فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 100 (پاییز 1403)

The effect of income on subjective well-being, often used as a key measure of well-being, has been widely studied. However, various dimensions of this relationship remain unexplored. The current study aimed to examine the nonlinear effect of income on the subjective well-being of 58 countries over during 2005–2020. The analysis relied on two distinct scenarios. The Panel Smooth Threshold Regression (PSTR) model, derived from regime-switching models, was employed for the analysis. Additionally, the study investigated the effects of income, unemployment, inflation, life expectancy, and income inequality on subjective well-being. The findings revealed that in a nonlinear relationship, the effect of GDP on subjective well-being diminishes at a certain threshold value of income inequality. Consequently, while policymakers aim to increase national income and reduce income inequality to enhance well-being, it is crucial to recognize that further reductions in inequality beyond a certain threshold may reduce the effect of income on well-being. This suggests that after a certain threshold, governments should prioritize reallocating resources toward other essential needs rather than solely focusing on reducing income inequality.

Several factors influence the growth and development of the stock market. One of these factors is the behavior and performance (investment return) of individual investors. Individual investors are motivated to invest in the stock market for various reasons, such as long-term capital growth, dividends, and hedging against the decline in purchasing power due to inflation. However, their performance in the market, in addition to general economic and stock market conditions, depends on individual characteristics. In this respect, the present study aimed to examine the significance of demographic, behavioral and investment-related factors on the performance of individual investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The demographic factors included age, gender, risk tolerance, patience level, etc. Behavioral biases included factors such as overconfidence and loss aversion, while the investment-related factors encompassed experience, skills, and the frequency of portfolio restructuring. Using a systematic sampling, the study collected the data from 240 questionnaires completed by individual investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The ordinal logit model was employed to analyze the data. The results showed that age, gender, and risk tolerance did not significantly affect the performance of individual investors. However, the patience level had a positive and significant effect on performance, with more patient investors achieving higher returns. Overconfidence and loss aversion were found to have a significantly negative effect on performance. Finally, investment experience and skills had a significantly positive effect on the investor performance.

Some monetary policymakers attribute the persistent high inflation in Iran’s economy solely to the lack of central bank independence, arguing that granting the central bank autonomy is necessary to reduce inflation. However, empirical studies reveal that central bank independence faces significant structural challenges due to the endogeneity of money within Iran’s economic system. This article aimed to identify the key components of requirements of central bank independence, with a particular focus on the government structure in Iran’s economy. A comprehensive review of existing literature on central bank independence was conducted. Moreover, a grounded theory approach was used to achieve theoretical saturation concerning central bank independence in Iran. Then, the study relied on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and analyzed 21 variables to identify the key factors defining the requirements of central bank independence in Iran. The findings highlighted several key factors, including the deviation of the effective exchange rate from the appropriate exchange rate, the government budget deficit, oil revenues, and the government effectiveness index. Furthermore, the results suggested that increasing central bank independence alone, within the context of variables contributing to endogeneity of money under Iran’s current economic conditions, has a weak and fragile effect. Thus, it is essential to undertake structural reforms targeting these critical variables as a prerequisite to meaningful discussions and efforts toward central bank independence.

The leverage ratio reflects a company’s relative reliance on capital and debt. Higher leverage ratios, indicating greater dependence on debt relative to equity, ceteris paribus, increase the firm’s financial risks. The present study examined the effect of income tax and deductible financial costs on the firm’s leverage ratios. The data was collected from companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2011–2020. Theoretically, higher effective tax rates and deductible financial costs are expected to lead to higher leverage ratios. These hypotheses were tested using a dynamic panel data model and the generalized least squares (GLS) method. The findings revealed that, after accounting for control variables, the effective income tax rate has no significant impact on the leverage ratio. However, financial costs have a positive and significant relationship with the leverage ratio.

More than three decades have passed since the adoption of development policies in Iran following the Islamic Revolution. Despite these efforts, Iran remains in the fourth quarter of development and the first quarter of underdevelopment. While development and underdevelopment cannot solely be attributed to policymaking, it is widely recognized as a critical factor influencing development. Employing the grounded theory approach, the present study sought to uncover the underlying reasons for the failure of development policy in Iran from the perspectives of experts and policymakers. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 experts and development policy managers. The collected data was analyzed through three stages of coding: open, axial, and selective. The analysis resulted in 629 primary concepts, which were refined and reduced into 78 subcategories, 24 main categories, and ultimately, one core category. The core category revealed that development policy in Iran suffers from a triangle of inefficiencies: the inefficiency of governance, the inefficiency of social structure, and the inefficiency of the elite order. These three inefficiencies are not isolated but interconnected, forming a kind of ominous triangle that undermines the efficiency of development policy in Iran. If these inefficiencies persist, Iran risks facing a double underdevelopment that can significantly hamper the pursuit of sustainable development.

Conventional economics posits that the presence of arbitrage in financial markets forces market participants to act rationally in order to maximize profits. This assumption underpins the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). However, in recent years, behavioral economics has challenged the assumption of market efficiency and rational behavior by demonstrating the significant impact of seemingly irrelevant factors (e.g., weather conditions, air temperature, and pollution) on financial markets. The present research aimed to compare the explanatory power of these two perspectives by analyzing daily data from the Tehran Stock Exchange index over two periods: February 20th, 2022 to February 19th, 2023, and February 20th, 2023 to February 19th, 2024. The study relied on the daily data on the growth rate of the dollar as an explanatory variable for the total stock market index growth from a conventional economics perspective. From a behavioral economics viewpoint, the analysis incorporated variables such as air temperature, weather conditions, and the pollution index. Given the nature of financial markets, the study used the EGARCH method for analysis. The results indicated that during the period from February 20th, 2022 to February 19th, 2023, when the dollar rate exhibited a significant upward trend, the explanatory power of behavioral variables decreased, with some even losing their significance in explaining the total stock market index. However, during the period from February 20th, 2023 to February 19th, 2024-when the exchange rate remained relatively stable-behavioral variables had a significant impact on the total stock market index.

In an era of economic complexity, where goods and services are produced using advanced technologies and with significant diversity, achieving economic growth without environmental pollution has become one of the primary goals for nations worldwide. This objective necessitates measures such as investment in knowledge-based production, which in turn relies heavily on investment in research and development.  The present study aimed to examine the relationship between multidimensional economic complexity and inclusive green economic growth. Given the geographic proximity of some developed and developing countries, the research employed a spatial panel econometric method using data from these nations. The results indicated a significant relationship between inclusive green growth and economic complexity in both developed and developing countries. However, this relationship is relatively weaker in developing countries.