مجله تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال شانزدهم شماره 3 (پاییز 1403)

Ensuring food security and maintaining and increasing food production in Iran, as one of the main goals of agricultural policies, are of great importance. However, climate change and non-climatic factors pose challenges to maintaining and increasing cereal production.
The present study evaluates the impact of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide emissions) and non-climatic factors (agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption) on cereal production in Iran using the ARDL approach by examining the time period of 1990-2020.
  The ARDL Bound test, confirms a valid long-term relationship between the variables. The results of the study show that an increase in temperature and precipitation can lead to an increase in cereal production, while CO2 emissions lead to a decrease in cereal production. Moreover, agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption also have a positive impact on cereal production.
The policies designed to support the agricultural sector and attract investment in this area are of great importance. Increasing the allocation of credits to the agricultural sector, encouraging the expansion of cereal cultivation, and the use of improved seeds can lead to an increase in productivity and cereal production in Iran. Also, in order to adapt to climate change, agricultural communities need to be provided with information about its impacts and mitigation measures so that they can face these challenges and increase agricultural productivity by utilizing the positive potential created.

Policy makers are faced with complex and multidimensional conditions to choose and implement water resources management policies in order to adapt to drought. On the one hand, due to the multidimensional and multiscale nature of water resources and drought management, there is a need to integrate tools for impact analysis and adaptation. On the other hand, the development of new irrigation technologies at farm level is one of the solutions and policies that are always discussed by experts and policy makers in the field of water resources management. Therefore, in the present study, a hydrological-economic model was used in order to evaluate the potential effects of drought and to develop new irrigation technologies as a solution to adapt to drought in the Kowsar dam watershed.

In this framework, a hydrological water planning and evaluation model (WEAP) and a positive mathematical programming model (PMP) were combined with the ability to evaluate socio-economic, agricultural and hydrological systems in a spatial and explicit manner. The necessary data and information are also taken from documentary studies at the basin level.

The results of the study showed that by increasing the efficiency of water consumption in the agricultural sector, the reduction of water consumption occurs without reducing the economic efficiency and quality of life. In such a way that by improving the efficiency of water consumption by 30% under drought conditions, the economic efficiency of water consumption in the entire basin will increase by about 7% compared to the basic conditions.

In other words, the development of new irrigation technologies leads to the saving of farmers' water and encouraging them to cultivate high-yield crops with high water consumption, which will improve the farmers' economic situation. Therefore, by implementing policies to improve the efficiency of water consumption without applying punitive policies in the field of preventing the planting of crops with high water consumption such as rice, it is possible to reduce water consumption without economic damage to farmers.regarding the economic growth of neighbouring countries.

This study was conducted with the aim of measuring the total factor productivity index in agronomy sub-sector of Iranian provinces. Moreover, its main determinants are identified. For this purpose, in the first step, the total factor productivity index of agronomy sub-sector in each of the studied provinces was measured and analyzed using the non-parametric approach of Malmquist productivity index hidden in data envelopment analysis (DEA-MQI) over the period 2009-2018. In the second step, using the system of seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE), the factors affecting the total factor productivity index were estimated. Based on the research findings, the total factor productivity indices for Qazvin and Ilam provinces have the highest and lowest average levels, respectively (1.09 and 0.703). This index has annual ups and downs in all provinces, however, its average in Qazvin, Bushehr, Golestan, Khorasan Razavi, Hamedan, Kurdistan, Fars, Isfahan, Zanjan, Mazandaran, West Azerbaijan, North Khorasan and Khuzestan provinces is greater than one. It indicates the growth of productivity of all factors in the crop sub-sector of the mentioned provinces. In addition, the agronomy sub-sectors of Kermanshah, South Khorasan, Lorestan, East Azerbaijan and Ilam provinces have experienced a decline in total factor productivity so that the average values are less than one (0.981, 0.963, 0.953, 0.943, 0.925, 0.923 and 0.703). Also based on the results of estimating the system of seemingly unrelated regression equations, in most of the studied provinces, research and development, development of agricultural products processing industries, extension training of farmers, crop insurance and intensity of mechanization have a positive and increasing effect on total factor productivity of crop sub-sectors. However, in some provinces, the mechanization and supportive policy of agricultural insurance have not had a positive and increasing effect on the total factor productivity index in crop sub-sector or have had a fundamentally contrary effect on expectations.

The purpose of this research is to modify the aforementioned model for economies like Iran that face many restrictions in trade. In the proposed model, the variables of friendly political relations, crisis and economic sanctions, which were often used as imaginary numbers in previous studies, were added to the model using the fuzzy logic technique. For this purpose, the data of 67 actual pistachio target markets in the period of 2001-2020 have been used to determine the efficiency of Iran's pistachio export using the modified stochastic frontier gravity model. The results showed that despite using the modified model in Iran's pistachio export market, none of the selected target markets have full efficiency. Also, the results show that there is a significant potential for the export of Iranian pistachios to trade partners. The export gap for all partners is negative, which indicates that Iran's current export is less than the maximum possible export.

Animal husbandry is one of the sub-sectors of agriculture, which plays a significant role in providing the protein needed by the country and, accordingly, food security. Camel meat production in Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces is cost-effective due to the desert location of the region, and by investing in it, the price fluctuations of red meat in the market can be reduced to some extent. In this research, data and statistical information were collected from the completion of 1020 questionnaires using a two-stage cluster sampling method with appropriate assignment at the level of the centers of the three provinces of Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan and Sistan and Baluchestan in 2020.The findings of this research show benefits of camel meat have a positive and significant effect on the willingness to consume camel meat, while that the price of various types of fish, beef and sheep meat has a positive and negative effect on the willingness to consume camel meat based on the relationship of substitution and complementarity

The present study is a descriptive-survey study in which the statistical population of this study consists of 1297 women farmers in Sari city of Mazandaran province, of which 300 were selected as the sample size and randomly sampled from They happened. The questionnaire was the main tool for assessing the research, the content validity of which was confirmed using the opinions of experts. In addition, the values ​​obtained from the extracted mean variance (AVE) and combined reliability (CR) showed convergent validity and appropriate reliability of the questionnaire. Structural equation modeling with partial least squares approach was used to analyze the data using Smart PLS3 software. Based on the results of research on four communication structures - technology, economic, situational, social, cultural and personality, had a positive and significant effect on the level of access of women farmers to food security information that 40.3% of the variance of farmers' access to information Explained food safety information.

Due to uncertain atmospheric conditions, agricultural products have a functional risk and irregular supply in the market. Irregular supply, in turn, cause price fluctuations and price risk for the farmer. To management the price risk of agricultural crops, we can use a new financial tool, such as an option derivative. The adoption of principled investment decisions and the optimal allocation of capital resources requires the valuation of the option through valid scientific methods. In the present study we firstly investigate the condition where corn is considered as a base asset. After the formation of a hypothetical option market for the corn, we address option pricing using Black-Scholes and binomial tree.
The current study aims to identify the factor affecting economic growth and the spatial correlation in 21 selected developed countries during 2016-2017 using panel Tobit and spatial panel Tobit models.
According to the results the volatility of corn prices was estimated using time series data, 0.3117 and standard error 0.0240. The estimated price of the call option and the put option In the Black Scholes model, it is 240.77 Rials and 2101.17 Rials per unit of corn crop respectively. This means that farmers can pay 2101.1 rials per unit, Cover yourself against the fall in corn prices. By increasing the number of periods, the estimated prices from the bimonthly tree are closer to the estimated price of the Black-Scholes model.
It is recommended that the market for this product, to reduce the price risk of producers and consumers in Iran's stock exchange.

The effectiveness of different economic policies depends on the full recognition of demand structure and household consumption pattern. So, estimating the demand and different elasticity has an important effect on food security and consumers' health and welfare.
In this study, the method of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and the quadratic almost ideal demand system containing demographic variables, is used to estimate the demand system. For this purpose, the raw data of household expenditure and income plan for the year 2020 is used
The results show that all the compensated and relative uncompensated price elasticity of urban and rural households are negative and less than one in 2020. So, it seems that all the commodity groups are really essential. Also, the result of the meat, sugar and milk groups(total households) and oil and beans groups(rural households) expenditure elasticity is more than one and the expenditure elasticity of the other groups is positive and less than one.
As for the importance of "meat" group, considering the pricing model for the commodity in the household food basket is very important. Since the income effect of the group is high, so it is suggested that the most supportive help of the food group being applied to access the initial satisfaction level, because the commodity' prices will increase daily