نشریه آینده پژوهی راهبردی
پیاپی 8 (زمستان 1402)

Contemporary transformations in the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the West Asian region, including changes in regional alliance and coalition patterns, power projection of actors and regional power poles, the way trans-regional powers interact and alternative and sometimes conflicting views about the geopolitical order and arrangement of the region all indicate The increase in the potential of strategic developments in the future of the region will inevitably affect the actors and political units in this regional system. Based on this and considering the principle of prevention of strategic surprise as well as early awareness of upcoming opportunities and threats, it is important to monitor these transformations and the nobles on them. Based on this, the aim of this article is to design a model for monitoring the strategic developments of the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in West Asia. The current research, by examining future research models in various fields based on the method of metacombination and adjustment, coordinating and applying it with strategic indicators underlying transformations in the West Asian region through the implementation of the interpretive structural modeling method, seeks to find an optimal model in the direction of scanning weak signs of change and monitoring. The model presented in this research tries to structure and optimize this complex process.

This research uses Schwartz's scenario writing model to identify the actors of the future scenarios of the oil products market of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In the first approach, with the approval of JCPOA and the control of Corona and peace between Russia and Ukraine, the market of oil products of the Islamic Republic will enjoy prosperity and prosperity. Of course, if this scenario occurs, the relevant officials and politicians should make the most of the upcoming opportunity by making the right decisions and policies and consulting the elites of this field. The second approach can be seen as the complete opposite of the first approach. In such a way that a disaster will occur and the oil products market of the Islamic Republic will be destroyed and regional actors will replace it. The third approach is a middle state of the above two approaches, which can be said to draw the current situation in a way. Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the regional market has been seized by this country due to Russia's unlimited discounts on oil products, which causes a decrease in the export of oil products of the Islamic Republic.

The general policies of the system contain principles that bring the future ideals closer to the implementation concepts, therefore, examining future threats in the way of implementing the general policies of the system is of great importance and by conducting this research, it is possible to increase the effectiveness of the implementation of the general policies of the system in The future is achieved.By referring to the past reports of competent authorities, it can be seen that the general policies of the system have not been properly implemented.The research method of the above research is a qualitative one that uses the library method and interviews with12experts to examine the future threats in the path of implementing the general policies of the supreme leader's notification system, which finally identified30 factors as future threats.It is introduced in the way of implementing the general policies of the system.According to the obtained results, it can be said that the biggest threats in the future in the way of the implementation of the general policies of the system are in the process and management dimension, and in order to eliminate these threats, re-engineering the processes of policy implementation as well as the necessary training for the implementers of these policies should be done more than before.It is extremely important.In order to measure the validity of the results with the number of panel members of12,the reliability of the research was also obtained by Cronbach's alpha method in SPSS software, which shows good reliability for the research.

According to historical experience, new and emerging technologies and technologies that will be obtained in the future; They are considered as one of the most important influencing factors on developments and shapers of the future. Therefore, in order to achieve success, it is necessary to acquire new and emerging technology and try to participate in the process of creating technologies in the future. In this article, an attempt is made; Emerging technologies definition and differences, applications and its extent should be examined. Also, the things mentioned in this article are only a part of the unique applications of emerging technologies. As these technologies progress more and more, applications based on virtual reality, augmented reality and extended reality will open their way to our lives more than before.With the emergence and use of this technology, business owners can have a stronger relationship with their customers and make their name and brand known to everyone by providing unique experiences for their customers. Considering the novelty of the applications of these technologies, especially in Iran, how can business owners use them for their progress? In today's developing world, keeping up with the latest technologies is one of the main keys to business success.

Future research in the field of soft threats is a multifaceted and dynamic matter, considering various aspects related to driving forces, including social, economic and political factors. In order to counter the export of the Islamic revolution to other countries and its consequences for global arrogance, the enemy tried hard war and after failure in this area, soft war despite its complications as a strategy to change Iran's political system in Contract agenda. In this research, an attempt has been made to investigate the factors influencing the occurrence of soft war and predicting the time of its occurrence and how to conduct it. For this purpose, after scenario writing, the relationships between different scenarios are examined in order to understand the relationships between the scenarios in order to effectively address the challenges and achieve a desirable model in the field of predicting the enemy's soft threats. All the components in the field of soft war are quantified with elite valuation and provide quantitative and comparable results.

Infiltration is a low-cost way to achieve the goal, which can be effective if it is planned and designed in the form of predetermined scenarios, while having no or low cost. Understanding the phenomenon of influence and its role in the transformation and collapse of revolutions and movements is considered as one of the most important factors and solutions for the sustainability of the achievements and protection of the revolutions. This article aims to plan and act to deal with influence in the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran through the foresight of dealing with influence based on the opinions and thoughts of Imam Khamenei. In terms of practical purpose, in terms of data collection, it is a library method, in terms of qualitative data type, in terms of the foundation's data collection and research method, it is a survey type. In this article, while expressing concepts about foresight and influence by drawing Schultz's conceptual model, it has been tried to examine the views of Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, in the field of dealing with influence using Schultz's five-stage model. The findings of this research show that Ayatollah Khamenei emphasizes on accurate identification of internal and external threats and comprehensive analysis of the effects of enemy influence. Developing different scenarios to deal with threats, evaluating, compiling and implementing them is part of his strategic approach.