نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 26 (پاییز 1401)

Since 1990, the US Air Force has continuously conducted operations in many crises in the world; On one hand, this process has caused fatigue of the current fleet of Air Force, and on the other hand, the tendency of quality human resources to serve in US Air Force has decreased, and it has prompted the commanders to overcome this problem. Modernization of air fleets with advanced "F-35" and "F-22" planes, replacement of "KC-135" and "KC-10" refuelers with "KC-46" and "B-1" and "B-2" bombers with "B-21" and with the policy of adjusting the talent of manpower, direct most of the funds towards flight projects. This article seeks to discover the challenges facing the American air power in a descriptive-analytical way and survey/field with the help of statistics and information extracted and published officially from reliable sources during 2019-2021 with Emphasis on budget programs allocated to the Air Force, as well as holding expert meetings and distributing questionnaires in an expert community in the field of aviation or a statistical community of 80 people. The results of research analysis show that the influencing factors such as: "high age and costliness of maintenance of the current fleet, projects under development, failure to provide credit on time, prolongation of the production process and ultimately failure to fulfill the plan modernizations", has placed the air force of this country in a high-stress situation and a strategic bottleneck, which, while creating ambiguous and multiple conditions, has greatly reduced the combat power of the American air force.

The productivity of the human capital of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran plays a pivotal role in achieving effective defense-security readiness to carry out the mission on time and to achieve the expected results by using the existing inputs of the defense sector and inputs available in the national and international environment. In this research, modeling and simulation of AJA human capital productivity system has been done and focused on identifying AJA human capital productivity promotion policies. For this purpose, after reviewing the literature, first using the data of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the participation of AJA human capital development policy makers, a dynamic model of AJA human capital productivity is designed and after validating the model, the behavior of key model variables on the horizon Ten-year simulation (1400-1410) was analyzed. According to the behavior of variables and the results of the model sensitivity analysis test, the proposed policies in three strategies: Development of AJA intellectual capital; Development of the infrastructure of the administrative system and Development of motivational system of AJA intellectual capitals were identified and applied separately and in combination on the model and the results were compared and analyzed. According to the findings of the model simulation, the selected hybrid policies include: Allocation of financial resources to the development of human capital AJA; Documenting and recording the experiences of AJA princes and senior officers; Cooperation with national and international knowledge poles; Free flow of information and intelligent processes; Organizational support and improving the quality of life and work; Job enrichment in order to improve perceived identity and Authority and freedom of action of decision makers in order to develop organizational innovation and entrepreneurship are presented as the best policies to improve human capital productivity.

The current research was conducted with the aim of designing a promote for promoting the participation of the four forces of Aja in the future defense policies. This research is applied in terms of purpose, and the data was collected in a mixed (qualitative-quantitative) approach with a sequential exploratory approach with the base and field data method. In the qualitative part, based on the foundation data method, the necessary data were collected and analyzed by conducting 16 semi-structured interviews (including 6 academic experts and 10 commanders) using the snowball sampling method and theoretical saturation index. And in the quantitative part, the data was collected in the field, where 384 commanders, managers and experts of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army were first randomly selected as a sample, and then using Cochran's formula. Then, the data was analyzed with the help of SPSS software and Smart PLS structural equations. The findings of the research showed that the Pattern of promoting the participation of the four forces of Aja in the future defense policies has 106 open codes, 14 core codes and 6 selective codes, which are based on the results of estimating the structural equations, i.e. factor load and t-statistics, causal conditions on the core category. And this category had a significant effect on the strategies and the strategies on the consequences and intervening and background conditions on the strategies.

Organizational culture is the most important software requirement of any AJA transformation strategy, that formed over the years, therefore, its change does not happen overnight and requires research, planning and allocation of appropriate resources. Therefore, the present study has been conducted with the aim of formulating cultural transformation strategies of AJA organization. The approach of this research is a mixed exploratory approach, that is, first, qualitative methods (such as systematic review and content analysis) and then quantitative (survey) method was used to prioritize and score strategic factors. The study population and the statistical population included strategic documents within and outside the organization as well as AJA experts who selected the necessary samples using purposive sampling method. In this study, in order to analyze the data, in addition to qualitative analysis, tools and techniques of strategic studies such as external factors evaluation matrix, internal factors evaluation matrix and SWOT matrix were used. The research findings introduce 15 transformation strategies as priority strategies. The most important of which are: Redesigning the cultural structure of AJA and forming the cultural deputy and cultural councils at all levels of AJA, The formation of cultural cores and righteous circles in the organizational scope of AJA, The quality and diversity of the Islamic education and enlightenment programs of soldiers and Aja's employees, Approval of the AJA Organizational Culture Excellence Award and forming and strengthening the regional headquarters of the software movement, production and development of defense and security sciences and technologies.

This study was conducted with the aim of formulating the strategies of the Ministry of Sports and the Olympic Committee of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the 2024 Olympics. And winning a medal in the 2024 Olympics was determined. The statistical population of the study was 174 managers of the Ministry of Sports and Youth, the National Olympic Committee, sports management specialists, national team coaches, officials of medal-winning federations and medal chances. Sampling was done in full. The results showed that the Ministry of Sports and Youth and the National Olympic Committee in the field of championship sports and winning medals in the Olympics have 9 strengths, 16 weaknesses, 10 opportunities and 10 threats. The matrix of internal factors of the Ministry of Sports and Youth and the National Committee The Olympics in the field of championship sports and winning medals in the Olympics showed that the total score of the matrix is ​​1.723, which indicates the overcoming of weaknesses over strengths. By changing the strategic position from WT to ST, it will facilitate the possibility of Iran achieving the eighth place in the 2024 Olympics.

The purpose of this study was to identify the drivers of recruitment and selection of elites in the first step, and in the next step, its validation in the Armed Forces universities based on a mixed research and descriptive-exploratory method. First, based on the grounded theory method, the model-forming impulses are identified by open-coding, and then, using the axial and selective coding, the model is presented. Also, the model is validated among the study population by structural equation modeling. The statistical population included experts and for validation of the model, included duty elites introduced by the National Elite Foundation to Armed Forces universities in 1399-1400. . The statistical sample of experts up to the theoretical saturation stage is 14 people in a purposeful judgment method and for the model validation stage, 175 people based on the sample size rules in the structural equation method has been selected. Data collection tools included semi-structured interviews for the modeling stage and a questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale for the validation stage. The results of the qualitative part led to the identification of the drivers of maximum elite recruitment and selection in the form of a research model, and in the end, a theory based on 15 theorems was created. The findings of the quantitative section also confirmed the validity of the structural model of the research and the research hypotheses (except for Hypotheses 5, 8, 9, 10, and 14).