فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیست و چهارم شماره 4 (زمستان 1403)

The world has suffered severe environmental degradation in the last two decades. The effects of ecological deviations and environmental destruction are alarming and cause concern for stakeholders and environmentalists. These problems have led to environmental disasters such as extreme weather changes and rising sea levels. For this reason, countries are trying to address environmental crises and economic growth at the same time. Basically, it is believed that the destruction of ecosystems in many countries is the result of human actions, including rapid industrialization, population growth, expansion of economic activities, urbanization, and widespread consumption of fossil fuels. Undoubtedly, one of the main factors of climate change and environmental degradation is the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) caused by economic activities. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth has attracted the attention of researchers and policymakers to reduce carbon dioxide emissions without affecting economic growth. Achieving this goal may be difficult, but studies have included various factors in the growth-carbon dioxide relationship, such as different energy sources, technological innovations, population, financial development, urbanization, and trade openness. In addition to the factors mentioned above, there is a need to assess other relevant factors such as human capital for effective policy development. Despite the extensive role of human capital in promoting energy efficiency and economic growth, by skilled workers in the production process and the preference of educated households to use home appliances with high energy efficiency, few researchers have included this factor in the existing literature. Education is considered as one of the most important human capital investments and plays a vital role in the process of economic growth. Education, at the micro level, affects the future income flow of people, and at the macro level, it is thought that a workforce with better education increases the stock of human capital in the economy. Increased human capital in turn can have positive externalities, such as lower crime or improved health outcomes, which are socially desirable and likely to have positive effects on productivity. In fact, it is the existence of such positive externalities that provides economic justification for governments to support education. It is believed that public spending on education and health will lead to improvement of human capital, reduction of poverty, economic growth and development, and reduction of pollution.
Theoretical studies emphasize different mechanisms through which education affects economic growth. (1) Education increases the human capital of the labor force, thereby increasing labor productivity and shifting growth toward a higher equilibrium level of output. (2) In endogenous growth theories, education increases the economy's capacity to innovate new technologies, products, and processes, thereby promoting growth.
In the environmental field, improving human capital can reduce the use of fossil fuel in the production process. The motive of this research is to understand the effect of public education expenditure shocks on economic growth and environmental quality in Iran.

To achieve the goal of the research, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and Bayesian approach have been used. In this regard, observable variables, gross domestic product, private consumption, investment, government expenditure and the gross growth rate of money have been used in the period of 2004 to 2021.

The results indicate that an increase in public education expenses by one standard deviation increases the marginal efficiency of private education expenses. Because private and public education expenses complement each other and entered the model in the form of a Cobb-Douglas function. Therefore, education hours, investment in education and subsequently, human capital increased. The increase in human capital led to an increase in production, economic growth and a decrease in inflation. The decrease in inflation led to an increase in the real wages of the workforce and finally the desire of the household to increase the supply of labor. Consumption increased in response to an increase in real wages. Also, the behavior of investment is very similar to the behavior of consumption and production, but its changes are more intense than other expenses. Therefore, it can be said that the shock of public education expenses has affected the performance of the economy like an expansionary impulse and has improved the economic conditions. In the environmental sector, with the increase in human capital, economic growth has been improved and this has led to an increase in air pollution and a decrease in environmental quality.

In justifying these results, we can point to the weak institutional quality in Iran, that despite the huge amount of human capital investment, there is no necessary effectiveness in the environmental sector, and this is a confirmation that Iran is in the early stages of economic development. As a policy recommendation, in addition to paying attention to education and its role in the development of human capital as a long-term investment, improving the quality of institutions should be considered

Trade is one of the most important factors for the economic progress of countries, which has become feasible with the globalization of business. In addition, the significant increase in energy consumption after the industrial revolution, aimed at improving the quality of human life, has led to increasing environmental degradation worldwide. Although economic growth is one of the main goals of countries, developed economies are more concerned about its environmental consequences. Unfortunately, it seems that developing countries often overlook environmental protection in their pursuit of desired economic growth.
Green technology is a form of technology that aims to minimize the environmental damage caused by energy consumption by increasing energy efficiency. Examples of this technology include renewable energy sources, energy efficiency measures, waste management, environmental monitoring systems, and electric vehicles, all of which contribute to significantly improving the quality of environment. Green technology and its positive consequences serve as a turning point for mitigating environmental damage and, most importantly, preventing further harm. It has proven to be highly effective and requires the collective efforts of all countries to achieve their economic goals while preserving and expanding their trade relationships, ultimately bringing their technological levels closer together.

This research aims to investigate the technology gap and green technology and its effects on international trade between developed countries (Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, the United States, China) and developing countries (Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan). The study utilizes the gravity model and STATA software, analyzing the coefficients obtained from this model to examine how green technology development can have a positive impact on both environment and business. The data used in this analysis spans during 2008 - 2019 and is sourced from UNCTAD and WORLD BANK.

Based on the estimated results of this study, it has been determined that in developing countries, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the first country had a significant and positive impact on their trade. Therefore, a 1% increase in their GDP leads to an 0.84% increase in their trade. On the other hand, the impact of GDP for the second country is positive but not significant.
Furthermore, in developed countries, a positive and significant effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on international trade is observed. A 1% increase in GDP for this group of countries leads to a 13.1% increase in trade for the first country and a 9.4% increase for the second country. Therefore, it can be concluded that an increase in production capacity creates greater capabilities for both groups of countries to enhance exports and trade.
The geographical distance has a significant negative impact on trade in both groups of selected countries. Therefore, a 1% increase in geographical distance leads to a 0.3% decrease in trade for developed countries and a 0.5% decrease in trade for developing countries. As a result, countries tend to prefer trading with their neighboring and geographically closer countries due to economic advantages, especially in transportation sector.
Technology gap has significant negative implications for developed countries and significant positive implications for developing countries. This means that with a one percent increase in technology gap between these countries, the trade of developing countries increases by 0.45 percent and the trade of developed countries decreases by 0.19 percent. Technology gap is considered a trade barrier in developed countries, while it is seen as an advantage in developing countries.
The impact of green technology is positive and significant in both selected groups of countries. One percent increase in green technology transformation results in a 0.91 percent and 1.91 percent increase in trade for developed and developing countries, respectively. This indicates that the adoption of green technology not only does not hinder international trade but can also strengthen trade relations in the green pathway.

Transformation of green technology has had a significant and positive impact on trade for both groups of selected countries. This indicates that green technology has found a suitable position in advancing international trade for these countries.
Considering that green technology has a significant impact on development issues and the importance of preserving a clean and sustainable environment for future generations, as well as in line with the findings of this research, governments and societies should invest more in greener and more complex sectors. They should enhance their technical skills and develop the necessary technological infrastructure for the growth of green industries. Additionally, the international community should expand the support for emerging green industries in developing economies by strengthening global trade regulations, particularly through increased efforts by developing countries to acquire this technology.
According to the results obtained, the impact of technology gap on international trade among developing countries is positive and significant. This means that as the technology distance increases, bilateral trade between these countries also increases. Therefore, the mentioned countries, due to their lower level of technology, have a strong inclination to import technology and engage in trade with each other.
Based on the findings of this research, which identifies the technology gap as a stimulating and influential factor in increasing trade among these groups of countries, it is suggested to prioritize the advancement of technology for all countries. It is recommended to maintain a certain level of technology gap in developing countries while simultaneously pursuing alternative policies to harness its positive impact on trade

Water crisis is considered as one of the biggest challenges that most regions of the world, especially Iran, are facing. Indiscriminate surface and underground water extraction and successive droughts have limited water resources. Population growth has also led to an increase in demand and consumption in the water chain and food industry (especially agricultural products) and emphasizes the necessity of using virtual water as an efficient approach.
According to the report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) in 2022, half of the world population faces severe water shortages at least for part of the year. Due to the centrality of the severe lack of water resources in the world, the first major United Nations conference on water was held in 2023, and in general, the decade from 2018 to 2028 was named as the "International Decade of Water for Sustainable Development". Although the water cycle changes are often evaluated only based on physical water flows and its reserves, this method is not effective on a larger scale and in relation to the global water cycle, and it also emphasizes the need to pay attention to "virtual water" flows which should be considered in addition to the physical flows of water.

In order to design the patterns examined in this research, the gravity pattern has been used. This model is mainly used for the analysis of environmental effects in international trade, as it allows the consideration of variables with potential impact such as income, population, geographical distances and institutional factors in an economic framework. The gravity model was applied in this research in order to estimate the research patterns and since the current research has faced the problem of zero in the independent variables as well as zero imports from trading countries for some products, using the estimator method Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) was also used. It is worth mentioning here that PPML is a suitable method to solve the problems mentioned above.

According to the investigations, Iran's virtual water trade balance has a positive relationship with the bilateral exchange rate and a negative relationship with the distance and population ratio, and for the variable of GDP, this relationship is positive for other products except watermelon. Iran is also an exporter of watermelon and pistachio products and an importer of virtual water for two products of wheat and rice, and an exporter of virtual water for date products due to the fact that it is only for export. In general, it is considered a virtual water exporter. The existence of quantitative and qualitative problems in the country’s water resources and the location of Iran in an arid and semi-arid region and facing water shortage crises, is necessary to pay attention to the demand for water at the macro level and formulate basic plans for the sustainable use of water resources. Therefore, the use of virtual water trade approach by countries shows a favorable performance in relation to useful management measures. This research, while using the gravity model and the PPML estimator, studies the factors affecting the bilateral trade balance of virtual water in five major agricultural products of Iran (wheat, rice, dates, pistachios, and watermelon) in terms of sustainable development approach.

In this research, bilateral virtual water trade about rice, watermelon, dates, wheat, and pistachio products between Iran and its major agricultural partners has been investigated. Examining the export and import data of agricultural products shows that these products are important and strategic products which include the largest amount of export and import of Iran's agriculture and the largest volume of virtual water trade. Therefore, the obtained results can be an example of the country's virtual water business. According to the investigations, Iran's virtual water trade balance has a positive relationship with the bilateral exchange rate and a negative relationship with the distance and population ratio, and for the variable of GDP, this relationship is positive for other products except watermelon. Also, the results indicate that virtual water import is more for wheat and rice products and virtual water export is more for pistachio and watermelon products. Regarding the date product, water extraction is relatively less than other studied products, and since the product is exported and the import level is very small, virtual water export is higher. In general, Iran can be considered as an exporter of virtual water over the period.
Considering the existing conditions, Iran should act in order to achieve sustainable development by reducing virtual water exports and saving water resources. Since access to water resources and its optimal use and food production are among the benefits of human societies, sustainable development is considered an excellent approach that emphasizes the necessity of water resources management and its impact on human societies

Based on empirical studies, in addition to the natural resources curse and the negative impact of natural resources income on the economic growth and development in resource-rich countries, some of these countries face various other issues. These issues include political and social problems, high levels of poverty and inequality, low levels of education, economic growth fluctuations, low institutional quality, and political instability (Sachs & Warner, 2001). In this context, one of the challenges in resource-rich countries, especially in developing countries, when compared to countries without natural resources, is the low level of financial development. Financial development has failed to play an effective role in the economic growth of these countries (Albadawi and Soto, 2012; Gelb, 2010; Samargandi et al., 2014; Frenkel, 2012).  On the other hand, considering studies such as those by Pendergas et al., (2011), in most resource-rich countries that have managed to overcome the resource curse, a reasonable level of financial development is observed. Therefore, the first question that arises is whether there is a relationship between financial development and the abundance of natural resources in these countries. Given the role of the financial system in the optimal allocation of resources, what impact will the financial system have on the abundance of natural resources in resource-rich countries?Iran is a country abundant in oil resources that has struggled to overcome the challenges and obstacles on the path to development, such as unemployment and economic growth fluctuations. Issues related to natural resources still persist in this country. Given the importance of the relationship between the financial sector and the abundance of natural resources for necessary policymaking on the path to economic growth and development, this study aims to examine and investigate the relationship between the abundance of natural resources and financial development in Iran using various financial development indicators and different econometric methods.

In order to investigate and empirically analyze the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between variables, this research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounding test approach. The ARDL Bounding test method was developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). This method offers advantages over other conventional and previous cointegration methods, such as the Johansen and Toda-Yamamoto approaches. Some of its advantages include applicability regardless of considering the order of cointegration between variables, its ability to handle cases where variables are I (0) or I (1), suitability for limited sample sizes, obtaining efficient estimates without the risk of over-specification of the long-run model relationships, and presenting a reduced-form single-equation form rather than a systemic one for the long-run relationship.The ARDL model estimates the short-term and long-term linear relationship between variables and cannot estimate non-linear relationships between the variables. Therefore, in this study, considering the possibility of a non-linear and asymmetric relationship between resource rents and financial development, the non-linear ARDL model, developed by Shin et al. in 2014, was employed to estimate the model. The NARDL model is a specific form of the ARDL model developed by Pesaran et al., (2001). It allows for the investigation of asymmetry in the long-term and short-term relationships between variables. The advantage of the NARDL method over other cointegration techniques is its superior performance in models with limited observations. Furthermore, this approach is applicable when the explanatory variables in the model are endogenous (Alam and Quazy, 2003).

  Results indicate that impact of natural resource abundance on the banking development index is not significant in the short term, while the lagged values of natural resources have a positive and significant impact on the banking development index in Iran. Considering the long-term estimation of the model, it can be concluded that the effect of natural resource abundance or, in other words, resource rents on banking sector development in Iran is positive and significant. Based on this result, the hypothesis of resource curse in the banking sector during the examined period in Iran is confirmed. Beck (2011) found that in natural resources rich countries, banks have better capitalization and profitability, but they provide fewer credits to the private sector and have less inclination towards financial development. Therefore, it appears that due to the bank-oriented nature of the financial system in Iran and the substantial injection of oil resources into banks, it has managed to foster the development of this sector.The results of estimating the stock market development model indicate that natural resource abundance has a positive impact on stock market development in both the short and long terms, although it is not statistically significant. Therefore, it is not possible to make a clear statement about the presence or absence of the resource curse in the stock market. Based on studies like Asif et al. (2020) and Ali et al. (2022), the inclusion of various companies related to natural resources in the stock market can help finance these companies in their high-cost extraction and refining operations. Consequently, it can create various job opportunities and boost economic activities, leading to economic growth and development. Therefore, income derived from natural resources through an efficient stock market can contribute to economic growth.The impact of natural resource abundance on the overall financial development index in the long term is positive but not statistically significant. Therefore, the hypothesis of the resource curse in Iran is not confirmed. Considering that the Iranian financial system is influenced by the banking system, and resource rents have been confirmed in the banking sector, this result can be justified as indicative of the greater flow of oil revenues into the Iranian banking system. However, this result may also indicate the dominant role of the government in the allocation of natural resource revenues and the weakness of the private sector and the capital market in the proper allocation of these revenues. The results of estimating the overall financial development index, which is obtained by combining stock market development and banking development, highlight the importance of financial integration and the utilization of the entire financial system's capacity to transform resource rents into a resource blessing.Top of Form.

Based on the empirical results, the hypothesis of the presence of resource cures in the banking sector in Iran was confirmed, given the significant positive relationship between banking sector development and natural resource abundance during the study period. However, regarding the resource curse in the stock market, it is not possible to make a clear statement due to the insignificance of the coefficients.According to the estimation of the NARDL model and the significant positive impact of positive shocks from natural resource rents on the banking development index on one hand, and the negative (although insignificant) impact of negative shocks on the other hand, the results of the NARDL model can be seen as confirming the findings of the ARDL model. Therefore, the hypothesis of resource blessing in the banking sector is cautiously confirmed based on this model.In the case of the stock market, the NARDL results also do not provide conclusive evidence regarding the hypothesis of a resource curse in Iran's stock market due to the insignificance of the coefficients related to resource rents in the estimation of the stock market development index.The results of the NARDL estimation in the overall financial development index model indicate that positive shocks from resource rents have a significant positive impact on the overall financial development, while negative shocks have a negative impact, although they are not statistically significant. Considering these results, the dominant role of the banking system in Iran's financial system is confirmed, and thus, special attention from the government to the capital market as one of the most effective components of the financial system seems necessary.Top of Form

The conventional notion of the permanent income hypothesis is that individuals aim to smooth their consumption over time, demonstrating resistance to fluctuations in income. This foundational concept assumes that individuals utilize savings or credit when faced with expected income changes or temporary income shocks, preserving their ultimate well-being. However, empirical evidence challenges this hypothesis, revealing that consumers often exhibit responsiveness to income changes, both expected and temporary. This phenomenon is called "excess sensitivity of consumption". Various factors underpin this apparent excess sensitivity of consumption, encompassing demographic dynamics, labor market decisions, reliance on aggregated data, superior information within households, income measurement inaccuracies, and liquidity constraints.

This study employs the Panel-IV method to estimate the coefficient of excess sensitivity of consumption. It utilizes two financial development indicators, namely access to financial services and financial depth, to evaluate their impact on this coefficient. The significance of this investigation lies in the Iranian economic history, which witnessed financial development in the late 1990s, followed by a financial downturn. The data are derived from household income and expenditure surveys conducted by the Iranian Statistical Center. The analysis encompasses the years 2004 to 2020. These surveys incorporate data on various aspects of household’s financial information, including the amount and number of loans received and essential details about their employment status.
Due to the cross-sectional nature of the data, it is imperative to use a pseudo-panel approach, providing several advantages. First, it eliminates the individual-specific measurement errors. Second, it mitigates the issues arising from the short time series data, which can lead to estimation errors. Previous research has estimated the coefficient of excess sensitivity of consumption. However, this study contributes by examining the effects of financial development on consumption smoothing in the Iranian economy. Notably, previous research in Iran focused solely on estimating the coefficient of excess sensitivity of consumption without investigating the influence of financial development.

The findings indicate the excess sensitivity of consumption coefficient is 0.266 for the Iranian households. In practical terms, a 10% expected increase in income results in a 2.66% increase in consumption. This finding indicates liquidity constraints faced by the Iranian households. Such constraints may manifest as limitations on borrowing amounts or high interest rates, leading individuals to opt for non-borrowing. The examination of financial development reveals a negative and significant relationship between improved financial access and depth and the coefficient of excess sensitivity of consumption. Specifically, a 10% improvement in the average loan amount and loan-to-income ratio (financial depth indicators) results in 12.5% and 13% reductions, respectively, in the coefficient of excess sensitivity of consumption. Additionally, a 10% enhancement in the average number of loans received by households (financial access indicator) leads to an impressive 20.5% reduction in the coefficient of excess sensitivity of consumption.

This study challenges the traditional concept of permanent income hypothesis while emphasizing the importance of understanding excess sensitivity of consumption in economic research. Furthermore, it underscores the role of financial development, characterized by improved access to credit and financial services, in diminishing households' vulnerability to income fluctuations. These results hold substantial implications for policymakers and researchers alike, offering insights into addressing income volatility and its effects on household consumption in Iran and similar economies

The importance of poverty and dealing with that is so critical that poverty alleviation is the first goal in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, it is essential to be aware of the poverty dynamics and the mechanisms involved to influence such parameters. The purpose of this research is to identify the factors affecting poverty in Iran and analyzing the interactive mechanisms of the factors that cause poverty in the country. This study emphasizes the fact that knowing the factors affecting poverty and the mechanisms of influencing these factors can have a significant impact on alleviating poverty.

The current study is applied research in terms of purpose, and analytical-exploratory research in terms of information analysis. The data collection tool is semi-structured and in-depth interviews. Since the purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting poverty in
Iran from the point of view of experts on Iran's economic, social and political issues, the samples were selected and interviewed using theoretical sampling under the snowball method. By conducting 16 interviews, the research reached theoretical saturation. In order to ensure that the subsequent interviews do not add new information to the previous findings, 4 more interviews were conducted, but no new information was added to the previous findings. Therefore, theoretical saturation was ensured by conducting 20 interviews and the target study sample was 20 cases. After identifying experts and conducting deep and semi-structured interviews, thematic analysis method was applied. This analysis is the process of identifying themes in qualitative data. In this method, a suitable conceptual model is obtained using qualitative data obtained from interviews. It should be noted that the MAXQDA software is used for coding the interviews. Finally, the specified codes were categorized and analyzed in the form of factors affecting poverty in the country. Also, in order to show the complex relationships between factors affecting poverty in iran in the form of main and sub-themes, a qualitative dynamic approach and feedback loops were used in the Vensim 6.4E software environment. In this study, an approach is needed that can reflect the relationship of factors affecting poverty in its formation. Therefore, the relationships between the main and sub-themes extracted from the thematic analysis of expert interviews are depicted with a dynamic view. This method is a tool to show cause and effect relationships about a problem in society. This approach maps the relationships of a set of variables involved in a system. The relationship between system variables is displayed using causal loops.

In recent decades, despite the fact that the debate on poverty and poverty alleviation strategies has been raising in the world, and in some countries, basic measures have been taken to reduce income poverty and multi-dimensional poverty have taken place, not only has the situation not improved in Iran, but the country is facing huge crises in this field.
In this study, the factors affecting poverty in Iran have been presented in the form of four main themes of political, cultural, production and educational structure.
Cultural structure: cultural structure is a force that determines, realizes, facilitates and empowers or inhibits, binds or hinders action. Cultural structure identified in the interviews has been classified into two categories: the mental paradigms of actors (people and officials) and the culture of poverty.
Political structure: the elements related to the political structure identified among the experts' interviews have had a significant effect on poverty in Iran by reducing economic growth and creating inequality. These elements include: limited access orders, the presence of subordinate institutions in the economy, political isolation, lack of guarantee of property rights, lack of transparency in access to information, lack of freedom of expression in the press, rent, lack of a strong mechanism for monitoring, weak labor unions, government unresponsiveness, weak local government, not believing in law and legislation, and finally, the lack of education in demanding in schools and universities.
Educational structure: in relation to the interaction between education and poverty, it can be acknowledged that without adequate education and appropriate for the society, the individual and the society are limited to a poor life. Sen states that inadequate education in itself can be considered a form of poverty in many societies.
Production structure: the elements related to the production structure that were extracted from coding are: false beliefs due to unfavorable conditions, weakness in production culture, non-guaranteeing of property rights, political isolation, erosion of social capital, elimination of comparative advantage in production, corrupt monetary and banking system, presence of institutions subordinate to power in the economy, lack of written program in production, centralization in the center of the country and the environment of rentier economy.

Contrary to the opinion of many officials and people of the society, poverty is not a simple and linear problem, but a complex and systemic disease. There is no specific problem in a system and all problems are related. According to the aggregated model and the self-reinforcing causal relationship, to break the causal relationships, planned policies in the form of main and sub-themes are suggested as follows:Ensuring property rights for a large part of society, so that different people are motivated to invest and participate.

In managed floating exchange rate systems, one of the important issues facing monetary policymakers is defining the exchange rate corridor and committing to it. In developing countries (with a low flow of foreign capital and limited access to international financial markets), it is difficult to follow committed policies. Iran is not only an oil-exporting country but also has limited access to export earnings due to sanctions. The central bank is heavily dependent on the government policies. Consequently, these causes have led to 5 currency crises since 1991. Therefore, having an early warning system for Iran’s exchange market is essential for monetary policymakers. One of the prominent aspects of this study is the definition of crisis index, which considers not only the direct intervention of the central bank in the exchange market but also both the exchange rate growth and the central bank’s foreign reserve growth rate. Finally, using the Probit approach, an early warning system with a low noise-to-signal ratio is proposed.

Quarterly data from 1990 to 2023 for Iran and the United States were used in the model. Domestic data represent the real and monetary sectors of Iran’s economy, and U.S. data represent the world economy.
First, using Bai-Perron (1997) and oil revenue as a state variable of the economy, the duration was divided into three periods: low oil revenue, high oil revenue, and sanctions. The random walk equation was estimated.
logoil t =a+b  logoil t-1 + ε t                                                                (1)
Second, for each period, according to Weymark's (1995) model, the exchange market pressure (EMP) and direct intervention indices were calculated. Then the average and standard deviation of both the exchange rate growth and the central bank’s foreign reserve growth rate were calculated.
Third, the situation in each quarter is determined as shown in Tables 1 and 2:Table 1: The situation in each quarter in leaning with the wall intervention type
 
rt≥r-σr
rt<r-σr
Type of intervention:leaning with the wall
Crisis type (1)
Mega-Crisis type (1)
et≥e+σe
Favorable
Ordinary
et<e+σe
Table 2. The situation in each quarter in leaning against the wall intervention type
rt≥r-σr
rt<r-σr
Type of intervention:leaning against the wall
Ordinary
Mega-Crisis type (2)
et≥e+σe
Favorable
Crisis type (2)
et<e+σe
et  is the exchange rate growth, and rt  is the central bank’s foreign reserve growth. e and σe  are the average and standard deviation of the exchange rate growth, respectively. r and σr  are the average and standard deviation of the central bank’s foreign reserve growth, respectively. Ordinary and favorable situations are considered the same. But, the other situations are different.
Fifth, equation 2 was proposed as an early warning system.
CRI t =α+ ß 1 CRI t-3 + ß 2 SCN t + ß 3 COV t + ß 4 FRG t-2 + ß 5 ERG t-2 + ß 6 ERGEN t-2 + ß 7 BFRLiq t-2 + ß 8 GBDLiqG t-2 + ß 9 GDBLiqG t-2 + ß 10 LiqG t-2 + ß 11 GDPG t-2 + ß 12 OilGDP t-2 + ß 13 OilG t-2 + ß 14 USAGDPG t-2 + ß 15 USAInf t-2 + ε t
All variables are I(0). CRIt  is the quarterly situation. SCNt  and COVt  are the dummy variables for sanctions and COVID-19 respectively. The 2 lag variables are:FRG is the central bank's foreign reserve growth. ERG is the exchange rate growth. ERGEN is the deviation of exchange rate growth from its long-term trend. BFRLiq is the ratio of the central bank's foreign reserve to liquidity. GBDliqG is the growth of the ratio of the government budget deficit to liquidity. GDBliqG is the growth of the ratio of the government debt to the central bank to liquidity. LiqG is the liquidity growth. GDPG is the growth of GDP. OilGDP is the ratio of oil revenue to GDP. OilG is the Brent crude oil growth. USAGDPG is the growth of the USA's GDP. USAInf is the USA's CPI.
Sixth, the forecasted variable is compared with the actual. Then, the NSR was calculated. NSR is between [0,1]. The less NSR, the better fitted the forecasted variable.

There were no crisis type 1 and also mega-crises type 1 and 2. Therefore, the situation in each quarter is either crisis type 2 or ordinary. The crises are 1994q1, 1995q2, 2012q1, 2012q4, 2018q3 and q4, 2020q1 to q4, and 2023q1.
The Probit model is:                                                                                                                                (2)
CRI t  = -48.154 - 4.717* CRI t-3 + 1.718* SCN t  + 11.496* COV t  + 2.859* FRG t-2 + 302.002* ERG t-2  - 308.849* ERGEN t-2  - 40.659* BFRLiq t-2  - 36.540* GBDLiqG t-2  + 40.174* GDBLiqG t-2  + 99.098* LiqG t-2 - 14.066* GDPG t-2  + 98.677* OilGDP t-2  - 0.482* OilG t-2 - 4.932* USAGDPG t-2 + 9.820* USAInf t-2 + ε t
The above equation can predict all crises. The NSR is 0.143 which means that the model can good predict the crises.

In this article, in addition to examining the exchange rate seasonal growth and the central bank's foreign reserves' seasonal growth, the central bank's performance in the face of currency crises has been determined. Then, a model to predict currency crises with the Probit approach is also provided. The results show that the central bank and other economic agents do not consider the same seasons as critical. The economic agents expected a crisis in any season in which the sanction is approved, regardless of the time of its implementation. In most of the currency crises, the central bank has aggravated the currency crisis by buying foreign currency to increase its foreign exchange reserves. The crisis period has not exceeded two seasons in all cases except the Corona period. Among the internal variables of the model, the variables of liquidity growth, exchange rate growth, foreign exchange reserve growth, oil income to GDP ratio, and sanctions are effective factors in predicting a currency crisis. GDP growth, the Brent crude oil growth, and the difference in exchange rate growth from the long-term trend are also more effective variables in reducing the possibility of currency crises. The proposed early warning currency crisis system could predict all currency crises. Finally, as a policy recommendation, it is suggested that instead of stabilizing the exchange rate level, the central bank should stabilize the exchange rate growth in the mid-term to increase its credibility among economic agents by reducing the inflationary environment and currency fluctuations

Aim and Introduction:

 Achieving a high GDP requires an answer to the question of the factors that determine GDP. Social progress is one of the important and influential factors on the GDP. The Social Development Index is a scale for measuring social well-being, which is a completely new way of looking at well-being among countries in the world without referring to GDP. On the other hand, considering the fact that economic and social indicators must be improved as preconditions for increased  living standards, which would be only possible in the shadow of economic growth, assumes it as a critical component contributing into improvement of social indicators. In this study, the mutual relationship between social progress index and GDP per capita for selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, during the period of 2012-2021 is investigated. The countries studied in this research are: Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Cameroon, Egypt, Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Tunisia, Turkey and UAE. Since the member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation are developing countries, due to problems such as lack of human skills, inefficiency in production, lack of technological development, as well as the lack of expertise needed to produce and export competitive goods, have not been able to make significant progress in economic growth and development. Therefore, it seems that in these countries, development can be realized with social progress by paying attention to the issue of education and the basic needs of human resources in order to form and develop human capital. Investing more in human power has increased the level of productivity of production factors and technological development, and in this way, it is able to provide the necessary ground for the development of international trade and to achieve higher economic growth.

In this research, the statistics related to social progress and GDP per capita in 27 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which are respectively taken from the social progress index and the World Bank in the years 2012 to 2021, have been used. In order to investigate the relationship between social progress and GDP, the simultaneous equation system approach in the form of the three-stage least square method (3SLS) has been applied` using Stata software. In the application of the system of simultaneous equations, it is necessary to have two recognizability conditions, which include the degree and rank condition. For this purpose, before estimating the model, these conditions have been examined first, and then preliminary tests of the model specification, such as the cross-sectional correlation test in the disturbance component, the unit root test of the combined data, the cointegration and endogeneity test have been performed.

The results of the data estimation over the period showed that in the model of GDP, social progress index, economic freedom and government consumption expenditure have an increasing and significant effect on the GDP per capita of the studied countries. The trade openness variable also has a negative and non-significant effect on GDP per capita. In the model related to the social progress index, the global innovation index, education index and GDP per capita have a positive and significant effect on the social progress index. The urban population variable also has a negative and insignificant effect on the social progress index.

The results of the model estimation show that the social progress index variable in the per capita GDP model has the greatest impact on the per capita GDP among other influencing variables. The contribution of social progress into the performance of the economy and development process can be considered through reducing inequality and poverty, increasing market efficiency, economic growth, reducing costs, increasing the efficiency of human resources and capital, creating economic institutions and organizations and improving their performance, and increasing investment and employment, as well as increasing innovation and technology. The results of the estimation of the social progress index model also show the presence of a positive and significant effect of GDP per capita on the social progress index. In other words, with the increase of GDP per capita, many basic human needs such as nutrition and health care, water, health, shelter and personal safety, which is one of the indicators of social progress, are improved. In addition, in the mentioned model, the education index among other influential variables has more weight in influencing the social progress index. In other words, manpower training improves welfare infrastructure as well as opportunities, which are two dimensions of the social progress index. Finally, according to the results obtained from both models, which confirm the existence of a positive and significant relationship between the social progress index and GDP per capita, it can be concluded that there is a complementary relationship between these two variables

Today, with the expansion of globalization and increased economic competition, capital accumulation has been proposed as one of the main factors of the economic growth process of the countries, which can be provided through domestic or foreign sources. Meanwhile, inadequacy of internal resources and the need for high technical knowledge in some countries that seek economic growth have required a serious approach to this issue. Furthermore, countries with limited domestic resources are not able to expand exports and acquire shares from new markets, and they need stable resources to provide capital and their needs, among which attracting foreign capital is one of the economic solutions. Indirect foreign investment includes investments made by foreign natural and legal entities in the form of buying securities of a financial institution and company and providing them to the host country during a process. Due to the important role of foreign direct investment, the global market for attracting these funds has become really  competitive. Such competition has been formed especially among developing countries due lack of financial resources on the one hand, and the need for achieving rapid development on the other. Therefore, it is crucilaly important to identify the factors affecting the flow of foreign direct investment. As a result, the aim of the present study is to investigate the relationship between foreign investment and crimes committed in 31 provinces of the country during 2001-2021 using panel data regression models and unit root stationarity tests of Levin, Lin and Chu, Im, Pesaran and Shin, Fisher and Fisher.

According to the theoretical foundations of foreign direct investment and crime and the study conducted by Daniele and Marani in 2008, regression model (panel data) and static test have been considered to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment and crime. In other words, in the estimation of regression models in the form of time series, it is critically important to check the stationarity of the variables, and for this purpose, Levin, Lin and Chu, Im, Pesaran and Shin, Fisher and Fisher tests were used in this study. The variables investigated in this study include foreign direct investment as a dependent variable and population variables, GDP per capita, industry index, degree of openness of the regional economy, infrastructure index and crime variable as an independent variable.

The results indicate that the test of the first model shows a negative relationship between foreign direct investment and crime, which is not statistically significant. In other words, with the increase in crime, the power to attract foreign direct investment in each province decreases. The results of the second model indicate that the logarithm of GDP per capita has a negative and significant effect on the entry of foreign direct investment. In other words, with the increase of GDP in each province, the amount of foreign direct investment attraction decreases. In the third model, in addition to the gross domestic product, the logarithm of the investment of exploitation licenses issued in each province as an industry index of each province has been entered into the model, which has a negative and significant effect on foreign direct investment. In the fourth model, the variable related to the country's infrastructure, which in this study is the amount of electricity subscribers of each province, has a positive and significant effect, and by entering the infrastructure variable, the effect of other variables is the same as before. The variable of the degree of openness of the economy in the fifth model shows a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment, and it shows that the more suitable the country has for trade with other countries, the more the desire to invest in the country increases and the more foreign direct investment is attracted. GDP per capita variables and industry index have a negative and significant effect, and the infrastructure variable also has a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment. In final model where the population variable is entered, the results indicate a negative and significant effect of the population on foreign direct investment. In other words, with the increase in population, the power to attract direct investment in each province decreases.

The results obtained from the present study indicate that although, based on the data examined in this study, crimes have not had a significant effect on the attraction of foreign direct investment, but the negative effects of GDP per capita and the industry index indicate that despite Iran's capabilities, it requires official and long-term planning to provide the necessary ground for attracting foreign direct investments. It seems that a step can be taken in this direction by applying the reduction of restrictions in the field of commercial policies, especially the foundation through tariff and customs policies and application of protective laws and regulations

The belief that innovation is a crucial factor in driving economic growth has led governments worldwide to increase investment in research and development (R&D). Many countries intervene in the R&D process of the private sector by utilizing policy tools such as tax credits, subsidies, direct financing, and research and development cost subsidies. Data shows a significant rise in the use of tax incentives in recent years. In Iran, there has been a particular interest in implementing tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies and providing tax credits for all firms.
Empirically, the existing literature in this field is still underdeveloped, particularly in the context of developing countries. This report aims to contribute to the existing knowledge by evaluating the impact of tax exemptions on R&D expenditures in Iran as a developing country.

To assess the effect of tax exemptions, we are interested in the R&D intensity index, which represents the ratio of R&D expenditures to GDP at the national level and the ratio of R&D costs to company income at the company level. The variable in question is a ratio between 0 and 1, like many other economic variables such as participation rates, market shares, debt-to-finance ratios, etc. The limited nature of such variables - and in some cases the large and significant accumulation of data at one or both limits - leads to limitations in estimates and inferences, and its economic modeling should be done with special approaches. In particular, the usual use of linear models is not a very accurate and correct method because it does not guarantee that the values predicted by these estimates are in the range of 0 and 1. In recent years, this concern has led researchers to focus on functional forms resulting from such data and develop models called Fractional Regression Models (FRMs).
In the model, the dependent variable is the share of a company's current R&D costs relative to total costs, which serves as a proxy for R&D intensity. The explanatory variables include the following:Researchers: The number of researchers in the company, logged.
Size: The sum of current and capital expenses of the company, used as an index of the size of the company in logarithmic form.
Avalibility of External Finance: For each company which used any financial resources rather than its internal resources, the value of this variable is 1, and in cases where the financing is completely internal, it is considered as 0.
The level of knowledge-based development (KBEDev): A variable based on previous studies, ranging from 1 (lowest level) to 3 (highest level).
Tax incentive: For those companies subject to this exemption, the variable amount is 1, and for the rest, it is 0.
Technology Intensity (Tech Level): According to the industry in which companies operate and using the categories used for technology leveling in the two leading organizations in this field, UNCTAD and OECD, number 3 represents the high level, number 2 represents the medium level, and number 1 represents the low level.

Using a fractional logistic regression approach on the data of 2,678 knowledge-based and industrial companies collected in 2020, the effects of tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies have been evaluated. The results of this article confirm the positive and significant effects of this exemption on research and development costs of companies. At the same time, it is indicated that, compared to other variables in the model, the presence of researchers, the level of knowledge-based development of the location of the company, and the opportunity for access to external financial resources have had a greater effect on the share of research and development expenses. However, these incentives have been more effective than the company's technology level. Additionally, the size of the company has a significant negative relationship with the interest ratio.

While our study supports the use of tax incentives, it is crucial to consider the broader economic landscape. Our findings highlight the importance of human resources and external funding. To effectively support knowledge-based companies and to create a more R&D-intensive country, it is not enough to solely provide tax exemptions for firms. However, mechanisms must be in place to foster reaching much more qualified human resources and to a greater extent finance. Financial incentives should be utilized in a manner that minimizes costs and maximizes economic growth and productivity. Future research can explore how to optimize the use of these tools, offering valuable insights to policymakers

The housing sector is one of the important economic sectors that, in addition to consumer demand, also faces demand from speculators due to its high capital return rate and low risk level. Speculators, motivated by the desire to profit from future price increases, refrain from offering their houses for sale, resulting in a housing vacancy. The presence of vacant houses reduces the housing supply and can lead to the formation of a housing price bubble. Imposing taxes on vacant houses is one of the government's tools to address this issue. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of taxes on vacant houses on the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz.

In this research, an agent-based model is used, considering four active agents in the housing market: sellers, buyers (including sellers and buyers with personal consumption and speculative motivations), developer, and real estate agencies, to investigate the dynamic processes of the housing market. To forecast the housing prices in Shiraz over an eight-year period, statistics and information by the beginning of 2022 have been incorporated into the model, and three different percentages of speculative buyers, including 30%, 50%, and 70% of the total buyers, along with different tax rates of 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25% have been considered.

The results of the research show that by applying a tax rate of 10%, if 70% of buyers are speculators, the highest growth rate of the housing price bubble was observed; that the decreasing growth rate was equal to 18%, that is, with application of tax on empty houses, the housing price bubble of Shiraz city in 2022 to the end of 2031 decreased by almost 19%, and after that the application of the tax rate of 15% in these conditions was approximately 17% which reduced the housing price bubble. But when the number of regular buyers is more than speculative buyers (30% of buyers are speculative), the application of different tax rates on vacant houses shows the least reduction effect on the housing price bubble. Therefore, when 70% of the buyers in the market are present in the market with the motive of personal consumption, the number of transactions is low. Since ordinary buyers will re-enter the market with a slight probability, and the majority of transactions are made by the 30% of buyers who are speculative, so applying the tax on vacant houses in the first year will cause a number of speculater to leave the market and the number of transactions will be less than before the tax was applied. In fact, mobilisation of the current stock of housing due to the tax may not have been high enough to affect prices which is consistent with Sego (2019).
Furthermore, the results indicate that increasing the tax rate on vacant houses does not necessarily lead to a further reduction of housing price bubble. When more than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, their power in transactions would be greater, and the increase in tax rate in the form of an increase in price will intensify the housing price bubble which could mean more transactions between traders. In fact, traders add tax to the price of the property, and increasing tax rates, in return worsens the bubble. So, here selecting the optimal tax rate becomes critically important. When less than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, the power of speculators will decrease as a result, which leads to further weakening of the price bubble. However, to a lesser extent when more than half of the market is in the hands of speculators, the price bubble will decrease.

The research results indicate that the implementation of different tax rates, despite varying numbers of speculators, can lead to a reduction in the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz, although the effectiveness may vary under different conditions. Moreover, it can create an appropriate income for the government, which can reduce the class gap by allocating and optimally directing the resulting resources towards the supply of housing for low-income groups. But the government should be careful in choosing the tax rate. It is necessary to set the tax rate on empty houses in such a way that renting the house or offering it in the market is more economical than keeping it empty by traders. In addition to the tax rate, choosing the tax base is also crucial. As mentioned in the text of the research, some countries consider the value of the property as the tax base instead of the rental income, or a fixed annual tax is collected

Making changes in the tax system is one of the basic and important needs for increasing government tax revenues. To achieve this, the tax system must move in a direction that increases the tax base. One of the most important solutions can be reducing tax exemptions and deductions. Since tax deduction plays an important role in determining tax revenues, ignoring its effect in tax studies can lead to misleading results. To address this research gap, this study uses a three-part dynamic general equilibrium model to estimate the Laffer Curve and investigate the effects of tax deductions on the curve and taxable income.

The analysis focuses on the household, business, and government sectors, highlighting the significance of tax deductions within each.
Findings from this research show that, in the absence of tax deductions, the optimal tax rate for maximizing tax revenue in terms of labor income is below 45%, while for capital income, it is below 40%. In contrast, when tax deductions are present, tax rates exceeding 50% and 55% maximize tax revenue for labor and capital income, respectively. Furthermore, the elasticity of taxable income for both labor and capital remains relatively constant across scenarios, with a slightly higher value observed when deductions are considered. Regarding capital income, the elasticity consistently exceeds 1 due to the presence of varied capital deductions. In both cases, the elasticity exhibits a downward slope, gradually decreasing as the tax rate increases and approaching a value of 1. In contrast, the ETI associated with labor income remains below 37%, regardless of the presence or absence of deductions.
Furthermore, under tax revenue elasticity, the rate of reaction to the tax rate for the labor force is almost uniform in low tax rates and has a downward trend with the increase of the tax rate in all three cases (considering and not considering deductions). But in the case of reductions in the labor force, the amount of reaction is higher than the other two cases. While the elasticity of tax income from capital gains due to capital depreciation deductions is always greater than 1 and is downward in all three cases and gradually decreases with the increase of the tax rate and approaches 1.

In the current research, to understand the effects of tax exemptions and deductions in the economic system, an attempt has been made to analyze the effects of tax deductions on the government tax revenues and the elasticity of taxable income and tax elasticity, in a simple three-part dynamic general equilibrium model including households, firms and government, three special cases regarding the absence of tax deductions and social security premiums should be investigated. To evaluate and estimate the model, first the calibrated parameters in previous studies were collected and then the results were obtained through MATLAB software.

One of the important results of this research is the changes in the government tax income and the reaction of individuals in the form of taxable income, caused by the consideration and non-consideration of deductions and tax exemptions on the household and corporate sectors.
As it can be seen, tax revenues in the scenario of removing tax deductions are more than the other two scenarios, i.e. considering deductions, on the other hand, the elasticity of taxable income in the presence of tax deductions show a greater reaction than in the case of not considering tax deductions.
Iran has been experiencing consecutive budget deficits over different periods. As a result of reduced oil revenues much greater attention has been drawn to a more efficient and effective taxing system. So, a substitution in the government revenue system can potentially deminish the over-dependence of the Iranian economy on oil revenues, which can lead to far reduced deficits both in the long and short term.
In terms of deductions and exemptions as a factor affecting tax revenues, it can display a more realistic picture of an economy and take into account the existing economic realities. Therefore, the tax system should act in such a way that it moves in the direction of expanding the tax base. One of the solutions for this is realized through elimination of tax exemptions and deductions. It seems that such policies can prevent tax evasion, collecting more tax, and ultimately increase the motivation for work and activity and cause economic growth and prosperity