فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 164 (بهار 1403)

Individuals often use justification and find reasons in order to justify their choices both for themselves and for others. They use justification not only by choosing the options in each set but also by choosing the right set. The aim of this paper is to present a model that incorporates the above feature in individual's decision making. We argue that if inferring the preference is the only purpose, our model has more advantages than exiting models. Finally, for the model to be testable, we present its characterizing axiom and show that it is the necessary and sufficient condition for the new model.

The COVID-19 pandemic presented an immense global challenge, necessitating a delicate balance between preserving public health and sustaining economic and social equilibrium. This study employs econometric methods to investigate the influence of income support measures on COVID-19 mortality rates across 186 countries, spanning from January 1, 2020, to the onset of widespread vaccination campaigns, December 14, 2020. Employing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) for variable selection and the Augmented Mean Group estimator (AMG) for data analysis, the study discovers a significant reduction in COVID-19 mortality linked to income support. This effect primarily stems from alleviating poverty-related vulnerabilities and enhancing adherence to public health guidelines. Emphasizing the pivotal role of unconditional cash transfers during crises, the research underscores the varying efficacy of income support over time, with the most pronounced impact observed shortly after implementation. Nonetheless, it issues a cautionary note, particularly for developing nations, urging against an exclusive reliance on financial aid without addressing other determinants influencing adherence to health protocols, which could potentially curtail policy effectiveness. Advocating for a comprehensive approach, the study stresses the integration of financial assistance with broader strategies aimed at mitigating mortality during natural disasters.

Since the 1990s, many economists have taken different approaches towards resolving the risk premium and risk free rate puzzles. Identifying causes of these two puzzles can help investors, regulators and policy makers in finding out determinants of the asset prices in financial markets and thereby shaping the real sector trends in the economy so that to improve their allocations efficiency. Meanwhile, the periodic incidence and prevalance of ambiguity environment in many economies, especially economies with more fragile institutional and economic structures, such as many developing economies, including the Iranian economy, have turned attentions towards highlighting the consequences of ambiguity for investors’ decision-making and policy design by policy makers.Within a parsimonious continuous-time stochastic general equilibrium model including heterogeneous agents with ambiguity aversion, this study shows how by a utility function with constant relative risk aversion coefficient augmented with variable investment opportunities and financial friction, one can still make a more justifiable account for the above dual puzzles. Model calibration indicates that the model fits better with the stylized facts detected for different time periods.

The present study aims to examine the impact of different types of income (oil and tax) and government expenditure (current and construction) shocks on inflation under varying inflationary conditions. To achieve this objective, quarterly data from the Iranian economy from 1369 to 1399 was utilized, and a regime switching structural vector autoregression model based on stochastic volatility was employed to analyze. In this approach, inflation was considered as a regime variable, and a threshold value of 21% was estimated for each season. Subsequently, regime switching impulse response functions were employed to explore the effects of shocks in oil and tax income, current and construction expenditures, exchange rate, liquidity, and GDP growth on inflation. The findings of the STVAR-SV model employed in this study demonstrated that the impact of shocks in government revenues (oil and tax) and expenditures (current and construction) on inflation is much stronger in the high inflation regime (inflation above 21% in each season) compared to the low inflation regime (inflation below 21% in each season). Notably, the effect of shocks in government construction expenditures and oil revenues is significant solely in the high inflation regime, while being nonsignificant in the low inflation regime. Conversely, shocks in current government expenditures and tax revenues have a positive and significant effect on inflation in both inflationary regimes.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of real earnings smoothing on labour investment efficiency company's. In order to test the research hypothesis, from financial information 96 firms from listed on Tehran stock Exchange in 2015 – 2022 have been used. The results that real earnings smoothing on abnormal net hiring has a negative and significant effect, which shows that real earnings smoothing lowers deviations of real net hiring away from the expected level. The results obtained from the hypothesis test are in accordance with the signaling theory regarding private information, real earnings smoothing conveys managers' private information about future earnings to stakeholders and by doing so, it reduces the information asymmetry between firms and external capital suppliers and inefficient labour Eventually, real earnings smoothing can help companies achieve high productivity and labour investment efficiency.

One of the most important causes of inflation in the country is the "government budget deficit". The inevitable result of the budget deficit is the government's borrowing from the central bank, increasing the monetary base with an increasing factor and increasing liquidity in the country, which has made the budget deficit one of the main causes of structural inflation in Iran. Monitoring the implementation of the budget as the last stage of the life of a budget document is very important; Because without it, the approval and implementation of the budget will have no meaning. This monitoring is done in order to check the compliance of the operation with the approved budget plan and to prevent it from deviating from the goals set in the plan and to prevent its regrets. Monitoring after the beginning of the budget implementation process relies on the "budget subtraction report". However, observing the budget deduction reports that are prepared every year and the growth rate of expenditure credits and incomes, indicates the extent of deviation of the government from the budget and other institutions that use the public budget in some way. Since this report is presented to the Parliament after the end of the financial year related to the implementation of the budget, it cannot properly return the government to the path of determining the budget and can only increase the sensitivity of the Parliament for the following year, in this case, the report of the subtraction after The completion of the financial year is published and the matter is practically ruled out to avoid the diversion created. Despite these cases, this report is presented at a time when the parliament is at its busiest time and the consideration of this bill is practically not a priority of the parliament. According to the authors, the budget subtraction report in three-month periods and in the budget of the same year, in addition to strengthening the balance of power and strengthening the parliament's supervision over this important financial document of the country, also brings economic justice, which in this article We will prove it.