نشریه آینده پژوهی راهبردی
پیاپی 10 (تابستان 1403)

this purpose, the temperature and precipitation data of 60 synoptic stations with appropriate distribution in the country as well as the data of 8 CMIP6 models under three common socio-economic trajectory scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) with application Linear Scaling Skew Correction (LSBC) method was used and after evaluating the models using RMSE, MAE and R2 metrics and choosing the optimal model to predict temperature and precipitation changes in the future period (2031-2050) The basic period (1992-2022) was addressed. The results showed that the LSBC method has the ability to simulate temperature and precipitation changes in the study area. Based on the results, among the different CMIP6 models examined, the MPI-ESM1-2-LR and MRI-ESM2-0 models respectively have the best performance in the field of rainfall and temperature simulation in the country. The results of forecasting changes in temperature and precipitation also showed that the temperature will increase between 1.1 and 1.2 degrees Celsius in the studied area, and the biggest changes are related to the eastern, then southern and central regions of the country. The least changes are related to colder areas in the west and northwest of the country. However, according to the results, the amount of precipitation in the study area will decrease between 12 and 28 percent, and the largest changes are related to the eastern and central regions of the country, and the smallest changes are related to the western and northwestern regions of the country.

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, there have been significant changes in the global oil market. In response to the sanctions imposed by the United States and European countries, Russia has considered new markets in West and East Asia in order to maintain the flow of its foreign trade, especially in the field of oil. The main question of the current research is how the reading of the emerging world order has influenced the evolution of the role of the United Arab Emirates in particular and the global oil equations in the period after the start of the Ukraine war? The findings of this article show that the different readings of the players who determine the global oil market, especially China, Russia, India, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have led to different approaches from the emerging order. Abu Dhabi's specific reading of the need for strategic diversification has shaped a pragmatic foreign policy based on flexible cooperation in the global energy market. In addition, the analyzed data confirm the idea of the economic rotation of the players determining the market towards the East and Asia. This article is descriptive-analytical and the required information is collected by library method and reference to reliable internet sources.

The influence and social base of the clergy is one of the topics that has always been discussed. Therefore, through historical events, thinkers have debated about the role and influence of the clergy in its realization. This paper, unlike other researches that investigate the influence of the clergy in a past event, examines the issue with a view to the future and aims to examine the influence and social base of the clergy in the future. In order to solve this problem, in the first step by reviewing the literature, drivers affecting the topic were identified and important drivers were introduced after seven Delphi method steps. In the next step, the key drivers were identified with the method of cross-impact analysis and using the Mic Mac software. Finally, using scenario wizard software, the scenarios ahead of the subject were examined. By examining the opinions of experts, 6 key drivers were identified out of 15 important and influential drivers, and by using the opinions of experts, four possible scenarios were designed, which are one favorable scenario, one disaster scenario, and two intermediate scenarios. Among the stated scenarios, the most likely scenario is the spiritual scenario, which can be made more prominent in the society with the changes in educational, educational and social policies that were mentioned in the policies section.

The current world is facing rapid changes, full of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, and these developments create great surprises over time. In this condition strategic and timely understanding of realities and active action creates the ability to use opportunities, and neglecting and passivity action lead to various threats,in this regard one of the ways, is to use futures studies and watching.Conventional watching has limitations and will be threatened ,in the case of lack of attention. Artificial intelligence, as one of the most effective emerging technologies in the world,  has become the driver of broad changes in various fields and watching field as well. In this research, we focus on AI based watching considering capabilities and limitations of AI.This research is applied type  with a qualitative approach.at the beginning, with literature review and desk research, primary information has been collected.Then, using the purposeful sampling method, 15 experts in Futures studies and AI were selected.This research was carried out using the Delphi method in two stages for finalizaing and evaluating watching limitations, and at the end, holding expert panel to select base model, validate result and issue proposed model. The time horizon of the research was selected in a 10-year, and in terms of the location, the futures studies departments and Iranian organizations and researchers were considered. According to functions of artificial intelligence in watching, an improved Rohrbeck model has been proposed by integration of conventional watching with AI.

The origin of the formation, dynamism and non-stagnation of any civilization is dependent on the flow (both material and spiritual) that every civilization emerges with. In modern thinking, what creates and advances human civilization and history is the concentration and gathering on the axis of material things, which over time, with the intervention of human innovation and cultural creativity arising from nature, instinct and human heritage, have their own spiritual, intellectual and cultural components. While from a religious point of view, firstly, the starting point of history is determined by the divine process and the creation of a perfect human being and it ends with a perfect human being; Secondly, it is the flow of “Shariat” (as a central element) which is considered the origin and driving factor of civilization. The meaning of Shariat is the divine flow that God sets for prophets or nations and manifests it in the form of a set of rules, opinions and laws; Therefore, Shariat here is not limited to Sharia credits and jurisprudence, but in a broad concept and scope of reality and formative laws, it also includes tools and technology. Current, historicity and continuity of the legislation appropriate to each prophet and nation shows that this goal is also a gradual and historical goal. according to the end of prophethood, Muhammadiyah Shariat It is the last part of the realization of this ideal and the promise of religious establishment will happen in the text of this Shariat.

The problem of corruption in societies is a complex and multi-layered problem with multiple sides, and finding ways to deal with each of the sides requires understanding the roots and different layers of corruption. The current research is an exploratory qualitative research based on letter 53 of Nahj al-Balagheh (Malik Ashtar Agreement) with a future-oriented approach and with the aim of discovering the layers of corruption using the layer analysis method to visualize the future of dealing with corruption. In this regard, 15 major and central topics from the text of Alavi's speeches which were explicitly or implicitly related to corruption were selected and subjected to content analysis at the four levels of objective/formal, objective/deep, mental/formal, mental/deep are Based on the findings of the research, examples of corruption can be evaluated at the four levels mentioned, and what is observed at the objective/official level is rooted in the objective/deep level, and its necessity or prohibition is expressed at the mental/official level, and at the mental/deep level, The root and causes of the issues are here. The image that current research presents of different layers of corruption in relation to the future of societies is absolutely promising, possible and likely for all societies to take appropriate action to achieve the results of fighting corruption or to prevent the consequences of corruption. ; Because many corruptions of societies have similar roots and methods of dealing with it have also been experienced.