فصلنامه سیاستهای مالی و اقتصادی
سال دهم شماره 40 (زمستان 1401)

Negative operating balance is a problem faced by the governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran in recent years, with the increase of international sanctions in the field of oil and gas sales, the reduction of Iran's oil revenues and the ever-increasing inflation; the negative operating balance of the government's budget has shown itself more than before. The main goal of this research is to identifying  and providing solutions to compensate for the negative operating balance of the government’s budget. In this exploratory-applied research that was conducted in 1401, by conducting in-depth and semi-structured interviews with 19 experts (managers and experts of the plan and budget organization and faculty members of University of Tehran) who were selected by the snowball sampling and analysis of the interviews with thematic analysis, solutions to reduce the operating balance deficit of government’s budget were provided. these solutions are in the form of legal solutions, which include make efficient laws regarding the control of the sale of natural resources such as oil and gas condensate and make anti-monopoly laws and the process solutions which include shrinking the government, increasing the efficiency of the government, correct and principled taxation, performance-based budgeting, efficient monitoring and supervision of the government's economic activities and export and industries development, (2 main themes, 8 sub-themes and 62 codes) were identified and were analyzed.

Real exchange rate misalignment means that the real exchange rate deviates from its equilibrium level and is the cause of many domestic and global economic problems. This index is considered as an important indicator in foreign competition and in case of adopting an inappropriate exchange rate regime; it may create economic instability and affect economic performance. This issue is important in countries with oil resources due to the special structure of their foreign trade. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term causal relationships between the exchange rate regime and the real exchange rate misalignment in the OPEC countries. Therefore, using panel data during the years 2020-2000 and cointegration approaches, long-term and short-term causal relationships between these variables have been investigated. The results show that in the short run, the causal positive and significant relationship has been obtained from the real exchange rate misalignment to the exchange rate regime; In other words, higher the real exchange rate misalignment, the more the monetary authority intervenes in the market to move the exchange rate towards greater stability and minimize fluctuations. In the long run, the causal relationship between the exchange rate regime and the real exchange rate misalignment is negative and significant. This means that as the exchange rate regime moves towards more stability, the real exchange rate misalignment decreases. In other words, the type of exchange rate regime in the long run can lead to the formation of market expectations and, consequently, increase or decrease imbalances.

Improper distribution of income is one of the factors that weakens economic justice and affects poverty, which is influenced by the state of macroeconomic variables. According to the theoretical literature of the subject, economic sanctions are among the components that affect the economic activity of individuals, households and companies. This research has been written with the aim of investigating the effect of sanctions on the Gini coefficient and the income of the quintiles in Iran. The investigated time period is between the years 1991 and 2019, and the autoregressive interval distribution model (ARDL) was used to analyze the data. The independent variables of the research include real per capita production, real cash subsidy, sanctions index and sanctions index after the JCPOA. The research results show that according to the economic structure of the country in the past years, sanctions have increased the Gini coefficient in the long term. Also, real per capita production and real cash subsidy have been effective in improving the Gini coefficient. The analysis of income quintiles shows that real per capita production is effective in improving their income. The effect of the real cash subsidy was significant and positive only in the first quintile and did not have a significant effect in the other quintiles.

Monetary and credit policies, however, are widely accepted by economists and policymakers as a means of stabilizing the real sector of the economy and achieving sustainable economic growth. However, macroeconomic shocks, in turn, affect the stability of the banking system and real sectors of the economy, including the housing market. Therefore, the study of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the stability of the banking system and the housing market, requires evaluation and analysis of these channels in the mechanism of shock transmission. Therefore, the present article evaluates the impact of macroeconomic shocks in Iran on banking stability and the housing market with the FAVAR approach during the period 1991-1400. The results show that, in terms of the period of impact, the capital market channel and exchange rate with a deviation of limits and the capital market channel with 0.4. Percentage deviation from the mean of the minimum and maximum effect, respectively, and in terms of the duration of the effect, the housing channel and the banking channel act almost similarly.

Considering the Tehran stock exchange’s status after the Covid-19 pandemic; it is essential to assess the role of different assets as a risk hedge and safe haven of the stock market during the pandemic. In this study, the trend of the gold and US dollar was evaluated and compared using EGARCH and quantile regression methods before (2018/6/19-2020/2/19) and after Covid-19 (2020/2/23-2021/10/12). According to the numerical results, although the Gold and US dollar performed very well as a safe haven for the stock market before Covid-19, they are not good safe havens in the Covid-19 pandemic. On the other hand, Gold has a positive relation with the stock market when the stock market collapses in the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, the gold is not an appropriate asset to hedge the risk of the stock market during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the US dollar is better for stock market risk hedging in this period. Our results have revealed that the gold was a hedge for the stock market before Covid-19 pandemic. In this period, Gold had a negative relationship with the stock market in all conditions (except quantile 25% and 50%). Also, the US dollar could hedge the risk of the stock market before the Covid-19 pandemic in bearish, medium and bullish markets.

Banks play an important role in the country's economy, so increasing bank’s financial stability through the management of financial risks, including credit risk, is one of the most important factors in maintaining the stability of the economy. The mutual effect of credit risk and banking stability in 14 Iranian and 13 West Asian banks in period of 2012-2018 has been studied in this research using GMM approach. Findings show than both credit risk and bank stability have a mutual negative and statistically meaningful effect on eachother. Results also show that there is no meaningful difference between Iranian and West Asian banks about effect of credit risk on bank stability, but the negative impact of bank stability on Iraninan banks is greater. The results of this study can be used by banking sector policymakers to reduce credit risk and enhance bank stability.