نشریه آینده پژوهی راهبردی
پیاپی 11 (پاییز 1403)

Artificial intelligence, like any man-made artefact, has challenges and benefits that must be seen together in order to make the most optimal ways of using it possible. The current research examines the challenges and best practices related to the risk management of artificial intelligence in critical infrastructures and provides insights into effective risk management strategies for the deployment of artificial intelligence by analyzing significant incidents, examining case studies, and examining emerging trends. . Additionally, the critical role of strong cyber security measures, system constraints and secure mechanisms on AI-based critical infrastructure is highlighted in this research. Along with these, it is also relevant to examine emerging trends in artificial intelligence for critical infrastructure, such as edge computing, explainable artificial intelligence, and collaborative learning; Because these trends offer opportunities to improve the performance, transparency and privacy of artificial intelligence systems in critical infrastructure environments. By combining the pillars of this multidimensional content collection, the present research contributes to the understanding of AI risk management in critical infrastructure and provides valuable insights into challenges, best practices, and future directions for effective risk management. Data collection has been done based on document study and prospective prescriptions based on documents and expert validation. Policymakers, researchers, and industry professionals can use these findings to foster safe and sustainable AI deployment in critical infrastructure.

The West Asian region is a strategic region and during recent years it has always been subject to external interference or incitement of some countries in the region against others. Considering the importance of this region from different views and its impact on many political, security, economic and even religious and ethnic developments in the region and beyond, drawing the future perspective of West Asia based on the previous trends or the trends that are being formed is one of the most important goals of the Islamic Republic, because one should be familiar with possible future changes in the regional situation, political and security systems, and its stability and instability conditions in order to avoid strategic surprises, and it is also very important that Iran is always in changes and interactions. The region should be an effective activist and be able to maintain its stability and security. On the other hand, trend research is one of the scientific methods for studying the future. Therefore, the main problem of the research has been how to design a process that, by using trend research, it is possible to draw the perspective of West Asia, and in this way, the commanders and policy makers of the country's defense, security and foreign relations fields can plan effectively while avoiding surprises. Based on this research, about 500 trends have been examined and finally a model has been designed and proposed for drawing the perspective of West Asia based on the trend research process.

This article presents a systematic review of scenario planning in reputable journals, Futures and Foresight. The main objective of the research is to analyze articles that have used scenario planning as a research method, aiming to answer questions such as the fields of application, prominent authors, their nationalities, supporting academic institutions, and the type and number of scenarios in these studies. This study employs a systematic review approach and examines articles published from 1969 to 2024. To maximize the identification of relevant articles, keywords such as "Scenario," "Futures studies," and "Foresight" were used. In this process, 3,565 articles were initially identified, and after several screening stages, the number of articles was reduced to 875. The findings showed that the highest number of articles were published in 2010 and 2011, with prominent contributors like Sohail Inayatullah and Thomas Chermack being the most active. Authors from the United States and the United Kingdom are at the top, while Iran, with 25 published articles, ranks twelfth. The majority of articles are focused on the fields of management and economics (30%) and environment and urban management (20%). Additionally, 65% of the articles were authored by research teams. Most of the articles dealt with exploratory scenarios and quantitative approaches, often presenting two to four scenarios. This paper highlights the importance of scenario planning as a tool for analyzing the future and making informed decisions in various fields.

This research has been carried out by a systematic review method with the main goal of identifying and reviewing the literature of researches that have used the future wheel method. For this purpose, in order to obtain the existing research written in this field, the articles available in foreign reliable databases such as: Foresite and etc. with the keywords "FuturesWheel" and The published domestic scientific research articles of sivilika, and etc, searched with the keyword "wheel of the future".In the first step, a total of 36 articles were extracted, and, 14 foreign articles and 15 domestic articles were selected. The results of the survey show that in total, domestic and foreign articles in the fields of health, education, and industrial economy have the highest frequency. In expressing the weaknesses of internal studies, it is possible to point out the lack of attention to the diverse selection of participatory groups, the analysis of outcomes without considering their potential benefits and consequences, and only focusing on the identification of outcomes.Of course, its implementation method in military-security and health research in the internal studies department, in order to determine the important effects of the results for short-term planning, is the strength of these studies. It seems that benefiting from authors this field has not been ineffective. At the same time as the future wheel method as the main method of other methods in the field of future studies such as: expert panel, brainstorming, interview, etc., it has been used in combination method،

 The development of effective methods in order to reduce the complexities and uncertainties of the future and to face rapid and discrete changes is a necessity in this era. Road Mapping as an effective tool to reduce the complexity of complex and dynamic systems is of interest to future researchers. Therefore, due to the multiplicity and variety of issues related to Road Mapping, many researches have been conducted in this field. The purpose of this current research is to identify the research trends and emerging and used fields, considering the large volume of researches. In this research, the research process of researchers in the field of Road Mapping has been analyzed by using scientometric techniques. For this purpose, 7418 articles published between 1975 and December 2023 in the field of Road Mapping were analyzed in the "Web of Science" database using the "Vos Viewer" tool, and the reference network of the articles was also Occurrence of key words, author collaboration and journal references were analyzed and prominent authors, journals and research areas were identified. Based on this, the magazine "Technological Forecasting and Social Changes" and "Solid State Technology" have a bigger knot than other magazines, which shows their greater impact on the field of mapping. Also,,Phaal,Gerdsri,Van, Daim, Lee, Zhang have been the most influential authors in the field of road mapping.Among the key words used in all reviewed articles, the words technology roadmap, probability based roadmap, patent roadmap, governance, decision making have the highest ranking among articles in the field.

Future studies deals with the issue of the future of societies as a new science. This knowledge seeks to identify, invent, present, test and evaluate possible and probable futures in order to choose the preferred future based on society's values and help to build the most desirable future. Islamic futurology also follows the same ideal based on Islamic teachings. Islamic texts, especially books such as the Holy Quran and Nahj al-Balagha, have spoken about the types of desirable and undesirable futures and have introduced it as the preferred future in detail and have explained how to achieve the desirable future and avoid the undesirable future. The future in Nahj al-Balagha is of two types. The definite future is divided into the indefinite future. The inevitable future includes the resurrection, the return of the righteous and the appearance of the savior, and it is beyond the control, planning, and authority of humans and societies; But it cannot be considered outside the science of future studies; Because individuals and societies are independent in the way they face inevitable futures, and planning aimed at how to reach desirable inevitable futures will be a part of this knowledge. Uncertain futures, which are divided into two types of unseen uncertain futures and rational-rational uncertain futures, speak of the futures that are created by human possession, free will and planning, and there is no doubt in the inclusion of futurology knowledge. Amir al-Mu'minin, peace be upon him, has mentioned all the above futures in Nahj al-Balaghah.