نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 33 (بهار و تابستان 1401)

One of the responsibilities of demographers is to know how fertility, mortality and migration processes interact in determining population size, growth and changes. Iran has experienced extensive demographic changes during the past three decades. These changes led to a fundamental turn in the government's population policies. The non-expert encounter with the population phenomenon caused the discussion about it to be brought to the public sphere. As a result, determining population policy priorities became a pervasive issue in the country. Diagnosing the problem and putting it on the agenda is part of the policy-making process. In this article, focusing on the results of the General Population and Housing Censuses (GPHC) of Hamadan and Lorestan provinces in 2011 and 2016, as well as the statistics of vital events in these provinces during 2011-2016, we showed that the equation of population changes based on census statistics are not in balance with the statistics of vital events and net migration. In this situation, analyzing the determinants of population changes, determining policy priorities, and providing strategies for population management will be difficult and unrealistic. The findings emphasize the importance of assessing the quality of census and vital events statistics before making any decisions and policies for the population.

Teenage marriage is an important and key determinant of high school dropout of girls. This article using quantitative and qualitative data, explores the drivers and reasons for girls drop out of school, with an emphasis on the role of early marriage. In the quantitative section, the secondary analysis of the micro-census data for 2016 and in the qualitative part, in-depth interview and ethnographic approach in Shahnabad region of Lorestan province have been used. The results showed that the prevalence of school dropout among 15-17-year-old girls in rural areas is about three times that of urban areas. A large part of rural-urban differences in girls drop out of school is due to the higher prevalence of teenage marriage in rural areas. Logistic regression analysis showed that married girls are more likely to drop out of school than never-married girls. The results of the qualitative data also showed several factors such as family factors (escape from a disordered family, parents' addiction, parents' lack of attention to girls' education and parents' authority and strictness), economic (poverty and deprivation), social (fear of remaining single, peer influence and gender inequality) and cultural (preserving reputation, escape from social pressures and lack of access to educational centers) are important drivers of teenage marriage and school dropout of rural girls.

Reduction of fertility to ‌below‑replacement level in Iran has led policymakers to provide facilities to increase fertility, but careful assessment of the impacts of childbearing incentives have remained unattended. Using data from the 2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey (IFTS) including 1500 households in Tehran province, this paper simulates the complex low-fertility behavior applying agent-based modeling approach in AnyLogic software environment. Various scenarios such as economic scenarios, providing government facilities, increasing the number of marriages, reducing the average age of marriage as well as a combined scenario were considered. The simulation results showed a declining trend in fertility in Tehran province for the next ten years based on which total fertility rate in Tehran will decline from 1.4 in 2019 to 1.06 in 2029. However, a 20-percent increase in the number of marriages for women leads to fertility increase from 1.06 in the base year to 1.26 in 2029. Using a combined scenario, it was shown that reduction in the average age of marriage along with improvement of childbearing conditions increase the total fertility rate to 1.6 in 2029. The policy implication of this study indicates that pronatalist programs should be developed considering the impact of incentives on couples’ reproductive behavious in order to facilitate achieving the goals of population policies while realizing their ideal and intended fertility.

This paper deals with the process of delivery and childbirth in traditional communities prior the entrance of modern health and medicine. It tries to investigate the role of attendants in this process too. In an ethnographic study we refer to still alive traditional attendants as well as other elderly women to provide a clear picture of traditional delivery process and attendant role. For collecting data, 46 in-depth interviews have been conducted, then manuscripts were classified according to pre-delivery, delivery and post-delivery stages. Traditional deliveries took place in domestic context with least medical equipment and banal tools. Attendants provided the pregnant women with some behavioral, nutritional and sometimes curing advices. At the time of difficult deliveries, they employed purely local, experience-based techniques as well as spiritual ways. Different domestic, biological and cultural factors could have been caused infant/fetus or maternal death. The finding narrates some traditionally unknown causes of deaths of mothers or fetus. At the post-delivery stage, the attendant’s cares had substantial impact on mother and child health. All the attendant’s conducts and the deilivery and childberiang process were culturally mediated.

In life insurance pricing problem, the probability of mortality is one of uncertainty factors that is calculated using the life table. The Iranian life table has been issued by the regulatory framework to insurance companies to be implemented since the beginning of 2021. Prior to this table, the French life table was used to calculate premiums. Due to the long-term nature of life insurance contracts, the effect of using Iranian life table on the premium of these products is very important. The research findings indicate that insurance premium calculated based on the French table for term and whole life insurance and endowment insurancelife annuity are  the Iranian table. Also, the effect of changes in age and changes in the term of the contract of life insurance products on the premium has been analyzed. Furthermore, the Adjustment multipliers of mortality probability for the insured with a specific health condition were calculated and the adjusted premiums compared to the standard condition were obtained for the tables of Iran and France. The difference between the adjusted premiums based on the tables of Iran and France are still evident.

Models developed to project mortality are primarily based on extrapolative methods and to some extent researchers’ subjective judgement. These models face the same challenge of detecting the inherent uncertainty in forecasting. This paper introduces Bayesian inference methods for mortality projections in response to such a problem and its methodological importance. As a developed country with an accurate registration system, the French mortality data was used to estimate and predict mortality rates from 1959 to 1999. Bayesian inference was used to estimate each parameter's posterior and prior distributions, and the Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithm was exploited to estimate the parameters. The findings of the research indicate that in Bayesian models, by examining the entire space of a parameter through probability distributions, a better estimate of a parameter values is obtained. A Bayesian model also has a wider confidence interval than the Lee-Carter model, covering a more significant part of errors and uncertainty in most age groups.

Increasing female labor force participation (FLFP) can improve the socioeconomic situation of nations and lead to sustainable development of societies. Therefore, the variable of female participation in the labor market and its determinants is one of the basic issues that have been frequently addressed in economic studies. This study examines the effect of economic growth on the participation of females in the labor market among Asian Muslim countries during 1995 to 2019 using a panel model. The results of the study indicate that if individual effects are not considered in estimating the panel data, as in previous studies, the U-shaped relationship between economic growth and female participation rates is confirmed among the set of countries considered. However if differences between countries are considered, this relationship is rejected. It is highlighted that considering the cross-country differences leads to clarification of unique dominated institutions in countries on FLFP as well as correct specification of the effect of economic growth on FLFP.

The present study was conducted with the aim of developing strategies to reduce rural-urban migration in the Khuzestan province. In this research, firstly the analytical studies and literature were used to examine the four points of SWOT, namely strength, weakness, opportunity and threat, and then to prioritize them using the AHP technique. The statistical population of the study were informed persons and experts in relevant organizations in the Khuzestan province. The sample contained 48 experts who were selected using the purposive sampling method. In order to process the information from the matrix, the SWOT-AHP technique from the Expert Choice software was performed. The findings showed that in evaluating the criteria, threat points, weaknesses, opportunities and strengths ranked first to last, which indicates the dominance of the risky over the useful space. In addition, using the TOWS matrix, twelve strategies were designed to reduce rural migration. Based on the results, the two strategies of "development of appropriate technologies to reduce the difficulty of working in agricultural sector and keeping alive the hope to work in agricultural sector" and "correct advertising about the importance and value of youth activities in agricultural sector and employing graduates of agricultural sector to increase the power of creativity and innovation" were identified as the most important strategies in this regard.

The increase in women's inter-provincial migration is one of the most important migration changes in recent decades, which originates from the different development of the provinces. The results of the fuzzy analysis of the 2011 census data showed that most of independent female immigrants who entered Tehran were from more developed provinces. Therefore, this research was conducted with the qualitative method of research narrative with the aim of investigating the processes of independent migration of women who came from the developed province of Yazd to Tehran. The findings of this study indicate the existence of three main process models, which were obtained from the analysis of the narratives of 19 independent immigrant women and the drawing of specific models for each one, and finally placing these extracted process models on a more abstract level. These process models, which are the result of the existence of similar patterns among the narratives of the interviewees, include: 1. The self-made desire model, which includes girls who had the necessary freedom but have a desire to experience an independent life away from family support. 2. The model of desire for socio-economic progress in educational and occupational fields. 3. The model of cultural heterogeneity, which includes girls who did not have the necessary freedom and migrated to escape the pressures of the family, relatives and society to conform to the existing culture. In general, the results showed that non-economic factors had a great impact on the independent migration of the investigated women.

One of the challenges of migrant-receiving and -sending countries is the social relation manner of immigrants in destinations, which can be one of the factors that disrupt regulating social relations, convergence and cohesion among individuals and social groups in these areas. The aim of this study is to explain the sociological consequences of social relations of Iranian immigrants to Germany. The research method was survey and the data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire. The statistical population of the study consisted of Iranian immigrants over 18 years living in the three states of Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia and Hess, with the sample size selected by the multi-stage cluster sampling method being 280 people. The results showed that there was a significant relationship between the variables of length of stay, religious beliefs, generational difference, educational restrictions and group relations of Iranian immigrants to Germany. The results of the regression model showed that the variables of generational difference explained 14%, commitment to religious beliefs explained 22%, educational restrictions explained 19% and length of stay explained 29% of the linear variations in the relations of Iranian immigrants to Germany. However, social trust, acceptance of norms of the destination country and the use of virtual social networks did not have a significant relationship with the social relations of Iranian immigrants, so the mentioned hypotheses were not confirmed in the present study.

One of the most essential resources of any health system is its human capital, and emigration of physicians means the loss of human capital. The aim of the study is to explain the phenomenon of emigration of physicians based on the perspective and experiences of the medical interns of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in 2021. The participants were selected using purposive sampling and the sample size was determined based on the theoretical saturation. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews with a total of 15 medical students who participated in the study. The data from the interviews were transcribed and analyzed using a content analysis method to extract related categories and subcategories. Based on the data analysis, 24 subcategories and 8 main categories including status of medical education, working status of physicians, degradation of social status of physicians, lack of work / life balance, lack of motivation, being influenced by others, socio-economic conditions of the country and comparison of their status with destination countries were identified. Based on the findings of this study, there are several factors involved in the tendency of physicians to emigrate, all of which need to be considered in order to slow down the migration process.

The increasing rate of divorce in Iran has turned this phenomenon into a social issue. This study exammines the assoication between tendency to divorce and alienation among a sample of women in the City of Mashhad. The statistical population of the research is all married women of Mashhad and the sample size is 384 people. Cluster sampling method was used to select the samples. The findings of the path analysis show that the impact of alienation on marital intimacy, family involvement, conflict over decision-making power and tendency to divorce is significant. Also, the effect of spouse's unemployment on marital intimacy, conflict over decision-making power and tendency to divorce is significant. The findings suggest that the alienation variable along with the mediating variables explained 53% of the factors of tendency to divorce. Since the feeling of alienation is rooted in individual and social "lack of integration" and "lack of cohesion", policymaking is necessary to increase and improve the methods leading to proper communication action in the public sphere of society.