فهرست مطالب

فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیست و دوم شماره 4 (زمستان 1401)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1401/11/03
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • علی محمدی پور* صفحات 1-40

    با عنایت به سیاست گذاری بین المللی از سال 2015 مبنی بر حرکت در مسیر توسعه پایدار و بنا به تضاد پرداخت یارانه انرژی با اهداف توسعه پایدار (SDG[1]) ، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی آثار پرداخت یارانه بر تحقق توسعه پایدار در کشورهای منتخب می پردازد. به این منظور، با طراحی و ساخت شاخص ترکیبی توسعه پایدار، عملکرد 5 کشور اول جهان به لحاظ پرداخت بیشترین یارانه انرژی، با اقتصادهای بزرگ جهان از حیث بالاترین میزان GDP (عمدتا بدون پرداخت یارانه انرژی) مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. شاخص ترکیبی هدف بر اساس طراحی مدل های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره و استفاده از رویکردهای هفتگانه: Z Score ، Max-Min ، McGranahan ، EJ-Scoring ، Guttman ، TOPSIS و VIKOR در بازه زمانی 2020-1990 محاسبه، و نتایج حاصله در سطوح ایستا و پویا مقایسه گردیده اند. رتبه بندی کشورها در سطح پویا، ضمن رفع ایرادات موجود در سطح ایستا، بیانگر ارتباط منفی قوی بین پرداخت یارانه انرژی و تحقق توسعه پایدار می باشد. همچنین نتایج، نشان دهنده اوضاع نامطلوب ایران در پرداخت یارانه انرژی (رتبه اول جهان) و تحقق توسعه پایدار (رتبه آخر بین کشورهای مورد بررسی) بوده، در مقابل، آلمان بدون پرداخت یارانه انرژی، رتبه اول در این مطالعه را کسب نموده است. نهایتا نتایج آنالیز حساسیت، بیانگر سهم بالای شاخص امید به زندگی، درآمد سرانه و شاخص آموزش در شاخص ترکیبی هدف می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: مدل های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره (MADM)، یارانه انرژی، شاخص توسعه پایدار، رویکرد TOPSIS، رویکرد VIKOR
  • نعیم شکری، عباس عصاری آرانی*، علی عسگری، امیرحسین مزینی، نعمت الله اکبری صفحات 41-67

    بر اساس گزارش صندوق بین المللی پول، مصارف مستمری در سازمان تامین اجتماعی و صندوق بازنشستگی کشوری از 3/5 درصد در سال 2015 به 11 درصد در سال 2040 و در سال 2080 به 6/19 درصد تولید ناخالص داخلی خواهد رسید و در سال‎های آینده، باید بخش زیادی از بودجه کشور صرف پرداخت حقوق بازنشستگان شود. بدین منظور، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال شبیه سازی و اعمال سیاست‎های اصلاحی، جهت بهبود ناترازی مالی موجود در نظام بازنشستگی ایران با بهره گیری از مدل‎های تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE)  مبتنی بر مدل نسل های همپوشان (OLG) می‎باشد. در این راستا، از توابع واکنش آنی برای بررسی اثرات اصلاحات پارامتریک پیشنهادی استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان می‎دهد که به دنبال بروز شوک های مثبت به متغیرهای سنوات خدمت، نرخ زاد و ولد و متوسط سال‎های بیمه پردازی، ناترازی مالی صندوق‎های بازنشستگی کاهش می یابد. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، مرتبط سازی سن بازنشستگی با امید به زندگی و افزایش سال های پرداخت حق بیمه، می‎تواند ناترازی مالی را کاهش و پایداری مالی را در نظام بازنشستگی ایران افزایش دهد.

    کلیدواژگان: نظام بازنشستگی ایران، ناترازی مالی، توابع واکنش آنی، اصلاحات پارامتریک
  • لیلا ترکی*، باران مظاهری صفحات 69-98

    تحریم های مالی از دیر باز، یک ابزار قدرتمند برای حصول کشورها به اهداف سیاسی و تامین منافع شان بوده است . کشورها معمولا زمانی از تحریم  های اقتصادی استفاده می  کنند که قصد دارند کشور هدف را مجبور کنند تا سیاست  های خاصی را که مورد قبول کشورهای تحریم کننده نمی  باشند، تغییر دهند . دامنه تاثیر تحریم  های مالی، ممکن است بسیار فراتر از محدوده اقتصاد یک کشور باشد؛ به  طوری  که می  تواند علاوه بر وارد کردن ضربه بر پیکره اقتصاد، بر سیاست و فرهنگ و رفاه اجتماعی کشور هدف نیز اثر منفی بگذارد . کشور ایران نیز همواره تحت فشار تحریم  های بسیاری بوده است . بنابراین، به  دلیل تحریم  های بسیاری که در طول سال  ها بر ایران اعمال شده است، همواره دغدغه بسیاری از اقتصاددانان این بوده است که این تحریم  ها بر اقتصاد کشور چگونه اثر می  گذارد . ابعاد اقتصادی و حقوقی تحریم  ها و همچنین تنوع آنها، ارزیابی دلالت  های مرتبط با تحریم بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی را دشوار می  سازد . لذا در این پژوهش، به تحلیل و بررسی اثر تحریم  های مالی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی با استفاده از یک مدل خود رگرسیون برداری بیزی با تابع پیشین جستجوی تصادفی انتخاب متغیر در مدل  های خود رگرسیون برداری طی دوره زمانی 1399-1383پرداخته شده است . متغیرهای منتخب مورد بررسی در تحقیق، شامل شاخص فشار بازار ارز، سرمایه  گذاری  های ثابت، شاخص بهای کالاها و خدمات مصرفی، صادرات، واردات، تولید ناخالص داخلی، وام  های بانکی معوق به بخش خصوصی، پایه پولی و بدهی خارجی کشور است . برای تحلیل بهتر نتایج حاصل از مدل بیزین ور، یک مدل خود رگرسیون برداری نیز برآورد، و سپس برای هر دو مدل، به تشکیل تابع واکنش آنی پرداخته شده، و در نهایت، نتایج حاصل از هر دو مدل، با استفاده از تابع واکنش آنی، بررسی و مقایسه شده است . نتایج بیانگر آن است که مدل بیزین ور، دارای نتایج منطقی  تر و با پراکندگی کمتری نسبت به مدل خود رگرسیون برداری است؛ به  طوری  که نتایج حاصل از مدل خود رگرسیون برداری، دارای تضاد آشکاری با مطالعات تجربی و پیش بینی  های تیوری بوده، و علت آن، وجود پارامترهای فراوان و کاهش درجه آزادی مدل است، که باعث پایین آمدن دقت برآورد و همچنین پراکندگی تابع واکنش آنی می شود؛ اما مدل های بیزین ور، با منقبض نمودن مدل، این مشکل را رفع کرده و دقت برآورد را بالا می برند.

    کلیدواژگان: تحریم های مالی، مدل ور بیزی (خود رگرسیون برداری بیزی)، تابع پیشین جستجوی تصادفی انتخاب متغیر در مدل های خود رگرسیون برداری، متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی
  • پرویز داودی، محمدرضا سزاوار* صفحات 99-117

    تغییر نرخ ارز، از مسیرهای مختلف بر عملکرد اقتصادی اثرگذار است. در این مطالعه، به بررسی اثر تغییر نرخ ارز بر عملکرد متغیرهای مهم اقتصاد کلان، یعنی تولید، اشتغال و سطح عمومی قیمت ها خواهیم پرداخت. به این منظور، از یک الگوی اقتصادسنجی کلان با رویکرد داده های ترکیبی تواتر متفاوت استفاده شده است. الگوی مذکور، بر اساس مبانی نظری اقتصادی و با توجه به حقایق آشکار شده اقتصاد ایران، تصریح و به کمک داده های سری زمانی در محدوده سال های 1338 تا 1396 برآورد شده اند. از آنجا که الگوی مورد مطالعه به جهت داشتن اطلاعات کامل  تر، قدرت توضیح دهندگی بهتری نسبت به سایر مدل  های سری زمانی دارد، انتظار می رود که امکان ارزیابی دقیق تری از سیاست  های ارزی داشته باشد. الگو، دارای بخش های تولید، مخارج مصرفی و سرمایه گذاری، تجارت خارجی، دولت، اشتغال، پول و قیمت ها است. علاوه بر این، با توجه به نتایجی که از شبیه سازی پویای الگو حاصل گردید، الگو می تواند نماینده مناسبی از سازوکار اقتصاد ایران باشد. از سوی دیگر، الگوی مدنظر با لحاظ شرایط تحریم، می تواند آثار سیاست  های اقتصادی را به  گونه مناسب تری بررسی نماید. در نهایت، نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی سیاست  های ارزی در شرایط وجود تحریم، بررسی شده است. بر اساس نتایج الگو، در رابطه با سیاست تنزل ارزش پول ملی در اقتصاد ایران، افزایش نرخ ارز در شرایط تحریم، علاوه بر کاهش تولید، زمینه ساز کاهش اشتغال و فشارهای تورمی می گردد.

    کلیدواژگان: مدل کلان سنجی داده های ترکیبی با تواتر متفاوت، اقتصاد ایران، تحریم، سیاست ارزی
  • محمدجواد خسروسرشکی، علیرضا کیخا* صفحات 119-142

    هدف این مطالعه، بررسی اثر تحریم ها و وضعیت درآمد نفتی بر درجه عبور نرخ ارز برای داده های فصلی 1-1369 تا 1-1400 است. وضعیت درآمد نفتی ایران به سه دوره تحریم، فراوانی و کمبود درآمد نفتی تقسیم می شود. تفکیک دوره های کمبود و فراوانی درآمد نفتی با استفاده از روش بای-پرون (2003) و درآمد نفتی جاری دلاری ایران برای1-1369 تا 3-1390 محاسبه گردیده است و دوره تحریم مربوط به 4-1390 تا 1-1400 است. برای دوره کمبود درآمد نفتی و تحریم، محیط تورمی بالا است و برای دوره فراوانی درآمدهای نفتی، محیط تورمی پایین است. سپس با استفاده از الگوی SVAR  ، درجه عبور نرخ ارز برای هر دوره محاسبه گردید. نتایج تجزیه واریانس و تجزیه تاریخی، نشان می دهد که در دوره تحریم، شوک ساختاری نرخ ارز، بیشترین سهم را در توضیح نوسانات تورم دارد؛ درحالی  که در دو دوره دیگر، شوک ساختاری تورم، عامل اصلی توضیح دهنده نوسانات تورم است. درجه عبور نرخ ارز برای دوره کمبود درآمد نفتی 9/9 درصد، دوره فراوانی درآمد نفتی25.1 درصد و دوره تحریم 10.1  درصد است. بر خلاف اکثر مطالعات قبلی داخلی و خارجی، نتایج نشان می دهد که با تشدید محیط تورمی، درجه عبور نرخ ارز کاهش می یابد و با تخفیف محیط تورمی، درجه عبور نرخ ارز افزایش می یابد. به نظر می رسد که عامل توضیح دهنده این وضعیت، استفاده از لنگر ارزی برای مهار تورم و روند افزایشی واردات در دوره فراوانی درآمد نفتی نسبت به دو دوره دیگر باشد که به وابستگی بیشتر سبد مصرفی خانوار به کالای خارجی و نرخ ارز و به تبع آن، افزایش درجه عبور نرخ ارز منجر شده است.

    کلیدواژگان: تحریم، درآمد نفتی، درجه عبور نرخ ارز، تورم، نرخ ارز
  • فرناز دهقان، زهرا نصراللهی* صفحات 143-170

    کمبود منابع در کشورهای مختلف بخصوص کشورهای در حال توسعه، نشان از اهمیت شناسایی بخش های کلیدی برای اقتصاد این کشورها و از موضوعات مهم برای برنامه ریزان و سیاست گذاران اقتصادی است. بدین منظور، هدف از پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی بخش های کلیدی اقتصاد استان یزد و سایر اقتصاد ملی بر مبنای مدل داده   - ستانده دو منطقه ای بوده و جدول داده   - ستانده دو منطقه ای استان یزد و سایر اقتصاد ملی بر اساس روش سهم مکانی SFLQ از جدول داده   - ستانده ملی سال 1395 بانک مرکزی استخراج، و سپس با استفاده از روش های سنتی ، از طریق کشش تقاضای نهایی ستانده و تحلیل پوششی داده ها، به شناسایی بخش های کلیدی پرداخته شده و نهایتا، با بهره گیری از شاخص چندرتبه ای (MRI)، یک تعریف همزمان از نتایج ارایه شده است. در یک جمع بندی کلی از نتایج، بخش های کلیدی استان یزد، صنعت محور هستند. همچنین نتایج حاصل، اشاره به تفاوت در بخش های کلیدی با توجه به رویکرد برنامه ریزی منطقه ای هر منطقه دارد که به شناخت درست پتانسیل ها و توانایی های هر منطقه منجر خواهد شد.

    کلیدواژگان: بخش های کلیدی، برنامه ریزی منطقه ای، رشد اقتصادی، مدل داده - ستانده، استان یزد
  • سوسن اعتمادی نیا، سید جمال الدین محسنی زنوزی* صفحات 171-202

    هدف اصلی این مطالعه، بررسی و مقایسه تاثیرات آستانه  ای و غیرمستقیم صادرات با فناوری پیشرفته و متوسط بر بهره وری کل عوامل در 50 کشور در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته طی دوره زمانی 2020-2007 می  باشد. برای این منظور، از مدل رگرسیونی انتقال ملایم پانلی (PSTR) که برای داده  های تابلویی ناهمگن بسیار مناسب بوده، استفاده شده، و بدین ترتیب، صادرات با فناوری متوسط و پیشرفته به  عنوان متغیر انتقال، مورد استفاده قرار گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان می  دهد که رابطه غیرخطی بین متغیرهای مورد مطالعه وجود دارد. بر اساس نتایج آزمون  های لازم، لحاظ نمودن تنها یک تابع انتقال با یک حد آستانه  ای و دو رژیم برای برآورد غیرخطی مدل، کفایت می  کند. همچنین، لگاریتم مقدار آستانه  ای متغیر انتقال برابر 3.0816 و پارامتر شیب برابر  6.4226 برآورد شده است. در رژیم اول، مخارج تحقیق و توسعه و باز بودن تجارت، دارای اثر منفی و معنی دار بر بهره وری کل عوامل بوده که این تاثیر، با عبور از حد آستانه  ای (سطح بالای صادرات با فناوری پیشرفته) برای متغیر مخارج تحقیق و توسعه، مثبت و معنی دار شده، و همچنین در این رژیم، اثر باز بودن تجارت بر بهره وری کل عوامل، کماکان منفی بوده ولی مقدار آن در مقایسه با رژیم اول، کاهش یافته است.

    کلیدواژگان: بهره وری کل عوامل، صادرات با فناوری متوسط و پیشرفته، کشورهای در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته، رویکرد PSTR
  • اعظم اصفهانی، سارا قبادی*، کریم آذربایجانی صفحات 203-232

    هدف از نگارش این مقاله، تحلیل ارتباط بین رشد اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی و ردپای اکولوژیکی در 27 کشور درحال توسعه و 27 کشور توسعه یافته طی دوره زمانی 2018-1990 است. به منظور تحلیل ارتباط بین متغیرهای مذکور، از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته سیستمی (Sys-GMM) استفاده شد. نتایج، حاکی از آن بود که در هر دو دسته از کشورهای توسعه یافته و درحال توسعه، رشد اقتصادی با مصرف انرژی و شاخص ردپای اکولوژیکی، ارتباط متقابل داشته اند. مصرف انرژی های تجدیدناپذیر، نرخ شهرنشینی، نرخ باروری و نرخ مرگ ومیر در هر دو گروه از کشورهای مورد بررسی، اثر مثبت و متغیرهای انرژی های تجدیدپذیر، نرخ رشد فناوری و سرمایه انسانی، اثر منفی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی داشته اند. رشد اقتصادی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی کشورهای توسعه یافته، اثر منفی و بر ردپای اکولوژیکی کشورهای درحال توسعه، اثر مثبت داشته است که حاکی از اتکای بیشتر کشورهای توسعه یافته، به مصرف انرژی های تجدیدپذیر است. از طرفی، ردپای اکولوژیکی، اثر منفی و متغیرهای رشد اقتصادی، نرخ شهرنشینی و توسعه مالی، اثر مثبت بر مصرف انرژی هر دو گروه کشورهای مورد بررسی داشته اند. ردپای اکولوژیکی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای توسعه یافته، اثر منفی و بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای درحال توسعه، اثر مثبت داشته است. انرژی های تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر، توسعه مالی، درجه باز بودن تجاری، سرمایه فیزیکی، نیروی کار و جهانی سازی اقتصادی، اثر مثبت و متغیرهای بی ثباتی سیاسی و نرخ مرگ ومیر، اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی هر دو گروه کشورهای مورد بررسی داشته اند.

    کلیدواژگان: ردپای اکولوژیکی، رشد اقتصادی، انرژی های تجدیدپذیر، انرژی های تجدیدناپذیر
  • نرگس سنجری کنارصندل، بهنام الیاس پور، روح الله بابکی* صفحات 233-260

    در طول دو دهه گذشته، افزایش گرمایش جهانی مرتبط با تغییرات آب و هوایی، توجهات را به انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای بویژه دی اکسید کربن (CO2) به عنوان عامل اصلی گرمایش جهانی جلب کرده است. مشکل این انتشارها در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت مانند ایران که سطوح بالایی از عدم اطمینان اقتصادی را تجربه می کنند، بحرانی تر است. میزان آلودگی محیط زیست در قالب میزان گاز دی اکسیدکربن منتشر شده در فضا، می تواند از عوامل متعددی ناشی شود. این عوامل از نظر اهمیت و میزان تاثیر، در وضعیت یکسانی قرار ندارند و الزاما نمی توان همه آنها را با هم، در یک موقعیت مکانی یا زمانی مشاهده کرد. از این رو، مطالعه رابطه بین نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی و قیمت نفت با انتشار دی  اکسید کربن در ایران، از اهمیت ویژه ای برخوردار است. بر این اساس، در پژوهش حاضر، هدف آن است تا تاثیر نامتقارن نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی و قیمت نفت بر انتشار دی  اکسید کربن در ایران، طی بازه زمانی 2018-1981 بررسی شود. به این منظور، از روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) استفاده شده، و نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل پژوهش، نشان‎دهنده تاثیر نامتقارن نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی بر انتشار کربن است؛ به طوری که تاثیر تغییرات مثبت متغیر نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت بر انتشار کربن، مثبت و معنی دار بوده، درحالی‎که بین تغییرات منفی متغیر نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی با انتشار کربن در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت، رابطه معنی داری وجود ندارد. همچنین، نتایج نشان می دهد که تاثیر قیمت نفت بر انتشار کربن، متقارن است، به طوری که بین قیمت نفت با انتشار کربن در کوتاه مدت، رابطه معنی داری وجود ندارد، اما بین تغییرات این متغیر با انتشار کربن در بلندمدت، رابطه مثبت و معنی داری وجود دارد.

    کلیدواژگان: انتشار دی اکسید کربن، نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی، قیمت نفت، روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توزیعی غیرخطی
  • مائده آذربایجانی، مصطفی عمادزاده*، مجید صامتی صفحات 261-281

    براساس الگوهای رشد انرژی - اعم از تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر - از عوامل موثر بر رشد اقتصادی است، اما مصرف انرژی های تجدیدپذیر به واسطه آلایندگی کمتر، به رشد و توسعه پایدار کمک می کند. بدین ترتیب، کشورها جهت ایجاد شرایط مناسب برای استفاده از انرژی های تجدیدپذیر همچون برق، تلاش می کنند. با برقراری رقابت کامل در بازاری همچون بازار برق، از جنبه خرد، مازاد رفاه مصرف کننده و تولید کننده، بدون دخالت دولت حداکثر می شود و انگیزه ورود بخش خصوصی به بازار افزایش می یابد. از جنبه کلان نیز با کاهش قیمت و افزایش تولید ناشی از ایجاد رقابت، مصرف برق به  عنوان انرژی تجدیدپذیر در مقایسه با انرژی های تجدیدناپذیر، افزایش یافته و باعث کاهش تخریب زیست محیطی و افزایش رشد و توسعه پایدار می شود. طی دهه های گذشته در صنعت برق، در سه بخش تولید، انتقال و توزیع، شرایط انحصار طبیعی برقرار بوده و مازاد رفاه مصرف کننده و تولید کننده حداکثر نمی شده است و بنابراین، دخالت دولت توجیه داشت. در سال های اخیر، به  علت پیشرفت فناوری و حذف انحصار طبیعی به  دلیل وجود صرفه های ناشی از مقیاس، انگیزه ورود بخش خصوصی به تولید برق تقویت شده است. هدف از نگارش این مقاله، اندازه گیری درجه رقابت در 9 شرکت برق منطقه ای ایران طی سال های 1398-1390می  باشد و بدین منظور، از دو رویکرد ساختاری ضریب آنتروپی و رویکرد غیرساختاری پانزار-راس استفاده شد. درجه رقابت به روش پانزار-راس، با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته، مقدار عددی 0.253 و به روش ضریب آنتروپی، عدد 0.215 را به  دست داد. بدین ترتیب، هر دو رویکرد ساختاری و غیرساختاری، موید یکدیگر و بیانگر غیر انحصاری بودن صنعت برق در ایران و نزدیک شدن به حالت رقابتی می باشند.

    کلیدواژگان: رقابت، قدرت بازار، بازار برق، رشد اقتصادی پایدار
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  • Ali Mohammadipour* Pages 1-40
    Introduction

    Considering the international policy towards sustainable development and conflict of the energy subsidy with the SDG, the present study examines the effects of subsidy on the realization of sustainable development in the selected countries. For this purpose, by designing and constructing a Composite Indicator (CI) for sustainable development, the performance of the top five countries in the world in terms of paying the most energy subsidies (first group), is compared with the performance of the world's large economies in terms of the highest rate of GDP (second group, mainly without paying energy subsidies). The hypotheses of the research are: 1) there is a negative relationship between the rankings of countries in terms of the largest energy subsidies with the ranking based on the realization of sustainable development. 2) the countries of the second group (with the lowest energy subsidies) have on average a better situation in achieving sustainable development compared to the countries of the first group. 3) among the countries of the second group, China has the least realization in sustainable development by paying significant energy subsidies.

    Methodology

    In the present study, the composite index of sustainable development is investigated using 12 variables in the form of three economic, social and environmental dimensions and based on the design of Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM). The targeted CI is calculated using seven approaches: Z-Score, Max-Min, McGranahan, Experts’ Judgements Scoring, Guttman, TOPSIS and VIKOR, for selected countries over the period of 1990-2020, and the results are presented and compared at static and dynamic levels. To weight the variables, the same weighting technique, McGranahan, EJ scoring, Guttman and CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) are used in the calculations.

    Findings

    The results of the study indicate the unfavorable situation of Iran in paying energy subsidies (ranked first in the world) and the realization of sustainable development (ranked last among the countries surveyed); Germany, on the other hand, ranks first in the study without paying energy subsidies. Ranking countries at the dynamic level, while eliminating the existing problems at the static level, indicates a strong negative relationship between paying energy subsidies and achieving sustainable development. This confirms the first hypothesis of the research. In this regard, the correlation between the average energy subsidy and SDIMax-Min  has been increased to -0.74 and the ranked correlation between SDIMax-Min  and subsidy payment has been improved to -0.85. On the other hand, the average values of sustainable development indicators, with the change of study approach and weighting techniques, have had similar and stable results, which all indicate that the ranking of countries in different situations has become more realistic in the dynamic level compared to the static level. Also, the comparison of the average sustainable development realization in the first and second groups, shows that in terms of quantity and rank, the countries of the second group have a significant advantage over the first group, which means confirming the second hypothesis. And finally, in the ranking based on 7 approaches, China is ranked 4th after Germany, America and Japan in 6 approaches, which means confirming the third hypothesis. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate the high share of life expectancy, per capita income and education index in the targeted CI.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    Regarding some minor differences in the results of the seven approaches, using De Montis et al. (2021)'s experience based on calculating the average ranks and Miç & Figen Antmen (2021)'s experience based on setting the criterion of the highest repetition of the rank in different approaches, all hypotheses are confirmed and the ranking of the countries does not change. Also, if we perform a sensitivity analysis on the approaches, there will be no change in the final ranking result. The main suggestion derived from the results of the research is the necessity of planning to eliminate energy subsidies in the country in accordance with international policies from 2015. However, according to Mohammadipour et al. (2022), the removal of energy subsidies and the modification of the energy carriers’ prices creates very extensive and lasting (long-term) destructive effects on macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, according to Taylor (2020), based on the REmap (Renewable Energy roadmap analysis) by IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), firstly, policy development in the direction of renewable energy, nuclear, etc., and planning to reduce fossil fuel subsidies have been identified in the form of two axes (until 2030 and until 2050). And secondly, a special path has been drawn to manage and move from harmful subsidies to the environment and sustainable development to environmentally friendly subsidies until 2050. Therefore, considering the destructive effects of energy subsidies, it is suggested that all reforms and removal of energy subsidies should be carried out in the form of a comprehensive, regulated, gradual program with a strong redistributive role of the government. Secondly, all these actions should be done in line with the global planning and policy and taking into account the REmap. Also, the research results of the study suggest that in the design of MADM models, when the data are of the time series type, Z-Score, Max-Min, McGranahan, Experts’ Judgements Scoring and Guttman approaches perform better (and more recommended) by replacing the opposite variable for each time series data. However, when the data are not in the time series form, the performance of TOPSIS and VIKOR approaches are optimal (and more recommended) by simplifying complex relationships.

    Keywords: Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM), Energy Subsidy, Sustainable Development Index, TOPSIS Method, VIKOR Approach
  • Naeim Shokri, Abbas Assari Arani*, Ali Asgary, Amirhosein Mozayani, Nematollah Akbari Pages 41-67

    Aim and Introduction :

    The pension system is of special place in the employment regulations of the private and public sectors of all countries of the world. In addition, pension funds are known as one of the most sensitive and complex financial institutions in today's world, whose main goal is to preserve the livelihood and dignity of people in old age. Pension funds have been created to provide social rights for citizens, and a long-term horizon is one of the main features of such funds. By receiving insurance premiums from the insured and investing the resources gathered in the early years and the so-called youth period of the fund, pension funds provide pensions for retirees during their maturity. The process of maturity of pension funds occurs naturally and if it is accompanied by the aging of the country's population, it will intensify. According to the International Monetary Fund, pension expenditures in the Social Security Organization and the civil serpents' Pension Fund will increase from 5.3% in 2015 to 11% in 2040 and 19.6% of GDP in 2080 and in the future, a large part of the country's budget should be spent on paying pensions.

    Methodology

    This study seeks to simulate and apply corrective policies to improve the financial misalignment in the Iranian pension system using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on the overlapping generations (OLG) model. In this regard, impulse response functions were used to examine the effects of the proposed parametric corrections. The DSGE models are stochastic, microeconomic-founded, provide the possibility of dynamic evaluation of parametric changes as well as random changes of exogenous variables of the system, and give inter-temporal optimization of the behavior of economic agents. In addition, the mechanism of intergenerational transfer in the pension funds, can be well evaluated and studied by these models, so it seems to be a suitable tool for studying the effects of demographic parametric changes on the financial balance of pension funds.

    Findings

    The results show that positive shocks to the variables of years of service, birth rate, and average years of insurance, the financial misalignment of pension funds decreases. According to the results, linking the retirement age with life expectancy and increasing the years of premium payment can reduce financial misalignment and increase financial stability in the Iranian pension system.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    The government's decision to implement reforms in Iran's pension system is essential, taking into account social considerations and the step-by-step nature of these reforms. However, according to our findings, the following policies should be presented to improve the financial imbalance of Iran's pension system:1. The results of the positive shock analysis to the years of service variable showed that the later retirement of people reduces economic dissatisfaction, and considering the past and projected increase in life expectancy in Iran, increasing the retirement age is justified and logical. According to global experience, the average retirement age should be increased from 60 to 63 years for men and from 55 to 58 years for women (one year for every two years). Also, in the future, it is suggested that the average retirement age be linked to the growth of life expectancy.2. The analysis results of the positive shock to the birth rate variable showed that the young population reduces the financial imbalance. Therefore, it is necessary to implement policies to encourage birth in the coming years, because the population aging phenomenon will have destructive effects on the stability of the pension system.3. A positive shock to the average variable of years of insurance has positive effects on reducing the financial imbalance of pension funds. In this regard, it is suggested to change the calculation of pensions in all pension funds, including state, military, and social security organizations, based on the average salary of the last three to five years of employment, which it is currently based on the average of the previous two years.

    Keywords: Pension system, Financial Misalignment, Impulse Response Functions, Parametric Corrections
  • Leila Torki*, Baran Mazaheri Pages 69-98
    Aim and Introduction 

    Financial sanctions have long been a powerful tool for countries to achieve their political goals and secure their interests. Countries usually apply economic sanctions when they intend to force the target country to change certain policies that are not acceptable to the sending countries. The impact of financial sanctions may be far beyond the scope of a country's economy, so that in addition to affect the economy, it can also have a negative effect on the politics, culture, and social welfare of the target country. Iran has always been under the pressure of many sanctions. Therefore, due to the many sanctions that have been imposed on Iran over the years, the concern of many economists has always been how these sanctions affect Iran's economy. The economic and legal dimensions of sanctions as well as their diversity make it difficult to evaluate the implications related to sanctions on macroeconomic variables.By examining the studies conducted in the field of financial sanctions and their effects on economic variables, it was found that most of these studies had investigated the effect of sanctions on two or more macro-economic variables, However, in the present study, themost important macroeconomic variables are included in the model and analyzed. Another innovation that distinguishes this research from other studies is the research method used in this research, which has not been used in Iran for the subject under study. 

     Methodology:

    First, the optimal interval of the model is determined using the Hannan-Quinn statistic, then the Bayesian vector regression model is estimated using the optimal interval, and then the effect of financial sanctions on the variables of the model is investigated. Inorder to create a comparative framework, the results of the Bayesian VAR model are analyzed, and the results of both BVAR and VAR models are compared. It should be noted that Eviews 12 and 16, Excel and Matlab 2021 softwares were are used to estimate the model and analyze the results and form the instantaneous response function.

    Findings

    After estimating the Bayesian vector auto-regression model with the SSVS prior, the results of the instantaneous response functions are as follows:The effect of the shock on the variable of fixed investments is negative and decreasing. The effect of the shock on the price index variable of consumer goods and services is positive and increasing. The effect of the shock on the export variable is negative and decreasing. The effect of the shock on the import variable is negative and decreasing. The effect of the shock on the GDP variable is negative and decreasing. The effect of the shock on the variable of overdue loans to the private sector is positive and increasing. The shock effect in the monetary base variable is negative and increasing. The effect of the shock on the country's external debt variable is negative and increasing. The effect of the shock on the variable of the currency market pressure index is negative and increasing.After estimating the vector auto-regression model, the results of the instantaneous response functions are as follows:The effect of the shock on the variable of fixed investments is negative and increasing. The effect of the shock in the price index variable of consumer goods and services is negative and increasing. The effect of the shock on the export variable cannot be investigated. The effect of the shock on the import variable cannot be investigated. The effect of the shock on the GDP variable is negative and variable. The effect of the shock on the variable of overdue loans to the private sector is negative and variable. The effect of the shock on the monetary base variable is negative and variable. The effect of the shock on the country's external debt variable is negative and increasing. The effect of the shock on the variable of the currency market pressure index is positive and variable.As it is clear from the results, the information obtained from the auto-regression vector model is very inaccurate and with high variance, and the reason for this is, as previously stated, the existence of many parameters and the reduction of the degree of freedom of the model, which causes the accuracy to decrease. The estimate as well as the dispersion function becomes instantaneous. But Bayesian models solve this problem by shrinking the model and increase the estimation accuracy. As it is clear from the instantaneous response functions obtained by this method, the graphs have less dispersion and are much closer to the middle line, and also by examining the results, it can be said that the results are consistent with experimental studies and predictions taken is closer.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    The lack of appropriate quantitative indicators has caused most of the studies related to the investigation of the effects of sanctions to be focused on the explanation of the channels of the impact of the sanctions on the economic environment. Sanctions affect various economic sectors such as trade, investment, employment and economic growth regardless of success or failure in achieving the ultimate goal. Therefore, for accurate policies in these areas, it is necessary to evaluate the exact amount of the effects of sanctions on these sectors based on quantitative models, along with the influence channels.According to the results of the auto-regression Bayesian vector model with SSVS prior, financial sanctions have a negative effect on the GDP and cause it to decrease. With the decrease in the productive capacity of the economy, fixed investments also decrease. A decrease in economic growth causes a recession. A decrease in private consumption, private investment, and a decrease in economic growth can greatly strengthen the recessionary conditions, therefore, it is recommended that the government, while managing the budget, avoid excessive reductions in construction costs, so that by strengthening the effective demand in the economy, it can bring it out of stagnation.On the other hand, financial sanctions reduce the country's exports and imports and increase the country's foreign debt. Therefore, it is suggested that the import of luxury goods, which have a high value, should be put on the agenda in the conditions of prohibited sanctions and self-sufficiency in the production of some imported products. Besides, increasing the diversification of export goods can partially compensate for the decrease in exports. In this case, the policy of supporting domestically produced goods and export-oriented goods is recommended.Since financial sanctions increase the pressure index of the currency market, it is suggested to prevent the entry of luxury goods and to put autarky in the production of these goods. In this regard, the creation of knowledge-based companies and the creation of career guidance and specialized employment offices in universities and the policies of training human resources in the specialties needed by society should be included in the goals of the country's vision.

    Keywords: Financial sanctions, Bayesian VAR model (Bayesian vector regression), Prior SSVS function, macroeconomic variables
  • Parviz Davoodi, Mohamadreza Sezavar* Pages 99-117
    Introduction

    All economists believe that the most important goals of economic policy are achieving full employment, price stabilization and economic growth in the society. On the other hand, rendering the formation of the exchange rate to the market mechanism and increasing it disproportionately with the purchasing power of the rial has a negative effect on production and employment and causes an increase in prices and a decrease in the value of the national currency, which again provides the ground for the next increase in the exchange rate. For this purpose, in most societies, especially in developing countries, currency policies are used to achieve the mentioned goals. Changes in exchange rates affect economic performance in different ways. In this study, we will examine the effect of exchange rate changes on the performance of important macroeconomic variables, namely production, employment and the general level of prices. Taking into account the effects of sanctions against the country, the model considers the mechanism and channel of its effect on the foreign sector of the economy, while creating an index with monthly frequency for it, and its effect has been calculated directly on all macroeconomic variables of the foreign sector of the model.

    Methodology

    During the last two decades, tremendous developments have taken place in the field of modeling time series variables and predicting the future values of economic variables, one of which is to specify and estimate equations where the variables involved in that equation, unlike usual, have different frequencies. Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) has been specified and estimated with the help of time series data over the period 1959-2017. Mixed data sampling regressions are now commonly used to deal with time series data sampled at different frequencies.A MIDAS regression is a direct forecasting tool which can relate future low-frequency data with current and lagged high-frequency indicators, and yield different forecasting models for each forecast horizon. It can flexibly deal with data sampled at different frequencies and provide a direct forecast of the low-frequency variable. It incorporates each individual high-frequency data in the regression, which solves the problems of losing potentially useful information and including mis-specification.

    Results and Discussion

    The presented macro econometric model is developed in the framework of the aggregate supply-aggregate demand model. Total demand is made up of household consumption expenditures, investment expenditures separately from private and government, government current expenditures and net exports. The production function forms the supply side of the economy according to the utilization rate of the production capacity. The modeling of the two parts of supply and demand has been done in a completely consistent manner, so that after the estimation of the model, it is possible to solve and simulate the model to examine the effect of economic policies and predict macro variables. According to the results of the model, in relation to the policy of devaluation of the national currency in the Iranian economy, the increase in the exchange rate in the face of sanctions, in addition to reducing production, paves the way for employment and inflationary pressures. Indeed, The incorrect approach of increasing the exchange rate has not only limited economic growth due to the increase in production costs, but has also caused the impoverishment of the oppressed and the unfair distribution of income in the society.

    Conclusion

    Because the model under study has better explanatory power than other time series models due to more complete information, it is expected that it will be possible to evaluate exchange rate policies more accurately. The model has sections on production, consumption and investment expenditures, foreign trade, government, employment, money and prices. In addition, according to the very good results obtained from the dynamic simulation of the model, the model can be a good representative of the mechanism of the Iranian economy. Finally, the results of the evaluation of foreign exchange policies in the context of sanctions can be reviewed.

    Keywords: MIDAS-Macro Econometric Model (MIDAS-MEM), Iran's economy, sanctions, foreign exchange policy
  • Mohammadjavad Khosrosereshki, Alireza Keikha* Pages 119-142
    Introduction

    Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is one of the most important indicators for monetary policymakers that shows the impact of exchange rate volatility on price indices (such as CPI, PPI, etc.). The economic stability and inflation environment are two factors affecting ERPT. The lower the inflation environment, the lesser the ERPT. In an oil-exporting country, the long-run situation of oil revenues can be a state variable of the economy and affect the expectations of economic agents. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of sanctions against Iran and oil revenues situation on the ERPT from 1990Q2 to 2021Q1.

    Methodology

    Regarding the implementing date of sanctions (2012Q1), the sanction period is from 2012Q1 to 2021Q1. Considering Lucas' critique, the switching models are not appropriate, and separated models are preferred. Therefore, by using the Bai-Perron (2003) method and taking oil revenues as a state variable of economy, the rest of the period is separated into two periods. The first period (from 1990Q1 to 2000Q4) is the phase of shortage in oil revenues and the second period (from 2001Q1 to 2011Q4) is the phase of abundance in oil revenues. The inflation environment during sanctions and shortage in oil revenues was high, and it was low in the period of abundance in oil revenues. The ERPT for each period was calculated using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. Oil price gap is the exogenous variable and the endogenous variables are respectively as follows: USA GDP, USA CPI, domestic GDP, exchange rate, liquidity and domestic CPI. All variables are in the first difference of logarithmic form. The Cholesky decomposition were used. The optimal lags for each model were selected by Hannan-Quinn information criterion (HQ), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Final Prediction Error (FPE).In this model, ERPT is the ratio of the accumulated response of CPI to exchange rate structural shock. ERPT=k=1nDLCPIkk=1nDLEXk   (1)To investigate the effect of endogenous variables shocks on domestic CPI, variance and historical decomposition are used. Finally, the autoregressive trend of imports for each period is calculated to explain the status of imports versus different oil revenues. These equations can explain the dependency of CPI to imports.

    Results and Discussion

    Only the ERPT in the sanctions period has a long-run effect on the economy. This effect is about 43%. The ERPT is 9.9% for the period of shortage in oil revenues, 25.1% for the period of abundance in oil revenues and 10.1% for the sanctions period. Unlike most previous studies, the results show that the lower the inflation environment, the higher the ERPT, and the higher the inflation environment, the lower the ERPT. The main cause of these unexpected changes in ERPT is related to share of imports in consumption basket. The import trend, either in the sanctions or the shortage oil revenues period, was decreasing while in the abundant oil revenues period, was increasing.The results of the variance and historical decomposition show that in the period of sanctions, the exchange rate structural shocks have the largest share in inflation shocks, while in the other two periods, the inflation structural shock has the largest share in inflation shocks.

    Conclusion

    The central bank of Iran is using the nominal exchange rate as an anchor to limit inflation and, finally, increase the monetary policymaker's credibility.  In Iran, increasing oil revenues leads to implementing the crawling peg exchange rate system instead of the managed floating exchange rate system, and consequently, not only the PPI inflation will be greater than the imported goods inflation, but also the imports will increasingly grow. Therefore, it is expected that the share of imports in the consumption basket grows and CPI will be more sensitive to imports. These results can explain the ERPT changes.In order to increase the credibility of the monetary policy maker and reduce the ERPT sensitivity to oil revenue situations, instead of using the nominal exchange rate anchor, the central bank should be more independent, commit to implementing monetary policy. So, according to the real sector of the economy, the central bank should announce its goals in the short-run and commit to them and announce the status report at the appointed times, and in the medium run, the central bank should pursue only its goals implicitly and increase its credibility among economic agents by making the economy more predictable. The more independent the central bank is, the easier it will be to follow the above policy.

    Keywords: Sanction, Oil Revenues, Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Inflation, Exchange Rate
  • Frnaz Dehghan, Zahra Nasrollahi* Pages 143-170
    Introduction

    In order to evaluate the socioeconomic development, various criteria are used to evaluate the livelihood, welfare, and social changes of human life. The economic progress is one of the important dimensions of development. The social dimension of development, which leads to the creation of justice for different members of a society, is another important aspect of development, and the realization of this goal requires planning. Land planning, which seeks to pay attention to regional potentials and differences, is a step in this direction. Ignoring these capabilities will lead to resources waste, intensifying regional dualities and negative consequences. For this purpose, the aim of the current research is to identify the key sectors of the economy of Yazd province based on the multi-regional input-output table. The innovation of the current research is to investigate all the economic activities of Yazd province and national economy and to identify the key parts of the two regions.

    Methodology

    In the current research, we seek to identify and evaluate the key economic sectors of Yazd province and national economy using traditional methods, elasticity of final demand, data envelopment analysis (DEA) and finally a multi-ranked index using multi regional input-output table. In this article, the Central Bank's 2016 input-output table was used, which was the most up-to-date official statistical data table approved and available at the time of the research. Also, the regional input-output table of 2015 Yazd province and national economy has been extracted from the updated input output table of Central Bank and regional accounts of the same year by using specific Flegg location quotient (SFLQ) method. The input-output table of the Central Bank, according to the production and economic structure of the two regions, and using the ISIC classification method, has been aggregated into 20 sectors.

    Results and Discussion

    The results of the present research show that in the traditional method, in total, the section "Manufacturing metal factory products except machinery and equipment" and three sections "Manufacturing paper and paper products and printing", "Manufacturing products from rubber and plastic" and "Manufacturing metals" "Basic" are respectively known as the key sectors of Yazd province and other national economies. In the final demand elasticity method of Yazd province, the sections "Manufacture of motor vehicles and other transportation equipment", "Manufacture of clothing, processing and dyeing of fur, tanning and polishing of leather and other leather products" and "Manufacture of unclassified machinery and equipment in Other" and for the rest of the national economy, the sectors "Manufacturing textiles", "Manufacturing basic metals" and "Manufacturing non-metallic mineral products" are ranked first to third. In the third method, known as data envelopment analysis method, in Yazd province, the "Manufacturing of motor vehicles and other transportation equipment" sector and in other national economies, the "Manufacturing of paper, paper products and printing" sector are known as key sectors.In a general summary using a Multi Ranking Index (MRI), in Yazd province, "Textile manufacturing", "Clothing manufacturing, fur processing and dyeing, tanning and polishing of leather and other leather products", "Wood manufacturing and wooden products", "Coke manufacturing, Products from the refining of petroleum and nuclear fuels and the manufacture of chemical materials and products", "Manufacture of basic metals", "Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified", "Manufacture of motor vehicles and other transport equipment", "Manufacture of furniture and articles Not Elsewhere Classified", "Water, Electricity and Gas", "Construction", "Transportation" and at the level of other national economy sectors "Clothing manufacturing, processing and dyeing of fur, tanning and polishing of leather and other leather products" , "Making wood and wooden products", "Making paper, paper products and printing", "Making rubber and plastic products", "Making basic metals", "Manufacturing, repairing and installing subsidized, electronic and optical products, manufacturing, repairing and installation of electrical equipment”, “Manufacture of furniture and articles not elsewhere classified” are identified as key sectors.

    Conclusion

    The findings of the present research indicate that the use of different criteria can show a different picture of the economic performance of the sectors. Using traditional methods, key sectors are industry-oriented. In the final demand elasticity method, the priority of the sectors is determined based on the importance of each sector, and in the data envelopment analysis method, the results are estimated based on the efficiency value of each sector. These results show the importance of paying attention to choose the right method in the evaluation of key sectors. Although the key sectors determined using different methods are different, the common point of all three methods is that the key sectors of Yazd province are industry-oriented. Therefore, according to the criteria used in the three methods, it can be seen that the province is well industrialized and the role of industry in the economic structure of the province is dominant.

    Keywords: Key sectors, Regional Planning, Economic Growth, Input-Output Table, Yazd Province
  • Susan Etemadinia, Seyed Jamaledin Mohseni Zonouzi* Pages 171-202
    Introduction

    Technological innovation is one of the key indicators for economic growth and productivity. Recent studies show that R&D investment causes technological change. However, this relationship is not always obvious and seems to vary according to the level of economic development. A large number of studies on developed countries confirm the positive relationship between research and development, innovation and productivity. However, in developing countries, this relationship is not always clear. In this regard, in order to allocate an important share of national income to research and development, developing economies need to achieve a high and sustainable economic growth rate or create an economic development policy based on new innovation. This paper investigates the threshold effect of medium-high technology exports on total factor productivity in 50 developing and developed countries over the period 2007-2020.

    Methodology

    For analyzing data, panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model is used, which was presented and expanded by Gonzalez et al. (2005) and Colletaz & Hurlin (2006) and is very suitable for heterogeneous panel data. Thus, Medium-High Technology Exports index is chosen as the transition variable. Following the study of Hammar and Bellarebi (2021), the general model shows the relationship between the logarithm of total factor productivity, the logarithm of advanced and medium exports (transition variable), the logarithm of trade openness, and the logarithm of research and development expenditures.

    Results and Discussion

    The results show a nonlinear relationship between the variables under study. Based on the necessary test results, considering only one transition function with a threshold value and two regimes is sufficient for nonlinear estimation of the model. Also, the logarithm of the value of the transition variable threshold is estimated about 3.0816 and the slope parameter is estimated about 6.4226. Research and development (R&D) expenditures and trade have negative significant effects on total factor productivity in the first regime on total factor productivity that this effect by crossing the threshold (Medium-High Technology Exports) effect for the variable of R&D expenditures becomes positive and insignificant. This result is consistent with the study of Sepherdoost and Afshari (2016). In addition, the results show that the influence of trade on total factor productivity is negative and significant, but its influence is lower than before, in the second regime. This result is consistent with the study of Lotfalipour et al. (2015)

    Conclusion

    Considering the role of high and medium technology exports in the relationship between research and development expenditures and total factor productivity, it can be said that developing countries in the initial stages of growth can increase their productivity by increasing the export of high technology industries, to a level of specific development, despite the very high importance of research and development in the development of high-tech industries. Only a very small part of the country's resources is spent on research and development, and the weakness of the workforce has reduced the utilization of this small amount of domestic research and development investment. So, the low contribution of research and development expenses indicates that companies do not have much desire for innovative efforts and the creation of new technology transfer capacity as a stimulus for the quantitative and qualitative growth of industrial products. This action has caused them to not provide new products and services and reduce their competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets.The most important policy recommendation is that the governments of developing countries should develop high and medium technology exports witch through their positive effects such as productivity growth, reduction of production costs, improvement of financial development and growth of innovation and technology, it is possible to achieve favorable economic growth and to improve the productivity of all factors. Also, the development of exports with advanced and medium technology and knowledge-based production will initially attract educated and specialized unemployed people, and with the improvement of management practices, the productivity of production factors and the level of technology will increase and lead to product innovation. Therefore, considering the importance of exporting with advanced and medium technology and knowledge-based production, it is suggested that the universities move towards the third generation university, in which case the chain of knowledge to technology will be completed in the university and the university will support the industries by developing the latest technologies. It is also suggested that in order to improve their competitiveness in the international arena and to advance their development goals, developing countries allocate a greater share of their income resources to research and development and create incentives for researchers in various economic sectors, especially in industries with technological capabilities, and move more towards the knowledge-based economy and the implementation of research policies based on innovation.

    Keywords: Total Factor Productivity, Medium-High Technology Exports, Selected Developing, developed Countries, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR)
  • Azam Esfahani, Sara Ghobadi*, Karim Azarbayejani Pages 203-232
    Introduction

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and ecological footprint in 27 developing countries and 27 developed countries during the period 1990-2018.

    Methodology

    This paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and ecological footprint in 27 selected developing countries and 27 selected developed countries over a period of 1990-2018. The present model was developed according to as Akadiri et al. (2019) and Mohammad et al. (2019), which are in the form of the following three equations:  (3)The EFP is an ecological footprint index that compares the rateof resource consumption and production of human waste with the rate of resource reproduction and waste disposal by the biosphere, being defined in terms of the amount of land needed to maintain this cycle. EG is described as the economic growth. NREC is the consumption of non-renewable energy and includes energy from combustible non-renewable energy, such as oil, gas, hydrocarbons, coal, and nuclear energy. REC is the consumption of renewable energy. FD is financial development. URB is the growth rate of urbanization. TO is the degree of trade openness. L is the labor force. K is an investment. HC is human capital. FR is the fertility rate. MR is the mortality rate. PI is political instability. TEC is the technology. KOFE is the globalization of the economy. In order to analyze the relationship between the mentioned variables, the Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) was used.

    Results and Discussion

    The results showed that in both groups of developed and developing countries, economic growth was correlated with energy consumption and ecological footprint index. Nonrenewable energy consumption, urbanization rate, fertility rate and mortality rate in both groups of the country had positive effects and the renewable energy, technological growth rate and human capital had negative effects on ecological footprint. Economic growth had a negative effect on the ecological footprint of developed countries and a positive effect on the ecological footprint of developing countries, which indicates that more developed countries rely on the use of renewable energy. Ecological footprint has a negative effect and economic growth, urbanization rate and financial development had positive effects on energy consumption in both groups of countries. Ecological footprint has had a negative effect on the economic growth of developed countries and a positive effect on the economic growth of developing countries. Renewable and non-renewable energy, financial development, degree of trade openness, physical capital, labor and economic globalization had positive effects and political instability and mortality rates had negative effects on economic growth in both groups.

    Conclusion

    Based on the results of the research, it is suggested that countries, especially developing countries, try to create and use clean energy. High information, proper education, exchange of information with other countries to benefit from the information and advanced goods that are in line with the environment, taxation of producers who use polluting energy and granting tax exemptions and low-interest and long-term loans to producers who use clean energy will reduce the ecological footprint. Given the impact of non-renewable and renewable energy on growth and economic development, the contradiction of the impact of economic growth on the ecological footprint in developed and developing countries indicates that developed countries have adopted an approach based on which renewable energy is used rather than non-renewable energy in the production process. While the use of non-renewable energy sources in developing countries, although leading to economic growth, has led to environmental degradation. Since increasing economic growth is one of the most important economic goals of countries, it is necessary for policymakers to take measures in terms of economic growth, which imposes the least damage to the environment and achieves the goals of sustainable development. In this regard, it is recommended that the developing countries, as well as the developed countries, use renewable and less polluting energy such as solar, wind, and hydropower instead of non-renewable energy.

    Keywords: Ecological Footprint, Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, Non-Renewable Energy, Globalization
  • Narges Sanjari Konarsandal, Behnam Elyaspour, Roohollah Babaki* Pages 233-260
    Introduction

    Excessive carbon emissions and global warming caused by human activities have become serious challenges to the human society and have raised global concerns. Currently, air pollution has become so important in many big countries of the world and especially big cities of Iran. Air pollution has forced governments to adopt short-term and long-term policies and plans for solving it.Policy uncertainty related to economic decision-making is of great importance in the global economy. Numerous researches have shown that the uncertainty of economic policies is closely related to various economic indicators. In addition to the economic effect, the uncertainty in economic policies has an environmental effect. Increasing economic policy uncertainty weakens the government's commitment to environmental governance and, as a result, affects the effectiveness of environmental policy implementation. Therefore, a reduction in economic policy uncertainty can reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Regarding the effect of oil on the economic conditions of oil-exporting countries such as Iran, there are two points of view: in the first point of view, the positive effects of oil on improving people's quality of life are emphasized. The second point of view points to the negative effects of the development of energy resources on the environment in resource-rich countries. According to this point of view, extraction, production and consumption of oil resources causes waste of resources and destruction of the environment of the regions.Considering that environmental pollution is one of the most challenging topics discussed in the world, the main goal of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon emissions in Iran.

    Methodology

    The model to investigate the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon emissions is defined as follows: where, CO2: carbon dioxide emissions, EPU: economic policy uncertainty, OP: oil price, GDP: gross domestic product and EC: energy consumption. In the process of estimating the model, the data related to economic policy uncertainty follow the study of Ashena and Shahpari (2022) from World Uncertainty Index (WUI), data on energy consumption are extracted from Ministry of Energy website and energy balance sheet, while other data are extracted from World Bank, International Monetary Fund and OPEC website during 1981-2018. In addition, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is used to estimate the above model.

    Results and Discussion

    First, the stationarity of the variables was checked using the Phillips–Perron test. The results of the unit root test show that all the variables are I(1). In the following, the existence of long-term relationship between the variables was investigated using the Bounds test. The results indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables in the model. After ensuring the validity of the model, Wald's test was used to test short-term and long-term asymmetry. The results indicated the asymmetric effect of economic policy uncertainty and the symmetric effect of oil price in the short and long term on carbon emissions. With the identification of the long-term relationship and the confirmation of asymmetry in the economic policy uncertainty variable, the study model was estimated using the NARDL model and diagnostic tests were carried out. The model estimation results showed the asymmetric effect of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions; So that the effect of positive changes in economic policy uncertainty variable in the short and long term on carbon emissions was positive and significant, while there was no significant relationship between the negative shock of economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions in the short and long term. Also, the results show that the effect of oil price on carbon emissions was symmetric; So that the effect of oil price on carbon emissions in the short and long term was positive and significant. Finally, to ensure the stability of the model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were performed. The results indicated that the estimated model is stable.

    Conclusion

    In Iran's economy, the government should spend the increased oil revenues resulting from the increase in oil prices to create infrastructures that will reduce air pollution, or in other words, invest the income from the increase in oil prices in technologies that they emit less carbon dioxide.Governments in developing countries such as Iran, which are transitioning from agriculture to industry, should force industrial producers to use technologies that cause less pollution by enacting environmental laws and standards such as pollution taxes.Iran is a rich country in renewable resources, and due to its geographical location (wind energy in the north and west of Iran, solar energy in the south of Iran), it can move towards the replacement of non-renewable resources with a systematic planning. Therefore, it is recommended to move towards the production and consumption of renewable resources, while preserving energy resources, in order to reduce the amount of carbon emissions.Considering the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on the emission of carbon dioxide in Iran, it is recommended to the government to give up its irregular economic policies in order to reduce the emission of pollution and to adopt its economic policies as a rule. Economic agents should act in a stable and predictable way to prevent economic policy uncertainty.

    Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Emission, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Oil Price, Iran, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)
  • Maedeh Azarbayejani, Mostafa Emadzadeh*, Majeed Sameti Pages 261-281
    Introduction

    According to the models of growth, renewable and non-renewable energy  affect economic growth, but the consumption of renewable energy due to less pollution, contributes to sustainable growth. So, countries strive to create the conditions for the use of renewable energy, such as electricity. By balancing competition in market such as the electricity market, on the micro level surplus of consumer and producer welfare is maximized without government intervention, and the incentive for the private sector to enter the market increases. On the macro level, due to lower prices and increased production, electricity consumption as renewable energy increases and reduces environmental degradation and increases sustainable growth. Over the past decades, in the electricity industry, natural monopoly conditions have been established in the sectors of production, transmission and distribution, and the surplus of consumer and producer welfare has not been maximized, so government intervention was justified. In recent years, due to technological advances and the elimination of natural monopolies, the incentive for the private sector to enter the electricity sector has been strengthened. The purpose of this article is to measure the degree of competition in 9 electricity companies in Iran during the period 2011-2019.

    Methodology

    In order to measure the degree of competition in Iran's electricity industry, two structural approaches, i.e., Entropy coefficient and non-structural Panzar-Rosse were used. The entropy measure is used as an alternative to variance, in fact entropy is the inverse measure of concentration, when entropy increases, concentration decreases:E=i=1nSi.log1Si    ,0≤E≤log⁡(n) (1) Si  is the market share and the value of this index is equal to zero for the monopoly market and increases nonlinearly as the market becomes more competitive.Measurement of degree of competition by Panzar-Ross method, using the GMM method is as fallows:LnTRit=α0+α1LnQit+βLLnWLit+βKLnWKit+βELnWEit    (2)  WLit  is the labor input price, WKit  is the capital input price, WEit  is the energy input price of the power generation company i in the time period t. TRit  is total revenue, Qit  is production of the i-th power generation company at time t. In the dynamic specification, the Panzar-Rosse criterion for evaluating the market structure is defined as follows:PRH=i=13βi1-α1 (3) If i=13βi=1 , the market is competitive and a decrease (increase) in the price of inputs causes the same decrease (increase) in marginal cost and marginal revenue. If 0<i=13βi<1 , the market has monopolistic competition and is between competition and monopoly.

    Results and Discussion

    The calculation of entropy coefficient, which is one of the structural methods in measuring competitiveness, obtained a number equal to 0.215 for the Iranian electricity industry during 2011-2019. Considering that the mentioned number is between zero and one, it shows that the concentration in Iran's electricity industry has decreased during the period under review and this industry has been placed in a state between competitive and monopoly. In other words, the conditions of the electricity industry have moved out of the traditional state and full monopoly, although it still needs to establish arrangements to become more competitive and close to full competition. On the other hand, Panzar-Rosse non-structural method was also estimated and its index was calculated, which obtained a value of 0.253. This amount of Panzar-Rosse non-structural index also confirms the results of the non-structural approach in Iran's electricity industry. Due to the fact that the results of both structural and non-structural approaches in calculating the level of competitiveness in Iran's electricity industry confirm each other, more confidence is created regarding the obtained result.

    Conclusion

    Considering the important and effective role of electricity in other industries of the country, the existence of more competition that leads to a decrease in the price and increase in the production of electricity, from a micro point of view, it has led to an increase in consumer and producer surplus, and from a macro point of view, it has also led to a reduction in environmental pollution. Reducing the exploitation of non-renewable energies and as a result of intergenerational justice and ultimately the realization of sustainable growth and development. Although the results of the calculation of competitiveness indicators indicate that the electricity industry is moving away from the monopoly state and moving towards the competitive state, more efforts should be made in order to increase the degree of competition and achieve complete competition in the country. In this way, the country's economic managers and policy makers should increase the number of power plants in Iran's electricity network while removing the existing legal obstacles on the path of restructuring from monopoly to full competition in the country's electricity industry in order to reduce the level of concentration and monopoly in Iran's electricity market. On the other hand, creating a suitable environment for the correct and healthy competition of electricity companies, improving the productivity of production inputs and using the optimal combination of inputs through research and development, as well as short-term and long-term planning to improve the level of production and improve the cost structure, and encouraging and supporting elites and inventors in line with the development of new electricity production plans and technologies such as solar electricity technology can help to make the structure of the electricity industry more competitive.

    Keywords: Competition, Market Power, Electricity Market, Sustainable Economic Growth