فهرست مطالب

فصلنامه مطالعات بنیادین و کاربردی جهان اسلام
پیاپی 22 (زمستان 1403)
- تاریخ انتشار: 1404/12/01
- تعداد عناوین: 12
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صفحات 1-26
کانون اصلی سیاست خارجی هر کشوری تامین منافع ملی است، اما تامین منافع ملی در خلا رخ نمی دهد و نیازمند تعامل دولت ها با نظام بین الملل و هنجارهای برخاسته از آن است. در همین ارتباط، از زمان وقوع انقلاب اسلامی در سال 1357 علی رغم بروز و ظهور رگه هایی از واقع بینی در برخی ادوار، بعد آرمان باوری در سیاست خارجی غلبه داشته است. به همین جهت، جمهوری اسلامی ایران در تامین منافع ملی در عرصه سیاست خارجی با چالش های جدی مواجه شده است. در همین راستا سوال اصلی پژوهش بر این مبنا قرار دارد که باتوجه به ناسازواری منافع ملی با ساختار نظام بین الملل، چه راهبردی در عرصه سیاست خارجی بهتر می تواند منافع ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران را تامین کند؟ یافته ها مبین این واقعیت هستند که باتوجه به ماهیت ایدئولوژیک نظام و ضرورت حفظ آرمان های انقلاب اسلامی از یک سو و ساختار واقع گرایانه نظام بین الملل و الزامات آن از سوی دیگر، اتخاذ راهبرد عمل گرایی نتیجه محور در سیاست خارجی می تواند به بهترین نحو تامین کننده منافع ملی باشد. روش پژوهش تحلیل محتوای کیفی بوده و داده ها از منابع اسنادی و کتابخانه ای جمع آوری شده است. همچنین از مبانی نظری پراگماتیسم برای تبیین موضوع پژوهش بهره برداری شده است.
کلیدواژگان: منافع ملی، سیاست خارجی، ایدئولوژی، عمل گرایی، جمهوری اسلامی ایران -
صفحات 27-53
اساس سیاست خارجی اسرائیل به ویژه دربرابر کشورهای اسلامی مبتنی بر دو اصل بی اعتمادی و بدبینی نهادینه شده و تضمین بقا، ثبات و امنیت خود است. این موضوع درخصوص جبهه مقاومت به مثابه راهبردی ترین دشمن اسرائیل بسیار ملموس تر است. به همین سبب، سران صهیونیستی همواره رویکرد بازدارندگی تهاجمی و هجوم گسترده به مواضع کشورهای مذکور، ترور نخبگان نظامی و علمی و حمله به مراکز راهبردی و اقتصادی آن ها را اتخاذ می کنند. با وقوع عملیات 7 اکتبر 2023 جنبش حماس، برای نخستین بار جبهه مقاومت با تغییر پارادایم از بازدارندگی تدافعی به بازدارندگی تهاجمی، بسیاری از معادلات امنیتی- سیاسی منطقه را با تطوری عمیق مواجه کرد و سران صهیونیستی نیز ضمن تهاجمات گسترده به مناطق غیرنظامی فلسطینیان، در ادامه به سفارت ج.ا.ا در سوریه حمله و سپس به ترور اسماعیل هنیه اقدام کردند. براین اساس، پژوهش حاضر درصدد است با استفاده از روش جامعه شناسی تاریخی و بهره گیری از منابع مکتوب و مجازی به این سوال اصلی پاسخ دهد که «چگونه می توان چرخه بحران امنیتی در روابط اسرائیل و جبهه مقاومت را تجزیه و تحلیل کرد؟» یافته های مقاله با تاکید بر تئوری چرخه بحران مایلس هاگ نشان می دهد که در مرحله عقبه تاریخی بحران: موضوع مهم شکاف های ایدئولوژیکی- مذهبی با تاکید بر صهیونیسم یهودی و اسلام شیعی؛ در مرحله تکوین بحران: مجموعه رویدادهای صورت گرفته در پسابیداری اسلامی همچون تاثیر اسرائیل در ظهور و قوام گروه های تروریستی تکفیری، توافق نامه آبراهام و حملات نظامی گسترده به مردم فلسطین و بدون ضمانت اجرا و توانمندی سازمان ها و نهادهای حقوقی- سیاسی بین المللی در محکومیت و بازدارندگی اقدامات اسرائیل؛ در مرحله تصادم یا رویارویی: وقوع عملیات طوفان الاقصی، حمله به سفارت ایران در دمشق، عملیات وعده صادق و ترور اسماعیل هنیه و نهایتا در مرحله وساطت یا میانجی گری: به اقدامات محدود قطر و برخی دیگر از کشورهای منطقه و جهان و تهدیدات ایالات متحده علیه جبهه مقاومت به حضور نظامی در منطقه اشاره داشت. پیامدهای این موضوع نیز در دو سطح خرد و کلان مورد مداقه قرار گرفت.
کلیدواژگان: اسماعیل هنیه، بازدارندگی تهاجمی، جبهه مقاومت، طوفان الاقصی، وعده صادق -
صفحات 55-86
سیاست خارجی امارات متحده عربی در آفریقا را می توان از ابعاد مختلفی تبیین کرد. نگارنده در این مقاله سیاست خارجی امارات در آفریقا را براساس اسناد بالادستی این کشور تبیین می کند. با مطالعه اسناد بالادستی می توان به درک عمیق تری از انگیزه ها، استراتژی ها، اقدامات و تاثیرات سیاست خارجی امارات در آفریقا دست یافت و درنهایت از این طریق شناخت بهتر الگوهای تعاملی امارات با کشورهای مختلف آفریقایی حاصل می شود.اسناد بالادستی امارات (شامل اسناد کلان و ابتکارات)، ازطریق مدون کردن استراتژی کلان این کشور، به دنبال ترسیم اهداف و منافع آن در عرصه سیاست خارجی در حوزه چندگانه سیاسی، اقتصادی، امنیتی- نظامی و فرهنگی در آفریقاست. این پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که چگونه می توان ازطریق اسناد بالادستی امارات، سیاست خارجی این کشور را در آفریقا تبیین کرد؟ ضمن ارائه مدل استخراجی از دوایر متحدالمرکز برای اهداف سیاست خارجی امارات در آفریقا، در پاسخ، فرضیه ای که مطرح می شود این است که هدف مرکزی همه اسناد و ابتکارات امارات در آفریقا، درنهایت توسعه اقتصادی در این قاره است که در قلب آن بهبود زندگی مردم آفریقا قرار دارد. روش به کاررفته در این مقاله، روش تحلیل اهداف است؛ تحلیل اهدافی که از مطالعه ابتکارات، برنامه ها و اسناد طراحی شده دولت امارات متحده عربی حاصل شده است.
کلیدواژگان: سیاست خارجی، امارات متحده عربی، آفریقا، اهداف و منافع متحد المرکز، پوشش ریسک استراتژیک -
صفحات 87-111
یکی از مهم ترین معضلات امنیتی دولت ترکیه از زمان پیدایش این کشور، منازعه ترکیه و کردها بوده است. هویت طلبی کردی در داخل و خارج از مرزهای ترکیه، در مقابله با ایدئولوژی کمالیسم با تاکید بر ملی گرایی و جذب دیگر هویت ها در هویت مورد تایید، به حاشیه ای شدن کردها در ترکیه دامن زد. روند فوق با اقدامات حزب عدالت و توسعه، که البته خواهان تغییر در رویکرد کمالیسم پیرامون اقلیت های قومی بود، تشدید شد. هدف پژوهش، بررسی ناموفق بودن مسئله فوق بر مبنای نظریه سازه انگاری است و باتوجه به رویه و مواضع نسبتا اصلاح گرایانه اردوغان، این پرسش پیش می آید که چرا این مناسبات پس از یک دهه آرامش نسبی به تیرگی و کشمکش بدل شد؟ و به عبارت دقیق تر، علت فعال شدن مجدد شکاف قومی ترک- کرد پس از یک دهه سیاست آشتی ملی و کاهش حمایت کردها از حزب عدالت و توسعه چه بوده است؟ فرضیه مورد آزمون پژوهش این است که به نظر می رسد ناتوانی دولت ترکیه به رهبری حزب عدالت و توسعه در امر بازنگری هویت در مواجهه با هویت کردی در پیگیری و تامین کامل مطالبات اقلیت کرد پس از مذاکرات آشتی ملی و دست نیافتن کردها به مطالبات اصلی شان و همچنین گرایش کردها به همبستگی فرامرزی با کردهای سوریه، باعث خصمانه شدن مواضع طرفین و فعال شدن شکاف ترک- کرد در سال های اخیر شده است که این ناکامی ها و مواضع خصمانه برای حزب حاکم نتیجه ای جز مواجهه قهرآمیز و نظامی با کردهای ترکیه نداشته است.
کلیدواژگان: ترکیه، حزب عدالت و توسعه، کرد، کمالیسم، هویت طلبی -
صفحات 113-137
در دهه های اخیر، چین به عنوان یکی از بزرگ ترین قدرت های اقتصادی و سیاسی جهان شناخته شده و نقش خود را در نظام بین الملل به طور قابل توجهی تقویت کرده است. این روند نه تنها در روابط جهانی تاثیر گذاشته، بلکه به ویژه برای اتحادیه اروپا، چالش ها و فرصت های جدیدی را ایجاد کرده است. اتحادیه اروپا، به عنوان یک نهاد چندملیتی با منافع اقتصادی و سیاسی گسترده، به دقت درحال مدیریت روابط خود با چین است تا ضمن بهره مندی از مزایای اقتصادی، نگرانی های مربوط به مسائل حقوق بشر، امنیت و اثرات ژئوپلیتیکی را نیز مدنظر قرار دهد. از سوی دیگر، جمهوری اسلامی ایران به عنوان کشوری که در موقعیت جغرافیایی استراتژیکی واقع شده و دارای منابع طبیعی غنی است، به روابط با چین توجه ویژه ای دارد. ایران در تلاش است تا از این روابط برای مقابله با تحریم های بین المللی و بهبود وضعیت اقتصادی خود بهره برداری کند. بااین حال، تغییرات در سیاست های اتحادیه اروپا و رویکردهای چین می تواند تاثیرات عمیقی در آینده روابط ایران با این دو بازیگر مهم داشته باشد. این مقاله رویکرد سیاسی و اقتصادی اتحادیه اروپا درقبال چین و تاثیر آن در جمهوری اسلامی ایران را بررسی کرده است. از یک سو، تحلیل استراتژی های کلیدی اتحادیه اروپا در تعامل با چین و از سوی دیگر، بررسی تاثیر این رویکردها در سیاست های اقتصادی و خارجی ایران، مباحث اصلی این تحقیق را تشکیل می دهند. هدف این پژوهش، ارائه یک درک جامع از تعاملات پیچیده بین این بازیگران و تحلیل پیامدهای آن برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران است.
کلیدواژگان: ایران، اتحادیه اروپا، چین، سیاسی، اقتصادی -
صفحات 139-164تهدیدات امنیتی نوین همچنین مفهوم امنیت موسع، امروزه چالش های فراوانی را پیش روی بازیگران منطقه ای قرار داده است. در این بین، فضای سایبری طی دهه گذشته تبدیل به یکی از مهم ترین میدان های نبرد شده است. فضای سایبری در کنار فرصت های بی شماری که برای بشر ایجاد می کند، درعین حال خالق تهدیدات نوین و چالش های جدی برای امنیت جوامع انسانی نیز است. اسرائیل با درک اهمیت فضای مذکور، هم در نقش محافظ امنیت و جبران کننده ضعف های ژئوپلیتیکی و هم در نقش عامل بازدارنده و تهاجمی، علاوه بر سرمایه گذاری های شگرف مادی و انسانی، راهبردهای منظم و دقیقی در رابطه با آن تدوین کرده است. این پژوهش درصدد است که با مطالعه اسناد راهبردی اسرائیل در حوزه سایبر، به سوال «فضای سایبر چه نقشی در راهبردهای نظامی اسرائیل بازی می کند؟» پاسخ دهد. باتوجه به یافته های پژوهش، اسرائیل با ایجاد همکاری های نزدیک میان نهادهای نظامی- امنیتی و شرکت های فعال خصوصی در حوزه امنیت سایبری و با تعریف کردن آن ها زیر یک چتر واحد توانسته حوزه آفندی و پدافندی خود را توامان پوشش دهد و همچنین تا حد زیادی تهدیدات این حوزه ها را کنترل و اقدام به خلق بازدارندگی سایبری کند. اسرائیل در چهار بعد اقتصادی، نظامی- اطلاعاتی، اجتماعی و سیاسی به صورت تفکیک شده راهبردهای سایبری خود را طرح ریزی کرده است. همچنین اسرائیل توانسته با توانایی های خود در حوزه سایبر، اشراف اطلاعاتی، جاسوسی و خرابکاری خود را در منطقه و جهان بسط و گسترش دهد.کلیدواژگان: فضای سایبری، اسرائیل، راهبردهای نظامی، امنیت ملی، اسناد بالادستی اسرائیل، امنیت موسع
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صفحات 165-193
روابط کشورها با یکدیگر اساسا در قالب سیاست خارجی آنها نمود پیدا می کند و سیاست خارجی هر کشوری تحت تاثیر ویژگی های جغرافیایی و ژئوپلیتیکی آن است. این پژوهش با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و با استناد به منابع کتابخانه ای و مطالعه میدانی، به دنبال بررسی و تحلیل نقش عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی در روابط عراق و عربستان سعودی در طی سه دهه گذشته است. برای بررسی داده های میدانی تحقیق از روش تحلیل عامل تاییدی نوع اول در نرم افزار LISREL و برای آزمون استنباطی و آمار توصیفی از نرم افزار SPSS استفاده شده است. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد در بین متغیرها و عوامل تاثیرگذار در روابط دو کشور، به ترتیب متغیرهای بعد فرهنگی دارای بیشترین تاثیر، متغیرهای بعد سیاسی- امنیتی در رتبه دوم و درنهایت متغیرهای بعد اقتصادی دارای کمترین تاثیر بوده اند. نتایج تحلیل عاملی در بعد سیاسی- امنیتی نشان می دهد متغیرهای «حمایت های عربستان از گروه های بنیادگرای افراطی، داعش و...» و متغیر «ایدئولوژی سیاسی متفاوت دو کشور (شیعه- وهابیت) بیشترین تاثیر را در تضعیف روابط و متغیرهای «سازمان های منطقه ای حوزه خلیج فارس و کشورهای عربی» و «تشکیل شورای همکاری عراق- عربستان» بیشترین تاثیر را در بهبود روابط دو کشور داشته اند. در بعد اقتصادی، متغیرهای «بازگشایی گذرگاه های مرزی و احداث منطقه اقتصادی آزاد» و همچنین متغیر «تامین نیازهای عراق از عربستان» بیشترین تاثیر را در بهبود روابط داشته اند و متغیر با تاثیر منفی باتوجه به مقدار کمتر آن از حد استاندارد تایید نشده است. درنهایت در بعد فرهنگی متغیرهای «فرهنگ و زبان مشترک (ملی گرایی عربی)» و متغیر «حضور عراقی ها در مراسم حج» در بهبود روابط دو کشور تاثیر مثبت داشته و متغیر «حمایت عربستان از اهل سنت در عراق» و متغیر «اکثریت جمعیت شیعی عراق» نقش منفی در روابط دو کشور داشته است.
کلیدواژگان: سیاست خارجی، روابط بین الملل، ژئوپلیتیک، عربستان سعودی، عراق -
صفحات 195-234
قبرس به واسطه جایگاه ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواستراتژیک اش در منطقه مدیترانه شرقی و مجاورت جغرافیایی با سه قاره آسیا، اروپا و آفریقا همواره مورد توجه بازیگران منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای بوده است. رژیم صهیونیستی نیز از این قاعده مستثنی نبوده و سعی دارد قدرت خود را با برقراری روابط راهبردی با جمهوری قبرس بیشینه سازی کند. بر همین اساس، مقاله حاضر با به کارگیری چهارچوب نظری رئالیسم تهاجمی و با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی به دنبال پاسخ دادن به این پرسش اصلی است که جمهوری قبرس چه مزیتهای راهبردی می تواند برای رژیم صهیونیستی داشته باشد؟ یافته های پژوهش با بررسی ابعاد سه گانه همکاریهای امنیتی- اطلاعاتی، نظامی و انرژی بین رژیم صهیونیستی و جمهوری قبرس نشان می دهد که این رژیم در چهارچوب مشارکت استراتژیک با قبرس، درصدد افزایش عمق استراتژیک اش برای ارتقای میزان تاب آوری، انعطاف پذیری و قدرت نظامی اش است. رژیم صهیونیستی از بدو اشغال فلسطین تاکنون، به قبرس به عنوان راه تنفسی غیراسلامی و غیرعربی نگریسته که تحت سلطه قدرت های جهانی مانند آمریکا و انگلیس است و از این جزیره برای فرار از انزوای منطقه ای، افزایش قدرت و نفوذ سیاسی، امنیتی، نظامی و اقتصادی بهره برده است.
کلیدواژگان: رژیم صهیونیستی، جمهوری قبرس، رئالیسم تهاجمی، مدیترانه شرقی -
صفحات 235-260این مقاله جایگاه دیپلماسی علم و فناوری در سیاست همسایگی جمهوری اسلامی ایران را بررسی می کند. دیپلماسی علم و فناوری به عنوان ابزاری موثر در تقویت روابط بین المللی و کاهش اختلافات منطقه ای می تواند نقش قابل توجهی در بهبود تعاملات ایران با کشورهای همسایه ایفا کند. ایران به دلیل موقعیت جغرافیایی و شرایط ژئوپلیتیک خاص خود، همواره با چالش ها و فرصت های مختلفی در روابط با همسایگانش مواجه بوده است. در این مقاله، به این مسئله پرداخته می شود که چگونه بهره گیری از ظرفیت های علمی و فناوری های پیشرفته، ازجمله صادرات دانش فنی و همکاری های علمی، می تواند به کاهش تنش ها و ایجاد هم گرایی در منطقه کمک کند. همچنین به نقش دیپلماسی علم و فناوری در تقویت توسعه پایدار و امنیت منطقه ای پرداخته شده است. هدف اصلی مقاله بررسی این موضوع است که چگونه ایران می تواند از دیپلماسی علم و فناوری به عنوان ابزاری موثر برای تقویت سیاست همسایگی و افزایش همکاری های چندجانبه با کشورهای منطقه بهره برداری کند.کلیدواژگان: دیپلماسی علم و فناوری، همکاری های فناوری، سیاست همسایگی، همکاری های منطقه ای
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صفحات 261-283
جمهوری اسلامی ایران با عملیات وعده صادق در مواجهه با راهبرد رژیم صهیونیستی مبتنی بر ضربه شوک آور و دکترین اقدام پیش دستانه در حمله به بخش کنسولی ایران در دمشق، به عنوان جوهره راهبرد تل آویو، ضمن به چالش کشیدن راهبرد رژیم صهیونیستی، پیامدهای راهبردی مهمی را در عمق بخشی داخلی و خارجی انقلاب اسلامی با دو هدف کسب منافع امنیت ملی و دفع تهدیدات انقلاب اسلامی همراه داشته است که لازم است مولفه های آن تبیین شود. نوع تحقیق از نظر هدف، کاربردی و توسعه ای و دارای ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی است. رویکرد روش شناسی تحقیق، آمیخته اکتشافی است و جامعه خبرگی این تحقیق شامل خبرگان دفاعی و امنیتی و راهبردی کشور و نمونه خبرگی شامل 14 نفر از خبرگان دارای تحصیلات دکتری در حوزه های مرتبط با امنیت ملی، راهبرد و علوم سیاسی دارای حداقل 20 سال تجربه و مسئولیت در حوزه اجرایی مرتبط و به صورت هدفمند تا سطح اشباع نظری است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده های گردآوری شده از تحلیل مضامین برای دسته بندی و طبقه بندی عناصر تحقیق و از تحلیل های آماری با آزمون هایی چون ضریب لاوشه، میانگین رتبه ای با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS و برای بررسی روایی و پایایی از فاکتورهای آلفای کرونباخ و پایایی ترکیبی استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق شامل تاثیر عملیات وعده صادق در 5 مولفه داخلی و 11 مولفه خارجی عمق بخشی انقلاب اسلامی شامل تاکید بر لزوم وجود رهبری حکیم و شجاع در جامعه، افزایش سرمایه اجتماعی نیروهای مسلح، ارتقای غرور ملی، انتقال پیام نفی سلطه جویی و سلطه پذیری به جامعه جهانی، موثر در کاهش یا تغییر رویکرد تقابل و رقابت برخی کشورها در منطقه و غیره است.
کلیدواژگان: عملیات وعده صادق، عمق بخشی راهبردی، انقلاب اسلامی -
صفحات 285-307
درسال های اخیر، هوش مصنوعی تغییرات چشمگیری در حوزه های مختلف زندگی بشر ایجاد کرده و احساسات متفاوتی نسبت به آینده آن در دولت ها و جوامع به وجود آورده است. از مهم ترین حوزه های حیاتی که تحت تاثیر این تحولات قرار گرفته، مسئله جنگ و امنیت است. ظهور فناوری هوش مصنوعی نه تنها مزایای قابل توجهی برای دولت ها به همراه داشته، بلکه نگرانی هایی جدی درباره تهدیدات امنیتی نیز ایجاد کرده است. ازاین رو، شناخت دقیق ابعاد و پیامدهای هوش مصنوعی در این زمینه برای مدیریت و پیش بینی شرایط آینده ضروری است. براین اساس، سوال اصلی که دغدغه انجام این پژوهش بوده عبارت است از اینکه از نگاه اسناد رژیم صهیونیستی، هوش مصنوعی چه تاثیری در ماهیت جنگ دارد؟ برای پاسخ به این سوال با یاری اندیشه های کارل فون کلاوزویتس[1] که معتقد بود ماهیت جنگ همچون مثلثی دارای سه ضلع است که اضلاع آن عبارت است از خشونت، شانس و احتمال و سیاسی بودن، محتوای اسناد این رژیم را بررسی و تحلیل کرده و با استفاده از نرم افزار مکس کیودی ای کدگذاری کرده و پس از آن، تحلیل محتوای کیفی انجام شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که از نگاه اسناد راهبردی رژیم صهیونیستی، سه شاخص ماهیت جنگ کلاوزویتس تحت تاثیر هوش مصنوعی دچار تغییرات مثبت و منفی می شود. این تغییرات نشان دهنده آن است که هوش مصنوعی می تواند تمامی ابعاد جنگ را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد و ماهیت آن را در چهارچوب جدیدی که تکنولوژی های پیشرفته تعریف می کنند، بازتعریف کند.
کلیدواژگان: هوش مصنوعی، جنگ، خشونت، سیاست، احتمال -
صفحات 309-332
انقلاب اسلامی ایران به عنوان یکی از رویدادهای مهم و تاثیرگذار قرن بیستم شناخته می شود، زیرا نه تنها تحولات عمیقی در سیاست داخلی ایران به وجود آورد، بلکه آرمان ها و اهداف این انقلاب تاثیرات گسترده ای در سیاست خارجی کشور و تحولات منطقه ای، به ویژه در غرب آسیا، داشته است. یکی از مهم ترین پیامدهای انقلاب اسلامی شکل گیری محور مقاومت است که به عنوان یک الگوی جدید در تعاملات سیاسی و نظامی در منطقه ظاهر شده و تاثیرات عمیق تری در تغییر معادلات قدرت و ساختارهای منطقه ای داشته است. حال برای بررسی چگونگی تاثیرگذاری محور مقاومت در منطقه غرب آسیا این پژوهش درصدد آن است تا موضوع را واکاوی کند. سوال اصلی این است که تاثیر محور مقاومت در تغییر راهبردها و توازن قدرت در منطقه غرب آسیا (2023-2011) چه بوده است؟ فرضیه عبارت است از اینکه محور مقاومت با ایجاد اتحادهای استراتژیک و گسترش نفوذ ایران در کشورهای منطقه، به تغییر راهبردهای بازیگران فرامنطقه ای و بازتعریف توازن قدرت در غرب آسیا کمک کرده، درنتیجه، منجر به شکست راهبردهای غربی در شکل دهی و تثبیت نظم منطقه ای شده است. این پژوهش با استفاده از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و گردآوری اسناد کتابخانه ای انجام شده است. درنهایت، نتایج نشان می دهد که محور مقاومت در هر مرحله تحول نظم منطقه ای با به چالش کشیدن نظم غربی نه تنها به گسترش نفوذ ایران و حمایت از گروه های وابسته در کشورهای مختلف کمک کرده، بلکه زمینه ساز یک نظم جدید و چندقطبی در این منطقه شده است.
کلیدواژگان: غرب آسیا، ایران، محور مقاومت، امنیت
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Pages 1-26Introduction
National interests, as common and long-term goals of the state and nation pursued in the global arena, shape the orientation of foreign policy of countries; the most important of these goals are the preservation of independence, territorial integrity, national sovereignty, social system, security and welfare of citizens. With the 1979 revolution, political elites presented a new definition of national interests in the form of the ideology of the system, which was incompatible with the norms and requirements of the structure of the international system. Accordingly, it is necessary to conduct the following research so that through such a way, the country's diplomatic apparatus can reconstruct itself theoretically to secure national interests. The authors intend to conduct a realistic reinterpretation of the country's national interests by taking a look at the idealistic and ideological definitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran of national interests on the one hand and paying attention to the objective developments that have brought today's world to the "post-ideological" era on the other. In this regard, the main question of the research is: Given the incompatibility of national interests with the structure of the international system, what strategy in the field of foreign policy can best serve the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The main hypothesis is based on the fact that in the political structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, national interests consist of two parts: subjective and objective. Creating a balance and equilibrium between these two parts provides the basis for securing and continuing national interests.
Research MethodThe research ahead is a theoretical/applied research that uses the theoretical foundations of pragmatism to explain the subject of the research, and the research method is qualitative content analysis. In this research, three categories of variables play a role; the independent variable is the realist structure of the international system. The dependent variable is the foreign policy strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The intervening variable itself is divided into two parts: A - The internal intervening variable, which is the continuation of the ideological strategy in the structure of the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. B - The external intervening variable will be the action and reaction between the forces interested in the discourse of the Islamic Revolution and the international system. Therefore, the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran are located in the center of a square whose sides are domestic policy, foreign policy, ideology, and the international system.
Discussion and ConclusionThe four main characteristics that are effective in formulating the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and give direction to its foreign policy are: "independence and negation of domination", "Islamic globalization", "Islamic internationalism", "anti-hegemonicism" (Mahmoudikia and Dehshiri, 29:2010-22). In total, by considering two factors, a general understanding of the nature of the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran can be achieved, including: first; the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran and second; the perspective of its leaders.A - The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran:The highest goals and ideals that constitute the main infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran's government's grand planning in the field of foreign policy are stated in Article 3 of the Constitution as follows:- Complete rejection of colonialism and prevention of foreign influence;- Elimination of any tyranny, autocracy and monopolization;- Development and consolidation of Islamic brotherhood and general cooperation among all people;and most importantly, "Regulating the country's foreign policy based on the standards of Islam, fraternal commitment to all Muslims and unwavering support for the oppressed of the world."B - The leaders' perspective:B 1- Imam Khomeini: Imam Khomeini does not recognize the definitions of the term "national interests" in the literature of politics and international relations and offers a new explanation of national interests. The main axis of Imam Khomeini's political strategy, on which the definition of national interests is also based, is political Islam. Accordingly, he considers securing the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran dependent on the interests of the Islamic Ummah.B 2 - Ayatollah Khamenei: Regarding national interests, Ayatollah Khamenei's view is not much different from that of Imam Khomeini. In general, his view on national interests can be explained around several elements:- National interests as a religious identity- National interests as a revolutionary identity- Compatibility of the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the national interests of other Muslims- Synchronization of ideology and national interests in the diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of IranThe national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran are in conflict in two areas:A - Incompatibility of idealism with realismB - Incompatibility of ideology and rationalityThe incompatibility of the national interests of the Islamic Republic with the international system has faced the country with serious challenges at three levels: national, regional and global.
ConclusionThe incompatibility of national interests in the dictionary of the Islamic Republic of Iran with national interests in the global system is natural because this incompatibility is rooted in the deep difference between the principles governing the international system and the Islamic principles and ideals and revolutionary values governing the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What solution can be adopted in such circumstances? Obviously, a solution must be adopted that, while maintaining ideological ideals, also resolves the incompatibility with the international system. The proposed solution is the application of a result-oriented pragmatism approach. Based on this approach, prior beliefs about national interests and foreign policy must be reviewed or de-prioritized so that posterior beliefs that are the result of practical interactions between the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the international system can replace them. The axis of achieving such an understanding is this principle: "What is true is put into practice and what is put into practice is true." In this approach, it is sufficient for the Islamic Republic of Iran to update its reading of the ideal, classify its ideals based on the criterion of "practicality or impracticability" and give priority to practical goals. The Islamic Republic of Iran would do better to make the most of its relative advantage in the field of soft power and its relative advantage in the cultural field, rather than focusing on a military approach that is not a suitable basis for creating a balance of power with regional and global powers.
Keywords: National Interests, Foreign Policy, Ideology, Pragmatism, Islamic Republic Of Iran -
Pages 27-53
On October 7, 2023, the Hamas movement changed the paradigm of resistance from a defensive to an offensive approach for the first time in a surprise operation and attacked Zionist positions in a broad and rapid operation, which had tremendous political, security and military consequences for the region. On the one hand, this issue became a pretext for the Zionists to launch extensive retaliatory operations against Palestinian civilian positions, in such a way that the widespread killing of Palestinians and the bombing of civilian areas were carried out by the Zionists on a much larger scale than before. On the other hand, terrorist acts were carried out against scientific and military elites and officers of the Resistance Front from Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Hamas on several occasions and in different places, including the assassination of 7 Iranian military officers in the country's embassy in Damascus, Syria. Such actions once again started the cycle of security-political crisis between the Resistance Front and Israel against each other with greater intensity, so that this time the Islamic Republic of Iran launched extensive missile attacks against the occupied territories from within its borders for the first time, an action that remained fruitless despite the mediation of many regional and extra-regional powers. The peak of the aforementioned crisis was Israel's subsequent action in assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas movement, in Tehran and at the inauguration ceremony of the president,Massoud Pezeshkian an action that will certainly have very wide security-political consequences.The importance of this issue can be examined and analyzed from several aspects. First, the occurrence of any extensive battle will open the door for other countries to this issue. For example, the United States and many European countries, which areconsidered strategic allies of Israel, have committed themselves to supporting this regime, whether in terms of military force or logistical equipment, and on the other hand, the pragmatic unity of the Resistance Front from Ansarullah of Yemen to the Popular Mobilization Forces of Iraq, Hezbollah of Lebanon, Syria, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially in the Islamic rearmament and the acquisition of advanced, long-range missiles and extensive military force, along with the implicit support of Russia, will openly achieve a trans-regional war. The second importance is to examine the economic security situation and energy corridors of the region. Any long-term war will result in a dramatic increase in oil and gas prices, and given the Islamic Republic's naval dominance in the Persian Gulf, this will cause a major shake-up of the world's energy economy. As the Yemeni Ansarullah movement has shown on several occasions by seizing the economic and commercial ships of the Zionists and Americans, if the widespread attacks on the Yemenis are not stopped, widespread maritime insecurity will befall them. Third, “Toofan Al-Aqsa” and Operation True Promise operations have shown that the paradigm of struggle by the resistance will no longer lead to merely deterrent, limited, and defensive measures against Israeli actions, as in the past. Rather, any action by Israel will be responded to with a similar and even more extensive action by the Resistance Front.With these brief introductions, the present article, using the interpretive method and the theory of the crisis cycle of Miles Hogg, has devoted its efforts to the study, analysis, and examination of the main question: How can the security crisis cycle in the relations between Israel and the Resistance Front be analyzed and evaluated realistically, with an emphasis on the years 2023 to 2024, that is, from “Toofan Al-Aqsa” Operation to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh? The research findings showed that the security relations between Israel and the Resistance Front were analyzed from “Toofan Al-Aqsa” Operation to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and based on the security crisis. Based on Miles Hogg's theory of the crisis cycle, the present study discussed and evaluated the aforementioned security crisis in a periodic or cyclical process. The results showed that in the first stage or historical aftermath of the crisis, the ideological conflict between Zionist Jews (based on the leadership, sovereignty, and superiority of the Jewish people and that they are the heirs of the Middle East region) and Shiite Islam (the principle of resistance and struggle against enemies and the effort to establish a just regional and international government and ultimately paving the way for the emergence of the savior of the end times) is the main factor in the historical aftermath of this crisis. In the development stage of the crisis, a series of events leading to Islamic post-war revival were discussed and examined, such as Israel's influence on the emergence and strength of Takfiri terrorist groups, the Abraham Accords in the form of Arab-Israeli peace, the extensive military attacks of this regime on the Palestinian people, and the lack of guarantees for implementation and the ability of international legal-political organizations and institutions to condemn and deter Israel's actions. In the collision or confrontation stage, the authors addressed important issues such as “Toofan Al-Aqsa” Operation on October 7, 2023, the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Operation True Promise, and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Finally, in the mediation or mediation stage, the limited actions of Qatar and some other countries in the region and the world, as well as the threats of the United States against the Resistance Front to a military presence in the region, were discussed and examined. Finally, the authors explained the consequences of this issue at both the micro and macro levels and showed that at the micro level, the intensification of militarism and efforts to fully equip the Middle East region, as well as the occurrence of widespread insecurity in the energy sectors, and at the macro level, two important consequences of changing the Iranian nuclear doctrine and transforming the security crisis of Israel and the Resistance Front into a full-fledged trans-regional one, seem likely in the not-too-distant future.
Keywords: Ismail Haniyeh, Offensive Deterrence, Resistance Front, Operation Al-Aqsa, Operation True Promise -
Pages 55-86
The foreign policy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Africa can be explained from various dimensions. In this article, the author explains the UAE's foreign policy in Africa based on the country's grand strategy documents (official and public documents). By studying these documents, we can gain a deeper understanding of the motivations, strategies, actions, and impacts of the UAE's foreign policy in Africa. Ultimately, this leads to a better understanding of the interactive patterns of the UAE with various African countries. These documents, which include strategic frameworks and initiatives, aim to delineate the UAE's goals and interests in foreign policy across multiple domains—political, economic, security-military, and cultural—in Africa. This research seeks to answer the question: how can the UAE's foreign policy in Africa be explained through its grand strategic documents? (while presenting an extracted model for the UAE's foreign policy objectives in Africa), the proposed hypothesis is that the central aim of all UAE documents and initiatives in Africa is ultimately economic development on the continent, with improving the lives of African people at its core.To test the hypothesis, in the first step, the UAE's high-level documents are examined, and in the second step, the country's initiatives in Africa are reviewed. under each document, the intended objectives are explained, particularly focusing on economicobjectives and contributing to improving the quality of life for people. In the third step, an interpretive conceptual model is extracted, and finally, a conclusion will be presented.
Methodology:
The methodology employed in this article is the objective analysis method. This involves analyzing objectives derived from studying initiatives, programs, and documents designed by the government of the United Arab Emirates. This approach is particularly useful when the researcher lacks direct access to the individuals, groups, and organizations. In such cases, studying their plans, programs, and documents can reveal their objectives and motivations.Studying high-level documents can help better understand the foundations, objectives, strategies, and frameworks of foreign policy by identifying fundamental principles, values, broad objectives, grand strategies and policies, coherence and coordination between domestic and foreign policies, priorities, developmental approaches as well as establishing legal frameworks for foreign policy. This can clarify the trajectory of foreign policy and its underlying principles.
Results and Discussion
UAE Top Documents The UAE has developed numerous strategies and documents to advance its foreign policy objectives and interests. As previously mentioned, under the leadership of Mohammed bin Zayed, the country has implemented significant changes in its regional and international policies. The UAE has formulated several strategies to achieve its foreign policy goals, focusing on stability, economic growth, technological innovation, and social development. By creating multiple strategies and documents, the UAE aims to increase its influence at both regional and international levels. The country seeks to its national interest and To be recognized as a key player in the Middle East through security cooperation, active economic diplomacy, and interventionist policies. Key strategic documents and visions that influence the UAE's objectives and foreign policy interests include: Economic Vision 2030 "We the UAE 2031" Projects of the 50 Vision 2050 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) UAE Initiatives for Africa The UAE outlines its engagement with African countries through various foreign policy documents and strategic initiatives. The UAE has been actively involved with Africa through different initiatives and documents to achieve its objectives. The following are some key documents and initiatives:UAE Consortium for Africa Support for G5 Sahel Joint Force Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM for Climate) Food and Agriculture Organization’s “Hand-in-Hand” Initiative UAE-Africa Connect Written Statement to the UN Security CounciConclusionsThe UAE's objectives in Africa can be broadly categorized into four main areas: security-military, political-diplomatic, cultural, and economic. However, the central goal of all UAE initiatives in Africa is ultimately economic development, with the improvement of African people's lives at its core. If these objectives are visualized in concentric circles, security and military goals would form the outermost circle. Moving inward, the next objectives would be political-diplomatic and cultural, with economic goals closest to the center, aimed at achieving the central objective of enhancing the quality of life for African people. These concentric circles can be illustrated by combining the important goal of "preserving and enhancing stability" into a model.The arrangement of these layers does not mean that one area is more important or has higher priority than another in the political relationship process between the UAE and other African countries. Rather, it means that all objectives are aligned to achieve the central goal of economic development, ultimately improving the quality of life for African people. This "concentric circle model" illustrates a reciprocal, interactive, and synergistic structure among all dimensions. This multi-layered model represents a complex structure where each layer influences the ones above it. Through efforts to enhance the quality of life for people, the UAE aims to create a positive and reasonable image of itself among African countries and the international community.The UAE has adopted a comprehensive and strategic approach to engaging with Africa, which can be seen as part of its broader grand strategy for the continent. This approach includes various initiatives across diverse sectors, reflecting the UAE's long-term vision for its role in African development and its geopolitical position. Based on the study of UAE's high-level documents and initiatives, it can be said that the central goal of all UAE's security-military, political-diplomatic, cultural, and economic initiatives in Africa is ultimately economic development, with the improvement of African people's lives at its core. The UAE's multidimensional approach to Africa, including economic investments, strategic partnerships, military cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives, clearly demonstrates a well-calculated grand strategy. These tactics are designed to position the UAE as a key player in Africa's development landscape, secure its economic interest, and enhance its global geopolitical standing.Through this approach, the UAE aims to present itself as an important, reliable, strategic, and benevolent economic partner in Africa's economic development and humanitarian efforts. The UAE's approach in providing financial investments and humanitarian aid portrays it as a committed, multi-dimensional ally dedicated to Africa's long-term welfare and future, a mid-tier global power with significant influence beyond its region, and a model for other Persian Gulf countries on how to use economic diplomacy to strengthen regional influence and security.While this grand strategy and vision have been promising, its long-term success depends on how effectively the UAE navigates the complex political and economic landscape of Africa, balances its interests with those of African countries, and addresses criticisms and challenges it faces. These challenges include accusations of neo-colonialism and exploitative economic arrangements, concerns over human rights issues, support for leaders with bad records in Africa, and potential conflicts with the interests of other regional powers such as Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. However, in general, what is important is that the development of numerous, diverse, and specialized documents across various fields and regions by the UAE can serve as a model for other countries.
Keywords: Foreign Policy, United Arab Emirates, Africa, Concentric Goals, Interests, Hedging Strategy -
Pages 87-111
The conflict between Turkey and the Kurds is a deeply rooted issue that has posed a significant challenge to the Turkish state since its inception. The emergence of Kurdish identity, in opposition to the principles of Kemalism, which emphasized Turkish nationalism, led to the marginalization of Kurds within Turkey. This dynamic was further exacerbated by the actions of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), despite its initial attempts to modify the Kemalist approach to ethnic minorities. The AKP government's objectives included seeking membership in the European Union, improving relations with neighboring countries, and establishing Turkey as a prominent regional power. This strategy involved increasing soft power through democratization, resolving conflicts with neighbors, and enhancing Turkey's security. However, a discrepancy between Turkey's capabilities and resources, and its international commitments, has resulted in a widespread sense of siege, retreat, and isolation, hindering the government's ability to normalize relations with the Kurds. This research aims to analyze the Turkish government's policies towards the Kurdish minority and explore the underlying reasons for the ongoing conflict. The central question is: Why did the reforms implemented by the AKP to integrate Kurdish identity into a national unit fail, and why did the Turkish government resort to military suppression of the Kurds once again? The hypothesis suggests that these reforms failed due to Turkey's inability to address the post-Kemalist identity review of ethnic minorities, particularly the Kurds. The theoretical basis of this research is constructivism, examining the roles of structure and agency in the interactive processes of governance and power. The research methodology is descriptive, utilizing data gathered from library and online resources, including articles, books, and analyses. The analysis highlights that the emphasis on Turkish nationalism and the historical legacy of the Ottoman Empire within Kemalism, the ideological foundation of the political coalition in the Turkish government, led to stringent national policies regarding ethnic minorities. The suppression of Kurdish identity-seeking activities and the restriction of their political and cultural autonomy have been key approaches in this area. The dominant identity in Turkey has historically been unwilling to officially recognize a distinct ethnic minority called Kurds. With the rise of the AKP, there was a move towards a multicultural approach consistent with neo-Ottomanism in dealing with minorities, opening the door to a multicultural conceptualization of Turkish citizenship. Contrary to Kemalist nationalist behavior, as long as minorities demonstrated loyalty to the Republic of Turkey, their cultural rights and expressions of national identity were not seen as major threats. However, when faced with the cultural and political demands of the Kurds, the ruling party sought to secure these rights within the framework of multiculturalism and Islamic identity. Accordingly, there were efforts to modify behavior towards the Kurds, promote the use of the Kurdish language, engage in official negotiations with Kurdish leaders, and foster economic and political relations with the independent Kurdish government in Iraq, as well as cooperate against the PKK with Syria after 2015. This process of de-escalation was ultimately unsuccessful due to internal contradictions within the Turkish government. These contradictions included the ongoing challenge from the Turkish military, which adhered to Kemalist ideology; the AKP's own internal divisions, which led it to use opposition to the Kurds to gain parliamentary victories; and the military attacks on Kurdish-controlled areas in Syria, ostensibly to fight the PKK. This dynamic brought the issue of identity reconsideration in the face of Kurdish nationalism to a head. According to structural analysis, the Turkification of Kurdish identity has consistently been a major factor in the armed struggles of the Kurds, particularly through the PKK. It is essential for the Turkish government to recognize that effective policymaking and the prevention of current tensions between the Turkish government and Kurdish military forces depend on considering the official existence of Kurdish identity. An identity reconstruction that does not include these and similar issues will face resistance from the Kurds. Therefore, the policies of the AKP, while seemingly emphasizing the redefinition of national identity based on pluralistic principles, are still heavily influenced by the spirit of Kemalism. This underlying tension between an apparent desire for pluralism and the deep-rooted adherence to Turkish nationalism has hindered meaningful progress in resolving the conflict. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing military actions against Kurdish groups in neighboring countries, particularly in Syria and Iraq, and the Turkish government's perception of these groups as threats to national security. These actions, while ostensibly aimed at combating the PKK, often result in civilian casualties and further alienate the Kurdish population. The history of conflict between the Turkish state and the Kurds includes significant events like the 1925 Sheikh Said rebellion, and subsequent uprisings in the 1930s, which were met with severe military crackdowns and the suppression of Kurdish cultural expression. The Turkish government's approach has often been to deny the existence of a distinct Kurdish identity and to characterize the Kurdish issue as a problem caused by external factors, like the influence of neighboring countries. This denial has fueled further unrest and created a cycle of violence. The PKK, formed in the late 1970s, has been a central element of this conflict, engaging in armed struggle for greater Kurdish autonomy. Despite periods of ceasefire and peace negotiations, the conflict continues due to a lack of fundamental change in the Turkish government's approach to Kurdish identity and rights. The ongoing tensions also highlight the complex geopolitical considerations, with Turkey viewing Kurdish groups in neighboring countries with suspicion, while these same groups are sometimes allies of western powers. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the degree of influence Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, still has on the organization and whether he can meaningfully contribute to any peace process. The conflict is exacerbated by the use of military force and airstrikes by the Turkish military in the region, which has often led to civilian deaths and injuries. The Turkish government's attempts to establish itself as a regional power have also complicated the issue, as its pursuit of strategic interests has sometimes been at odds with the pursuit of a peaceful resolution to the Kurdish question. Ultimately, the persistent conflict between Turkey and the Kurds is a result of Turkey's inability to reconcile its unitary national identity with the demands of its Kurdish population for recognition, autonomy, and cultural rights. The failure of the AKP's reforms can be attributed to the deep-rooted influence of Kemalist ideology, the internal contradictions within the ruling party, and the complex regional dynamics, which all have contributed to a cycle of violence and instability. A lasting resolution requires a fundamental shift in the Turkish government's approach, one that moves beyond suppression and towards genuine recognition and acceptance of Kurdish identity and rights. This will necessitate a significant change in how the Turkish state constructs its national identity and how it views the role and place of ethnic minorities within its borders.
Keywords: Turkey, Justice, Development Party, Kurds, Kemalism, Identity Seeking -
Pages 113-137
In the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century, few nations have ascended as dramatically as China. Over the past few decades, China has transitioned from a largely agrarian economy to a dominant global economic powerhouse, now recognized as the second-largest economy in the world after the United States. This rapid economic development is accompanied by a commensurate rise in political clout, elevating China’s status as a central player in international relations. As a result, China’s role in the global order has undergone a significant transformation, influencing not only its regional neighbors but also the broader international community. This shift has profound implications, particularly for entities like the European Union (EU), which find themselves navigating new and complex dynamics in the face of China’s growing influence.The European Union, as a unique political and economic entity composed of multiple member states, possesses a diverse range of interests and challenges in its relations with China. The EU's approach to China is shaped by its dual objectives on one hand, to harness the economic opportunities presented by a burgeoning Chinese market and, on the other, to address pressing concerns related to human rights violations, security threats, and the broader geopolitical ramifications of China’s actions. The EU has embarked on a nuanced strategy to engage with China, seeking to balance economic cooperation with the need to uphold its values and principles, particularly in response to issues such as civil liberties, environmental standards, and the territorial integrity of nations.This evolving relationship between the EU and China is not without its challenges. The EU must navigate a landscape filled with competing interests, both internally and externally. Member states of the EU have divergent views toward China based on their historical ties, economic dependencies, and individual strategic priorities. This fragmentation poses a significant challenge to forging a cohesive and effective European strategy toward China. Furthermore, the rise of nationalism and populism within several EU member states complicates the landscape, as these political movements often advocate for a more cautious or confrontational stance toward external powers, including China.Parallel to these dynamics is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which finds itself in a unique position due to its strategic geographic location and vast natural resource wealth, particularly in oil and gas. Iran has recognized the potential benefits of fostering closer ties with China within the broader context of its foreign policy. The historical animosities stemming from Western sanctions have led Iran to seek alternative partnerships to bolster its economy and enhance its geopolitical standing. In recent years, Iran has made significant strides in deepening its engagements with China, viewing it as a priority partner capable of counterbalancing Western influence and providing vital economic support.This burgeoning relationship is particularly pronounced in light of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Although the deal faced significant challenges, particularly after the United States’ withdrawal in 2018, China emerged as a crucial player in supporting Iran diplomatically and economically. Beijing’s involvement has fueled expectations in Tehran regarding Chinese investment in infrastructure, energy projects, and trade relations. As Iran grapples with the ramifications of international sanctions, the potential for a mutually beneficial partnership with China has become increasingly attractive.However, this deepening relationship is not without its complexities and potential pitfalls. The shifting dynamics of international politics, including the EU's recalibration of its foreign policy toward China, could significantly impact Iran’s strategic calculations. As the EU seeks to reassert its influence in Asia through initiatives like the Global Gateway and its own Indo-Pacific strategy, Iran may face new diplomatic challenges. The EU is likely to weigh its economic interests in China against the value of a principled stance on issues like human rights and regional security, potentially complicating Iran's position.Moreover, the broader geopolitical landscape marked by the U.S.-China rivalry adds another layer of complexity to the EU-Iran-China triangle. As the United States attempts to counter China's growing influence, it may adopt strategies that compel its allies, including EU members, to reassess their relationships with China. This could force Iran to navigate tenuous waters, balancing its partnerships with both China and the EU while remaining vigilant about being caught in the crossfire of great power competition.This multifaceted interaction between the EU, China, and Iran brings us to the core objectives of this research. The first objective is to analyze the key political and economic strategies that the EU employs in its dealings with China. This investigation will focus on the EU's engagements, including trade partnerships, investment agreements, and collaborative initiatives aimed at addressing global challenges such as climate change and public health. Understanding these strategies allows for a comprehensive assessment of how the EU seeks to influence China while safeguarding its interests.The second objective centers on examining the implications of the EU’s China policies on Iran's foreign and economic strategies. This involves scrutinizing how shifts in the EU’s approach toward China could impact Iran’s attempts to leverage its relations with Beijing for economic gains and strategic support in the context of its broader geopolitical ambitions. It is essential to consider how Iran perceives the EU’s stance toward China and whether this perception translates into strategic adjustments in its own foreign policy.Ultimately, this research aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay among these three important geopolitical actors. By delving into the evolving relationships between the EU, China, and Iran, we can shed light on the possible future trajectories of their interactions and the impacts on regional and global stability. The goal is to offer insights that not only inform scholars and policymakers but also contribute to a more comprehensive dialogue about the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in this dynamic triad.
Keywords: Iran, European Union, China, Political, Economic -
Pages 139-164The emergence of new security threats and the concept of comprehensive security have presented significant challenges to regional actors. Over the past decade, cyberspace has become one of the most critical battlegrounds. While offering immense opportunities for humanity, it has also introduced novel threats and serious challenges to human security. Israel, recognizing the importance of cyberspace, has invested heavily in both defensive and offensive strategies to address its geopolitical vulnerabilities. This study aims to explore the role of cyberspace in Israel’s military strategies by analysing its strategic documents. The findings reveal that Israel has established close collaboration between military-security institutions and private cybersecurity companies, creating a unified framework to address both offensive and defensive dimensions. This approach has enabled Israel to control cyber threats effectively and establish cyber deterrence. With the expansion of globalization, the technological revolution, and the pervasive influence of the internet across all aspects of governance, economy, and culture, cybersecurity has emerged as a central focus of security studies. The rise of new threats and opportunities in this domain has compelled states to establish regulatory frameworks and policy measures to maintain stability and manage crises. In international relations, cybersecurity encompasses a set of policies, decision-making processes, and strategies aimed at identifying, monitoring, and mitigating cyber threats. In today’s world, cybersecurity has become a necessity for states, and effective governance is impossible without considering this domain. Deterrence, a key security strategy, is applicable in military, missile, space, and cyber domains. This theory initially emerged during the Cold War to describe the impact of nuclear weapons in preventing direct conflict. Today, the concept of deterrence has expanded to include economic, informational, espionage, technological, and media tools, referred to as modern deterrence. The characteristics of cyber deterrence include its punitive nature, whereby a nation’s cyber capabilities can instill fear in adversaries and deter hostile actions. Moreover, cyber deterrence extends beyond the cyber domain, as it can also prevent adversaries from engaging in physical, missile, and espionage attacks. Additionally, this strategy allows for responses to security-military threats to be carried out both traditionally (militarily) and through cyber means. Consequently, the cyber domain has not only become a new arena for security-military competition but has also provided new tools for establishing deterrence at the international level. Israel has strategically planned its cyber policies across four dimensions: economic, military-intelligence, social, and political. By leveraging its cyber capabilities, Israel has expanded its intelligence, espionage, and sabotage operations regionally and globally. The unique characteristics of cyberspace, such as its vast networked infrastructure and high-speed data transmission, have allowed Israel to enhance its military capabilities and shift the balance of power. Facing existential threats, Israel has prioritized cyberspace, making substantial investments in this domain. With 12% of the world’s top 500 cybersecurity companies and 470 active start-ups, Israel is the second-largest cybersecurity hub globally. In 2021, its cybersecurity exports were three times higher than those of the UK. Cyberspace comprises three layers—human, software, and physical—each of which can be targeted for offensive or defensive purposes. Cyberattacks can manipulate user behaviour, infiltrate software for espionage, or disrupt physical infrastructure, such as power plants or aviation systems. This study examines Israel’s strategic documents and its offensive and defensive cyber strategies. The hypothesis is that Israel has implemented comprehensive strategies by coordinating military-security institutions and private companies, effectively controlling cyber threats. Israel’s cyber strategies are analysed across four dimensions, and its capabilities have enabled it to expand its intelligence, espionage, and sabotage operations globally. The research methodology is based on document analysis and descriptive research, with findings presented in five sections: the role of cyberspace in Israel’s strategic documents, defensive and offensive approaches, workforce development, and cyberspace’s role in Israel’s broader military strategies. Given the diverse security threats it faces, the strategic importance of cyberspace, and its heavy reliance on the presence and management of this domain, Israel has adopted two overarching approaches in its cybersecurity documents: cyber defence and cyber offense. In analysing Israel’s strategic documents, cyberspace is characterized by several components, including a domain for foreign infiltration and attacks, a tool for effective governance and management, a driver of economic development and growth, and a factor contributing to social welfare and stability. However, the most prominent and significant component among these diverse aspects is the emphasis on defence and military affairs. Numerous governmental and private institutions in Israel operate in the defensive sphere of cyberspace. The entities responsible for cybersecurity in the regime aim to monitor and control institutions that provide essential services in the occupied territories and are responsible for the administrative procedures and daily lives of the residents. Consequently, attacks on these institutions impact public morale, order, governance methods, and the regime’s legitimacy. From Israel’s perspective, as briefly outlined in its strategic and high-level documents, the sources of cyber threats are multifaceted and include non-aligned countries, hostile governments, terrorist organizations, hackers, and even private individuals. The importance of cyberspace is undeniable, as states use it to enhance governance. For Israel, cyberspace is vital both militarily and non-militarily. Due to its lack of strategic depth and ongoing regional conflicts, Israel faces geopolitical constraints, necessitating diverse military measures. Cyberspace offers Israel a strategic advantage, and over the past two decades, it has focused on developing human capital, legislation, and institutional frameworks to strengthen its cyber capabilities. Collaboration with Western partners, particularly the United States, has positioned Israel as a influential cyber actor in the region. Israel has enhanced its cyber capabilities in both offense and defence, utilizing cyberspace in military-intelligence strategies during regional conflicts, such as Operation Orchard and the 2014 Gaza conflict. The study highlights the significance of cyberspace in Israel’s military strategies, evident in its numerous cyber-related institutions, including the Cyber Directorate. A clear division of responsibilities exists among Israel’s branches of government for cyber defence. Israel’s cyber capabilities and technological advancements aim to establish cyber deterrence against regional threats. Successful cyberattacks and espionage operations have contributed to this deterrence. The diversification of threats and the concept of comprehensive security have led Israel to expand its military operations, opening new fronts against adversaries. Israel’s legislative and strategic frameworks for cyberspace are noteworthy. The first legislative action in this domain was the 1998 “Security Regulations in Government Institutions,” which defined responsibilities for information and computer security in public institutions. In 2015, Israel established the National Cyber Directorate under the Prime Minister’s Office to oversee cyber policies and implement recommendations. The Directorate is responsible for research and development, emergency tools, and cybersecurity frameworks. In 2015, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) assigned cyber operations to two units: Unit 8200 for offensive operations and the Computer Service Directorate for defence. Other institutions, such as the Finance Ministry’s Computer Division, the Police Cyber Unit, and the Ministry of Justice, also play roles in cybersecurity. Israel’s strategic investments in cyberspace have positioned it as a global cyber power. Its high export capacity in cybersecurity products generates significant economic benefits for private companies while enhancing its espionage and sabotage capabilities. Militarily, Unit 8200, staffed by elite university graduates, has conducted numerous cyber operations against various countries, including Iran. However, groups like Hezbollah have countered Israel’s cyber deterrence, exposing its vulnerabilities. Israel’s reliance on cyberspace extends to its economy, and its aggressive cyber strategies aim to compensate for its lack of political legitimacy and strategic depth. By targeting various countries, Israel seeks to achieve multiple objectives through cyberspace. In conclusion, Israel’s strategic focus on cyberspace has enabled it to address its geopolitical challenges, establish cyber deterrence, and expand its influence globally. Its comprehensive approach, combining military, economic, and technological strategies, underscores the critical role of cyberspace in its national security framework.Keywords: Cyber Space, Israel, Military Strategies, National Securit, Wide Security
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Pages 165-193
The relationships between countries are fundamentally reflected in their foreign policies. Essentially, a country's foreign policy is influenced by a combination of internal factors and the regional and international environment. In reality, numerous factors affect the decision-making process in the foreign policy of countries, and in particular, there is a strong connection between geographical factors and the policies of governments. Therefore, governments formulate policies according to the geographical situation of their country. More precisely, geopolitical realities have always played a fundamental role in determining the political behaviors and strategic decisions of countries. One of Iraq's important neighbors is Saudi Arabia, and the two countries have had a wide range of relations over the past three decades, from alliance and cooperation to rivalry and tension; although a specific characteristic, namely the mistrust of the two countries towards each other, has been preserved in various political, economic, cultural and other fields. This research, using a descriptive-analytical method and relying on library resources and field studies, seeks to investigate and analyze the role of geopolitical factors in the relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia over the past three decades and prioritize them. In the library study section, the geopolitical factors affecting the relations between the two countries were identified, and in the next stage, to find out the extent of the impact of these factors on the relations between the two countries, a questionnaire in the form of three dimensions of political-security, economic and cultural was prepared and provided to experts. To examine the research hypothesis, the first type of confirmatory factor analysis method was used in LISREL software, and SPSS software was used for inferential test and descriptive statistics. The research findings show that there is a significant difference between the degree of influence of each of the main dimensions of security-political, economic, cultural and corresponding geopolitical factors of each dimension, on the relations between the countries of Iraq and Saudi Arabia in the past three decades, and the descriptive findings of the research based on the influence of the variables of the cultural dimension in the first rank, the political-security dimension in the second rank and finally the economic dimension in the third rank, are confirmed. In order to fit the research model and determine the factor load of each of the research items, the first-order factor analysis has been used, the accepted factor load of each of them must be more than 0.3, and the t-statistic, which indicates the significance of the relationship between the item and the main variable of the research, is also more than 1.96. The most important variables affecting the improvement or weakening of Iraq-Saudi relations have been calculated based on descriptive statistics (based on the average score of each variable) and inferential statistics (based on the factor analysis value and t-statistic of each variable). In the "political-security dimension", the variable "Persian Gulf regional organizations and Arab countries" has played an effective role in improving relations between the two countries, both based on descriptive and inferential statistics. However, based on descriptive statistics, the variable "formation of the Saudi-Iraqi Cooperation Council" has also played a role in improving relations between the two countries, with an average higher than normal. In contrast, the two variables "Saudi support for fundamentalist extremist groups, ISIS, etc." and also the variable "different political ideology of the two countries (Shiite-Wahhabism)" have had the greatest role in weakening relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, both based on descriptive statistics (average criterion) and also based on inferential findings (factor analysis value and t-statistic criterion). In the "economic dimension", the status of the variables affecting the relations between the two countries is different based on descriptive and inferential statistics. Thus, based on the results of descriptive statistics, the variable "reopening of border crossings between the two countries" with an average of 3.65 and the variable "re-launching of the communication route between Najaf province with Saudi Arabia (land Hajj project)" with an average of 3.52 have had the greatest impact on improving the economic relations of the two sides. While based on inferential findings, the three variables "supplying Iraq's needs from Saudi Arabia" and the variable "construction of the first free economic zone with Iraq in the Arar border region" and the variable "joint investment of the two countries in energy projects" have had a greater impact on improving relations between the two countries. This difference exists in the output of descriptive and inferential findings regarding the variable weakening relations as well. Accordingly, while the variable "disagreement over the exploitation of shared border resources (water, pasture, etc.)" with an average of 3.15 from the perspective of descriptive statistics has played an effective role in weakening the relations between the two countries. Based on inferential findings, considering that the factor load of the variable "disagreement between the two countries over the exploitation of shared border resources (water, pasture, etc.)" is equal to 0.14 and less than the standard value of 0.3, and also the value of the t-statistic of the variable is also equal to 1.42 and less than the significance level of 1.96, therefore, it can be said that the impact of this variable on weakening the relations between the two countries is not confirmed. Finally, the results of the field findings in the "cultural dimension" are as follows: the two variables "presence of Iraqis in Hajj ceremonies" and the variable "common culture and language (Arab nationalism)" both based on the output of descriptive and inferential statistics from the perspective of the respondents have played an effective role in improving the relations between the two countries of Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In fact, the mentioned variables, due to strengthening cultural and social ties, have had a positive effect on improving the relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, the status of the cultural variables affecting the weakening of the relations between the two countries is as follows: the variable "Saudi support for Sunnis in Iraq" both based on the findings of descriptive and inferential statistics has had the greatest role in weakening the relations between the two sides. However, the results of descriptive statistics show that the second variable affecting the weakening of the relations between the two countries is the variable "behavior of the Saudi government with Shiites in Saudi Arabia" with an average of 3.69. While based on the results of inferential statistics, the variable "existence of a Shiite majority population in Iraq" with a factor load of 0.75 and a t-statistic value equal to 4.52 has played an effective role in weakening the relations between the two countries. In total, it can be said that Saudi support for specific Sunni groups in Iraq and the majority of the Shiite population in Iraq, due to strengthening religious and ethnic differences, has helped to weaken these relations.
Keywords: Foreign Policy, International Relations, Geopolitics, Saudi Arabia, Iraq -
Analysis of the strategic advantages of relations with the Republic of Cyprus for the Zionist regimePages 195-234
Cyprus is one of the world's key geostrategic regions, located at the juncture of three continents -Asia, Europe, and Africa- playing a pivotal role in the commercial, cultural, military, and energy dynamics of these areas. Its prime geographic location near the Malacca Strait-Suez Canal maritime route, multifaceted dependence on the surrounding security environment, access to natural gas resources, potential for intelligence and military operations in proximate areas, especially the Levant, the presence of British military-intelligence bases, its role in energy and communications routes, European Union membership, and advanced maritime services all contribute to its unique geopolitical significance. These characteristics have consistently attracted the attention of regional and global actors aiming to exploit its geostrategic advantages. Among these actors, Israel stands out as a regional power seeking to enhance its influence. Since the occupation of Palestine, Israel has perceived Cyprus not merely as an island but as a strategic, non-Islamic, and non-Arab space- a valuable opportunity to reduce regional pressures and augment its security, military, and economic capacities. Given the strategic challenges arising from Israel’s artificial and imposed nature, Cyprus- a territory influenced by major global powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom- has become a critical lifeline, offering significant strategic advantages in times of war and peace. Over the past two decades, amid geopolitical shifts and emerging dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel has advanced its relations with Cyprus across various domains, establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership. This partnership has extended beyond Cyprus to Greece, forming what Israeli leaders describe as a new geopolitical bloc in the Eastern Mediterranean. This bloc aims to counter regional threats and balance power against nations like Iran and Turkey, underscoring its importance to Israel. Cyprus’s strategic value is so profound that it is regarded as Israel's strategic depth in military and security planning. This study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach, drawing on open sources and data to examine the dimensions of Israel-Cyprus cooperation and to identify the strategic advantages Cyprus offers to Israel. The study seeks to answer the central question: "What strategic benefits does the Republic of Cyprus provide to Israel?" Three key areas of cooperation- security-intelligence, military, and energy- were examined to address this question. Security-intelligence cooperation between Israel and Cyprus has reached an advanced stage, including the sale of sophisticated intelligence equipment, development and export of spyware through Cyprus, and the establishment of joint intelligence channels for targeting Iran and the Axis of Resistance. Additionally, Cyprus acts as an intermediary for transferring Israeli security technologies and intelligence capabilities. Counterterrorism cooperation further bolsters this partnership, enabling Israel to leverage Cyprus’s intelligence resources to exert pressure on the Axis of Resistance and expand its regional influence. Military ties between the two nations have also grown substantially, encompassing the sale of advanced military equipment, joint exercises, training of Cypriot forces, and the use of Cypriot military bases for Israeli logistical and operational purposes. These collaborations allow Israel to use Cyprus as a staging ground for simulating potential future conflicts with Hezbollah and Iran, disrupting the Axis of Resistance’s logistical routes, and targeting Iranian vessels near the island. Energy collaboration has further strengthened ties, involving natural gas extraction and transportation, development of electricity infrastructure, and the establishment of joint institutions in the Eastern Mediterranean. These initiatives have helped Israel reduce dependence on external energy sources, strengthen its position in global energy markets, and leverage its energy resources for enhanced diplomatic engagement. The strategic outcomes of Israel’s broad relationship with Cyprus are significant, including deeper strategic depth, strengthened ties with Greece, capacity building for shaping a new regional order, increased energy capabilities, alliances against Iran and the Axis of Resistance, and a platform for initiating operations from the Eastern Mediterranean. These relations have also enabled Israel to expand its influence within the European Union, enhance its diplomatic power in international institutions, and legitimize its aggressive actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, positioning itself as a key regional actor. The strategic partnership with Cyprus bolsters Israel’s resilience, adaptability, and military capabilities in addressing regional challenges, particularly against the Axis of Resistance. However, these ties pose serious threats to the security of Iran and the Axis of Resistance. Within the zero-sum framework of the Iran-Israel rivalry, any enhancement of Israel’s power represents a direct threat to Iran’s security and interests. Israel’s partnership with Cyprus has created new avenues for exerting pressure on Iran and the Axis of Resistance, complicating Iran’s security environment and introducing novel threats. A deep understanding of Israel-Cyprus relations and the role of Cyprus in Israel’s anti-resistance strategies is essential for Iran. Israel’s strategic partnership with Cyprus demonstrates its sustained efforts to strengthen its position in the Eastern Mediterranean and counter the Axis of Resistance. Through effective diplomatic engagement, strengthened regional cooperation, and support for the Axis of Resistance, Iran must design coherent and effective strategies to neutralize these threats and enhance its position in the region.
Keywords: Zionist Regime, Republic Of Cyprus, Offensive Realism, Eastern Mediterranean -
Pages 235-260In the present era, science and technology are recognized as one of the most important soft power tools in the field of international relations. Science and technology diplomacy, by utilizing scientific, research, and technological capacities, can act as a bridge to strengthen international cooperation and build mutual trust between countries. The Islamic Republic of Iran, given its unique geopolitical location and its neighborhood with diverse countries in terms of culture, economy, and politics, has significant capacities in the field of science and technology diplomacy. These capacities can be used in line with the goals of Iran's neighborhood policy, as one of the key priorities of the country's foreign policy. Iran's neighborhood policy is based on developing friendly relations, strengthening regional cooperation, and reducing tensions with neighboring countries. In the meantime, science and technology diplomacy can help strengthen Iran's relations with its neighbors by creating common grounds for scientific, educational, and technological cooperation. On the other hand, this type of diplomacy can be used as a tool to introduce Iran's scientific and technological achievements, improve the country's international image, and attract regional and global partnerships in scientific and technological projects. With the growth of globalization, regionalism has become more visible in various forms in geopolitical and geostrategic regions. Regional organizations, which were created in the second half of the 20th century for economic, political, and military convergence, have become one of the important tools of international interactions. Despite efforts to strengthen economic and political interactions, some believe that regionalism is an obstacle to globalization. In this regard, the creation of joint banking networks and bank switches can help reduce barriers to financial exchanges and improve economic trust between countries. Developing a neighborhood policy by focusing on this type of financial infrastructure can help strengthen economic convergence among neighboring countries. This article aims to examine the capacities of science and technology diplomacy in the neighborhood policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and analyzes the role and position of this type of diplomacy in strengthening Iran's relations with neighboring countries. In this regard, first, the concept of science and technology diplomacy is defined and explained, and then Iran's capacities in this area are examined. Next, the role of science and technology diplomacy in achieving the goals of Iran's neighborhood policy is analyzed and solutions are presented for making the most of these capacities. It is hoped that this article can be a step towards better understanding the capacities of science and technology diplomacy and its role in Iran's foreign policy. The present study examines the role of science and technology diplomacy in Iran's neighborhood policy and presents effective strategies for utilizing scientific and technological capacities to improve relations with neighboring countries.Science and technology diplomacy, as one of the new and effective tools in the field of international relations, has significant potential to strengthen regional cooperation and achieve the goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran's neighborhood policy. Given Iran's geopolitical location and its neighborhood with countries that are culturally, economically, and politically diverse, utilizing these capabilities can lead to building mutual trust, reducing tensions, and developing sustainable relations with neighbors. With its scientific and technological infrastructure, advanced research centers, and specialized human resources, Iran has the ability to use science and technology diplomacy as a tool to introduce its achievements, attract regional and global partnerships, and improve its international image. Joint cooperation in the fields of energy, environment, health, new technologies, and higher education can be considered as the main axes of scientific and technological interactions with neighboring countries. However, effective use of science and technology diplomacy in Iran's neighborhood policy requires the development of macro strategies, strengthening relevant institutions, increasing research budgets, and establishing regional scientific networks. Coordination between the country's scientific, diplomatic, and economic institutions also seems essential for the successful implementation of this type of diplomacy. In this context, the use of modern financial instruments such as joint banking switches can be one of the practical solutions to strengthen economic convergence among Islamic countries. The Islamic Republic of Iran can play a leadership role in this area by proposing the creation of independent and joint banking and financial networks, and thereby help strengthen neighborhood policy and expand economic relations with regional countries. The use of modern financial technologies and the development of technological infrastructure can, in addition to strengthening economic convergence, help increase trust among Islamic countries and reduce dependence on international financial systems. This article suggests that the development of the neighborhood policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran should use the capacities of science and technology diplomacy to expand economic and political relations with regional countries and thereby help strengthen convergence and trust-building among Islamic countries. Regarding the neighborhood policy, it should be said that this policy is one of the most efficient strategies for stabilizing the peripheral environment. The neighborhood policy is an efficient strategy for building trust and increasing regional cooperation within the framework of regionalism, as well as an efficient strategy for playing an active role in the developments of the peripheral environment and its engineering. The neighborhood policy is a decisive strategy for determining and changing the perceptions of governments towards each other, creating a favorable environment for the growth and development of each regional unit, and ultimately a strategy for strengthening and developing political and economic relations with peripheral countries.In a case study of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, it seems that the factors and components that can be a basis for convergence in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation also contain a basis for divergence. One of the main axes of formation and convergence in this organization is the factor of the common Islamic religion. Having a significant Muslim population of every sect and group is considered the main basis for the formation of this organization. Creating Islamic unity and the Islamic nation is considered one of the central provisions of the organization's charter. However, at the same time, very different and sometimes conflicting interpretations of the true religion of Islam are the factor of divergence and distance of member countries from each other's policies. Within the framework of the functionalist theory, the desire for convergence should first begin from the independent economic, commercial and industrial sectors and spread to the political sphere, which seems very unlikely in the economies of Islamic countries, since they are often state-based.Keywords: Science, Technology Diplomacy, Technology Cooperation, Neighborhood Policy, Regional Cooperation
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Pages 261-283
The strategic miscalculation of the Zionist regime in attacking the consulate of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Syria provided an opportunity for the country to adopt, in accordance with international law, an operation with strategic and non-strategic consequences, avoiding direct confrontation with the United States and the Zionist regime, which would have profound effects on the national and international levels that need to be explained. Conducting this research will help to better understand, analyze, and explain the impact of Operation True Promise on the strategic deepening components of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, as well as to create awareness and a common vision in explaining the impact of Operation True Promise on domestic and foreign strategic deepening. The Islamic Republic of Iran, with Operation True Promise in the face of the Zionist regime's strategy based on a shock blow and the doctrine of preemptive action in attacking the Iranian consular section in Damascus, as the essence of the Tel Aviv strategy, while challenging the Zionist regime's strategy, has had important strategic consequences in deepening the Islamic Revolution internally and externally with the two goals of obtaining national security benefits and repelling threats to the Islamic Revolution, the components of which need to be explained. The type of research is applied and developmental in terms of purpose and has a descriptive-analytical nature. The methodological approach of the research is a mixed exploratory one, and the community of expertise of this research includes defense, security, and strategic experts of the country and the expert sample includes 14 experts with doctoral degrees in fields related to national security, strategy, and political science with at least 20 years of experience and responsibility in the relevant executive field and in a purposeful manner to the level of theoretical saturation. To analyze the collected data, thematic analysis was used to categorize and classify the research elements, and statistical analysis was used with tests such as Lavish coefficient, rank average using SPSS software, and Cronbach's alpha factors and composite reliability were used to examine validity and reliability. The results of the research include the impact of Operation True Promise on 5 internal components and 11 external components of deepening the Islamic Revolution, including emphasizing the need for wise and courageous leadership in society, increasing the social capital of the armed forces, promoting national pride, conveying the message of negation of hegemony and subjugation to the international community, effective in reducing or changing the approach of confrontation and competition of some countries in the region, etc. In this study, based on direct reference to the study of texts, articles, and scientific sources, and then utilizing the knowledge, aristocracy, and documented experiences of elites, senior managers, and experts, the internal and external deepening components affected by Operation True Promise were formulated, and after confirmation in the focus group, the desired questions were extracted from the questionnaire and the opinions of experts were obtained. The results of the study show that the most important effects of Operation True Promise on the internal deepening of the Islamic Republic of Iran are, respectively: emphasizing the need for wise and courageous leadership in society, increasing the social capital of the armed forces, promoting national pride, emphasizing the development of the country's defense capabilities, and the necessity of national endurance and stability (resilience) against threats. Also, the most important effects of the Honest Promise operation in deepening the external position of the Islamic Republic of Iran are, respectively: conveying the message of negation of hegemony and subjugation to the international community, effective in reducing or changing the approach of confrontation and competition of some countries in the region against the Islamic Republic of Iran, effective in emphasizing relations based on the principles of honor, wisdom, and expediency, effective in developing strategic depth and presence in the enemy's vital areas, effective in strengthening popular groups aligned with the Islamic Revolution of Iran, effective in promoting Iran's role in regional and international developments, effective in promoting international prestige, effective in recognizing Iran as a reliable ally, increasing its influence on decisions of international forums, effective in creating readiness to confront the unipolarization of the world and the hegemony of the United States over the world, effective in recognizing the Islamic Republic as a model for countries and negating rival models of governance, which is based on reliability based on Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability, the level of agreement with the Lavesche coefficient, and the significance with the average. A ranking was presented and explained.
Keywords: Operation True Promise, Strategic Deepening, Islamic Revolution -
Pages 285-307
The use of artificial intelligence in the military industry by the Zionist regime has played a very prominent role in increasing its defense and military capabilities. This technology, by reducing the dependence on human power and increasing the accuracy and speed of reactions, helps them to carry out accurate and destructive attacks with the least physical presence in the field and reduce the risk of life for their forces.These innovations, in the context of the strategic vision of the Zionist regime, show that this regime is not only aware of the military opportunities resulting from the development of artificial intelligence but also seeks to identify possible future threats and deal with them. In this research, by referring to the documents published by the Zionist regime, its view on the indicators of the nature of the future of the war will be counted from side to side of the declaration texts. For this purpose, the relevant documents were examined by the method of qualitative content analysis, and the research was compiled.
MethodologyThe research method is based on the type of analytical-explanatory research, the type of applied goal, and the type of qualitative data. In this research, to review and analyze the data, the method of qualitative content analysis has been used. Qualitative content analysis, by focusing on understanding the meaning and structure of textual content, helps researchers to identify and analyze the patterns, themes, and concepts hidden in the data.In this process, first, the data were collected and entered into the MaxQD software in appropriate formats. Then, the relevant parts of the text were coded to identify key topics and concepts. These codes are organized hierarchically to show the structure and relationships between the data more clearly. In the next step, recurring patterns and themes were identified and relationships between codes were analyzed. Finally, the data interpretation was done to extract the results of the analysis and the findings were presented in a way that is in line with the main objectives of the research.
FindingsTo analyze the effects of artificial intelligence on the future of wars, Carl von Clausewitz's theories about the nature of war were used. Based on these theories, the key indicators of the nature of war including violence, chance and probability, and the political nature of war were selected as the main criteria as follows.1- The political dimension of warFrom the point of view of the strategic documents of the Zionist regime, artificial intelligence can increase the political nature of war in the sense that war is the continuation of politics with other means. Israel's AI strategy is focused on strengthening long-term leadership in this field, applying AI for social and economic gains, and aligning with international approaches. The strategy also emphasizes the widespread use of artificial intelligence in the government and defense sectors and strong financial support for the development of this technology, indicating a desire to exploit artificial intelligence as a powerful tool in the realization of political goals. In addition, the codes that refer to multilateral cooperation, regulation consistent with international frameworks, and the use of artificial intelligence in decision-making and policy-making processes, show that the Zionist regime seeks to increase its political efficiency and flexibility through artificial intelligence.2- The dimension of luck and the possibility of warBased on the presented codes, it seems that from the point of view of the national documents of the Zionist regime, artificial intelligence can simultaneously increase and decrease the chance and probability of war; It depends on the type of use, transparency in decision-making and the regulatory environment. While AI can reduce human error by reducing human biases and improving decision-making accuracy, lack of transparency, vulnerability to technical failures, and lack of proper oversight can increase the chance of unexpected and unwanted events in war.3- The dimension of war violence From the point of view of the national documents of the Zionist regime, artificial intelligence can significantly affect the violence of war. These impacts can include increased risks and violence due to a lack of transparency, technical vulnerabilities, and arms race.
ConclusionThe Zionist regime, by focusing on the development of artificial intelligence, seeks to strengthen its strategic and military position. In the analysis of the effect of artificial intelligence on war violence, it can be seen that the Zionist regime has developed and exploited artificial intelligence technologies to increase war violence and improve accuracy in military operations. Artificial intelligence can help reduce the randomness and unpredictability of violence by providing advanced tools to analyze data and predict war scenarios. However, there are also challenges such as the possibility of algorithmic discrimination, security vulnerabilities, and the need for effective human supervision, which can lead to the occurrence of unwanted violence or increase its level. Regarding the index of chance and probability, artificial intelligence has two effects. On the one hand, this technology can reduce the probability of wars and facilitate crisis management by improving analysis and forecasting capabilities. On the other hand, the advanced capabilities of artificial intelligence and military capabilities may lead to new and more complex conflicts. Therefore, the impact of artificial intelligence on the chances and probability of wars depends on how it is used and the controls applied to this technology. In the context of the politicization of war, artificial intelligence significantly affects military policies and strategies. By exploiting the capabilities of artificial intelligence, the Zionist regime seeks to strengthen its decision-making power and improve strategic analysis. Artificial intelligence, as a tool for predicting and analyzing political and military complexities, can lead to strengthening the military power and political influence of the Zionist regime.Of course, investigating the effects of artificial intelligence on other aspects of warfare, including international interactions and changes in military strategies and policies, are important issues that require more attention and research.
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, War, Violence, Politics, Possibility -
Pages 309-332
The Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1979 marked a turning point in the political, social, and security developments of the West Asian region. This revolution not only transformed Iran's internal structures but also had extensive impacts on the power dynamics in the region. As a result of this transformation, the Axis of Resistance emerged as a politico-military movement. This axis, consisting of Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, Palestinian resistance groups, and other allied forces, has significantly influenced the balance of power by altering the strategies of regional and international players. In this context, the Islamic Republic of Iran, leveraging its ideological, geopolitical, and military capabilities, has played a crucial role in leading and expanding this axis. To analyze the role of the Axis of Resistance and the changes it has brought to the region, neorealism, particularly the views of Kenneth Waltz, provides a suitable theoretical framework. This theory emphasizes that changes in the distribution of power and global and regional structures lead to the formation of strategic alliances and shifts in power dynamics. The Axis of Resistance, by weakening strategic rivals and strengthening regional alliances, has played a key role in redefining the regional order. The Axis of Resistance, through its military power, active diplomacy, and security strategies, has altered the political landscape of the region and influenced the policies of Western and Arab countries. Some of its most significant effects include:Role of the Axis of Resistance in Changing Security Strategies: The Axis of Resistance, as an influential force in the region, has impacted the security and military policies of various actors. By establishing military bases and supporting resistance groups, this axis has created effective deterrence against potential threats. These actions have not only strengthened Iran's security beyond its borders but also paved the way for countering the aggressive policies of the West and its regional allies. Shift in the Regional Balance of Power: The Axis of Resistance has challenged the unilateral policies of the United States by creating new power poles in the region. Through increased military and political cooperation among regional actors, this axis has intensified existing rivalries and altered the balance of power. Countries that were previously dependent on U.S. policies are now seeking new relationships based on shared interests with Iran and resistance groups. Consolidation of Iran’s Regional Influence: One of the key outcomes of the Axis of Resistance has been the expansion of Iran’s strategic depth in neighboring countries. By capitalizing on the power vacuums created by U.S. failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has strengthened its presence in these nations. Support for resistance groups in Syria and Lebanon has further solidified Iran’s position as a regional power. This influence has not only ensured Iran’s national security but also enhanced its geopolitical standing at the regional and international levels. Failure of Western Strategies in Regional Order Formation: The policies of the United States and its allies aimed at establishing a new regional order that sidelines Iran have encountered multiple obstacles. Western efforts to contain Iran through sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and support for internal opposition have failed to diminish its influence. Instead, the Axis of Resistance, through maintaining cohesion and coordination among its members, has shifted the balance of power in favor of Iran. This trend has led to the failure of Western strategies in shaping their desired regional order. Increasing Regional Actors’ Inclination Towards the Axis of Resistance: In recent years, many regional players previously aligned with Western policies have gradually gravitated towards the Axis of Resistance. The success of this axis in countering security threats and maintaining regional stability has led some countries to show greater willingness to cooperate with Iran and its allies. This shift in approach has facilitated stronger regional cooperation and reduced regional dependence on the West. The victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran and the emergence of the Axis of Resistance have brought about fundamental changes in regional and international politics. By forming strategic alliances and supporting resistance groups, Iran has managed to shift the balance of power in its favor and reduce the traditional influence of major powers in the region. The Axis of Resistance, as a model of political and social convergence, has curbed the aggressive policies of its rivals and altered their security and military strategies. This process, in addition to strengthening Iran’s position, has paved the way for the formation of a multipolar order in West Asia. Overall, the Axis of Resistance has proven to be a significant force in shaping the political and security landscape of the region and influencing its future trajectory.
Keywords: West Asia, Iran, Axis Of Resistance, Security