نشریه پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه
سال پنجم شماره 4 (پیاپی 20، زمستان 1403)

According to the macroeconomic literature, the effect of various internal and external shocks on macroeconomic variables and then on labor market variables in different exchange regimes are different from each other. Based on this, this study investigates the effect of external shocks including oil revenue shock, foreign inflation shock and exchange rate shock on labor market variables in three types of floating, fixed and managed floating exchange regimes using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model used included households, firms, the government, monetary policy makers, and the foreign sector. The results of the impulse response functions show that the analysis of the effect of the oil revenue shock on labor market variables shows that the effect of this shock was positive on employment and negative on unemployment. This positive effect is more in the fixed exchange rate system than in the managed floating exchange rate system and in the managed floating exchange rate system more than in the floating exchange rate system. The impact of foreign inflation on employment in both fixed and managed floating exchange rate systems was positive and has led to an increase in employment. But in the floating exchange rate system was negative, and it has reduced employment. Also, the effect of the exchange rate shocks on employment, labor force participation and providing job opportunities in the fixed exchange rate system was positive and has caused an increase in these variables.

Businesses face numerous financial challenges, especially if they want to adhere to ethical and Sharia-compliant principles in their financing. In this regard, the present study examines the methods and opportunities for using Qard-ul-Hasanah funds as a strategic tool to support businesses and sustainable development in start-ups and early-stage companies, and ultimately others in need of these funds. Using the concept of Qard-ul-Hasanah, which emphasizes social solidarity and economic justice in Islam, this study proposes a conceptual framework for increasing entrepreneurial resilience and sustainable business practices among start-ups. The final sample of the study includes twenty-five countries, covering the years 2013 to 2022. However, data for some countries were not available for all selected years, and therefore the study was constructed from an unbalanced panel data set with 226 observations. The findings of this study show that countries providing Qarz-ul-Hasanah funds have a higher level of economic growth than other countries. In addition, Qarz-ul-Hasanah funds have been able to have positive effects on the main indicators of sustainable development, including: poverty line ratio, secondary education completion, gender diversity and internet use, which indicates the high potential of Qarz-ul-Hasanah in strengthening sustainable development.

One of the most important goals of companies is to determine the best mix of financing sources, or capital structure. Most companies use some type of debt in their capital structure. Debt structure is one of the important indicators that determine the success of a company. In this study, the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the debt maturity structure of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange was examined. To determine the statistical sample, the systematic elimination method was utilized, and 106 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange were examined during the period 2011-2023. The findings of this study showed that economic policy uncertainty has an effect on the debt maturity structure of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and increases the debt maturity of the companies under study. The results also show that the higher the credit rating, the higher the maturity of the company's debts and subsequently the cost of financing decreases; however, no significant relationship was found regarding the effect of the company's financial constraints and company size.

The present study investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate fraud in the Iranian capital market. The financial data of 125 companies between 2013-2022 (observations of 1250 years - firms) have been employed for this purpose. Z-Altman's and modified Benish's indices were used to measure the variable of corporate fraud. Since these variables are two-valued, logit regression was used to test the research hypothesis. Moreover, three indices were used to measure the economic policies uncertainty variable, namely inflation rate, currency rate, and economic growth rate. The results show a positive and significant relationship between the economic policies uncertainty (based on the index of inflation and currency changes) and corporate fraud (Z-Altman's). Also, according to the test results, there is no significant relationship between the economic uncertainty policies (based on the index of economic growth changes) and corporate fraud (Z-Altman's). While the results of the additional test (based on the modified Benish index) showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between the economic policies uncertainty (based on the index of currency changes) and corporate fraud, there is no significant relationship between the economic policies uncertainty (based on the index of changes in inflation and economic growth) and corporate fraud.

This study investigates the effects of imposing a tax on interest income derived from time deposits on the real sector of the economy, with particular attention to household welfare and the construction and real estate sectors. Utilizing a Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) model, the analysis is based on data from the 1999 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) published by the Central Bank of Iran. The matrix classifies production activities and goods into eight categories, production factors into three groups (labor, capital, and mixed input), and economic agents into six groups: households, government, oil and gas, financial institutions, non-financial institutions, and the external sector. Investment is divided into two categories: construction and real estate, and non-construction and real estate. The study aims to explore the broader economic implications of the tax reform, specifically focusing on the real estate market, exchange rate dynamics, and household welfare, while incorporating the interrelationships between these variables within an economy-wide general equilibrium framework. The findings are expected to provide insights into how such a tax policy would affect key sectors of the economy and the overall welfare of households. The results of the model simulation show that imposing a 10% tax on interest income from time deposit accounts results in a 1.24% decrease in total savings and a 2.62% increase in total consumption. Demand for construction and real estate increases by 0.22%, while the exchange rate decreases by 1.4%. In terms of household welfare, the utility function suggests a 0.35% decline, despite a 0.92% increase in household income. This decline in welfare is primarily attributed to a nearly 2% increase in the general price index of goods, which offsets the benefits of the higher income, leading to reduced overall satisfaction.

The objective of this study is to examine the role of institutional quality in shaping the impact of logistics performance (LP) on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Iran over the period 2007–2021. Using the health of the legal system (LSH) as an indicator of institutional quality, the model was estimated employing the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) approach. The findings from the long-term analysis across the low (0.25), middle (0.5), and high (0.75) quantiles reveal that both LP and LSH have a positive effect on FDI, with the magnitude of this effect being more pronounced in higher quantiles. However, the interaction effect between LSH and LP is negative across all quantiles, with a larger negative effect observed in the middle and upper quantiles. The marginal effect of LP indicates that, within the lower quantile, improving LSH up to a threshold of 0.52 enhances the positive effect of LP on FDI. However, once the LSH surpasses this threshold, the positive impact of LP begins to diminish. In contrast, for the middle and upper quantiles, there is no discernible threshold, and the relationship remains consistently positive across all levels of LSH. The error correction model (ECM) term suggests that short-term imbalances converge to the long-term equilibrium at different rates: 10% per period in the low and middle quantiles and 50% per period in the high quantile. Furthermore, the Wald test for the long-term relationship reveals that the effects of LP and LSH are asymmetric across different quantiles. These results underscore the importance of considering institutional quality in shaping the effects of logistics performance on foreign direct investment, highlighting the need for context-specific policies to foster optimal investment conditions.