نشریه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 59 (بهار 1403)

Inflation has become one of Iran's permanent problems, and unlike many countries in the world, Iran has not been able to keep inflation at low levels. In this research, the factors affecting inflation between 2001 and 2021 were investigated using the quantitative regression approach to compare the intensity of the effects of variables at different levels of inflation. The results show that M2 growth has a positive and significant effect on inflation in all distributional quantiles, but this effect is ascending from the first to the second decile and then goes through a downward trend. The exchange rate coefficient, which was 0.120% in the first decade, reached 0.204% in the last decade and this shows that at low inflation levels, the exchange rate has less impact on inflation, but at higher levels of inflation, the intensity of the effect of the exchange rate on inflation also increases. In Iran's economy, the deficits that have led to the creation of liquidity beyond production have become a factor for excess demand and the formation of pressure to increase prices. In addition to the M2 growth, currency jumps have also played a significant role in Iran's inflation, and in the absence of currency jumps, the inflation rate experienced milder changes.

Technological advancements have transformed the payments industry. In the competition between banknotes and alternative instruments such as debit cards and mobile payments, the question of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) has emerged in recent years and sparked much debate. This research examines the factors influencing public adoption of CBDC in two parts. From a macroeconomic perspective, demand for money encompasses the demand for the various functions of money—such as a means of payment and as a type of asset. Drawing on conventional theories of money demand, we analyze this demand over the long term. Since CBDC is essentially fiat money with characteristics similar to physical currency, but does not compete with cash due to the latter’s unique features (e.g., anonymity), it serves as a better substitute for demand deposits. With this view of CBDC, the findings related to demand deposits can be attributed to CBDC demand. In this study, using data on the number of point-of-sale (POS) terminals, debit cards, and ATMs, a logistic model is estimated to calculate a digital development index for Iran’s economy. One key result is the positive and significant effect of this digital development index on demand for demand deposits (as a proxy for CBDC demand), and its negative and significant effect on demand for banknotes. In the second part, CBDC is examined as a payment instrument. Here, the factors influencing CBDC adoption are categorized into four groups: technological, demographic, financial-economic, and operational.

Consumers' perceptions of inflation can differ markedly from official statistics, especially in heterogeneous market environments. A significant discrepancy between public perception and official inflation figures can erode trust in governmental statistical agencies and central banks, potentially undermining the objectives of monetary policy. Furthermore, households may alter their economic behaviors, including consumption, investment, and savings, based on their perceived inflation rates, leading to deviations from policymakers' intended goals. This study adopts a cognitive approach to examine this phenomenon. Within a behavioral economics framework, we introduce an index to measure the perceived inflation of Iranian citizens. This index is derived from survey data and official statistics provided by the Statistical Center of Iran, specifically focusing on the food and beverage consumption group in 1399, disaggregated by province. Our findings indicate that West Azerbaijan province reported the highest perceived inflation for food and beverages, while Golestan province reported the lowest, highlighting a substantial disparity compared to official inflation rates. Even in Tehran, Iran's most populous province, residents perceived a significantly higher inflation rate, estimated to be 11.8 percentage points above the official figure. Factors such as diverse consumption patterns, household economic conditions, accessibility to information, and personal experiences can contribute to the gap between perceived and official inflation. Understanding this discrepancy is crucial for policymakers in formulating effective economic and social policies.

Governance of the Rial domain is one of the areas of governance that has received less attention from the country's economic policymakers in the past few decades. The purpose of Rial governance is for the government to use the capacities that the Rial payment system and the information available in bank transactions create for the administration of the country . therefore, the aim of the present study was to present a model for strengthening Rial governance with the aim of reducing capital outflow. This study was applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of its data collection method and was analyzed using a mixed research method (qualitative-quantitative). The present study was conducted in three steps including qualitative, interpretive structure modeling, and quantitative. The results of the qualitative section indicate that 8 overarching themes, 25 organizing themes, and 58 basic themes were identified. The overarching themes are monetary policies, exchange rate policies, creating and strengthening transparency in banking performance, strengthening supervision and control over banking operations, creating financial attractiveness for investment in the country, gaining the trust of foreign investors, good governance, and challenges. The results from the quantitative section also showed that the dimensions obtained have a significant impact on strengthening the governance of the rial with the aim of reducing capital outflows.

This research in Tehran Stock Exchange has analyzed the tracking performance of ETFs, i.e. how funds can repeat their pattern (index) and also their tracking error. Tracking performance with CAPM and index models, as well as the analysis of the presence or absence of balance of funds in the long term with the method of Johansen (1988) have been investigated. Tracking error has been analyzed through effective factors such as yield fluctuations, liquidity and price spread of funds. The data used in the research were extracted with daily frequency between the years 2013 and 2022. The obtained results indicate that from the point of view of tracking performance, only two funds had positive and significant alpha and some of these funds also behaved riskier than the market due to their high beta. The results of the convergence test also showed that the relationship between ETFs and the total index has an imbalance in the long term. Finally, the results of the effective factors on the tracking error showed that the selected effective factors were significant in some funds and non-significant in some funds.

Iran's economy is one of the sectors that always faces challenges in the implementation of policies and policies. Export financing in general and buyer's credit scheme in particular is one of the tools for implementing the policies formulated in this field, which increases the competitive power of Iranian exporters by granting facilities to foreign buyers. However, this plan could not fully achieve its goals. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to present a new model for the implementation of export financing policies in the form of buyer's credit, which combines two models, Calista and Matland, while paying attention to internal and external variables, the amount of ambiguity and conflict in the local environment and the political and economic conditions of Iran. The current research is of qualitative type and thematic analysis method, which was conducted with in-depth and targeted interviews with 13 experts and executives in the field of export financing. The sampling method was purposeful and snowball, and data coding and analysis was done by MAXQDA software. Then, the network of themes (basic themes, organizing themes, and comprehensive themes) was identified and the model of export financing policy implementation in the form of buyer credit was presented by combining the two policy implementation models of Calista and Matland.