نشریه سیاست دفاعی
پیاپی 127 (تابستان 1403)

The Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the effective actors in the South Caucasus scene, has a lot in common with the Republic of Azerbaijan. History, religion, common borders and the presence of relatives on both sides of the border are very effective potentials in the convergence of the two sides, which are rare in the relations of other governments. The available evidence shows that both countries have not been successful in regulating their relations. The main question of the article is what scenarios the future of relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan will face in the next 10 years.In response to this problem and by reviewing the research literature, the background of the relations between the two countries was studied and 20 influential factors (definite and indeterminate) in the relations between the two countries were extracted and after going through the eight stages of Schwartz's scenario writing, among the 12 scenarios found 3 desirable, possible and probable scenarios were identified.And finally, the scenario of peaceful coexistence was identified as the preferred and desirable scenario of Iran in the horizon of the next ten years.The results of the research show that the future of the relations between the two countries is mostly at the level of commercial and economic relations, and in order to revive the active political and social role of Iran in Azerbaijan, extensive changes in the attitude and macro policies of the country of Azerbaijan are necessary.

War has changed dramatically over the past few decades and it has distanced itself from the physical threats of conventional wars. The war is now moving towards social and ideological threats posed by the spread of mass media and technological advances. The emergence of this new type of war It's different from anything we've seen before and the reach and level of influence it hasmaking it far more dangerous than its predecessors. We have named this new way of war as cognitive war; Therefore, knowing the concept and nature of cognitive war and its difference with other non-kinetic wars is necessary in order to deal with future threats and reduce the level of vulnerability. Therefore, we tried in this research Using the descriptive-analytical method and using library resources and internet searches Answer the question of what is the concept and nature of cognitive warfare and how is it different from other Non-kinetic Wars? In response to the research question, this hypothesis is proposed that the cognitive war is actually a battle to control the mind of the population of a country and change the basic perceptions and beliefs of a nation. Cognitive warfare is not only about what the targeted people think, Rather, it affects their way of thinking and ultimately their way of acting and it follows that Destroy your enemies from within. Also, although there are various similarities between cognitive warfare and other examples of Non-kinetic Wars,

According to some analytic bases, a country possessing advanced uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing technology as well as heavy water technology has achieved “latent nuclear deterrence” because it can build nuclear weapons in short time. Building or not building nuclear weapons depends on the “political will” of that country’s leaders.If the structure of the international system, security environment and the elite threat perceptions change, their decision will also be subject to change.The key goal of this article is to respond to this question: What has been, in the eyes of Iranian decision-makers, the impact of “latent nuclear deterrence” strategy on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran?The research method is “qualitative” and is of “applied” research. It has employed the theory of “neoclassical realism.”Findings of this article show that, in the opinion of Iranian elites and decision-makers, the strategy of “latent nuclear deterrence” has been effective in preventing full-scale military invasion of enemies against Iran and has increased Iran’s bargaining power in the face of Western security demands.This research concludes that, based on Iranian polity’s understanding, this strategy can, under specific circumstances, prevent the full-fledged military invasion of enemy but doesn’t prevent less serious conflicts. It’s a temporary strategy, losing its effectiveness in the long term upon changes in the security environment and elite threat perceptions, thus increasing its chance of failure.

Global geopolitical risk indicates geopolitical tensions and events that are a serious threat to global security and peace. Most countries in the world react to this issue by increasing defense spending. The importance of this issue for the countries of the Middle East region is twofold; Because this region plays an important role in global geopolitical risk. Based on this, in the current research, the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of global geopolitical risk on Iran's defense spending have been investigated using a neoclassical model and annual data for the period of 1985-2021. For this purpose, first, the positive and negative impulses of global geopolitical risk have been extracted with the help of Granger and Yoon method. Then, using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, the existence of an asymmetric long-term equilibrium relationship has been confirmed; Finally, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been used to measure these asymmetric effects. The findings of this research show that in the short and long term, the positive impulses of the global geopolitical risk have increased defense spending and its negative impulses have decreased defense spending. But the increasing effect of positive global geopolitical risk impulses is greater than the decreasing effect of its negative impulses (confirming the asymmetric effect). According to other research results, Israel's defense spending has been the most important factor in increasing Iran's defense spending in the long term, and Saudi Arabia's defense spending has been the most important factor in increasing Iran's defense spending in the short term.

One of these views is the effect of geopolitics and geographical limitations of this regime on the national security of the Jewish state. By using the descriptive-analytical approach and by collecting library sources, while studying the geopolitical components of the Zionist regime, the present research has tried to answer the question of what challenges the Zionist regime is facing from the perspective of fixed geopolitical factors and what are the effects of these challenges. Has it placed on the national security of this regime? to answer. The findings of the research show that the Zionist regime is facing many challenges in terms of fixed geopolitical factors (geographical location, land size, topography, shape of the land); In such a way that these challenges have imposed many security problems on the Jewish state and limited the initiative of the leaders of the Zionist regime. Such conditions have put this regime in a geopolitical deadlock;In such a way that the measures taken by this regime to get rid of a geopolitical challenge will aggravate these challenges in other fields and therefore it can be claimed that the Zionist regime is in a geopolitical predicament which, in addition to limiting the policies of the leaders of the Zionist regime, political, economic and It imposes many social problems on this regime and reduces the national security factor of this regime in all dimensions.

This article aims to understand the geometry of power against the discourse of threats in the armed forces of J.A. in response to the question, what is the focal point of the geometry of power against the discourse of threats in the armed forces of J.A.? He has put his hypothesis on the fact that the focal point of the geometry of power against the discourse of threats in the armed forces of J.A. is based on the three axes of religiousness, following the constitution and obeying the orders of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and In the emphasizing Jihadist management, rule of law and localization of defense equipment, the chain of equivalence of the geometry of power in the armed forces of J.A. is formed against the threat discourse.The method of the article is descriptive-analytical and its type is fundamental-applied. The method of collecting information is done by focusing on the document analysis method and by reviewing the existing texts. The results of the investigation indicate that the semantic system of the geometry of power in the armed forces of J.A. through emphasizing the points mentioned in the hypothesis of this article.It can neutralize the semantic system of the equivalence chain of the threat discourse, which is focused on the three axes of inflammation, fear and doubt, and preserve the authority of the J.A. system in the field of defense-security in the three sectors of defending the values ​​of the Islamic Revolution. Strengthen the country's territorial integrity and independence.

The concept of strategy has fundamentally arisen from the field of defense and the primary applications of strategic studies can be found in this field. Until now, various models have been proposed for strategic management, but most of these models originated from profit-oriented organizations and the field of business management, and it is rare to find a model that specifically focuses on the field of defense and is available to the public. In this study, by reviewing the research literature, it was found that the existing models in this field have shortcomings in two basic areas, one of which is the lack of models with the characteristic of command and upstream strategies, and the second and more important, the lack of the present models with the characteristic of consequence and focus only on the results. , is. In this study, by reviewing and aggregating the existing studies in the form of a process model and adding a new step to the common steps (in the form of pre-formulation of result-oriented) and result-oriented features to the steps of strategic creation, implementation and control, a process model of strategic defense management has been obtained.

Undoubtedly, the international crime of genocide is one of the most important problems in international law. The United Nations Assembly, by Resolution No. (1)86 dated December 11, 1946, acknowledging that in all periods of history this act has caused a lot of damage to the world of humanity, and with confidence that in order to free the world of humanity from such a terrible plague, international cooperation is necessary. has compiled the "Convention on the Prohibition and Punishment of Genocide". Considering the difference between the foundations of Western approaches in drafting this convention and the foundations of Islam, this article has analyzed and evaluated these foundations by using the defense thought of the Supreme Leader as an expert jurist in the political school of the Ahl al-Bayt, peace be upon him. Using the analytical-descriptive method, it was found that the foundations for the prohibition of genocide include respect for the use of weapons of mass destruction, preservation of human dignity, and countering cultural genocide. Based on these principles, the damages and loopholes of the "Convention on the Prohibition and Punishment of Genocide", including the lack of support for political, social and cultural groups; Defects in the implementation mechanism and lack of obstacles in prevention, etc. were identified, and the Supreme Leader's defense model to protect human rights is introduced to the world as a guide to action and a basis for resistance against oppression and aggression.