نشریه پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه
سال سوم شماره 4 (پیاپی 12، زمستان 1401)

One of the most important documents that are usually viewed as an upstream document and the guide of the development process is the five-year development plans of the country. The purpose of the present research is to answer the main question of how poverty alleviation, which is one of the goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), has been considered in the policies of such plans. To this end, quantitative content analysis techniques and comparative application of categories were utilized in this study. The basic theory considered for the content analysis of the development plan is based on the approach of income poverty, capability poverty, and social exclusion. The statistical population of the research is the contents of six economic, social, and cultural development plans of the IRI. The hidden and implicit content of the text of the development plan was deduced using the existing theoretical foundations. The results show that among the development plans, the second one has dealt more with the category of poverty and deprivation. The first, fourth, and fifth plans have not paid any attention to income poverty, and the sixth program, considering income poverty, took account of capability poverty and social exclusion. Considering the fluctuating movement of the development plans of the IRI for confronting poverty and deprivation, and the non-fulfillment of its goals, it is suggested that a document be drafted to reform institutions such as formal rules and governance. Also, future development plans should be written and implemented in line with the realization of the document. Institutional reforms will provide the necessary ground for inclusive growth, which will result in the removal of functional poverty and social exclusion in the country, and the improvement of people's income.

This study attempts to investigate how the change in the economic growth rate results in the change in people’s asset portfolios with various degrees of risk-taking behavior. For this purpose, price information of seven classes of assets, such as land, housing, stocks, bank deposits, currency, bonds, and gold, was extracted from the Central Bank website and Statistics Center for the period 1991-2021. To review how to form the optimal portfolio for people with various degrees of risk-taking behavior, the optimal mix for the whole cycle was extracted using the mean-variance model (Markowitz model) and by Matlab software after calculating the return, expected return, asset risk, and correlation coefficients between their returns. To select the asset mix, investment goals, and personality traits of a person such as risk-taking behavior, it is necessary to consider the boom and bust cycles for different assets and their relationship with one another. The economic growth rate in two cycles (high and low economic growth rates) and people in three levels of risk-taking (low, medium, and high) were classified to review the change in the asset mix as a result of the change in economic growth, and the asset mix was calculated in the abovementioned cycles. The results from model estimation and statistical analysis indicate that land, bank deposits, and currency do not have a share in the optimal portfolio during the whole cycle. For people with low, medium, and high levels of risk-taking behavior, bonds, housing, and stocks had the largest volume in the optimal asset portfolio with 69%, 35%, and 68%, respectively. Also, the statistical analysis for various cycles of growth represented that the highest coefficient of importance for people with the low, medium, and high level of risk-taking behavior was for bonds with 65%, and 62% and housing with 64% for the cycle with high economic growth rate. As for the cycle of low economic growth rate, people with low, medium, and high levels of risk-taking behavior have bonds at 76%, and 34% and stocks at 65% as the largest share in the asset portfolio. Comparing the asset mix and their weight represents the lack of assets' stickiness and their importance coefficient in the optimal portfolio in various cycles of economic growth. Asset portfolio risk for people with various degrees of risk-taking behavior is lower in the cycle of high economic growth.

The concept of development can be studied from various points of view: from economic, social, cultural, and political standpoints to human, environmental, and sustainable perspectives. This study attempts to identify the pattern, indices, and variables of the economic and social development of Iran. The right to development emerges as the central concept of the constructive relationship between society and governance, so public awareness and participation in choosing a model, followed by legal guarantees and legal requirements for the realization of development in social life, are to be claimed and realized. Development is a right that is integral to fundamental human rights in the same spirit as freedom, justice, and equality. Using the meta-synthesis method, 44 patterns were obtained from 78 selected relevant articles published in the last five years. After stating the types of proposed models, the conservative social welfare model of Iran's social-economic development programs was explained and its relationship with macro policies was identified. The findings show that there is no sincere resolution to achieve sustainable and forward-looking goals, and management and planning compatible with the social and efficient structure have no place. As a result, development-oriented actions have been static, reactive, and inconstant which have led to a certain type of endogenous systemic conflict in the social structure.

The purpose of this applied research is to present a model for determining the strategies and methods of developing Iran's transit and customs cooperation with other countries. Based on the purpose and nature of this research, a mixed research method was conducted by interviewing research experts; accordingly, the qualitative aspect of the research is based on a grounded theory approach. The statistical population and its data collection method in qualitative and quantitative sections include semi-structured interviews for 12 experts and closed questionnaires for 127 experts and customs managers respectively. Cronbach's alpha was used to test the reliability of the quantitative part of the questionnaire. The data analysis method included a t-test and structural equations, which were analyzed by SPSS and Smart PLS software. According to the findings, the t-statistics calculated is at the level of 0.001. The main categories of the strategic model of transportation, customs, and transit cooperation with other countries include internal organizational factors, knowledge and technology features, international standards, communication, management, gaining experience and training, innovation, strategies, and legislation and policy.

Increased spending has been one of the main concerns of the financial policies for various countries in the last two decades. Specifically, in those countries where the debt is at relatively high levels, examining the financial sustainability becomes more crucial; since high levels of debt limit the government's choices in issuing debt, imposing taxes, and printing money to correct the deficit. Therefore, one of the criteria for evaluating financial policies is the sustainability of financial policy. This study attempts to estimate the coefficient of influence of the variables affecting the financial balance of the Iranian government in stable and unstable financial regimes for the period 1971-2019. To this end, the financial balance was considered as a dependent variable in the regimes, and the estimated coefficient of the first interval of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable was chosen as the determining factor. Five states of the research model were estimated by considering different explanatory variables and the best fit was selected.  The results showed that both stable and unstable regimes have a high probability of permanence, and the absolute value of the first lag coefficient of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable is significantly higher in the instable regime than in the stable regime. Thus, the greater reduction effect of the ratio of debt to GDP of the previous period on the financial balance of the government in the unstable regime compared to its increasing effect in the stable regime; also, during the period of time, the stable financial regime can be the dominant financial regime and it can be said that the NPG condition (No Ponzi game condition) is valid in this era.In this study, the estimation of the financial balance of the government of Iran in sustainable and unsustainable financial regimes in the period of 1971 to 2019 has been done in the form of Markov-switching model. For this purpose, the financial balance was estimated as a dependent variable in the regimes, and the estimated coefficient of the first lag of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable was chosen as the determining factor of the regime. 5 states of the model were estimated by considering different explanatory variables and the best fit (estimate) was selected. The obtained results showed that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes have a high probability of permanence and the absolute value of the coefficient of the first lag of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable in the significant mode is higher in the unsustainable regime than in the sustainable regime,

One of the most problematic issues in policymaking is the impact of government spending on its outcome. This paper collects extensive and unique data on government outlays and outcomes for various affairs for the period 1989-2019. Then this unique dataset is put to use to study the relationship between spending and outcome in panel data analyses. The fixed effect regression reveals that a one percent increase in spending on a chapter improves associated outcomes by 0,06 percent, however, the impact of two years lag is significant and about double the spontaneous effects. Nevertheless, the dynamic panel regression, by both Arrellano-Bond and Blundell-Bond approaches, shows that the lag in outcome is large, and it explains a large portion of dynamics. Moreover, the spontaneous impact of spending on the outcome is 0.01-0,03 percent. Therefore, to improve the outcome of spending, the government must plan for long-term expenditure instead of discretionary outlays.