فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 126 (تابستان 1403)

The development of export of non-oil products with relative advantage in the world markets is an inevitable requirement for Iran. In other words, due to the strong dependence of the country's economy on oil, on the one hand, and the instability and extreme fluctuations of oil prices in the world markets as well as due to the dominance of a multilateral monopoly market on it, on the other hand, many of the anomalies that govern this market have been transferred to the interior; and it makes the economic activities fluctuate according to the exchange rate. This study mainly aimed at investigating the factors affecting economic growth with the approach of exchange rate and export (non-oil products, including agricultural products). For this purpose, an economic growth model based on conventional explanatory variables such as labor force growth, fixed physical capital growth based on the Solow growth model (1956) and human capital based on the Lucas growth model (1988) were used. The real exchange rate was used with respect to the real exchange rate variable based on the study of Tang (2015). The studied period was 1974-2019.

The study also used Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) econometric model so that firstly, Dickey-Fuller test was applied and the stationarity of the variables was investigated, indicating that all the studied variables including Gross Domestic Product growth (GDP0), Capital Stock growth (K0), Labor Force growth (L), Agricultural Product Export growth (Ex) and Exchange Rate (Exc) at level I_0 were stationary and using the Schwartz criterion, the optimal interval of ‘one’ was determined. Then, the long-term relationships between the variables were measured using the Johanson test, and the model was fitted by the VAR method with an optimal interval of one. The results could be interpreted that basically, single equation methods were not important in the estimation of coefficients equations and the explanatory percentage of model parameters, and it was not expected that all the obtained coefficients related to the interval of variables were statistically significant, but it might be possible that the coefficients in total were significant based on the F statistic. In other words, in general, the F test statistics confirm the significance of the coefficients. Also, following the estimation of the shock effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable, it was analyzed and finally, the fluctuation rate of the variables was tested using variance analysis.

As shown by the results of previous concerned studies, there is a significant relationship between the exchange rate and the export and economic growth in the studied countries. Therefore, the analysis of the influencing behavior of exchange rates and exports on economic growth has always attracted the attention of economic experts and policy makers to formulate the policies. In the opinion of most development scholars, the role of capital in the process of economic growth is fundamental, because in this process, the society faced the increase in population followed by an increase in the replacement of depreciated capital and maintaining the level of national income at the same level as the previous year, we still need some investment throughout the year. Therefore, capital formation is an inseparable element of economic activities in any country. In general, the sources of capital funds are either domestic or foreign. In Harrod-Dumar growth model, capital is considered as the main factor of movement. Thus, the role of investment in this model is examined from the two dimensions of total demand and total supply. This means that when investment is made, the total demand increases; and from the supply side, when (net) investment is made, capital accumulation occurs, that is, it adds to the capital stock, and this causes an increase in production and as a result, an increase in total supply. The growth of the capital stock has an effect on the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the results obtained in this study were in line with the other concerned studies. The growth of the labor force in the model has a positive effect on the economic growth, probably due to the demographic shocks of the Iranian economy under the unfavorable conditions while such a bad economy of the country should be able to be a stimulus for economic growth. Also, the high rate of labor, along with the increase in the rate of economic participation, has all shown that the Iran’s economy could benefit from the high capacity of the labor force in the country; therefore, the growth of the labor force has had a positive effect on economic growth. On the other hand, due to the handing over of public companies to the private sector, it has increased the productivity of the labor force in this sector and the application of additional employments has increased the production, but it has also led to an increase in the total supply and as a result, a decrease in prices.Conclusions and Suggestions: The study results indicated that the exchange rate and export had an effect on the growth of Iran's economy. Since the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is considered as the capacity and foundation of an economic system and with GDP increase, the ability of the country to absorb and produce products increases, it is proper to invest in increasing the GDP in the agricultural sector and as a result, the ability to absorb and produce agricultural products in particular. Due to the many changes and fluctuations in Iran's economy, it is necessary that first, by formulating appropriate policies and solutions in the field of stabilizing the exchange rate and increasing trade, the control and adjustment of currency uncertainties should be provided in order to overcome this to see an increase in production, export and improvement of the country's trade balance. The use of exchange rate risk hedging tools, transparency in the government's foreign exchange policies and obliging policymakers to reduce exchange rate fluctuations could be appropriate solutions in line with import management including the implementation of exchange rate adjustment policies in the market to manage the behavior of the factors affecting the import policies to reduce the risk of the production and business environment which should be put on the agenda. It is necessary to manage monetary policies in coordination with financial policies, but as independently as possible, because instability in the currency market can cause problems in price stability and as a result, in profits, and thus directly affects the trade volume of agricultural products, especially products with high export value. In addition, it is appropriate that by investing and providing a suitable platform for foreign capital in order to expand physical capital, the grounds for encouraging investors are provided and on the other hand, the increase and promotion of total productivity is also the basis for increasing economic growth; also, by removing the obstacles and creating the necessary security for foreign investment, the scope for increasing the acquisition of technical knowledge and strengthening the simple workforce to professional workforce should be considered. Finally, considering the results obtained and the impact of agricultural products exports on exchange rate changes, it is necessary to create a stable economic environment in the long term as an effective policy and also to provide transparent information about the trend of future exchange rate changes in the short and long terms in the policy agenda of the policy makers and economic officials of the country.

This study aimed at proposing suitable business and revenue models for businesses venturing into electronic commerce within the agricultural sector. The research methodology included an in-depth examination and classification of top global businesses in various sectors, with a focus on identifying the challenges and revenue models employed by them. The study utilized qualitative evaluation indices to assess the business models of top Iranian and foreign websites and applications. Data mining methods, clustering techniques, and MATLAB data mining tools were employed to classify businesses and compare them with global counterparts. The research identified and categorized the challenges and revenue models of top businesses across various sectors, with a specific focus on the agricultural domain. The study used valuable insights, presenting ten significant challenges within the agricultural sector, which are used for clustering businesses and proposing revenue models tailored to this specific industry. In addition, it introduced a model for businesses to identify suitable revenue models by recognizing the addressed challenges and their functional domain. The proposed model serves as a comprehensive guide for businesses seeking to establish a presence in electronic commerce within the agricultural sector. This study highlighted the potential for policymakers to update the identified challenges based on evolving environmental requirements. Moreover, by drawing insights from successful global businesses, the study suggested the possibility of updating clustering and revenue models to align with current industry trends and best practices.

The inflexibility in agricultural production structure is a problem that makes it impossible to return sustainability. Therefore, flexibility leads sustainability in the direction of moderation. This study aimed at investigating the wheat, barley and maize sustainability trend as well as their comparisons in North and South Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces of Iran. So, the composite indices of environmental, economic, and service productivity sustainability of wheat, barley and maize in the concerned provinces during 2000-2021 were calculated using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approaches. In AHP, the environmental, economic and service criteria were found to be important, respectively; the water, water resources, financial and transportation were also important, respectively; the pressurized irrigation, water pricing, income and profit sub-sub-criteria were more important and poison, deep well and chemical fertilizer the sub-sub-criteria were less important. To determine the trend, the sustainability criteria were divided into four time periods including 2000-2005, 2006-2009, 2010-2013 and 2014-2021 for environmental and 2000-2006, 2007-2013, 2014-2018 and 2019-2021 for economic and service sustainability. In most years, the trend of environmental sustainability for the concerned periods was decreased, increased and decreased, respectively; the trend of economic sustainability for the concerned periods was decreased, decreased and increased, respectively; and the trend of service sustainability for the four mentioned periods was decreased. In most years, the environmental sustainability in North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan was more for wheat, maize and barley, respectively and the environmental sustainability in South Kerman was more for barley, wheat and corn, respectively; the economic sustainability in North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan was more for maize, barley and wheat, respectively; and the economic sustainability in South Kerman was more for maize, wheat and barley, respectively; and the service sustainability in Southeast Iran was more for maize, wheat and barley, respectively. Also, the environmental sustainability of wheat was more in North Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Kerman, respectively and that of barley was more in South Kerman, North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan, respectively while that of maize was more in Sistan and Baluchistan, North Kerman and South Kerman, respectively. In addition, the economic sustainability of wheat was more in South Kerman, North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan, respectively and that of barley was more in North Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Kerman, respectively while that of maize was more in Sistan and Baluchistan, North Kerman and South Kerman, respectively. The service sustainability of wheat and barley was more in North Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Kerman, respectively and that of maize was more in North Kerman, South Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan, respectively. The modified De Martonne results showed that during the study period, the plains of North Kerman were located in dry climate with about 2-5.99 and cold and moderate subclimate; the plains of South Kerman were located in dry climate with about 0-1.99 and 2-5.99 and cold and moderate and warm subclimate; and the plains of Sistan and Baluchistan were located in dry climate with around 0-1.99 and warm and moderate subclimate. The extended De Martonne showed that the sustainability criteria decreased with the change in the average minimum daily temperature in the coldest month of the year. According to the study results, it can be suggested to provide the basis for increasing sustainability by teaching and promoting productivity-increasing solutions. Also, in order to achieve this goal, the sustainability of agriculture needs the support and proper planning of policymakers, so that it has an upward trend in compliance with global standards. To increase environmental sustainability, more practical solutions should be applied in the consumption of inputs; to increase economic sustainability, financial sustainability needs reforms; and to increase service sustainability, there should be made a revision in packaging and transportation procedures.

According to experts, Iran is the largest producer of rose water in the world, but it has a weak position in the global market for the export of rose essence and its products. The majority of rose production in Iran is consumed domestically as well as internationally, as rose water, fresh and dried rose petals, while the profitability lies in the production and export of rose essence, perfumes, cosmetic and hygiene products. In this study, after calculating market share, market size, import continuity, export price, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, and export price risk index, target countries were studied and analyzed using K-means clustering based on similarity with these indices. The required data for the research period of 2012-2021 were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA). One of the most important non-hierarchical clustering methods is the K-means method, which is considered as a basic method for many other clustering methods. According to this method, cluster centers are first obtained, which are actually the average points belonging to each cluster. Then, each data point is assigned to a cluster based on the cluster whose center has the smallest distance to that data point. The best clustering is one that maximizes the similarity between the cluster center and all cluster members and minimizes the similarity between cluster centers. In this study, the following variables were used for clustering:Market Share: According to the IRICA data, it includes those countries that have allocated more than one percent of Iran's exports share to themselves for rose and its products during the studied period (2012-2021).Market Size: Based on the IRICA data, this index represents the average amount of imports made by selected countries from Iran during the studied period.Market Growth: The average growth of imports during the studied period is considered as an indicator of market growth.Continuity of Imports: It is the continuous access to the desired market, and this indicator is measured by calculating the coefficient of variation (CV) of imports to that country.Market Structure: Market structure refers to the concentration of buyers and sellers, entry conditions, and the degree of homogeneity of goods. Market structure indicates whether the market is monopolistic or competitive, which can be determined by calculating concentration ratios such as the Concentration Ratio (CR) or the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).Value of Exports: It is obtained by the ratio of the value of exports (in dollars) to the quantity of exports.Export Price Risk: The coefficient of variation (CV) of export prices over the years studied is considered as export price risk. During the studied period (2012-2021), Iran exported dried flowers and fresh rose petals to 45 countries around the world. The most important export markets for dried flowers and fresh rose petals during this period included Germany, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Vietnam, Kuwait, Iraq, and Spain. Iran exported rose water to approximately 60 countries from 2012 to 2021. The top ten major importers of rose water from Iran were found to be the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Iraq, France, Saudi Arabia, China, and Afghanistan. The destination countries for rose water exports were categorized into five clusters. Similarly, based on the results, the target countries for exports were prioritized in 5 clusters. According to IRICA statistics, Iran exported rose essence to 17 countries worldwide during 2012-2021. The most important export markets for rose essence in terms of market size (average over the period) during the same period included Hong Kong, Australia, China, Germany, France, Canada, Spain, Bulgaria, Austria, and the United Arab Emirates. Germany was the largest importer of rose essence during the mentioned period. Based on the results, destination countries for the export of rose water essence were categorized into four clusters (priorities), with Japan and Canada in the first cluster, Hong Kong and China in the second cluster, Germany in the third cluster as well as with the highest number of countries including France, Russia, Spain, Bulgaria, Austria, and England in the fourth cluster. Based on the study results, the countries importing Damask Rose and Damask rosewater were grouped into five clusters each based on their similarity to the indicators mentioned. Furthermore, importing countries of rose essence from Iran were placed in four clusters. It is evident that any planning to maintain target markets, reduce export price risk, and sustain income and the export market share of Iran requires attention to consistent policies for the countries in each cluster. It is also worth-mentioning that export priority to target countries from the first cluster should be initiated and then, expanded to subsequent clusters. Finally, based on the research findings, it is recommended that the policy for the development of rose essence exports and related complementary industries be considered by policymakers.

One of the important concerns of policymakers in Iran is the management of changes and crises created in the foreign exchange market. This issue is more felt in countries dependent on the import of intermediate goods and production inputs. Considering the effect of the exchange rate on the trade of agricultural inputs on the one hand, and the close relationship between the import of agricultural inputs and food security on the other hand, knowing the effects and relationship of the exchange rate with the trade of agricultural inputs is of particular importance for proper policy making in this sector. Iran's foreign exchange policies for the import of different groups of goods were varied and the type of allocated exchange rate for the import of each group of goods was different in different years. Over recent years, the import of basic goods, including livestock and poultry inputs, has been carried out at the official exchange rate. Considering that the exchange rate of the free market has experienced a much higher level than the official exchange rate, it has caused the import of livestock inputs more than usual during the past years. In this regard, this study aimed at investigating the effect of the gap of free and official exchange rates on the import volume of livestock inputs using the Markov Switching approach during the years 1993-2021.

In this study, the relationship between the "free and official exchange rate gap" index and the import volume variable of each of the livestock inputs of soybean meal, corn and barley was modeled as follows:In the above equation, LIM is the logarithm of input import volume, LPW is the logarithm of global input price, LRG is the logarithm of the gap between the free exchange rate and the official exchange rate, LTA is the input import tariff rate, and LYE is the amount of domestic production. According to the import demand function, it was expected that the effect of world price, import tariff rate and domestic production of each input on the imports volume would be negative and the variable effect of the gap between the free and official exchange rates on the volume of imports would be positive. In this study, the Markov Switching model was used to achieve the research goal. The studied time period included the annual data of 1993-2021.

The estimation results of the Markov Switching model for each of the equations of corn, barley and soybean meal showed that the effect of the world price of corn, barley and soybean meal on their import volume was negative and significant. In addition, the effect of the corn import tariff variable on its import volume was negative and significant, while the import tariff of barley and soybean meal did not have a significant effect on their import volume. An increasing in the domestic production of barley and soybean meal would result in decreasing their import volume, while changes in the domestic production of corn would not have a significant effect on its import volume. As expected, the effect of the gap between the free and official exchange rates on the import volume of corn, barley, and soybean meal was also positive and significant, so that as the gap between the free and official exchange rates increased, the demand for importing these products would also increase.

Based on the study results, an increase in the gap between the free and official exchange rates cause an increased demand for corn, barley, and soybean meal imports as well. Therefore, to reduce the free and official exchange rates, applying appropriate policies, timely purchase of inputs from global markets and a revision in the business process of livestock and poultry institutions are suggested.

Over recent years, environmental sustainability, agriculture and food security have been among the most important topics of global attention. Sustainability is based on economic, social and ecological factors. Sustainable agriculture requires a sustainable environment. Therefore, the main agricultural factors are soil, weather, water resources and nutrients, among which the protection of water and soil resources is more important than others for the efficiency of farmers. Although, water resources are essential for the functioning of any economy, they continue to be degraded at an unsustainable rate. This is true for the developed and developing countries due to the nature of their chosen path of economic growth and development. Both surface and underground water have characteristics of public goods, because the people who use them do not pay for their scarcity (whether in terms of quality or quantity) and only pay the cost of private extraction (private goods). When the cost of scarcity is not recognized, it leads to further extraction and pollution of resources and thus, inefficient use of them over time and space. The choice experiment (CE) method has its theoretical basis in Lancaster's consumer choice model (Lancaster, 1966) and its econometric basis in random utility theory (Luce, 1959; McFadden 1973). Lancaster suggested that consumers get their satisfaction not only with simply goods and services but also with their attributes. According to Lancaster, demand is defined over the characteristics of goods, rather than goods themselves. In any CE exercise, respondents are thus asked to choose between the different bundles of goods- which could in fact be alternative designs of policy to provide such goods- described in terms of their characteristics (or attributes) and the levels these take. Offered choices defined in terms of these attributes, utility maximizing individuals will choose the alternative that gives the highest level of utility. According to the theory of random utility, the utility of a choice includes a deterministic component (V) and an error component (e), which is independent of the deterministic part and follows a predetermined distribution. This error component shows that predictions cannot be made with confidence. The choices that are made between alternatives are a function of the probability that the utility associated with a particular option J (for example, the groundwater pollution reduction program option) is greater than other options:  Therefore, the desired data of this study were obtained through face-to-face interviews and the questionnaires filled out by 108 farmers of Dasht Abbas Plain aquifer in Ilam province of Iran in 2022. The study results showed that the willingness to pay was influenced by socio-economic characteristics (including the level of education, age, household size, and environmental orientation) and other factors such as the use of well water. Therefore, to improve the efficiency and universality of the policy, the willingness and heterogeneity of public preferences should be fully considered in policy formulation. Also, based on the results obtained from the mixed logit model and hidden class, the compensatory surpluses of the aquifer improvement scenarios were specified and calculated. The willingness-to-pay values increased from the moderate improvement scenario of the aquifer environment to the optimal improvement scenario. The compensatory surpluses for the desired improvement of the features were estimated about 980 and 1380 thousand IRI rials per hectare per month, respectively. This research showed that the reduction of desertification, the reduction of reeds and the protection of water quality were all determinants of alternative policy plans.Conclusion and Suggestions: This research showed that reducing desertification, protecting water quality, reducing reeds as well as the number of protected rural jobs were all important determinants of farmers' priorities for determining alternative policy. In this context, the results of this research can guide policy makers in improving the design and creation of agricultural environmental risk reduction policies with the social support of farmers; in addition, the evaluation of the heterogeneity of preferences provides a positive perspective for increasing the social adoption of such programs by farmers, especially that the adoption of such programs is of great importance for the study area. Social support for restoring ecosystems that are being destroyed can also be increased by extending the environmental behaviors by people. Increasing public awareness about the importance of environmental behavior increases social self-confidence and as a result, strengthens social support for improving the quality of environment. Based on the study results, the most important suggestion to be presented is to encourage farmers who use well water to continue using underground water and other farmers are also encouraged to use well water by granting them free well licenses or, if they have a well, by using the necessary incentives (purification device) in order to effectively contribute to the improvement of the environment of the Dasht Abbas Plain aquifer.

Designing incentive packages for the implementation of the cultivation pattern by farmers is one of the policies of the agricultural sector which plays an important role in providing food security. This study was conducted in Razavi Khorasan province as one of the hubs of producing agricultural products in Iran. To identify the required incentives and to design incentive packages, the Delphi method and the opinions of farmers and agricultural experts were used in three stages. In order to carry out this research, the opinions of 34 specialists and experts in the field of agriculture and 158 agricultural operators of the province were used to design incentive packages. According to the obtained results, three incentive packages including "pricing policy for basic agricultural products and guaranteed purchase", "management-infrastructure" and "subsidy" were designed and provided to farmers, which were chosen by 41.1, 32.9 and 26 percent of farmers, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that farmers are risk-averse and the government can take a big step in operationalizing the crop pattern by farmers with the policy of guaranteed purchase in proportion to the market balance for the stability and increase of farmers' income as well as creating balance in production and attention to the required infrastructure.

In today's competitive business environment, gaining a competitive edge and achieving greater success compared to competitors is very important for business owners and enterprises. Managers are constantly seeking ways to identify the competitive environment and analyze the conditions of competitors and the market to achieve higher levels of performance. Among the effective strategies for enhancing the organization's capacity to more accurately analyze the conditions of competitors and the market situation, gain competitive advantage, new markets and emerging business opportunities, is the utilization of competitive intelligence. Competitive intelligence, as a process of receiving and analyzing information related to the external environment of the organization and the activities of competitors, suppliers, customers, new technologies, markets, products and services can influence the programs, decision-making and operations of the organization and significantly impact its performance and success. Over the past few decades, agricultural production units and the food industry have faced pressures from increasing population and food demand, climate changes, energy shortages, and the necessity to consider sustainability criteria. This situation has continually exposed them to variable and uncertain environmental conditions. This highlights the need to change policies and approaches of these units to better adapt to the competitive production and trade environment and changing environmental conditions using competitive intelligence tools and techniques. Among the agricultural production units, processing and supplementary industries play a crucial role in producing and processing diverse food products, improving the storage capacity of food, preventing agricultural production waste, increasing productivity and value added in agriculture, creating employment, and achieving food security. Therefore, they hold a strategic position in agricultural development. Considering the growing capacities in the food industry and processing units in the agricultural sector in Lorestan province of Iran, this study aimed at examining the competitive intelligence among managers of small-scale processing and supplementary agricultural units and as well as elucidating and analyzing how the competitive intelligence dimensions impact the performance of the mentioned units. In this study, the dimensions of competitive intelligence among the managers of agricultural processing industries and their relationship with the performance of their businesses were examined. Thus, this study could be considered as descriptive-correlational research conducted through survey studies. The statistical population of the study included managers of active agricultural processing and supplementary industries in Lorestan province (201 people). Based on Cochran's sample size determination formula, 132 people were determined as the sample size, which was increased to 140 people for greater assurance. These managers were randomly selected as the research sample and surveyed for this study. The independent variables examined in this study were competitor intelligence, market intelligence, technological intelligence, organizational structural intelligence, and social-strategic intelligence. The study results indicated that the managers had a relative understanding of each of competitive dimensions. The average score in all five dimensions of competitive intelligence was above average. If competitive intelligence was assumed to encompass information related to the status of competitors, customers, suppliers, technologies, environments, and potential business relations, the managers in this study could be considered as individuals with moderate to high levels of knowledge and information in areas related to competitors, technology, market, customers, and the social business environment. This level of competitive intelligence can aid them in proper evaluation and strategic decision-making, which is likely to improve business unit performance. The research model's evaluation showed that the model, including the five competitive intelligence dimensions (technological intelligence, market intelligence, competitor intelligence, social-strategic intelligence, and organizational structural intelligence), had relatively good overall fit, explaining 49 percent of the variance in the performance of the processing industries.Conclusion and Suggestions: Based on the results of the research, it can be said that managers' intelligent understanding of market conditions and changes, and related variables such as customers, producers, and suppliers, play a key role in business success. Undoubtedly, unions and associations related to these enterprises can play a fundamental role in comprehensively enhancing the capacity and level of competitive intelligence among managers in the province, thus improving the quantitative and qualitative performance of these units. Training and empowering managers about the dimensions of competitive intelligence for entering scientific business management processes and understanding that gaining a competitive advantage is not just about understanding competitors and market conditions. It should also include awareness of social environment conditions and opportunities, the ability to innovate in both soft and hard technologies, creating efficient strategies, and exploiting opportunities for organizational structural renewal. These should always be a focus for managers, enabling them to gain valuable opportunities for competitive advantage, performance improvement, and market leadership.

Inflation is one of the major economic problems in developing countries as well as emerging economies. Therefore, ensuring stable prices is always one of the main goals of the monetary authorities and indeed the government. Meanwhile, inflation is particularly important in the food sector, because the vital and constant human need for food increases the vulnerability of low-income people and makes them face a serious challenge in meeting their life needs. Factors affecting food inflation can be examined from two viewpoints: structuralists and monetarists. Structuralists believe that real impulses in certain sectors of the economy cause price increases in that sector, and this issue is especially important in developing countries. According to this view, factors such as the elasticity of the supply of agricultural products, currency restrictions, wages and high prices in the food sector result in inflation and its sustainability. On the other hand, monetarists believe that monetary policies cause inflation in various sectors, including the food sector. These policies are carried out in order to regulate the value of money, control the interest rate and influence the level of inflation and social employment. In general, monetary policies can have direct and indirect effects on food inflation in a country by adjusting factors such as interest rates, currency value, and the amount of money in circulation. Azamzadeh Shooroki & Khalilian (2010) investigated the effect of monetary policies on the food price index in Iran using the ARDL model. The results of this study also showed that there was a long-term relationship between monetary policy variables and the food price index, and the food price index had a positive relationship with the interest rate, liquidity and exchange rate. Ghahremanzadeh et al. (2016) investigated the effect of macroeconomic variables on food inflation in Iran using the Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM). The results of this study showed that in the long term, the added value shock of the agricultural sector had a negative and significant effect and the amount of money had a positive and significant effect on food inflation. In his study, De Haan (2020) examined the effect of monetary policies on inflation and expected inflation. In this study, using an econometric model, it was shown that both people's information and monetary policies could affect expected inflation. Accordingly, this study would be able to fill this research gap by using the vector autoregression approach with time-varying coefficients known as Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto-Regression (TVP-VAR) model and provide policy makers with practical results of dynamic changes in the effect of macro variables on food inflation. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the impact of macroeconomic variables on food inflation. Macroeconomic variables considered in the model of this study included economic growth rate (Pishbahar & Baghestani, 2014), interest rate, liquidity growth and investment (Ismaya & Anugrah, 2018) and exchange rate. One of the methods that is used more recently in economic literature is the TVP-VAR model. The difference between this model and the models of fixed VAR coefficients is that it allows changes in the parameters over time and has the ability to flex the coefficients according to changes in conditions, structural failures and cyclical changes; therefore, it will bring more accurate results. The initial VAR model introduced by Sims (1980) was one of the important models for investigating the relationship between various economic variables using shock-reaction functions.  In order to test the unit root, considering the seasonality of the investigated data, the HEGY test was used to check the reliability of the variables. Based on the seasonal unit root test of HEGY, for all variables, despite the intercept elevation and the trend, the null hypothesis of the existence of a seasonal unit root is rejected and therefore, the seasonal data used in this study are at a stable level. The results of the graphs related to the estimation of the coefficients of macroeconomic variables and food inflation in the model make it clear that the coefficients are not the same over time and for all cases except for investment and food inflation itself, different parameters are found during the studied time period. In other words, these results confirm that relying on constant parameters over time obtained from the usual VAR approach in such a case has the ability to estimate only the average of the changes of the variables affecting food inflation. This issue highlights the importance of using the TVP-VAR model in analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on food inflation. After estimating the model and testing the parameters, point shock reaction analysis (shock reaction analysis at different points in time) was used to investigate the dynamic effects of macroeconomic variables on food inflation. In general, three intervals with different lengths were chosen to reflect the short-term, medium-term and long-term response changes of the dependent variable and the independent variable. The noteworthy point in this graph is that although this self-motivated positive influence decreases from the second period onwards, it does not disappear. This result is consistent with the steady increase in food inflation in Iran's economy during the period under review. The relationship between investment and inflation can occur through two supply and demand channels, the first channel leads to an increase in inflation and the second channel leads to its decrease. The important point is that according to the findings of this study, the positive effect of the exchange rate increase on food inflation has an upward trend and does not disappear over time. The consequences of the increase in the exchange rate on the increase in the price of imported goods, as well as creating incentives for food exports, can be among the reasons for this issue.Conclusion and Suggestions: According to the literature on the subject, among the key variables affecting food prices are economic growth, exchange rate, interest rate, investment and liquidity growth. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the effect of these macroeconomic variables on food inflation. For this purpose, seasonal data from 2001 to 2020 and the TVP-VAR model were used. The results showed that the effect of estimated parameters on the food inflation was varied over time; therefore, the results obtained from the TVP-VAR model are superior to other economic models that do not consider the dynamics of coefficients. Among the advantages of this method is the possibility of point analysis of impact reaction. The study results showed that economic growth had a negative effect on food inflation, and this confirms the contribution of economic growth to increasing food production and supply. Based on this, it is suggested that the improvement of food production infrastructures, including technology infrastructures in agriculture, storage and processing industries, should be taken into consideration by policymakers. This issue can be emphasized according to the results of this study on the effect of increasing investment on reducing food inflation in the long term. On the other hand, the results showed that an increase in interest rates also would lead to an increase in food inflation. The root of this issue can also be traced to the high share of financial costs in the food production and supply sector. Based on this, it is suggested that the policy makers provide access to food producers, including farmers and industries active in food production, to low-interest credits and capital. Finally, this result is important that the increase in food inflation at one point in time has a stable increasing effect on food inflation in future periods. Therefore, the policy maker should be aware of the impact of macroeconomic variables on food inflation and give it double priority considering its dependence on food security and community health.

Wheat, as the most important product in the food basket of Iranians, providing more than 40 percent of the daily energy of each person, is an irreplaceable and plays important role in cultivation pattern. Due to the position of this crop in food security, investigating the effects of various factors affecting the yield as well as estimating the potential yield and yield gap can significantly help the planning ability of agricultural sector managers. 

In this research, World Food Studies (WOFOST) model was used to estimate the potential yield of irrigated wheat in Qazvin Plain of Iran. The meteorological statistics were converted into the standard unit required by the model using mathematical models, and the field observations were used to calculate yield gap, and also ARCGIS was used for yield gap and actual yield maps generation. 

The model performance was statistically evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) t-test, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE/RMSEn), Maximum Error (ME) and coefficient of Efficiency (E). The results showed that the WOFOST model had a sufficient efficiency for predicting the concerned indicators. The average potential yield of irrigated wheat in the studied area (2013-2022) was about 8.6 tons per hectare and the yield gap was 51 percent.

Finally, the WOFOST model was evaluated to be accurate and efficient for estimating the potential yield of irrigated wheat in the studied area, and among the known influencing factors on yield, annual rainfall and soil quality effect on potential yield achievement significantly, also the production gap reducing. Therefore, in the future breeding programs for wheat, focusing on cultivars with higher water use efficiency and higher fertilizer use efficiency can ensure a sustainable food security in Iran.