نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 37 (بهار و تابستان 1403)

Despite the government's policies and efforts to boost fertility rates in Iran, the total fertility rate has been declining over the past two decades. This research aims to identify the weight of determinants of fertility in Iran's provinces and provide relevant policy recommendations. The study utilizes the mathematical methods of Shannon entropy and K-means clustering. The findings reveal that per capita gross product holds the highest weight coefficient among fertility determinants across the provinces. Furthermore, the influence of economic, social, and demographic indicators on fertility varies among provinces. Provinces with higher coefficients in social and demographic indicators tend to exhibit higher fertility rates. Notably, provinces such as Sistan and Baluchistan, North Khorasan, and South Khorasan, despite low economic indicators, maintain fertility levels above replacement level. In conclusion, this research emphasizes the significance of understanding localized determinants of fertility and advocating for tailored policy interventions at the provincial level. Hence, a nuanced approach to regional politics becomes imperative. Furthermore, provinces like Alborz, Semnan, Gilan, Kermanshah, Ilam, and Isfahan, which score low on the overall index, should be prioritized for targeted population policies.

This research analyzes fertility attitudes and childbearing behaviors in Iran using both linear and non-linear models on a sample of 1,900 units collected through a survey method. The study enriches the cognitive perspective beyond structuralist and rationalist critiques by emphasizing indicators such as "the meaning of life," "the vague shadow of the future," "existential and economic uncertainty," and "behavioral changes in taste and preference." The study utilizes multi-layer analysis and hybrid models like the random forest model. The sample predominantly consists of individuals in their 30s with a university education. Findings reveal a higher desire for children compared to actual childbearing behavior, with women showing less desire than men, particularly in poorer classes where fertility rates are below replacement level. The desire to have four or more children among married individuals is predicted to be less than two percent. The study highlights the increasing correlation between women's education and realistic awareness of fertility dynamics.

Marriage patterns occur in various forms across different cultural settings. This study seeks to investigate the role of ethnicity in mate selection in Iran. Data from the "Marriage Survey" of the National Organization for Civil Registration of Iran (2016-2017) was used, which includes 9458 individuals who referred to the pre-marital testing laboratories in all provincial centers (except Tehran). The findings showed that 85% of the marriages were semi-arranged (spouse selected by the individual and approved by the family). The multinomial logistic regression test results showed that after controlling all the covariates, ethnicity retains its association with mate selection of both sexes. This finding emphasizes the importance of the normative-ethnic theoretical approach in explaining mate selection in Iran, contrasting with the theoretical approach of the similarity of characteristics. This study confirms the findings of previous studies on the role of ethnicity in marriage patterns in Iran. It emphasizes the importance of considering it as a cultural factor associated with specific values, norms, and customs in designing policies and programs that facilitate and consolidate marriage.

Marriages under the age of 18 are known as child marriages. The main objective of this research is to study the factors influencing child marriage and its multiple consequences. The research method is a qualitative meta-synthesis inductive type covering the period from 2010 to 2023. Using non-probability (purposive) sampling, 96 scientific documents were extracted from NoorMags, Magiran, and IranDoc scientific databases. After screening and selection, 55 documents were chosen as the sample size and entered the analysis phase. The findings indicate that cultural factors (cultural poverty, low status of knowledge, cultural pressure, norms, and beliefs); social factors (family violence, collapse of social capital, collapse of the family institution, risky lifestyle, social pressures); economic factors (pressure of poor life, relative deprivation, insecure job future, materialistic view of marriage); psychological factors (psychological fear, low self-esteem, negative label, psychological pressures); and contextual-demographic factors have significantly contributed to the emergence and prevalence of child marriage.  Child marriages have also had consequences that lead to marital crises, high-risk marital behaviors, cultural poverty, increasing economic burden, identity crises, feelings of insecurity, violence, decreased physical health, and unsafe lifestyles.

Paleodemography seeks to discern the demographic parameters of ancient populations through archaeological evidence. The foundational assumption in paleodemographic reconstructions is that the age and sex distribution of unearthed mortality samples accurately represent the death rates of the populations they belonged to. Under the principle of uniformitarianism, it is assumed the biological processes related to mortality and fertility in human populations have remained constant over time. Apart from the importance of overall numbers and rates of population growth, analyzing population structure offers deep insights into historical demographic processes and societal behaviors. The structure of a population in turn is shaped by the aggregate impact of health and disease experiences over time within a population. In certain cases, demographic data may provide evidence of a specific cause of death. Catastrophic events, whether natural mass disasters or high-mortality disease epidemics yield mortality distributions that reflect the age structure of the population at risk. Moreover, human migration significantly affects disease distribution globally, impacting indigenous populations, while other societal factors like war can also change the population structures. This paper reviews the determinants that shape and change the demographic structures of ancient populations by using the paleo-demographic approach.

Insurance companies need several assumptions to calculate premiums for life insurance products. One of these assumptions is a life table. Since 1400, insurance companies were required to use Iran’s life table for calculating life insurance premiums, which was designed based on Iran's demographic information. B, and before that, the French life table was used for this purpose. In this article, using various variables, the impact of changing the life table from the France life table to the Iran life table on the current value of the future loss of the life insurance products portfolio is carried out, analyzed, and compared. In addition, the calculations will be calculated and analyzed both for insureds with standard health risk and for insureds who have substandard health status. According to the findings of the article, in general, the insurance company makes a profit from providing a portfolio of standard insurance policies and a loss from providing a portfolio of substandard insurance policies. If the insurance company uses the France life table, then it will have more profit for standard policies and less loss for substandard policies compared to the Iran life table.

Identity changes and how to change them are important issues in the migration path. The current research is a contextual exploration of the interaction of identity and migration among immigrant women. The research method is qualitative and grounded theory is used. The participants were 21 women who immigrated to Yazd city from different provinces of the country and were selected purposefully and by theoretical sampling. The data collection tool was a semi-structured interview, and the data analysis was done using open, central, and selective coding. Based on the findings, the identity reactions of immigrant women and the experience of its consequences in the context of the transitioning society of the destination are influenced by factors such as the level of access to facilities and the level of gender discrimination in the source society. Immigrant women from progressive origins, with a strong individual-social identity and a suitable skill level, by responding to the high-level job demand of Yazd city, achieve a favorable social position. On the contrary, immigrant women from origins with a static culture and extensive deprivation, without the necessary skill support, start rethinking their individual-social identity. As a result, the transitioning city of Yazd is a very suitable socio-occupational platform for immigrant women from leading origins. While it brings a lot of identity, social and economic challenges for immigrant women from static origins.

Droughts, as extreme climatic events, have profound impacts on rural communities, often triggering significant shifts in migration patterns and challenging the livability of these areas. This study focuses on Bavi City, a region that has experienced the harsh realities of prolonged drought conditions, to analyze the resultant changes in the livability and migration behaviors of its rural households. The study sample includes 347 farmers who are heads of households living in the villages of Bavi city and were selected by systematic random sampling. Using the TOPSIS method, the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the livability level of rural households in Bavi City were calculated and prioritized. The results showed that most of the rural households have a low and medium livability level in all dimensions. The findings showed that there is a significant difference between the villages in terms of the livability of rural households in drought conditions. Also, based on the results, the relationship between the variables of age, education, and the number of promotional courses attended in one year with the living conditions of households is significant. In addition, the results showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between all dimensions of livability and the number of people who have migrated into their households.

Reverse migration is city-to-rural migration, which can be caused by various factors with different degrees of importance, depending on the environmental and spatial conditions. The villages of the central part of Masal City as the study area are among the areas with high reverse migration. Therefore, in the previous research, it was tried to identify and categorize the most important causes of migration to them. In this mixed research, first, the factors extracted from the documentary study along with the factors calculated from 20 structured interviews; It has been content validated by 10 experts and finally the final factors have been evaluated in the form of a questionnaire answered by 330 immigrants. The findings show that 31 reasons for reverse migration have been obtained, of which 9 factors are among urban repulsions and 22 factors are among rural attractions, and that these factors, categorized into 8 main factors, explain more than 83% of the variance of the causes of migration. As a result, rural attractions have far more impact than urban repulsions in migration to the studied area.

Human resources, particularly elite and competent individuals, play a vital role in various national domains. Therefore, effective and purposeful management of these valuable assets is crucial. When a society lacks elites, its development process can stagnate. Iran has been experiencing elite migration for some time, which poses significant challenges to the country's development. This study aims to examine and identify the factors influencing elite migration in Iran. A hierarchical process analysis-based evaluation model has been employed to rank these influential factors. In this regard, an expert-designed questionnaire was first created and then completed by experts. The results indicate that, according to experts, globalization has the most significant impact on the migration of Iranian elites. This paper proposes creating networks of Iranian professionals abroad for part-time collaboration with domestic scientific centers as a short-term solution. For a long-term solution, it suggests the creation of a suitable environment across various economic, social, and cultural dimensions to retain the country’s experts and mitigate their migration abroad.

From a demographic perspective, this study focuses on social responsibility as an indication of socio-cultural changes in the contemporary world, which has also been recognized in the second demographic transition theory as the most significant determinant of the changes in family and fertility. The research data is based on a survey conducted in urban-rural areas of Gorgan and has been analyzed by SPSS24 and AMOS25. The results obtained for Cronbach’s alpha, Kaiser-Meyer-Oklin, and Bartlett's test of sphericity are 0.954, 0.787, and 10702.896 respectively. According to the results, about one-third of the respondeants hold a high or very high level of social responsibility, and the remaining two-thirds hold a low level and middle level of social responsibility. The fFemale population has a higher level of social responsibility than the male population. Also, age and responsibility are correlated: the older the age, the higher the level of social responsibislity. The multivariate results confirmed that the higher levels of education and income lead to a higher level of social responbislity. In sum, the sustainable success of the higher childbearing-oriented policies rests upon the government’s comprehensive programs in order to meet responsibly a wide range of the needs in society that will also improve the individuals’ responsible behaviours and committed cooperation.

Considering the importance of generational and gender relations, in this article, we have investigated the gender analysis of emotional support between adult children and parents. The statistical population of this research is people aged 18 years and above in Tehran and were selected 1000 people from 30 districts in a multi-stage cluster method. The findings show that there are gender differences in the emotional support of parents and adult children to each other. So the fathers and mothers supported girls more than boys, and mothers’s emotional support from girls was more than fathers’. In the case of parents' divorce, fathers' emotional support was reported to be less than that of mothers. In addition, girls' emotional support from fathers and mothers was more than boys' emotional support from fathers and mothers, and girls' emotional support from mothers was more than that from fathers. Girls' and boys' emotional support from their fathers decreased in the case of parents’ divorce and conflict. In general, it can be said that mothers have more emotional ties with their children, especially with their daughters, and in divorce and parental conflict, adult children's relationships with their parents, especially with their father, are weakened. It is suggested to strengthen the emotional ties of fathers with their children and the efforts of parents in order to maintain the stability of married life.