فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 49 (زمستان 1401)

With the occurrence of major global financial crises and the strong spread of these crises in the economies of other countries, the importance of identifying and measuring these crises and examining their effects on economic growth and especially the total factor productivity has become more apparent. In this study, in order to quantify financial crises, following the basic portfolio theory approach, a systemic stress index has been designed for the Iranian economy during the period 2008-2019. Therefore, the purpose of this study is not only to identify the financial stress index of the Iranian economy, but also to examine whether financial stress can have irreversible effects on the total factor productivity. In this study, using Bayesian inference in vector autoregression models, the effects of financial stress on The format of two endogenous growth models of the second generation on the total factor productivity and its determinants has been analyzed. The results of the study show that in addition to the effects of financial stress shock on the factor total productivity is negative but also associated with relative durability, the effects of financial stress shocks on the accumulation of domestic R&D costs, investment intensity Physically, financial development and human capital is also negative and associated with relative longevity. The findings of this study support the need to measure and in terms of financial stress index in macro policy decisions.

In recent decades, the risks and environmental damage caused by economic growth, population growth and energy consumption have become more apparent. Meanwhile, one of the new advances in the study of the relationship between economic factors affecting environmental quality is the attention to the spatial nature of environmental phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this study was to model the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth along with other influential factors. CO2 emissions as a criterion for environmental pollution in Iran have been studied using the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM) and in the framework of spatial panel data among the provinces of Iran during the period 2003-2017. The results of this study show that in total, real GDP per capita increases CO2 emissions at the provincial level, because the positive real GDP per capita coefficient is larger than the negative real GDP per capita coefficient of space. Another very important variable is the intensity of energy consumption and its spatial interruption, which has the highest significant and positive coefficients in the model of this paper. Also, the weighted price of provincial energy and its space interruption have had a significant and negative effect on CO2 emissions. Also increasing the degree of urbanization in neighboring provinces has increased CO2 emissions. Finally, the spatial interruption coefficient of the dependent variable is significant and positive, which shows that the increase in CO2 emissions in neighboring provinces has increased CO2 emissions in the same province.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal relationships between entrepreneurship development, economic growth and unemployment by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and to investigate the effects of shocks on these variables in Iran. For this purpose, seasonal time series data from 2006-2016 and Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI) and Central Bank of Iran (CBI) were used. The findings of Granger causality test show that a bilateral causality between economic growth and unemployment and a unidirectional causality from economic growth to entrepreneurship index were confirmed and there was no causality relation between entrepreneurship and unemployment in spite of correlation among them but, a third variable, GDP, is the cause of changes in both variables. According to analysis of impulse-response functions, only the shocks caused by entrepreneurship index are enduring in the model. Also, according to the result of variance decomposition, among three variables, the largest share in entrepreneurship changes is related to the entrepreneurship index itself. Therefore, it can be stated that only entrepreneurship policies can improve the component of entrepreneurship index.

Most of businesses financinig in the country done by the banking network and banking network play a very important role in achieving macroeconomic goals. Accordingly, in the present study, the effect of fluctuations of asset markets (exchange rate, oil price and stock market index) on financial instability index over a period of 1388-1397 monthly is investigated by using the Markov Switching model. The wavelet transform model is used to extract exchange rate fluctuations, oil prices and stock market index. The results show that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations in different regimes and different time periods is different, so that in the short run the exchange rate fluctuations in the high regime of the financial instability index have a different effect than the other periods. Oil price fluctuations have a positive and significant effect in the medium- and long-term periods and in all regimes, and this effect will be stronger in the long run. Also, fluctuations in the stock market have a negative and significant effect only in the short run and under conditions of low regime of financial instability index. These results show that fluctuations have different effects with respect to time period as well as level of financial instability. Therefore, the management of foreign exchange rate and stock markets should take into the account of financial instability level and the timeframe for fluctuations.

The quality of the environment and its protection is one of the important issues in the field of management of countries. Therefore, all countries, along with growth and development policies, try to prevent environmental degradation by enacting laws and regulations in the national sphere and also by creating international agreements. In the meantime, in order to adopt appropriate policies in the field of economic growth and environmental quality, conducting more detailed studies can help policy makers in this regard. The purpose of this study is to investigate the interrelationships of three important variables of economic growth, degree of trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions in the group of developed countries. For this purpose, the annual data of 29 developed countries for the period 2017-2000 from the World Bank website have been used. The econometric approach used in this work is to estimate the relationships of these variables using dynamic panel data using the GMM method. The estimation results show that by increasing the degree of commercial openness and carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth is enhanced. Venice Economic growth also has a positive effect on the volume of foreign trade, but carbon dioxide emissions limit it. On the other hand, economic growth leads to increased carbon dioxide emissions and the growth of foreign trade reduces the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions.

Existence of natural resources can increase corruption through rent-seeking behaviors if there is no strong institutional framework. In the present study, the role of institutional quality in the impact of natural resource rents on the financial development of Iran in the period 1984-2019 has been investigated. For this purpose, first to extract the indicators of institutional quality and financial development from the model of principal component analysis and then from the Markov switching model to investigate the effect of natural resource rents on financial development in the country in two cases with and without considering Institutional quality index has been used. Increasing the rent of natural resources has had a negative and significant impact on financial development in low regime of the financial development. Economic growth and trade openness have also had a positive and significant impact on all levels and regimes of financial development. Increasing the rent of natural resources in terms of improving the institutional quality index has had a positive and significant effect on financial development in a low regime. Increasing the inflation has had a negative and significant effect on financial development in all regimes of financial development. It shows that improving the quality of institutions in the country is not able to eliminate the Dutch disease and the curse of resources completely, and this issue with the non-significant impact of natural resource rents in terms of improving the institutional quality index in the high regime of financial development in the country is visible.

Taxation of pollution is one of the most important policies of the government to reduce pollution to increase the welfare of society. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to calculate the optimal pollution tax rate taking into account environmental considerations using an endogenous growth model in the Iranian economy. The randomness of the production function is one of the most important differences between this model and other similar models performed in this field. After developing the model and solving it by SHBJ method and achieving a relationship determining the optimal rate of income tax, using the parameters of the Iranian economy, the model was calibrated and the optimal amount of pollution tax was calculated. The results of model estimation show that the optimal rate of pollution tax for the Iranian economy is 5.3% of total production. Capital interest rate fluctuations, capital interest rates, production fluctuations, changes in pollution function parameters also affect the optimal rate of pollution tax. The results of the sensitivity analysis for the Iranian economy indicate that with increasing environmental preferences, safe interest rates and fluctuations in the production of the optimal pollution tax rate in the optimal state of social welfare should increase. Pollution tax decreases as capital interest rate fluctuations increase.Keywords: Optimal pollution tax rate, environmental damage, random endogenous growth pattern.