نشریه مطالعات و سیاستهای اقتصادی
سال نهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 18، پاییز و زمستان 1401)

Balancing the internal and external sectors of the economy is one of the important issues for adopting policies that promote stability and growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of budget deficit and savings gap on the current account deficit in Iran. In this regard, the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis is reviewed and the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis is evaluated considering the importance and role of private sector savings. To achieve this goal, the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model has been used to evaluate the long-run relationship. To evaluate the short-term dynamics between model variables, the Error Correction Model (ECM) in the period 1978-2018 has been used. The results of our study show that considering the determining role of both budget deficit and savings gap variables with having a completely contradictory behavior in creating external balance in both oil and non-oil economies, the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis is confirmed. The validity of the twin deficit hypothesis is not confirmed in Iran. Finally, the results of this study indicate that the conclusion of the twin deficit hypothesis test in Iran, ignoring the pivotal role of private sector savings and the importance of the savings-investment gap on the current account deficit, is incorrect and invalid.

Economic and financial crises, hazards, natural disasters, and are an integral part of human life today, which affect the achievement of continuous and stable economic growth and development. The occurrence of joint shocks will be met with different reactions in different parts of the world. This is the difference between the resilience of different regions of the world in the face of common shocks. Therefore, filling the existing gaps between the economic resilience of developed countries and developing countries in order to achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth and development has a special place. In the present study, three productivity gaps of total factors of production, institution and abundance of natural resources are identified between the economic resilience of developed countries and developing countries. The present study seeks to investigate the effect of three variables of total factor productivity, institution and frequency of natural resources on economic resilience during the period 2007- 2016 using panel data using generalized torque (GMM) method. The results indicate the positive effect of total factor productivity, institutional quality and the intersection of the natural resources abundance and the institution on economic resilience and the negative effect of resource abundance on economic resilience.

The labor market in Iran is subject to bottlenecks that, if continued, could damage the national economy. High unemployment and low labor force participation are some of these problems. One of the factors affecting the level of employment and labor force participation rate is the corruption index. Therefore, in this study, using the quantitative regression method, the impact of various corruption index on the labor force participation rate and employment in selected member countries of the Islamic Cooperation Organization during the period 2018-2000 has been studied. Based on the results of model estimation, in all quantiles, the effect of corruption on labor force participation rate and employment is negative. Because corruption reduces the level of employment and labor force participation rates in selected countries by negatively affecting economic growth and the business environment and diverting government spending toward unproductive goals. Consumption level and institutional quality also have a positive effect on labor force participation rate and employment level in estimated quantiles. Also in the estimated quantiles, the impact of informal economy on labor force participation rate and employment level is negative. The effect of per capita income on the level of employment and labor force participation rate was both positive and negative.

The market capitalization of companies and stock prices can be significantly affected by various factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, liquidity, and economic value-added. Exchange rates have always been influenced by the supply and the demand behavior of actors in financial markets. On the other hand, Iran’s capital market development can be a way to absorb the liquidity for productive activities to achieve long-term and continuous economic growth. Accordingly, this study has investigated the asymmetric effects of macro variables and economic value added on Iranian stock returns by applying the NARDL approach and by using annual time series data during the period 1992-2019. The results show that the estimation model is nonlinear. The results show that the effects of exchange rate shocks, liquidity, and value-added on stock returns in the short and long term are asymmetric. Thus, one percent increase in positive and negative exchange rate shocks significantly affects stock returns (respectively 2.37 and 0.22 percent). One percent change in positive and negative liquidity shocks has a direct and significant effect on stock returns. Also, the asymmetric effect of economic value added as a national account proxy on direct stock returns is significant.

Examining the dynamics of oil commodity prices at different times is of particular importance, as fluctuations in commodity prices can be a serious problem for policymakers. Monetary policy shocks are among the factors that can affect the price of petroleum products. Therefore, identifying as accurately as possible the factors affecting price changes can be of great help to policymakers. Due to this, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy shocks on price dynamics of selected petroleum products group in Iran using Bayesian Var model in the period of 2008-1 to 2017-4. Selected petroleum products include bitumen, slack wax oil and sulfur. The results showed that in the long run, liquidity, the price of slack wax oil and the price of sulfur had the greatest impact on the price of bitumen, slack wax oil and sulfur, respectively. Interest rates have been studied the least impact on commodities.

In this paper, we estimate the asset pricing model based on random discount factor (SDF) according to traditional and behavioral approach in the Tehran Stock Exchange by extending the consumption-based asset pricing model (CCAPM), and introducing the sentiment into the utility function, by means of the Euler equations and the generalized method of moments (GMM). To achieving the goal, we apply two indexes of sentiment: the market turnover and the volatility premium. The investigation period is 1390-99 and the case study involves 18 stock exchange groups including 63 companies has listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The results demonstrate that the behavioral SDF model is more consistent and efficient with the facts of the Tehran Stock Exchange than the traditional model, and the coefficient of sentiment is significant. The coefficient of risk according to the behavioral model is higher than the traditional model, and in both cases, people have a high time preference rate and are patient.

Assuming that khoums is a financial obligation and has been imposed by God in relation to the Islamic state, its purpose and basis must be commensurate. Items such as unexpected incomes and treasure, which are examples of khoums, are more compatible with the aim of changing behavior and distributing income rather than financing, but tax bases similar to business income and mining for financing and redistribution of income are more consistent. This article follows its discussion based on the following three assumptions:-Khoums is a type of tax, All instances of khoums are subject to a tax base called booty-The title of booty is applicable to all the examples mentioned in the narrations.-This article also deals with the issues of what is meant by booty in the verse of Khoums? What is the purpose of this tax? What is the relationship between the base and the purpose of the khoums tax? And then he concludes that if the meaning of booty in the verse of khoums is profit, net benefit (without cost and hardship) or unexpected benefit, then the goal is more appropriate to this tax base, an allocation and distribution goal than a goal Financing

Today, one of the important issues in macroeconomic planning of countries is investing in research and development (R&D). Considering that the cost of this type of investment is significant, It is important for policymakers to assess the effects of R&D spending on economic growth and its real return. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of R&D expenditures on economic growth for Iran and its selected business partners during the years (2001-2018) using the pooled mean group (PMG) method. The results show that in the long run, R&D expenditures Growth with a coefficient of 0.46 has a positive and significant effect on economic growth of countries. Also, the variables of physical capital stock growth and employed labor force growth have been used in the model and the results indicate that there is a long-term causal relationship between these variables and economic growth. short-term results for Iran indicate that the variables of R&D expenditures growth, physical capital stock growth and employed labor force growth have significant effects on Iran's economic growth in the period under review; Therefore, In order to achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth, it is necessary to increase the credits of the R&D sector in all economic sub-sectors while increasing the quality and quantity of factors of production.

One of the most important criteria in measuring the effect of economic policy is how monetary and fiscal policy interact and the effect of this interaction on economic growth. An important point in studying the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies is the coordination between these policies in order to achieve the goals of economic growth. Accordingly, considering the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in different periods of the Iranian economy using the TVP-VAR method, which can evaluate the effects of economic policy changes on macro variables over time, this article studies the shock effect of monetary and fiscal policies and their impact on the two macroeconomic variables, namely inflation and GDP in the period 1379 to 1398. The results show that the effect of fiscal policy on GDP growth is larger than monetary policy. The analysis of the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies shows two important results. First, the increase in government debt has a greater effect on output growth and increased liquidity than the monetary policy shock due to its more stable and broader effect. Second, monetary policy can lead to more sustained inflation. The most important policy recommendation of this study is that considering the dominant role of fiscal policy in the Iranian economy in the period under review, it is necessary for monetary policymakers to pay sufficient attention to the central bank using a regular monetary policy framework to control inflation and the main goal that is controlling inflation and maintaining stable economic growth.

High oil price fluctuations expose exporting countries to many challenges. One of these challenges is the decline in GDP due to oil prices decrease. Economies that can offset the negative impact of oil price decreases on GDP are so-called resilient. Therefore, to test the resilience of Iran's economy against oil price decreases, this study attempts to test the effect of real oil price on real GDP and real non-oil GDP using seasonal data during the period of 1980:1 to 2018:4 with an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) method. In the long run, the results of this study show that both in the first model and in the second model, increases and decreases in real oil prices directly affect real oil GDP and real non-oil GDP. The distinction is that in the first model, the effect of increases in real oil prices was greater than the effect of decreases on real GDP, but in the second model, the effect of decreases was greater than the effect of increases on real non-oil GDP. Also, considering the negative impact of real oil price decreases on Iran's real GDP and real non-oil GDP, the hypothesis of this study that Iran's economy is not resistant to real oil price decreases is not rejected.

One of the phenomena that is very likely to occur in capitalist systems is economic crises. The variables that explain post-crisis recovery can be divided into two categories; He divided structural and policy variables. Therefore, the question arises as to whether governments can accelerate the exit of countries from economic crises by adopting policies. In order to answer this question, the present study uses data related to 42 crises in 26 countries, including Iran, and analyzes the data using the combined data method. The research findings indicate that, firstly, expansionary fiscal policy has a negative and significant effect on overcoming the crisis. Second, the effect of monetary policy on overcoming the crisis is not linear, but in cases where the crisis is caused by a systematic banking crisis, monetary policy has a negative and significant effect, and in other crises, this variable has a positive and significant effect on the speed of exit from the crisis. Meanwhile, foreign exchange policy has a positive and insignificant effect on the speed of exit from the crisis. In addition, supply-side policies through the variables of legal minimum wage and income tax have a significant negative effect on overcoming economic crises. In this way, policymakers can act by combining supply and demand policies to accelerate the economy's exit from the crisis.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of intangible capital and its components, including research and development capital, training capital and computer software capital, on the intensity of energy in industry sector of Iran. The findings indicate that variables used in the present study are non-stationary but Co-integration, which indicates a long-term relationship between them. Long-term coefficients of estimated research models that are estimated using the DOLS method in panel data show that intangible capital has a negative effect on the energy intensity, and the increase in the components of intangible capital has reduced the intensity of energy in the industrial factories of Iran. Impact coefficients of computer software, education and R & D on the energy intensity are 0.14, -0.3 and -0.08 respectively. In addition, impact of technology variable is -0.35.The findings indicate that with increasing costs of machine repairs to sell, the intensity of energy in the Iranian industry has increased, while the increase in the value added of the industry sector has reduced the energy intensity of this sector.