فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیست و سوم شماره 2 (تابستان 1402)

In recent decades, the environment has become one of the most important concerns of societies and governments. Achieving economic growth and development is costly and leads to an increase in the consumption of ecological capital. The efforts of countries to increase per capita income and prosperity, if not accompanied by environmental considerations, will bring irreversible losses, including rapid climate change and environmental destruction. Thus, comprehensive investigation and determination of economic and non-economic effective factors on the environment is of particular importance, to the extent that it has forced governments to adopt short- and long-term policies and programs to protect the environment.The existing economic literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis indicates that at a threshold level of per capita income, countries reach a level of development where environmental improvements are achieved, but these studies have a serious flaw. Because they only focus on GDP per capita as a key variable to achieve environmental improvements and ignore the social dimension which is considered the pillar of sustainable development. Since the human development index includes the simultaneous description of social development and economic development, therefore, in this research, the Human Development Index is used instead of GDP per capita to investigate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and the relationship between HDI and the quality of the environment. Furthermore, political institutions can have a long-term direct impact on the environment and its sustainability. Therefore, investigating whether the indicators of human development, political and civil liberties can affect the quality of the environment, can be important.

In the present study, the effects of human development, political and civil liberties indicators on the environmental performance index (Ecological Footprint) in developing countries and developed countries are investigated using the System Generalized Method of Moments method (GMM-SYS). Then the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is investigated in selected countries. Likely, a country that has benefited from more ecological capital for its needs in the past will be more prone to environmental destruction and use of ecological resources in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the impact of the variable interruption of the ecological footprint on its value in the current year. Accordingly, in this research, the method of the System generalized moments is used, which helps to solve the possible problems of endogeneity caused by the existence of an interval of the ecological footprint variable as an independent variable by using instrumental variables.
The Generalized Moments' estimator is used in cases where the independent variables of the model are not completely exogenous. This estimator controls for the endogeneity problem by using instruments from the intercept of the dependent variable or the intercept of any other endogenous variable that is assumed to be uncorrelated with the fixed effects. The validity of the tools used in the model can be measured using the j-Hansen (1982) and Arellano and Bond AR (2) tests.

The results of the research indicate that the Human Development Index in selected developing and developed countries has a significant and negative effect on the ecological footprint, and a higher human development index is useful for improving the quality of the environment and reduces of pollutant emissions. Therefore, when the level of income, education, and health services in a country improves, the awareness of the importance of a safe and quality environment will increase. Similarly, according to the results of the Kuznets hypothesis, the relationship between the Human Development Index and the ecological footprint in the studied countries, confirms the hypothesis of Kuznets and the inverted U.The index of political development and civil liberties has a negative and significant effect on the ecological footprint in both developing and developed countries. It seems that the increase in civil liberties, higher democracy, and improvement of political rights will reduce the damage to the environment.The results suggest that with the increase in the consumption of fossil fuels, more pollutants are released into the environment, which leads to the destruction of the environment and harming it. Based on the results of the research, it can be said that trade liberalization and active international trade allow the transfer of newer technologies to developing countries that produce fewer pollutants. In addition, increasing urbanization in developing countries has a negative impact on the quality of the environment, but countries that focus more on economic development and scale can improve the quality of the environment by promoting the use of advanced technologies in parallel with urbanization.

The findings of the research indicate that policymakers are more likely to achieve sustainable economic development by improving the level of the human development index. Therefore, providing education and a health care system for all members of society can lead to the reduction of environmental degradation through the improvement of the human development index; Thus, increasing democracy, clarifying laws and regulations, freedom of assembly, freedom of the media and awareness can control corruption and prevent the personal use of natural and environmental resources by officials and powerful people.Policies such as pollution tax, green tax, development of energy-saving vehicles, and replacing them with worn-out vehicles can reduce energy consumption and reduce the emission of pollutants in the environment. Furthermore, increasing the degree of trade openness allows the entry of advanced and improved technologies that produce less pollution. Therefore, policymakers in developing countries are advised to import clean and renewable energy technologies to their country by increasing active international trade.

Aim and Introduction :

Nowadays, the environmental impacts of human activities are considered one of the limitations of economic growth. Developing countries are facing the problem of environmental degradation, which hinders economic growth and development. On the other hand, the process of economic development of countries has become one of the environmental challenges and one of the most critical concerns of policymakers over the years. Due to the significant role of the government in the economy of the countries, government economic enterprises are also sources of pollution along with the private sector. The main reason is the unprecedented concentration of greenhouse gases, which leads to the intense and continuous production of carbon dioxide gas. In addition to being a dangerous factor for human health, air pollution also has an economic burden on societies, which causes a decrease in the quality of life and the welfare of society. Thus, developing countries, including Iran, are facing the problem of environmental degradation. Privatization can be a helpful policy and a government tool to influence economic productivity and social welfare through ecological pollution control. Most domestic research on privatisation's impact on environmental pollution has been interview-based and qualitative. For this reason, this research aims to investigate the impact of privatization on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran using the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP – VAR) model. The model is considered dynamic due to the time factor, and the impact of privatization on environmental pollution in Iran can be accurately observed in different years.

The present study investigates the impact of privatization on environmental pollution in Iran during 1991-2020 using the data of the Privatization Organization, the Central Bank of Iran, the World Bank, the Globalization Index website, and the energy balance sheet of the Ministry of Energy. Furthermore, the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP – VAR) model has been used to study the relationship between variables. In this method, the optimal interval length of the model was determined first. Then, the data durability was checked through the unit root test of Zivot and Andrews (1992), considering the structural break. The next step examined cointegration tests, serial correlation, variance heteroscedasticity, and polynomial inverse root circle tests. In the end, the results of the impulse response function of the TVP – VAR model were presented. For this purpose, the emission rate of carbon dioxide has been used as an index of pollution, and the value of the transfer of shares and assets from the public sector to the private sector has been considered an index of privatization. The TVP – VAR method, unlike the vector autoregression model, allows the calculation of variable coefficients over time. Due to changing conditions, structural break and cyclical changes were observed in time series in macroeconomics. As a result, the TVP – VAR model enabled us to accurately obtain the nature of the economic structure’s temporal changes.

In this research, the mechanisms of the impact of privatization on environmental pollution have been analyzed, and the time series data of 1991-2020 and the TVP-VAR model have been used as experimental work. The present research findings show that despite the incomplete, unscientific, and politicized implementation of privatization in Iran, privatization has reduced the emission of carbon dioxide gas in Iran.

Based on the results, the relationship between the privatization index and environmental pollution is confirmed. It indicates that privatization has a negative and significant effect on the emission of carbon dioxide in Iran. With the increase of privatization, pollution is decreased because when privatization increases, the productivity of labor and capital and the access to new technology for reducing pollutants is also increased. In developing countries like Iran, economic issues are prioritized over environmental considerations, leading to policymaking without considering environmental costs. In contrast, by including environmental calculations in the studies related to economic policies, it is possible to view the environmental damage caused. Based on the results, it is concluded that the economic globalization index, investment, gross domestic product without oil, and human development index have significant and positive effects on production and carbon dioxide emissions. When the size of the government increases, efficiency and productivity decrease. In Iran, one solution can be importing environment-friendly technologies and more investment in this area. According to the results, it can be seen that the increase in privatization can reduce greenhouse gases, and this is due to the rise in the efficiency of private companies in the exploitation and optimal use of natural resources. Thus, policymakers can consider privatization as a part of the solution to fight environmental pollution.3

Aim and Introduction :

The development of financial markets is critical for economic growth. One of the most important financial markets is the capital and stock market, where the prosperity of the stock market and financing through the stock market can develop any country's economy. Capital market development requires the efficient performance of financial intermediaries, including mutual funds. Iran’s economy has always faced the problem of insufficient liquidity and financing for production sectors. As a financial tool, mutual funds can moderate this problem with their existing potential. Therefore, the study aims to investigate the probable effect of mutual funds on economic growth.

In the previous studies that have been done in this field, the descriptive-analytical aspect of the subject has been discussed. But these studies didn't provide an appropriate framework for analyzing the effect of mutual funds on economic growth. For this purpose, in the present study, based on the theoretical literature, a general equilibrium model has been designed, and the output of this model is obtained according to the optimization of different sectors of the economy. Assume a closed economy where mutual funds are investors with information and allocate capital to high-productivity firms. The economy has a single period with two production components, a representative mutual fund, and a representative household.  We assume a high-productivity firm (H) and a low-productivity firm (L) with an equal number of producers. Both firms can obtain funds by issuing new stocks in the primary market. There is one representative mutual fund in the economy that can invest on behalf of the representative household. Therefore, the fund can invest as much as the fund flows (F) received from the household at the beginning of the period. We assume the mutual fund has sufficient access to information and production technology and can detect high-productivity firms. The household seeks to maximize utility, and the proposed utility function consists of only consumption. As utility and consumption are positively related, utility maximization is equivalent to consumption maximization. However, since the present study adopted a single-period economy, consumption equals income. Thus, maximum utility is represented by maximum income.  Initial capital (W) can be directly invested in the primary market or indirectly invested in the secondary market by the mutual fund. This framework is a new aspect and the main contribution of research in this field. The output of the model is estimated using the GMM method for the period 2010:2 to 2020:4.

According to Table 5, most coefficients are statistically significant. The first lag of GDP was expectedly found to have a positive, significant impact on the GDP level and, thus, economic growth. Mutual fund investment was observed to have a positive, significant impact on GDP; a 1% rise in fund investment, on average, leads to a 0.473% increase in GDP. This finding is consistent with our theoretical framework. We expect mutual funds’ investments in the primary market, positively impact GDP since mutual funds have an information advantage over individual investors. Thus, they can optimally allocate resources to high-productivity firms (i.e., mutual funds have a higher ability than individual investors to identify high-productivity firms in light of their information advantage). The household wealth coefficient was estimated to be 0.255, suggesting that a 1% increase in the household’s wealth raises GDP by 0.255% on average. This finding is consistent with economic theories. The interaction of wealth and fund investment was estimated to have a coefficient of 0.257, implying a significant relationship. This coefficient was expectedly found to be positive, consistent with modeling. The interaction of fund flows and fund investment significantly affects GDP with a coefficient of -0.174. This coefficient was expectedly found to be negative, consistent with modeling. Fund flows were estimated to have no significant impact on GDP. Although it was found to have the expected sign, it has an insignificant impact on GDP and thus cannot be interpreted. The coefficient of the secondary market return was found to be significant only at a confidence level of 90%.

Overall, mutual funds have a positive impact on GDP. These funds may improve the performance of Iran’s financial markets if they acquire an appropriate position in the financial market. A large number of individual traders have begun to trade on Iran’s stock market without financial knowledge and suffered massive losses in 2020-2021. If the mutual fund sector is active in Iran, in addition to the optimal allocation of resources, it can also help people for investment in the stock market and prevent crises such as 2020-2021. Eventually, the policy recommendation is that policymakers pay more attention to the development of mutual funds in short- and long-term policies.

Reform of the government's revenue system has been emphasized through the share of tax revenues. The comprehensive reform and strengthening of the country's financial system to meet the needs of the national economy and to create stability have been also emphasized. In this regard, one of the ways to enhance the role of tax revenues in financing the general budget of the government is to expand the tax base, which has other benefits for the economic system, including strengthening the regulatory framework and improving the effectiveness of economic policies. Taxes have important effects on the allocation of resources in the economy. In the economic literature, taxation is a kind of intervention in the market mechanism, which results in allocation inefficiency and welfare losses. This inefficiency is considered as a part of the taxation cost, but tax revenues can increase the welfare of the community. Tax rates and exemptions should be set in a way that maximize the overall well -being of society. In Iran's VAT system, some goods and services, including financial services, are tax -exempt. Tax exemption of financial services disrupts the economy.

In this study, to understand the importance of VAT exemption in macroeconomic fluctuations, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of VAT on financial services within the computable general equilibrium model and the response of economic variables to shocks of the various transitions from exempt to full taxation. Using GTAPagg and RunGTAP software, we assess welfare effects, changes in GDP value, changes in private and public sector household demand, and allocation efficiency effects. We also provide a summary of welfare changes due to policy experience for Iran and the financial and insurance services sectors in the form of tax scenarios .

The results show that the rate of social welfare resulting from the imposition of a tax on financial services at the tax rate of 4% (optimal rate) is the highest and the tax rate is 9% for insurance services at the optimal rate .

One of the important results of this research is the changes in government tax revenue that stem from taxes on financial and insurance services in Iran. It is observed that tax revenues have increased due to both tax regimes and the tax revenues from the financial services are higher than tax revenues from insurance services. This shows that financial services in Iran economic space have more tax capacity than insurance services. Looking at the Iranian economy in recent years, it is considered that the economic variables do not depict acceptable conditions. Despite the inflation rate reaching over 47%, it is expected that the Iranian economy will experience a decrease of more than 7% in GDP while the unemployment rate will also increase. Examination of livelihood variables also shows a decline in the consumption level of Iranian households for basic goods. Additionally, during these years, capital accumulation has significantly decreased, and for some production sectors, there is negative capital accumulation. The mentioned situation of the Iranian economy variables shows that Iran is deviated from its long -term growth path and production capacity in Iran's economy is severely degraded. As a result, Iran's economy will be poorer than before and this poverty will reduce consumption.Considering these economic variables, indicators, and research results, such taxes should be applied with great caution, as based on the current economic realities and welfare of society, it can be said that any new tax base until the relative stabilization of the economy and inflation control would result in reducing the consumption of low -income consumers in favor of the government, leading to more unjustified inflation.

Tourism is a socio-economic phenomenon that begins with an economic decision about using leisure time and savings and has economic aspects such as investment, consumption, employment, export, and government income. Currently, tourism is one of the factors that providing income in the global economy and is becoming an essential factor for the investments and development of countries. The development of this industry is very important in developing countries, such as Iran, which are facing problems such as unemployment, lack of foreign exchange resources, and a single-product economy. Tourism is closely related to foreign direct investment, because tourism development has an urgent need for foreign direct investment in the tourism sector. Internationalization is a phenomenon that links tourism to foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment helps in the financing, technology transfer, infrastructure development, job creation, and economic growth. Along with several benefits that foreign direct investment brings to the host country, it also plays a prominent role in developing the tourism industry. Also, the tourism industry, like many other industries, is disturbed by the fluctuations of the currency market. This disturbance in the tourism market is much more visible than in other industries, because the tourism industry is directly related to exchange rate changes. Considering that the development of the tourism industry is very important for developing countries like Iran, which are facing problems such as high unemployment rate, limited foreign exchange resources, and single product economy, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate on Tourism in Iran.

The research model in this study to investigate the asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on tourism is taken from the study of Munir and Iftikhar (2021) as follows, in addition, since the sanction is one of the influencing factors on Iran's economy in different periods and consequently on is the number of incoming tourists to Iran, so in this study, the sanction variable has been added to the study model as an important variable.Where, TR (number of incoming tourists), FDI (foreign direct investment), ER (real exchange rate), INF (inflation rate), and SAN (sanction index). In the model estimation process, the data of this research was extracted from the sources of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on an annual basis during the period of 1981-2019, the data related to the sanctions index was taken from the study of Iranmanesh et al. (1400). In this study, the sanctions index was obtained through interviews with 15 experts in the economy of sanctions in the form of fuzzy questionnaires and fuzzy logic method. In addition, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (NARDL) is also used to estimate the above model.

In this study, before performing the cointegration test, the degree of integration of the variables was determined by using two unit root tests of Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews. The results of the unit root test showed that in the Dickey-Fuller test, all model variables, except the inflation rate, are integrated into the first order. Also, in the Zivot-Andrews test, the variables of foreign direct investment and the inflation rate are integrated in zero order, and the rest are integrated in one order. After performing the unit root test, the bounds cointegration test was performed to check the existence of long-term relationships between the variables, the results of this test showed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. After ensuring the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, Wald's test was used to perform the short-term and long-term asymmetry tests. The results of this test showed that the effect of the foreign direct investment variable on the tourism variable is asymmetric in the short and long term. By identifying the existence of a long-term relationship and confirming the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment on tourism in the short and long term, the final estimation of the NARDL model was carried out. The estimation results of the model show the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment in the short and long term on tourism. So that in the short and long term, the effect of positive and negative changes in the foreign direct investment variable on tourism has been positive and significant. Also, the results showed that the effect of the exchange rate on tourism in the short and long term is positive and significant. Finally, to ensure the stability of the model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were performed. The results indicate that the estimated model is stable.

According to the results of the model estimation:1-Considering the positive impact of foreign direct investment on the number of incoming tourists to Iran, it is recommended that policymakers try to strengthen relations with other countries in the first step. Also, by adopting the right policies to strengthen the infrastructure, facilitate the issuance of permits and generally provide a suitable platform and a safe environment to encourage investors and foreign countries to invest in the country, provide the ground for the arrival of more tourists from all over the world.2- Considering the positive effect of the exchange rate on the balance of payments of tourism, policymakers and, economic planners are suggested to increase the exchange rate by short shocks. But an increase in the exchange rate can cause domestic inflation, mistrust of domestic money and create rental income for profit-seeking people. Considering the negative effect of the inflation rate on the demand function of international tourism for travel to Iran, policymakers and economic planners should try to control the inflation rate in the country by adopting appropriate monetary and financial policies so that they can reduce its negative effect on the number of tourists.3- The negative effect of sanctions on the number of tourists arriving in Iran indicates the fact that the application of diverse and extensive economic sanctions by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council against Iran has had a significant negative effect on attracting foreign tourists to Iran. It is recommended that in the first step, policymakers and officials take practical measures by conducting effective negotiations to reduce sanctions and at the same time, make decisions so that they can reduce the negative impact of sanctions in the field of attracting foreign tourists.

Aim and Introduction :

In recent years, economists have come to recognize that corruption is not just a deviation or a hurt; it is a systemic feature of many economies, which constitutes a significant impediment to economic growth and development. The present article tries to answer this question: does corruption more depended on gender or institutional factors? Today with the spread of corruption, its negative effects have overshadowed many economic, social and political aspects and have led to reduced efficiency. The international community considers corruption as an economic and social complication and many thinkers in economic, social, political and psychological sciences are studying its causes and consequences. Studies have expanded to such an extent that in the study of (Dollar et al., 2001), women are considered as myth of transparency for reasons such as lower risk averse than men and less meet with corrupt activities because they enter the labor market later than men. In this regard, (Karimi et al., 2018), also concluded that with the increase of women participation in the public sector, corruption will decrease. Therefore, less gender inequality in the economy and politics leads to the less corruption.  But according to a Europol report in 2019, " Crime has no gender." Therefore, this study investigates the issue in a different atmosphere from gender behavior and examines the issue in the framework of institutions. The present article investigates the gender behaviors of human in framework of government performance and religions. Corruption as a social complication has many negative economic effects such as reduced investment, economic growth, etc. (Tanzi, 1998). Therefore, it is rejected by all religions because of religion can influence human behavior and actions. Finally, a substantial body of recent research looks at differences in the behavior of men and women in diverse economic transactions. We contribute to this literature by investigating gender differences. So, this article tries to study the gender behaviors of human.  This study shows that Islam and Christianity have no significant effect on relation between corruption and gender inequality index. But all the results showed that government performance does influence this relation. Also, the robustness test strongly confirmed the results of the study.

The data are drawn from a wide range of sources. There are two major measures of corruption: Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), that is the inverse of transparency, Anti-Money Laundering/Counter-Financing of Terrorism (AML). The CPI was obtained from Transparency International (TI), and it ranges from 0 to 10 where low values indicate high transparency and low corruption. Gender Inequality Index (GII) was used as gender index. Our data set contains 89 countries over 10 years (from 2008 to 2017). This study used the dynamic panel data approach, system generalized method of moments (GMM-SYSTEM) and Panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) to examine the relationship between corruption and gender inequality, where the government performance and religions (Islam and Christianity) can link between corruption and gender inequality. In order to investigate the effect of countries (cross-sections), two groups of Muslim and Christian countries have been used. However, in order to investigate government performance effect on relation between corruption and gender inequality and examine robustness test the results of the study used two groups of instrument variables. The first group is the worldwide governance indicators (WGI) and second group is Fraser institute indicators.

In order to answer the question, does corruption more depend on gender or institutional factors? Despite the behavioral specifications of women, the rate of corruption in women is lower than men (Dollar et al., 2001). We find by System Generalized Method of Moments strong evidence about this prediction. Results show that women’s participation decreases corruption and that corruption decreases women’s participation in government; and both effects are substantively significant. However, the estimation results of the systems studied in the present article confirm that the relationship between corruption index and gender inequality is significantly affected by the way the government works. While religions have no effect on how the index of corruption and gender inequality affect each other. Therefore, it can be said that government performance is a missing loop in relationship between corruption and gender and its effects are statistically significant.

Corruption is a historical, important and effective phenomenon. There is extensive researches about the factors of corruption. The social science literature indicates that women may be more honest or more risk averse and may have higher standards of ethical behavior and may be more concerned with the common good in comparison with men. This would imply that women are more willing to sacrifice private profit for the public good and this would be especially important for political and public life. Does greater participation of women in the public sector cause decreased corruption, or does greater corruption in government cause lower participation of women in government? In this study, our overall impression is that the evidence supports both propositions. So, the major aim in article is to explain the gender behavior of human to do corrupt activity in the formwork of government and religions using the dynamic panel data approach. Thus, this study used statistical data from 89 countries during 2008-2017, two corruption indicators, two groups of instrument variables and two groups of countries. The selection of countries was based on access to statistical data. The estimations show that religion has no significant effect on corruption and gender inequality index, i.e. Islam and Christianity have no significant effect on relation between corruption and gender inequality index. This study also investigated the impact of government performance on relation between two indices. In all systems, Sargan test has been confirmed. In summary, the results of estimated systems indicate that government institution is a missing loop in relationship between corruption and gender and its effects are statistically significant.

Aim and Introduction :

Over the past two decades, the banking system around the world has undergone significant changes in its operating environment, and several internal and external factors have influenced its structure and performance. Despite all these changes, the banking system remains the main source of financing economic activities in many countries. Therefore, evaluating the performance of the banking system is important. Profitability is one of the influential factors in evaluating the performance of banks. Thus, it is necessary to know the effective internal and external factors. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the concentration index on the profitability of the banking industry. On the other hand, banks as established and organized institutions play an important role in attracting stagnant capital and transferring it to productive sectors, as well as meeting the needs of investors. Since a competitive environment in the banking system can increase efficiency and facilitate financial transactions, identifying the market structure of the banking industry is important for policymakers and banking operators, because it can be the way to remove the obstacles in creating a competitive market.The policy makers could be selected the polices that achevied the economic goles.

In order to achieve this goal, the impact of factors affecting the risk and profitability of banks, we especially use the concentration index as one of the dimensions of the market structure in the banking industry. The method of estimation is generalized method of moments (GMM).For this purpose, concentration in the banking industry has been measured using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. In addition, six control variables including capital adequacy, central bank assets ratio, deposit ratio, liquid assets ratio, credit ratio and cost-to-income ratio have been selected as explanatory-control variables. In this way, the explanatory variables of banks' profitability include bank-specific factors. Return on total assets and bank stability index have been used as profitability and risk criteria of banks. Also, the situation of the organized monetary market of 52 countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation was studied over the period 2005-2019.

Based on the findings of the research, the effects of independent variables in the profitability model are statistically significant and have positive effects on the profitability of banks. Regarding the main hypothesis of the research, i.e. the effect of the concentration index on the profitability of the banking system, it can be seen that the increase in market concentration has increased the profitability, which has a significant coefficient of 0.003817, which confirms the Structure-Conduct-Performance(SCP) hypothesis. In other words, based on this hypothesis, as the degree of market competition decreases, it becomes possible to earn higher profits. In addition, independent variables with lag of time (banking stability index, capital adequacy and return on assets) and the ratio of loans to deposits and the ratio of central bank assets have positive and significant impacts on risk.

Experimental results have shown that the each of the independent variables has positive and significant effect on risk and profitability. The estimation results have shown the positive effect of the market concentration index on banks' profitability. In this way, in the periods when the concentration in the banking industry is higher, the profitability of the banks is high and with the increase in the level of concentration, the profitability of the banks has increased. As stated in the theoretical foundations, there are various theories regarding the relationship between concentration and profitability of banks. Although these theories differ on how to create this relationship, almost all of them emphasize that increasing concentration increases the profitability of banks and reduces competition. In other words, these theories predict that the relationship between concentration and profitability is positive. The result of fitting the research model shows a positive and significant effect of the concentration index on the return on total assets. This means that increasing market concentration has increased profitability. According to the obvious realities in the economies of the sample countries, the intensity of concentration in the banking industry have significant consequences for the profitability of banks by affecting the efficiency and effectiveness of resources.

In developing countries, the shocks that enter the economy due to capital market fluctuations have more depth and durability. Because of the two-way connection between the stock market and the real sector of the economy and public attention to this market, examining the stock market shocks is of great importance. Therefore, the present study investigated the extreme fluctuations of the stock market index, which suspected the existence of bubbles. Timing of these bubbles in the market is one of the goals of this study, which was carried out by using the right-tailed unit root tests based on the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. A stock price bubble may be affected by monetary policy. This issue is influenced by the size of the bubble and the type and strength of the applied monetary policy. The impact of monetary policy fluctuations and especially interest rates on stock price bubbles is theoretically uncertain and should be determined empirically. Therefore, another goal of this study is to examine the effects of monetary policy shocks on the formation and timing of the stock market bubble.

The method of Phillips et al.  (2015) has been used to identify and time the stock market bubble. Galli and Gambeti model and TVP-SVAR method were also used to investigate the effect of monetary policy on the stock market bubble.

BSADF (Backward Supreme Augmented Dicky-Fuller) test has been used to determine the dates when the stock market had a bubble. According to this test, in three short periods, from July to September 2005, from April to May 2011, and from October to November 2018, the stock market behaved like a bubble. Regarding the impact of the interest rate shock on the stock market bubble, it can be said that the monetary expansion shock (decrease in the real interest rate) causes the bubble part of the stock price to become larger. In all periods, the response of the bubble part was positive, but over time, has increased, and since the beginning of the 2010s, its response to the shock of interest rate reduction has completely changed. The liquidity shock, also strengthens the size of the bubble. The amount of this influence has also increased greatly over time and has reached its peak in 2017 (the year of the formation of the price bubble in the stock market based on the BSADF test). Therefore, it can be claimed that the increase in the bubble part of the stock price was caused by a positive shock or an increase in liquidity. Regarding the effect of the credit shock on the stock market bubble, it can be said that credits has affected the fundamental part of the stock price, but it does not have much effect on the bubble part of the stock price. In fact, the increase in credits has caused the liquidity restrictions of economic enterprises to be removed and has an effect on their production and sales and finally on their profitability. Therefore, it is expected that with an increase in credits (positive credit shock), most of the fundamental part (current and future profitability) of companies will be affected.

During the last decade, the public attention to the stock market in Iran increased significantly. This issue caused the entry of new funds into this market, which was seen in the bubble-like behavior of the stock price index. In the conventional economic theory, the positive impact of expansionary monetary policies on the bubble is expected, but there are other theories that make the long-term impact of the monetary policy shock on the size of the bubble uncertain and dependent on factors such as the size of the bubble, the stability of the monetary policy, and the type of monetary tool. In order to solve this theoretical ambiguity, the effect of one of these cases, i.e., changing the monetary policy tool, on the stock price bubble was investigated. Before that, the existence of a bubble in the stock market had been checked. Regarding the impact of monetary shocks on the stock price bubble, according to the type of monetary policy instrument, the reaction of the stock price bubble has been different. Interest rate policy and liquidity have had a positive effect on the bubble, but credit policy has not had such an effect. In most of the developed economies, the interest rate change is the most powerful monetary policy tool, as a small change in it can have a large impact on the real sector of these economies. But in our country, according to the empirical findings of this article, the effect of liquidity on the stock market bubbles has been greater than the effect of changing the interest rates on it. This result is a proof of the dominance of liquidity over monetary policies in Iran.

Internal and external economic crises and shocks are inevitable in different countries. Many countries are unable to resist economic crises and witnessed undesirable economic events. On the other hand, some countries are highly resilient to domestic and foreign economic crises.  The single-product countries are more vulnerable to economic crises than other countries. Resilience of the economy can help move the economy towards sustainable development.Sustainable development is a development that meets the current human needs without harming the capabilities of the future generations to meet their needs. For sustainable development, four dimensions including governance, economic, environmental and social dimensions are considered. Analyzing the growth history of countries reveals the fact that international trade has been the engine of economic prosperity and expansion of most advanced and developing societies. In order to achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to have trade relations with other countries of the world.Also, the country's distance from international trade centers due to specific geographical and political conditions will be an obstacle to the development of the economy. In this way, the peripheral dimension is proposed as the fifth dimension of sustainable development to show the political and geographical isolation of the country. In this article, first, the dimensions of sustainable development and its subgroup variables are determined. Then the impact of sustainable development dimensions on the state of economic vulnerability and resilience of different countries are analyzed. The statistical sample includes two groups of countries including G7 member countries and MENA countries. This study investigates the state of vulnerability and resilience (VR) of these two groups during 2017-2020.

In this article, Graph theory and Tarjan's algorithm are used to analyze the relationships within the network of variables influencing sustainable development and to examine the relationship between these variables and economic vulnerability and resilience. Tarjan's algorithm is looking for a strongly connected graph that can identify the fundamental variables affecting economic vulnerability and resilience and finally determine the maximal graph. The final output of Tarjan's algorithm is n* variables for measuring VR. Tarjan's algorithm divides the variables into two general parts; The first group of variables that causes vulnerability and resilience and the second group of variables that is created as a result of resilience and vulnerability. The initial set of variables in the dimensions of sustainable development includes economic, social, environmental, governance and peripheral dimensions. After identifying the relationships between the 43 variables presented, a graph is drawn that expresses the relationships between the desired variables.

The results of the algorithm reveal the fact that the resilience of the model is due to the economic and governance dimensions. If the "economic" or the "governance” dimension are specifically removed, the capacity of the directed graph which is resilient to the strongly connected feature will definitely be lost. Since governance and economic dimensions directly affect other dimensions, they are called as control dimensions. On the other hand, social, environmental and peripheral dimensions are considered as contingent dimensions.Therefore, contingent dimensions are directly dependent and influenced by control dimensions. In this research, the Net Vulnerability and Resilience Index (NVRI) is separated in all dimensions and calculated in the range of -1 and 1. The NVRI time series is shown during the period and based on the sample countries. The results indicate that in all periods, the status of the NVRI index of the G7 countries was better than the MENA countries, and all the G7 members had resilient economies.

According to the index calculations, the countries are classified into four states of uncontrolled vulnerable, limited vulnerable, unstable resilient and sustainable resilient. The G7 countries are sustainable and resilient, which means that in these countries, resilience has surpassed vulnerability. The countries of Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Occupied Palestine and Bahrain from the MENA group are also sustainable and resilient.The main strength of MENA countries, which are in the group of sustainable resilient, is focused on the peripheral dimension and how these countries interact with the global economy. Among these countries, the UAE and occupied Palestine have a more suitable situation. MENA countries are mainly in the pure and uncontrolled vulnerable group. The governance dimension and then the economic dimension are the important factors of the vulnerability of these countries.The temporal analysis of the index for the selected countries shows that the majority of the countries that are in the sustainable resilient group did not change their situation during the period under review. Iran is an uncontrolled vulnerable during the years 2017-2020, and in all periods, the index in governance and economic dimensions has been negative and vulnerability is more than resilience.The analysis of the NVRI index examines the strengths and weaknesses of MENA and G7 countries with a sustainable development approach. It helps the policymakers to get strategic suggestions to improve the situation in weaker countries by following the example of the countries that have a better VR state. The goal of quantifying the state of vulnerability and resilience is to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth in accordance with international programs.

The health and food security of a country depends on the production of the agricultural sector, and any disturbance in the production process of this sector can threaten the food security of households. Among the challenges affecting the agricultural sector, climate change is of double importance due to its direct impact on crop yield and water resources. The occurrence of climate change through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the producer surplus in this sector. This is despite the fact that, according to previous studies, climate change in the coming decades will be a visible phenomenon in most plains of Iran, and this issue will have negative consequences on water resources and, as a result, on the production of crops and food security. Therefore, considering the importance of food supply in the process of economic development, it is necessary to investigate the impact of food security on climate change and the welfare effects of this phenomenon in Iran. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain, considering 2018 as the base year, were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, income and food security in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated.

In this study, the dynamic positive mathematical programming(PMP) approach in endogenous price conditions was used. The experimental model, consisting of 18 crops and two types of irrigation technologies, was developed based on the information of 2018 as the base year and in a 20-year planning horizon. This model's objective function is to maximize the present value of net farm income. Resource constraints used in the experimental model include water, land, capital, labor, and chemical fertilizers, with chemical fertilizer restrictions repeated for each nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. Finally, the GAMS software and CONOPT3 algorithm were used for data analysis. In the meteorological dimension of the model, the climatic measurement of rainfall was studied in the form of SSP climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the rate of evapotranspiration of crops and, consequently, the production and yield of crops in the region due to climate change were estimated and integrated into the PMP model. Each of these relationships is responsible for providing some of the information needed in the experimental research model. Finally, the dynamic endogenous price optimization framework was estimated as a unit pattern. After evaluating the changes in the income of farmer households and crop pattern in the face of climate change, the food security index was calculated in the different climate scenarios. In the final stage of the research, management strategies were evaluated in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the food security.

The results showed that the annual cumulative rainfall values of the Hamadan-Bahar plain in the next 20-year period would have a decreasing trend in all climate scenarios, so that in the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios, the average rainfall would be 303, 272 and 252 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the amount of precipitation in the base year of this research (2018) is reported as 323 mm. Also, the results showed that with the considering an optimistic approach in predicting climate changes (SSP2 scenario), along with the increase of extraction from underground water sources by 13%, the increase in average price of agricultural products by 34% and the decrease in production by 5% in the 20-year planning period compared to the base year, the present value of net producer income and the food security index in the agricultural sector of the region would decrease by 17 and 11 percent, respectively. However, the adoption of management strategies such as the optimal deficit irrigation would improve the food security of the plain by 11 to 15 percent.

The change in the climate conditions in the coming years would have negative effects on the food security conditions in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this situation, considering that it is impossible to avoid different forms of climate scenarios, it is necessary to apply strategies to adapt to the mentioned phenomenon. Based on this, the optimal deficit irrigation, as a management strategy, was investigated, and the results confirm the positive effect of this strategy in improving the food security index in the region. Therefore, according to the results, management strategies with emphasis on deficit irrigation in the agricultural sector of Hamadan-Bahar plain should be put on the agenda.