نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال نهم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1403)

Observation is one of the important pillars of futures studies and the introduction of projects and researches. If it likened to a building, correct observation will be like a solid and reliable foundation for it. Different researchers have presented several observation models. These models are presented based on the surrounding conditions and characteristics of each research and are different from each other.The main purpose of the current research is to calculate the evaluation indicators of observation models and to identify the characteristics, strengths and weaknesses of 36 existing models, focusing on last ten years and common models in the past based on the aforementioned indicators, and, other goals Like determining the scoring relationship, observation models were also followed.

This research is practical from the point of view of the goal and is considered as mixed research and it uses the methods of library studies, expert panel and questionnaire.

In this research, 36 models were extracted and explained from among the existing observation models, and twelve final indicators were determined based on the opinion of experts in order to evaluate them. The mentioned indicators were weighted based on their importance by experts and a relationship was presented to score the observation models and finally 36 observation models were scored based on it.

The results show that the three observation models of Momenizahed, Sakalidis and Cuhls got the most points. Based on the final evaluation indicators, observation models were introduced that had more strengths in each of them.

In the present study, the subject of scenarios of the effect of new emerging movements on the Islamic Republic of Iran in the fifth decade of the Islamic Revolution was studied with the aim to Identify future studies about the most important social new emerging movements in Iranian society and the effects of these movements that will be happened in the fifth decade of the Islamic Revolution in form of the scenarios.

Semi-structured interviews with elites as well as the new scenario method (critical uncertainties) were used to achieve the goals by document analysis research method.

two cases of drivers (Democracy Movement and New Lifestyle Movement) which were more important according to the elites, were selected by recognition of the drivers and the existing uncertainties which four scenarios were proposed.

In this resarch according to the uncertainties in relation to each of the drivers that two scenarios refers to making important and fundamental changes by drivers and two scenarios refers to the control of the consequences of these drivers by the system of the Islamic Republic. 

The aim of this study is to model the drivers shaping the development of businesses in Iran. We seek to understand the factors and drivers that have a potential impact on business development through the use of digital platforms based on artificial intelligence. This research attempts to provide guidance by analyzing these drivers, enabling businesses to consider improvements and developments using modern technologies and artificial intelligence. The research methodology is of an exploratory mixed type. The theoretical population includes experts experienced in business, digital platforms, and artificial intelligence, and 20 of these experts were selected through purposive sampling. Initially, a literature review identified influential factors in business, focusing on digital platforms and artificial intelligence. Subsequently, through binomial tests and interpretive structural modeling, the influential factors were confirmed, ranked, and their interrelationships defined. Tools used included questionnaires and standardized pairwise comparison tests, validated and reliability-tested according to expert opinion and paired sign tests. The drivers of smartization (A2), business transformation and productivity enhancement (A12), and sustainable production and pollution control (A19) have a higher impact and influence than other drivers and will play a significant role in the future of digital business. This research demonstrates that the development of businesses utilizing digital technologies and artificial intelligence can be enhanced in the future. Smartization, business transformation, and sustainable production are among the macro factors that will significantly impact the future of businesses. These drivers can provide effective strategies for economic and social transformations in Iran.

Urban management in the current decade is associated with many complexities in the political, social, economic, environmental, legal, technical and technological issues. The city of Rasht, as one of the important metropolises of Iran is facing complicated and different issues in urban management toward its development process. The use of new technologies in the form of smart cities can be considered as a solution for the city of Rasht. To achieve the smart city in the horizon of 1415 in accordance with the upstream documents (provincial planning document in the horizon of 1415 and national model document in the horizon of 1444), it is necessary to use forward-looking tools to create a preferred and desirable future with the participation of all key stakeholders. This study tries to identify and prioritize the drivers of the smart city with a strategic foresight approach and explain the potential scenarios in 1415.

The research is a combination of descriptive-analytical and survey which was conducted by using panel of experts (Delphi), cross-effect analysis using Mic Mac and scenario planning with scenario wizard.

In the present study, nine basic drivers in the realization of smart cities were extracted and three potential scenarios for Rasht in the horizon of 1415 have been explained.

According to the results of the present study, the scenario of "return of the golden age of Rasht" as a smart city was achieved in the horizon of 1415 as a desirable scenario.

The current research method is mixed and of analytical and exploratory type, and in terms of its purpose, it is part of applied research.The participants in this research included experts and experienced people in the field of sports tourism, including guides of sports tourism tours, experts in the field of sports tourism, senior managers of organizations related to tourism, and the purposeful sampling method was used in the research. At first, key and influential factors on sports tourism were counted and 58 key and influential factors were compiled. In the second step, with the formation of an expert panel, similar key and influential factors were merged with each other, and out of 58 key and influential factors, 8 main influential drivers for sports tourism were identified. In the end, the mutual effects of the propellants were analyzed by using the future research software MicMac and applying the cross-matrix analysis method.

Medical physics specialists face problems due to the complexity and time-consuming design of radiation therapy. Various studies have pointed out the importance and role of artificial intelligence in radiation therapy and accelerating and improving its quality. This research examines and analyzes the possibility of using the U network to improve the design of radiation therapy as a technique to modify radiation therapy with a future-oriented approach.

To achieve this research goal, trend analysis has been used as one of the main methods of future research. The development path of the U network was examined in authoritative articles, and then by extrapolating the future development path, the application of this technique in radiation therapy was investigated. According to Prisma 2020 guidelines, study selection processes, screening and inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined.

Among the 28 articles studied, 20 articles were selected for further evaluation. The evaluation of the trend of U network strategies in radiotherapy showed that the use of U network will lead to better performance than traditional methods and more effectiveness and reduction of human error in radiotherapy treatment design.

Considering the future trends of the use of the U network in different fields of radiotherapy and the growth of the statistics of articles in this field, which shows the increasing interest in the research and development of artificial intelligence technologies, it is expected that in the future, the application of artificial intelligence technologies reducing treatment costs and improving the treatment process

Urban governance is one of the approaches that can be effective in better management,reducing the effects and adapting to climate change;But the realization of this approach is accompanied by obstacles,especially in big cities like Mashhad;Therefore, the purpose of this research is to analyze the challenges of good urban governance in the direction of adapting and reducing the effects of climate change, as well as identifying its future scenarios.

The current research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical and descriptive in nature and with a future research approach.The necessary data were collected through an elite questionnaire of 21 people in two sections:identification of challenges and scenario writing.Data analysis was done with the importance-urgency model for the challenges section,and Scenario Wizard software for scenario writing.

Among the 38 challenges investigated,6 of them have higher priority.These challenges are the diversity of actors involved in the process of urban policies,the limited income base of Mashhad municipality,the strong political division ruling the city-region of Mashhad with the involvement of various public organizations and institutions...

Finally, 6 priority variables were selected and based on that,7 scenarios were presented to face the key challenges,and among the 42 situations in these scenarios,19% are in favorable conditions,50% are on the verge of crisis, and 31% are critical.The first scenario,with 6 additional assumptions,draws an ideal vision of Mashhad city,which by stepping on its path, the challenges of urban governance in the era of climate change can be reduced.

Foresight deals with giving shape to the desirable world of tomorrow for a society, the main purpose of the research is to identify the requirements of foresight in governance for the applicability of emerging technologies with an emphasis on achieving sustainable agriculture in Iran method research was conducted as part of quantitative research and survey method. Its statistical population was 641 agricultural technology experts, 314 of whom were studied by stratified random sampling method with appropriate attribution.The data collection tool was a questionnaire whose form validity was confirmed using experts' opinions and its reliability was confirmed by calculating the Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.931)Findings The use of technologies plays an important role in the optimal use of basic production resources, and changing the perspective of agricultural users is the first priority of the foresight requirements in governance for the applicability of emerging technologies to achieve sustainable agriculture. The results of exploratory factor analysis showed; 5 factors of realizing sustainable agriculture, increasing efficiency and productivity in agricultural production, technologicalizing production in agricultural sub-sectors, developing the culture of technology and innovation in society, and developing the infrastructure required for emerging technologies, totaling 75.57% of the desired variance.

Foresight in governance is effective for the applicability of emerging technologies in: in order to develop technological agricultural units in agricultural sub-sectors and achieve sustainable agriculture, it is necessary with national determination and will based on a plan. A comprehensive and forward-looking operation, appropriate supports and incentives should be considered by the statesmen.

The current research was conducted with the aim of identifying the drivers affecting the development of the petrochemical industry in Iran. In terms of practical purpose, this research is a combined method that includes two main stages of library studies and validation by experts, at the exploratory level and based on the future research and scenario planning approach. In the present study, propellants were identified using library studies, and after identification, they were approved by experts. The target community of the research was academic researchers and experts and senior managers of the petrochemical industry who had scientific and practical experiences in the field of futurology. The snowball sampling method was also used for sampling. The critical drivers were identified with Mic Mac software based on the method of cross-effects analysis. Next, the future of the petrochemical industry in Iran was drawn in the form of 16 scenarios based on the Scenario Wizard software, based on the slope method. The results of the research indicate that 40 drivers effective on the development of the petrochemical industry were identified. Finally, based on the key drivers, 16 plausible scenarios were investigated and their importance was determined. The scenarios that have more weight are: sustainable development, adoption of new technologies, digital transformation, development of emerging markets and climate change and its effects. At the end, suggestions and solutions have been proposed to face the challenges and take advantage of the future opportunities of the petrochemical industry.

Coopetition strategy(cooperation-competition)is a popular strategic approach in the healthcare.Despite the acceptance of this approach,organizations have faced difficulties in implementing it to benefit from all its advantages.Therefore,the current research was conducted with the aim of identifying the key success factors of the cooperation-competition strategy in the healthcare and analyzing the scenario of these factors.This research is a mixed (qualitative-quantitative)research.In the first stage(qualitative)based on semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis,the key success factors were identified and in the second stage(quantitative),fuzzy cognitive map and scenario analysis was used to rank these factors.As a result of the first stage,74key factors of success were identified and categorized to15categories:"human resource management","skills to detect and resolve inconsistencies","training of managers","management of relations between organizations","degree of dependence and similarity".,"Information management","Smart monitoring and evaluation","Smart service","Appropriate culture creation","Positive manager","Multiple sources","Work environment design","Team work","contracts Management"and,"benchmarking".Based on the output of the fuzzy-cognitive-map,"Training of managers"and"contracts Management "are the driver and"Smart service"is the receiver.Other key success factors are typical.The highest degrees of dependence are "inter-organizational relationship management"and"intelligent monitoring and evaluation"."benchmarking"and"skill to detect and resolve inconsistencies"have the highest degree of effectiveness,and"management of relations between organizations"and"skill to detect and resolve inconsistencies"have the highest degree of centrality.The overlap of the backward scenarios indicates the special position of"smart monitoring and evaluation","contract management"and"proper culture building".Also,the overlap of future scenarios shows the importance of"benchmarking"and"training managers". Based on the findings,the development of information infrastructure,benchmarking,regulation of contracts based on the coverage of challenges and management training are recommended for the development of cooperation-competition strategy in health care sector.

This study aims to examine and analyze the future of the advertising industry through the application of Augmented Reality (AR). It seeks to identify the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for advertising in the era of AR and to propose solutions for effective utilization of this technology. The ultimate goal is to assist stakeholders in the advertising industry in developing innovative and more interactive strategies to enhance user experience and increase audience engagement.

A systematic review method was employed in this study, allowing researchers to review, analyze, and categorize prior studies related to the applications of AR in advertising. Scientific articles and research with quantitative, qualitative, and mixed-method approaches in the field of advertising and AR were examined as primary sources.

The conducted review indicates that AR technology is reshaping the advertising industry. Findings suggest that AR can provide audiences with personalized interactions and more engaging content, steering future advertising towards more interactive and immersive experiences. Additionally, challenges such as implementation costs, privacy concerns, and the need for adequate technical infrastructure have been identified, which must be addressed for optimal AR utilization.

The results of this study suggest that AR can play a pivotal role in transforming the advertising industry. By correctly leveraging this technology, businesses and advertising agencies will be able to deliver innovative and interactive advertising experiences, leading to greater customer attraction and increased engagement with brands.

Uncertainty, complexity, and dynamism are three characteristics of the environment that surround 21st century organizations and have caused their instability. Improving forecasting about future opportunities and threats and quickly reacting to them has become the main competence of successful organizations. Organizations that have access to strategic information will be leaders in their field. Strategic intelligence is the mechanism that creates this opportunity. The current research tries to present a strategic intelligence model as a tool to reduce uncertainty in this industry, considering the conditions faced by companies active in the field of pharmaceuticals.

The current research is in the qualitative research group from the point of view of objective, practical and from the point of view of data collection method. The research community included experts in the field of strategic management, marketing and policy in the pharmaceutical industry. Sampling was done in a purposeful way and finally theoretical saturation was achieved by conducting 22 interviews. The data collection tool was interview.

In the open coding stage, 560 statistical codes were classified into 25 subcategories. Finally, the three categories of technology pressure, market pressure and uncertainty as causal conditions; two categories of knowledge management and perspective building as dimensions of the central phenomenon; Individual factors and organizational factors as categories of background conditions; micro factors and macro factors as intervening conditions; two factors of reorganization and empowerment as strategies; and support and survival were identified as outcomes.