فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیست و سوم شماره 1 (بهار 1402)

Aim and Introduction :

The poverty is not affected only by income level. Some variables such as lack of access to welfare and health facilities, deprivation of education, physical weakness and vulnerability to diseases can be influential factors in poverty. Accordingly, indexes such as the poverty line, the percentage of poor people, and the intensity of poverty, which are used to study of the poverty in the society, do not fully represent the situation of poverty dimensions. Therefore, for measuring poverty in different dimensions, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative in collaboration with United Nations Development Programme introduced the Multidimensional Poverty Index in 2010. This index includes deprivations such as low levels of health, lack of education, inadequate living standards, disability, low quality work, threats of violence, and living in areas with hazardous environments that poor people face in their daily lives. Several researches have been conducted on multidimensional poverty at the national and international levels, which have estimated the multidimensional poverty index using the Alkire-Foster methodological framework. At the same time, the multidimensional poverty of children has been neglected at the national level. This paper aims to study of multidimensional poverty among Iranian children based on the Alkire-Foster methodological framework. The multidimensional poverty of under five children using Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey data in four dimensions of "living standards", "health", "support" and "development" has been measured.

The Alkire-Foster methodology has been used for measuring the multidimensional poverty index. For measuring the children multidimensional poverty index (MPI) in Iran, data of the Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey has been used. This survey covers the latest available data on various sociodemographic and health subjects of children, women and men. A comprehensive and new framework for measuring child poverty in Iran has been provided using the indicators of child mortality, cooking fuel, drinking water, sanitation discharge and housing from the global framework. The other indicators such as vaccination index and insufficient care has been extracted from other researches.

The results show that MPI of children in Iran is equal to 0.002. The incidence of multidimensional poverty is 0.5% and the intensity of child poverty is 38.6%. In general, the results show that girls compared to boys experience more multidimensional poverty and as mothers' education levels increase, children experience less multidimensional poverty. Children who live in large households (5 people or more) experience more multidimensional poverty compared to children who live in small households. Children in developed provinces experience multidimensional poverty less than other children and finally, children under five in the first economic quintile (the lowest economic level of the society) have the highest multidimensional poverty among all households in Iran.Among children under five whose mothers have primary education, "health" dimension plays the most important role in measuring the multidimensional poverty index. In less developed provinces, the most important factor in mesearunig multidimensional poverty among children under five is "child development" dimension. Also, in households that have a low level of economic and social status (based on economic quintile variable), “child development " and "living standards” are important respectively.

The purpose of presenting the Child multidimensional poverty index is to provide understandable and important statistics for clarify level and form of multidimensional poverty. The findings of this study, which was conducted for the first time in Iran, show that although value of the child multidimensional poverty index based on "living standards”, "health", "support" and "child development" is not a large number, however children in social and demographic groups have had encounters with different levels of multidimensional poverty. Considering that the growth and development of the children in the appropriate context is the basis for formation of a healthy and stable family and developed society, it is necessary to make policies in order to reduce the multidimensional poverty of children.

The choice between interest rate and money supply as the objective of monetary policy has always been a question in economic literature. Based on the results of many economic studies, the interest rate is a more appropriate target. Due to the instability of the demand for money, since the mid-1980s, the money supply has lost its generality, and instead, the use of interest rates has been used. In Iran's economy, due to the prohibition of using bonds because of their usurious nature and determining the interest rates of bank deposits in a mandatory manner, it has not been possible to use the interest rate as the goal of monetary policy in recent years. In most of the researches, the monetary base growth rate is used as the target of the central bank's monetary policy.This research tries to use dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach in Iran, to examine the effects of implementing monetary policy through the regulated interbank interest rate and transaction of government debt securities and to compare its effects on the macroeconomic variables with the effects of common monetary policy of the central bank (setting the growth rate of the monetary base through changing the rate legal reserve).

In this research, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of an open economy has been designed to analyze the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the macro variables of the Iranian economy. This model analyzes the characteristics of the Iranian economy such as the dependency on oil revenues, the persistent budget deficit and the misalignment of central bank's balance sheet. Also, based on the new Keynesian school, price stickiness has been considered in the model by Calvo's method (1983) for domestic, import and export intermediary companies.

According to the graphs of impulse-response functions, as a result of the positive impulse of the interbank interest rate, the demand of banks for borrowing and the monetary base are reduced. The bank resources are limited, and the facilities granted to the companies are reduced. Due to the stability of the company's demand, as a result of the additional demand for facilities, the interest rate of the facilities will increase.By reducing the facilities granted to companies, the company must hire fewer factors based on optimization due to the higher cost of financing. The demand and wages of household labor will decrease. Due to the decrease in the demand for labor and capital by the company, the non-oil production also decreases. As a result, the inflation rate increases with the decrease in supply. On the other hand, with an increase in the real interest rate based on Euler's relationship and a decrease in household income due to a decrease in wages and employment of labor by companies, consumer spending decreases. Therefore, in response to the decrease in the demand of the whole economy, the price level gradually decreases and the economy returns to equilibrium. Due to the fact that in the model, imports are limited to consumer goods, with the reduction of household consumption expenses, imports also decrease.According to the graphs of the impulse response function, with the increase in the growth rate of the monetary base, the resources available to banks increase, and bank facilities get available to companies in order to cover expenses. The facilities granted to the companies will increase, and due to the constant demand of the company, the cost of financing will decrease by reducing the interest rate of the facilities. As a result of optimization, by reducing the final cost of hiring agents, the company should employ more agents. So, the demand for household labor will increase. By hiring more factors by the company, non-oil production in the economy increases after impulse.

The positive impulse of the interest rate of the interbank market (as a contractionary policy of the central bank) has a negative effect on the non-oil production by increasing the cost of financing of companies and reducing the facilities granted. As the supply of the entire economy decreases, the inflation rate also increases after the impulse is applied.  The positive momentum of the growth rate of the monetary base (as the central bank's expansionary policy) is expected to increase the lending of banks, and to reduce the interest rate of the facilities, if bank resources increase.By comparing these impulse response functions under the application of each monetary policy regime, it seems that the effect of the impulse of the monetary base growth rate compared to the impulse of the interbank interest rate on the economy disappears in shorter periods.These results are expected due to the fact that the targeting of interbank interest rates has less effect on the macroeconomic variables in Iran due to the restrictions on the issuance of government debt bonds and the implementation of open market operations by the central bank.

The distribution of income and wealth in Iran is highly dependent on monetary policy. Iran's macroeconomic variables show that the country is experiencing an increase in inflation, liquidity and social inequality. Given that the facility repayment rate plays a role in channeling resources to investments, and given the role of the central bank in determining and regulating this variable in Iran, this study examines the impact of changing the facility repayment rate as a monetary policy tool on macroeconomics variables related to the distribution of income and wealth in society. The contribution of this research is to provide the agent-based model for Iran and to study the effects of different scenarios of decreasing, increasing and constant trend of facility repayment rate on the distribution of income and wealth, and other macroeconomic variables.

Two types of approaches can be used to model this problem: (1) simulation with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach and (2) simulation with the Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) approach. DSGE models seek to find the optimal point, in which pricing is done through aggregating supply and demand by the Walrasian auctioneer, and none of the factors can decide on their variables. While in ACE simulations, changing process of variables and factors is examined and each factor has the ability to decide about its variables based on its observation of the system. The ACE approach has been used because of the proximity of the simulation to reality and the ability to examine the process. In this simulation, the effect of changing the facility repayment rate on the distribution of income and wealth and other macroeconomic variables is examined in three scenarios: decreasing, increasing and fixed facility repayment rate. Agents that are considered in the proposed simulation are: (1) The Central bank as policy-maker agent that decides about facility repayment rate and money supply volume, (2) The bank is responsible for allocating credit to firms and depositing from households and distributing income from banking activities among depositors. It is also the responsibility of the bank to sell consumer goods and capital of bankrupt companies that have not been able to repay their facilities, (3) Firms are responsible for the production of consumer goods and capital and its sale in the market, and (4) A household that provides its labor force to firms in exchange for wages and provides consumer goods for its livelihood in the consumer goods market. In this simulation, policy-making is done by the central bank and the existence of the government, and fiscal policies are ignored and only the mentioned monetary policy (facility repayment rate) is investigated.In this research, the market is defined in a way that each agent on the demand side observes a random list in terms of number of factors on the supply side and buys from the supplier agent that offers the lowest price. Model have 4 markets as follows:(1) the labor market, (2) consumer goods market, (3) capital goods market, and (4) credit market. The characteristic of this type of market is that the market mechanism is a random adaptation mechanism, and all agents on the demand side have incomplete information from suppliers and vice versa. None of agents see all the market prices and decide to buy only on the basis of incomplete observations of the system. Also, on the supplier side, the firm does not see the cumulative need of the market. It means that the firm estimates the amount of production for this period based solely on its own personal experience in the previous periods, and according to that estimate, it employs labor and produces goods and services. And firms set prices based on their experience on previous periods. This kind of market attitude in simulation has caused the simulated market to be closer to the real world.

The result of this simulation shows that the repayment rate of incremental scenario caused the collapse of the simulation system and also the Gini coefficient increased, which indicates the disparity in the distribution of income and wealth in society. The fixed scenario does not show an effect on improving the Gini coefficient and on the other hand causes the bankruptcy of many firms in the long run. The best result is the reducing scenario. In this scenario, the system achieved sustainable economic growth, controlled liquidity, and a reduction in the Gini coefficient.

In the absence of speculative markets, all the money generated in the banking system is directed to the production and development of economic activities. In addition, decreasing repayment rate of facilities can improve the distribution of income and wealth in society.

In recent decades, governments have taken an important step towards an information society, better service delivery, and improving the welfare of their society by developing e-government. The development of communication technology and e-government is considered an effective factor in economic growth and development and high labor productivity. The aim of this research is to investigate the role of e-government development on labor productivity in developing countries including Iran using the vector autoregression approach with panel data (P-VAR) over the period 2003-2020.

Sims(1986) first used a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze the dynamic relationships among multiple variables The model assumes that all variables are endogenous. This model uses the lags of all endogenous variables to test the dynamic relationships among all variables. Holtz-Eakin et al.(1998) extended the vector autoregressive model to make a perfect combination of panel data and time series models, making it a powerful analytical tool for macro-dynamics research. To examine renewable energy consumption, population aging, and agricultural green total factor productivity in the same framework, this paper constructs a PVAR model based on the traditional vector autoregressive model. A Panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR) includes the analysis of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition– FEVD and the analysis of the Orthogonal Impulse Response Function – OIRF. Parameter estimation in the PVAR model is performed using the Generalized Method of Moments. For the stability of the regression equations, a polynomial matrix is used and a partial unit root test is performed for all variables based on the augmented Dickey-Fuller test.

The results of the study show that due to a positive shock in the development of e-government, labor productivity reacts strongly and positively, which indicates that the development of e-government, in the long run, can lead to increased labor productivity in developing countries. The results also show that in developing countries, the impact of health shock is greater than the impact of other variables such as physical capital formation shock and education variables.

Today, the importance and impact of the development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the internet of things, and big data in different sectors are so great that this period is referred to as the age of communication. Entering this era and the development of electronic tools has changed the needs of people and societies. The aim of this research was to investigate the role of e-government development on labor productivity in developing countries. The results of the modeling show that the variables of health, physical capital, education, and e-government development are the main factors affecting labor productivity, respectively.Also, the results of the research show that the response of labor productivity to the shocks of labor productivity itself was positive in the long term. This effect gradually decreases. Specifically, when a positive shock occurs in labor productivity, this situation is considered a signal for the labor force to continuously seek to improve its productivity. According to findings, the reaction of labor productivity to the positive shocks caused by the development of e-government has also been positive, which indicates that the development of e-government has a long-term effect on labor productivity and can lead to an increase in labor productivity in the long run.According to findings,  in developing countries at the end of the 10th period, about ten percent of labor productivity changes are explained by e-government development shocksLabor productivity. As expected, the impact of the health shock on labor productivity is positive. Quantitatively, the effect of this shock is greater than the shock caused by education and physical capital, which shows the significant impact of health on labor productivity in developing countries. The reaction of labor productivity to the shocks of education is consistent with theoretical expectations. Also, according to expectations, physical capital has a significant effect on labor productivity in developing countries.In general, it can be seen that in developing countries, any positive change in the development of e-government has an impact on labor productivity (based on the decomposition of impulse-response functions and the analysis of the variance of the forecast error). Also, the response of labor productivity to the changes in the field of health has been greater. Therefore, the authorities of developing countries should improve the productivity of the workforce, pay attention to the development of human capital and physical capital indicators, and implement and develop the e-government as best as possible.

Aim and Introduction :

Unemployment is a major issue in developing countries. The high rate of unemployment means that the country does not use the workforce effectively. Unemployment is the worst economic problem due to its negative impact on the individual and society and the speed of its spread in the world. Therefore, solving the problem of unemployment is one of the most important goals of institutions. Trade liberalization is one of the effective factors in reducing the unemployment rate.Globalization is an inevitable process with different economic, social and political aspects. Meanwhile, trade liberalization is considered as the main symbol of globalization and its most important driving force. Therefore, considering the high unemployment rate in most of the provinces of Iran, with the increase in commercial liberalization in line with the economic growth and development, it can be seen in the sectors that have a relative advantage. Increasing national security and political and economic stability provides the necessary infrastructure to attract foreign investors. Therefore, by increasing trade liberalization, it is possible to overcome many economic and political problems in the provinces of Iran, and its effects will spill over to the provinces with the high unemployment rate and will increase economic growth, will increase gross domestic product and finally will reduce the unemployment rate in the provinces of the country.

In spatial econometrics, spatial effects are added to the performance of periodic or complex regression models (panels). Therefore, in spatial econometrics, sample information has a spatial component. When data has a spatial component, two issues can be discussed: (1) Spatial dependence, and (2) Spatial heterogeneity. Before estimating spatial panel models, we need to perform spatial dependence tests and to check the existence of autocorrelation between disturbance terms. The existence of spatial coherence between observations and spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms indicates the need to use spatial panel models. To do this, Moran, Jerry C, and Jetis Ord J tests are used. The Moran test examines the assumption of spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms. In spatial econometric models, to model spatial reactions, it is necessary to select the numerical value of spatial directions. For this purpose, we have two sources of assumptions: (1) Position on the coordinate plane, which is expressed by latitude and longitude, so that the distance of any point in the location, or distance of any observation located at any point relative to fixed or central points or observations can be calculated. (2) The source of spatial information is neighborhood and neighborhood, which expresses the relative location in the space of an observed peripheral unit, compared to other such scales.

In this study, the impact of trade liberalization on the unemployment rate in the provinces of Iran over the period 2006-2019 was investigated with a spatial econometric approach. First, to check the spatial dependence, the spatial dependence of the provinces was confirmed by the Moran and Jerry C test, and based on the significance of the above tests, the research model was estimated in the spatial panel model. According to the results, trade liberalization shows positive effects on reducing the unemployment rate of these provinces, and this result is compatible with the results of other studies including Yanıkkaya (2008), Li et al (Li & et al., 2020), Adou (2021), Amini and Muradzad (2014) and Samimi et al (2014). The variables of gross domestic product and construction credits have positive and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate. However, the inflation rate and the wage rate have negative and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate of the provinces of Iran.

Since according to the research literature, part of the unemployment rate is reduced through various channels such as trade liberalization, attracting foreign investment and export, considering that macroeconomic decisions are made in the center of the country, it is suggested It is possible, taking into account the increase in regional and provincial decision powers, it is possible to achieve favorable economic effects in the direction of improving macro-economic variables, policy and regional planning.The cooperation between the central government and the provincial centers increases the security of the region (country). As a result, high security encourages foreign investment, increases the stability of the economic policy, facilitates the laws and removes obstacles. National security increases the degree of commercial openness, increases production and reduces the unemployment rate.To achieve a balanced and convergent regional development and to resolve the spatial and financial disparities and heterogeneities of the country's provinces, it is suggested that the allocation of budget resources to the less developed provinces should be increased. And the share of allocation of budget resources of different provinces should be converged. As a result, the provinces of the country, especially the less developed provinces should be able to flourish as much as possible from the point of view of economic growth and unemployment rate reduction.The lack of economic infrastructure in rural areas, especially in the industrial sector, increases the rate of emigration and the overflow of labor to urban areas. Therefore, the improvement of economic infrastructure and the increase of trade liberalization policies lead to the improvement of technology and innovation in the less developed regions, and ultimately lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate in the province level.

In the conventional Input-Output model, all final demand components including household consumption, government expenditures, capital accumulation and exports are considered as exogenous variables. The basic limitation of the open Input-Output model is ignorance the relationship between the production sector and the household. In this way, if there is an increase in demand for the products of some industries, such an event will directly lead to an increase in the production level of these industries in the first place. On the other hand, the increase in production in turn leads to an increase in the level of production in related industries through previous connections. The increase in income resulting from higher levels of household economic activities leads to an increase in household consumption and as a result stimulates more activities in the production sector. Based on this, the production sector and the households are related to each other through the income-consumption relationship.In order to estimate the income-consumption relationship, household consumption should be included as an endogenous variable in the Input-Output model, while in the conventional (open) Input-Output model, household consumption is considered as an exogenous variable. To solve this limitation, Miyazawa (1976) presented a new Input-Output model in which he considered household consumption as an endogenous variable. Miyazawa's model is known in the relevant literature as a semi-closed Input-Output model with endogenous consumption. Despite this, Miyazawa's model, similar to Keynes' consumption theory, considers household consumption solely as a function of current income, while according to other theories of consumption behavior, household consumption depends on other factors such as past consumption levels and income. It also depends on the expectation. Accordingly, in this research, the semi-closed Input-Output model with semi-endogenous consumption, introduced by Chen et al (2016), was used because this new model adapts the Input-Output model to other consumption theories and corrects the failure of the previous model. In this framework, household consumption is divided into two endogenous and exogenous parts, so that the endogenous component is influenced by current income and the exogenous component is influenced by other factors affecting consumption. In fact, it is only endogenous consumption that enters the mediation matrix.

In this research, the results of the new semi-closed Input-Output model with semi-endogenous consumption (Chen et al (2016) model) and the semi-closed Input-Output model with completely endogenous consumption (Miyazawa (1976) model) were compared. In this regard, first, endogenous consumption coefficients for 12 product groups were estimated using the Kalman filter model, and then, the estimated endogenous consumption coefficient of each category of goods was compared to the endogenous consumption coefficient of the data sections by means of the interface matrix. The receipt was converted.In order to compare the performance of the two models of Miyazawa (1976) and the model of Chen et al (2016), the effect of government capital formation on the value added of different sectors was evaluated using the two mentioned models.

Failure to consider other factors affecting consumption will lead to upward deviation in GDP estimation. In this way, it can be concluded that the semi-endogenous model solves the insufficiency of the completely endogenous model and its results are closer to reality.

the gross domestic product was obtained based on fully endogenous and semi-endogenous models (9601201) and (9329172), respectively. These findings show that Miyazawa model considers all household consumption as a function of current income, and also due to the lack of consideration of other factors affecting consumption such as expected income, consumption level. Also, in Chen et al.'s model, the calculated added value is smaller compared to Miyazawa's model, because by analyzing and separating exogenous consumption from total consumption, only endogenous consumption entered the table of intermediary exchanges.

Aim and Introduction :

Structural changes affect the share of final demand components in the whole economy. In fact, the importance of these changes is shown in the relative share of each of the economic sectors in terms of production and the factors used in production, If it causes economic growth through the organizational and institutional changes of the sectors.Therefore, structural changes are important and interesting topics in the world's economic research centers, and the results of these studies have important political implications. Since national and provincial credits are implemented in Iran every year in the form of numerous plans and projects, it is important to pay attention to this issue. First, it is necessary to determine the relative advantage of the provinces in order to optimally allocate credits in creating regional balances and to direct the provinces of the country towards regional specialization. Then credits should be allocated in the fields of growth and development and in order to create regional balances.

In this study, due to the lack of up-to-date statistical data in the provincial area, the analysis of structural changes and regional inequalities has been investigated based on three scenarios. In the first scenario, in order to examine structural changes and regional inequalities, the method of basic economic analysis and the measurement of shift share indicators has been used. In the second scenario, structural changes in the interaction between Iran's provinces have been investigated using Heckscher-Ohlin theory. And in the third scenario, economic complexity indicators have been used to compare and analyze the state of relative advantage of the investigated provinces.

The findings of the study are presented under three scenarios. The results of the application of the shift share model in the first scenario show the disproportionate growth of the employees of different sectors of the provinces in the period under review. This issue is shown in negative structural changes. In other words, the combination of activities in the provinces has been unequal. Also, the effects of neighboring provinces on each other due to the dimension of distance and growth spillover have been neglected.In the second scenario, the structural changes in the interaction between the provinces of the country have been investigated using Heckscher Ohlin's theory.And finally, in the third scenario, economic complexity indicators have been used to compare and analyze the relative advantage of the investigated provinces. The factor content of trade in different sectors showed that with the export of goods and services, production factors have been exported and in sectors where advanced technology is needed, intermediate and capital goods have been imported. In the third scenario, The achievability of the production of a product is confirmed by the complexity sub-indices according to the access to production factors for the production and export of goods in a province. Hence, the difference between the provinces in terms of the density index shows that in dense areas, the provinces have exported products with relative advantage. So that the provinces have provided the required capabilities for production and export of various products. Therefore, the maximum capability is available for the development of the user's product group. On the other hand, although the provinces have specialized in several commodity groups, which has caused high density in the province, they have not been able to develop significantly the space around the goods. It is noteworthy that these options are set only based on the analysis of inter-departmental relations and in many cases, various internal and external factors have been ignored. Therefore, it can only draw a view of the communication between departments in the provinces of the country. Among the causes and factors of inequality and differences in the growth pattern of the provinces, we can refer to the macro policies of the country, the inherent characteristics of the regions, the macro strategies of the country regarding industrial location and geographical distribution of activities. Also, the country's trade strategy in the field of developing the exports of some goods can affect the regional growth pattern.

Strategic sectors are not necessarily profitable economic sectors. But they can play the role of leadership and influence other sectors, and can spread the effects of growth and development to other economic sectors. Therefore, it can be said that employment policies should be adopted and applied based on the potential of the provinces. Then, investment should be made in the designated industries in the field of employment in each province. Then, increasing the level of interactions will bring many benefits to the provinces and ultimately to the country. Of course, the development of different provinces may not be compatible with each other in different sectors due to potential regional possibilities. In other words, although attention to macro policies is accepted as a principle in regional policy making. In fact, ignoring the possibilities, potential capacities, and relative advantages of each region and structural changes, leads to underdevelopment and inequality among regions. Hence, it is suggested that; Employment policies should be adopted and applied based on the relative advantage of the provinces at the country level to improve the favorable combination of industries and the lack of concentration of industries and the balanced distribution of employment. If there is a hidden comparative advantage, revealing this feature can be used as a reliable indicator in line with other macro indicators. It is worth noting that not paying attention to comparative advantage in the long run will be detrimental to Iran's growth. As well as considering the country's educated population and service users, it is necessary to put the development of productive services on the agenda of the country's planes.

Aim and Introduction :

In the last decade, the design of the green supply chain network has become very important due to the increase in competition in global markets to achieve success, which requires the simultaneous commitment and cooperation of suppliers, manufacturers and distributors in the form of a network. One of the generalizable fields of the green supply chain network is the aquatic processing industry as one of the most important food industries that has paid less attention to optimize its supply chain in order to provide environmental benefits. In recent decades, the demand for food has increased more than the capacity to provide resources for it. Hence, the traditional food supply chain can no longer effectively manage demand. The increase in world population, globalization, global warming, drought and groundwater crisis in recent years have led to the loss of natural resources needed for animal husbandry and the reduction of marine reserves in Iran as well as in other Middle Eastern countries. The expansion of aquaculture farms has not only contributed to the development of sustainable food in the country, but has also been very effective in preserving endangered species. The aquaculture industry has grown significantly in recent decades. In this industry, green supply chain network design seems to be critical for aquatic processing.

This study is a descriptive research and applied one in terms of purpose. In this research, after examining the theoretical foundations and experimental background, the network design was proposed. The aquatic supply network was designed in three levels, for four farms, three factories, and two customers. The first level includes aquaculture farms. The second level consists of models of aquatic processing factories. The third level includes customer networks. Of course, other levels of the aquaculture supply chain, i.e. retailers, can also be considered in network design. Then the appropriate mathematical model was formulated and validated with a case study. LP-metric method was used to solve this model. The GAMS software was used in this study.

In this research, the network of green aquatic management has been designed to achieve the goals of minimizing costs and carbon dioxide emissions and maximizing the capacity of units at three levels for four farms, three factories, and two customers. In this research, after drawing the network of the problem and explaining the mathematical model, it was solved using the comprehensive criterion method with p equal to 1, 2, and 3.The value of the objective function was calculated with p equal to 0.09. By increasing the value of p, it became clear that there is no distance between the values of the objective functions and the ideal values. Then, the value of decision and binary variables was calculated. The first factory has the highest aquatic receiving capacity from the second, third and fourth farms.

In order to achieve the goals with an emphasis on reducing the carbon footprint, the first factory should process the third product, the second factory should process all three types of products, and the third factory should process the second product. In this research, certainty is considered for the parameters. If the surrounding environment is very dynamic, this turbulence can increase the uncertainty of model parameters. Therefore, it is suggested to solve the research model assuming uncertainty in the parameters in other researches. In this research, the same weight has been considered for three purposes.In this study, it is assumed that the transportation cost between nodes depends only on the distance. It is important to note that the cost of transportation between two points can be affected by various factors. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to these factors in other researches. Using the research model can minimize the total costs in the aquaculture network and maximize the capacity of using the components of the entire chain, bringing the environmental destruction to the lowest level. Therefore, it is suggested to use this model. One of the factors affecting the production and emission of carbon is the number of car trips. In other words, the lower the number of trips (carrying times), the lower the emissions. It is suggested managers to use a means of transportation with a higher capacity. Timely servicing of goods transport vehicles can also be effective in carbon emissions. It is recommended to periodically repair the car. In the chain under study, most of the cars were worn out and without fuel consumption reduction technology. It is suggested to replace the old vehicles carrying goods with modern and high-tech vehicles. It is recommended to use gas-fueled vehicles for transporting goods.

Aim and Introduction :

Credit risk is the possibility of a loss resulting from a borrower's failure to repay a loan or meet contractual obligations. Traditionally, it refers to the risk that a lender may not receive the owed principal and interest, which results in an interruption of cash flows and increased costs for collection. Although it is impossible to know exactly who will default on obligations, properly assessing and managing credit risk can lessen the severity of a loss. Interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation are a lender's or investor's reward for assuming credit risk.When the borrower remains financially healthy and pays the agreed instalments and interest as scheduled, the loan is said to be performing. But there is always the risk that the company or individual will not be able to repay within the agreed timespan. If this happens or looks likely to happen, the bank must classify the loan as “non-performing”. A bank loan is considered non-performing when more than 90 days pass without the borrower paying the agreed instalments or interest. Non-performing loans are also called “bad debt”. To be successful in the long run, banks need to keep the level of bad loans at a minimum so they can still earn a profit from extending new loans to customers. If a bank has too many bad loans on its balance sheet, its profitability will suffer because it will no longer earn enough money from its credit business. In addition, it will need to put money aside as a safety net in case it needs to write off the full amount of the loan at some point in time.

This study with a new approach examines the determinants of credit risk in Iranian banks from 2006 to 2019. Province, banking groups and time are three dimensions used in the modeling of this study as explanatory variables of credit risk. Furthermore, a three-dimensional panel data model is used to measure the coefficients of independent variables. In the case of two-dimensional panels, each observation is typically a vector of values of a dependent variable and one or more independent variables, and comes with two labels attached, one is frequently time and the other an individual person, business or nation. When the panel is multi-dimensional, each observation comes with many labels, for example, time, individual employee, firm, and industry. An observation could consist of values of multiple endogenous variables and multiple exogenous or predetermined variables, labeled with at least time and one other label. All of the problems and issues which arise for two-dimensional panels also exist for multi-dimensional panels.

Findings :

The results of the study indicate that access to provincial credit has a positive effect and the size of the provincial banking sector has a negative impact on the provincial credit risk. In addition, among the variables of the regional economics, the provincial unemployment rate and the provincial real economic growth rate affect positively the provincial credit risk, and the provincial Gini coefficient variable affect negatively the provincial credit risk. The index of road network accessibility as a sensitive variable has a negative influence on the credit risk of the province, which means that in regions where the index of road network accessibility is larger, the cost of access for economic enterprises is reduced, so the profit margin and the ability to repay facilities by the enterprise increases and less default occurs.

The banking system is subject to some risks in attaining its goals; one of the most important of which is encountering non-performing loans and ultimately write-offs. The emergence and accumulation of NPLs can become a systemic problem when this affects a considerable part of the financial system, threatening its stability and/or impairing its core function of facilitating financial intermediation. A significant increase in NPLs throughout the system can have a negative impact on the resilience of the banking sector to shocks, thus increasing systemic risk. NPLs may also be associated with higher funding costs and a lower supply of credit to the real economy. This may result from negative market sentiment towards banks with high levels of NPLs, which decreases banks’ ability to access liquidity and capital markets (potentially leading to credit supply constraints). In order to reduce credit risk, the necessary policies should be adopted to take into account the considerations of the regional economics in payment of facilities.

During crises, the best way to reduce economic vulnerability is to increase the stability of banks. According to Basel Committee's emphasis, the survival rate of any economy is proportional to the stability rate of its banks, and the stability of banks is also proportional to their efficiency rate. But in the current economic conditions of the country, where extensive political and economic risks are threatening the state of financial and monetary systems, examining the situation and predicting future risks, and preparing in advance to face high-risk conditions is the best way to deal with the effects of these threats. Therefore, as the most important step in examining the conditions of monetary institutions, it is very important to identify the factors affecting the development of the monetary sector that can affect the stability of banks. By knowing these indicators, banks can quickly adapt to new conditions, in such a way that they understand and absorb internal and external risks efficiently in the shortest possible time.

By examining the issue of stability of banks among the researchers registered in two scientific databases, “Web of Science and Scopus”, and transferring the keywords of 173 articles found in these two databases from 1991 to 2020 to Vosviewer software, the relationship between the keywords of these researches was checked with stability. According to the possibility or impossibility of collecting the statistics of these cases at the level of the country's banks, finally, 17 possible indicators affecting the stability of Iranian banks were identified. Then, their data were collected at the level of 30 Iranian public and private banks and credit institutions during 2002-2020. On the other hand, all the amounts involved in the indices were converted to the price of the base year of 2002 with the help of the inflation index calculator, available on the Central Bank website. Then, with the help of the econometric method of dynamic panel data, the relationship between these indicators and the stability values of the country's banks was examined and Sargan's post-estimation tests and AR(1) and AR(2) statistics were used to measure the validity and accuracy of the model. To estimate the model, firstly, by performing the unit root test of Im, Pesaran, and Shin, (specific to panel models in Stata software), the mean of each variable was evaluated. Since the degree of integration of all variables was not the same, with the help of the KAO cointegration test for panel data, the possibility of the existence of a relationship between independent and dependent variables was investigated. Then, with the help of the augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic, it was observed that hypothesis H0 was rejected and the association between the proposed independent variables and the dependent variable was stable. To determine stability-related variables, step-by-step invalid variables with a significance level greater than 0.05 were removed from the desired model and the new model was re-run until the final variables were determined.

The results showed that the first hypothesis was rejected, and efficiency was still an important factor in the stability of Iranian banks. Secondly, regarding the second hypothesis, the nature of banks, (whether they are public or private), was not considered an effective factor in their stability. Regarding the third hypothesis, 9 variables were involved with the stability of Iranian banks according to their coefficients. These variables include the ratio of Non-Performing Loan (NPL), the ratio of equity to assets, the ratio of fixed assets to total assets, previous period stability, the ratio of cash to total assets, total assets balance, the ratio of capital to liabilities, loan growth rate and the level of efficiency. Finally, the top efficient and stable Iranian banks were introduced in 2020 and the research findings were explained in the light of theoretical foundations.

According to the effect of assets and their components on the stability of banks, it is suggested that each bank’s optimal amount of assets be defined. Also, the lending rate should be changed by the growth of inflation to maintain the reasonable profit margin of the banks. Due to the importance of investigating the simultaneous effect of profitability and efficiency on the stability of banks in crisis conditions, it is necessary to investigate these cases in future research.