نشریه آینده پژوهی راهبردی
پیاپی 4 (زمستان 1401)

Strategic intelligence (SI) in policymaking is a set of measures to search, process, disseminate, and protect information with the aim of presenting it to the right person at the right time to make the right decision. With this definition, Niro Research Institute, with the mission of research management in the electricity and energy industry, has a direct role in creating strategic intelligence. This article was compiled to evaluate this research institute's role in creating SI in the industry. To address this purpose, qualitative and applied research was conducted as a case study. The method of data collection is interview and document review and the method of data analysis is thematic analysis. In order to measure the status of the use of SI tools in the NRI Institute, according to the three main tools of this concept, i.e. technology-forecasting, technology-evaluation and technology-foresight. The results of the survey show that technology-forecasting is carried out in some parts of NRI, technology-evaluation has rarely been done and among the different foresight approaches including collaborative, research and strategic foresight, research foresight has been more inclined; While strategic foresight has been introduced as the best tool to establish a connection between scientific findings and policy making. The summary of the findings shows that in order to fulfill its role as an active think tank for research in the electricity and energy industry, NRI needs to strengthen strategic intelligence tools and it is necessary to improve its structures and processes in this field.The results of the survey show that technology-forecasting is carried out in some parts of NRI, technology-evaluation has rarely been done and among the different foresight approaches including collaborative, research and strategic foresight, research foresight has been more inclined; While strategic foresight has been introduced as the best tool to establish a connection between scientific findings and policy making. The summary of the findings shows that in order to fulfill its role as an active think tank for research in the electricity and energy industry, NRI needs to strengthen strategic intelligence tools and it is necessary to improve its structures and processes in this field.

The rapid growth of communication, IT and change in the lifestyle of urban dwellers with their increasing presence in the virtual space on the one hand and the significant increase in the process of urbanization and migration on the other hand have caused, creating a high population density in cities and so the necessity of managing and providing urban services based on technological tools & Information is more visible than before. In the meantime, some countries have made the development of cities and the electronicization of urban services dependent on conduct of special studies through policy and planning, from the results of which projects are extracted, which are known today as projects to create smart cities. Therefore, the aim of this research is to draw the future space of cities for the country's policy makers and planners and to confront them with the uncertainties that they will face in the future, and with a strategic view of this issue, while identifying the actors and drivers related to the creation and development of smart cities in The country has drawn the future space of these cities in the horizon of 1420. This research is of a qualitative type and in it, with the help of 19experts, during the holding of expert panels, the Peter Schwartz method was used for scenario development and four plausible scenarios were presented. Also, at the end of the research, suggestions are made to reach the desired scenario that can make the path to desired future smoother.

In recent years, the growing relations between China and the Israel in the fields of trade, investment, technology and tourist indicate a new geopolitical trend in the West Asian region. One of the reasons for the importance of this issue is that considering the substantive hostility between Iran and the Zionist regime and the position and importance of China in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the continuation and expansion of this relationship can threaten the geopolitical position of Iran in West Asia. . The main purpose of this article is to examine trends affecting the future of political-economic relations between China and the Zionist regime. The results of the research confirm that the three drivers "the future of US-China relations", "the future of China's relations with West Asian countries" and "the future of economic relations between China and Israel " can be used to describe the future of the relationship between Israel and China as the basis of analysis. It is possible that with the change of each of these drivers, the relations between China and the Zionist regime will change significantly. Based on this, macro trends such as increasing relations between China and the United States, decreasing relations between China and Iran and occupied Palestine, and increasing economic relations between China and the Israel are the basis for increasing relations between China and the Zionist regime. In this research, the method of trend analysis is used as one of the main methods of future research.

The West Asian region is very important in American foreign policy.And this country is always trying to expand its influence in this region, and the idea of influence in West Asia has been proposed to realize world order in order to manage conflicts and order and harmony in this region, challenges. But in the 21st century, global developments, the international order and the change in international politics have faced the hegemonic position of the United States of America with new challenges. that the occurrence of events and crises in the West Asian region has also determined the conditions and obstacles in the path of the new world-American order. The main question of the current research is, considering the simultaneous crises and events in this region with the new conditions of the world order, what are the drivers of the world order in the West Asian region? This research (applied, developmental) has been conducted with the aim of identifying the drivers of the new world order in the West Asian region. It is a descriptive, field research method, a library and field information collection method, the analysis of which has been done by evaluating the cross effects of identified drivers using mic mac software. As a result, key drivers were identified including: resistance movement diplomacy, Arab-Israeli coalition and border and territorial disputes between West Asian countries.

One of the main tasks of managers and top leaders is to draw a vision and lead the society in that direction. The drawn vision should be translated into achievable goals by the lower management levels and followed by the community. Considering the role and position of the Supreme Leader in drawing the vision and goals of the I.R.I, any partial vision drawing, planning, determining the strategy and defining effective measures at different levels, depends on knowing the features of the vision of the Islamic system from his point of view. However; So far, few studies have investigated this issue. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to extract the main elements of the macro perspective of the country in the intellectual system of the Supreme Leader and present it in the form of a conceptual network for the use of senior managers and political-social activists. For this purpose, his written and oral statements have been reviewed since 2013 and the resulting data have been analyzed using the qualitative content analysis method. By performing the theme analysis steps, 27 basic themes, 13 constructive themes and 5 comprehensive themes were obtained, which were finally categorized in the form of three main categories: "purpose and function", "requirements" and "features".

The purpose of this research is to identify the future plans in the technical and vocational education system of Iran in the way of a normative model with regard to the future of career research. To carry out this research, ten-year statistics of educational courses (years 1390-1400) related to technical and professional training centers of Razavi Khorasan province were used. The result obtained is based on the opinion of 35 experts of this organization regarding 4 scenarios raised in this field. In other words, according to the experts' point of view, according to scenario No.1, the most favorable future forecasting is in this direction, that the provision of skill training related to the needs of the market will regulate the supply and demand based on the mechanisms of the labor market, and in the process of reaching jobs The increase until 1404 will have a positive effect in Iran. Also, according to scenario No. 2, providing skill training related to market needs will accelerate the process of obsolescence of jobs that have a low and slow rate of change from the labor market cycle. According to scenario No.4, the provision of skill training unrelated to market needs will slow down the process of obtaining jobs needed by the society, and according to scenario No.3, the weakest prediction regarding technical and professional training is that providing skill training unrelated to market needs, To maintain old and obsolete jobs and backwardness at the regional level.