. The aim of the current research is to answer:  How much is the annual economic value of Chaleshtor Castle? So, to respond to the same, the individual cost method has been used. The statistical population includes all the visitors to Chaleshtor Castle. The data were gathered and analyzed using Cochran's formula and random sampling where 130 people were questioned by a prepared questionnaire in the summer of 2022. In this research, the travel cost generation was estimated based on the linear form and using the ordinary least square (OLS) regression method. Based on the results, the travel cost variables and the type of vehicle to reach the destination were found to be the important factors affecting the number of annual visits. In this way, each of these variables will lead to a decrease in the number of visits with a coefficient of -0.0002 and -0.287 respectively.  The average value of household entertainment for visiting Chaleshtor Castle using the travel cost method is estimated at 295,260 Rials per year and the total amount of consumer surplus per year is estimated at 230,252,925 Rials. The findings of the research can be a guide for the planners of the cultural heritage organization to determine the appropriate ticket price and provide services. Therefore, suggestions have been made to increase the attractiveness to this area by creating cultural centers such as libraries, handicraft centers, resting places such as restaurants, cafes, play centers for children, etc.

The expansion of human population, the creation of cities and villages, the construction of bridges, roads and dams are the salient factors destroying and threatening the habitat of a variety animal and plant species. Preserving the habitat of species is one of the ways to protect them from threatening factors and prevent their extinction. Protected areas include four parts such as the national natural heritage, the protected areas, the wildlife sanctuary, and the national park. The purpose of this research is to opt for the new preserved areas for the protection of 6 mammal species in Mazandaran province using the Simulated Annealing Algorithm. The maximum entropy method was used to prepare the species distribution layer. This research studied and investigated the effect of different parameters such as BLM, SPF, different protection goals (30%, 40%, 50% and 60% of the minimum area considered for any kind of protection) in the process of selecting protected areas. By examining 4 different scenarios for the protection of 6 species of mammals, the results showed that the existing protected areas (Shesh Rudbar, Asas, Hazar Jerib, Dodange Wildlife Sanctuary, Bind National Park, and Kiasar National Park) are not effective for protection purposes.