نشریه مطالعات اقتصاد بخش عمومی
سال سوم شماره 4 (پیاپی 10، زمستان 1403)

Government borrowing is considered a means of financing the government, which first appeared in 1688 in Britain and then in America, Belgium, Denmark, etc. Receiving loans and credit through domestic banks and institutions as well as through international monetary institutions is one of the things that will create debt for governments in the future. Today, government debt is a global phenomenon that most countries in the world face. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of economic growth and government budget deficit on the accumulation of government debt in Iran's economy using the Lasso and ARDL approach for the period 1979-2023. The results of the research through the Lasso approach showed that economic growth, foreign investment, government budget deficit, trade openness, real interest rate and inflation variables were chosen as the determinants of accumulation of the government's debt. The results of the model estimation through the ARDL approach showed that in the long term, the trade openness variable had a positive and significant effect on the accumulation of government debt. Also, in the long term, economic growth and the real interest rate variables had a negative and significant effect on the dependent variable. The results of the model estimation of the dynamics of the short-term indicated the significance of the variables of trade openness, economic growth, real interest rate and budget deficit . Similar to the long-term period, trade openness had a positive and large effect of the accumulation of the government debt in the short-term period. Although the positive effect of the budget deficit was not significant, the negative effect of the interest rate on the reduction of government debt was significant in both the long-term and short-term periods.

From the point of view of academic researchers as well as those involved in financial sciences, it is important to predict the fluctuations of the budget deficit. In Iran's difficult economic conditions that with increasing environmental pressures and the limitation of external sources And the decrease in oil prices is accompanied by sanctions. An increase in the budget deficit has heavy consequences on the economy. Therefore, the main purpose of this article Modeling the trend of financial deficit fluctuations and forecasting it. In this study, Simultaneously using GARCH models To calculate and model budget deficit fluctuations will be paid. The purpose of this study is to use univariate GARCH models.. Many articles that focused on GARCH modeling suggested that using the p=q=1 specification is much more successful in modeling most of the volatility of financial returns.The purpose of this study is to use univariate GARCH models. The main problem with standard GARCH is that positive and negative shocks have the same effects on volatility, although the effects of these positive and negative shocks may be symmetric. The volatility volatility means that bad news (negative impulses) lead to more future price fluctuations and budget deficit fluctuations than good news. In this article, the relationship between the impulses of the budget deficit (news) and conditional volatility will be investigated using exponential GARCH, power GARCH and threshold GARCH models.The results show that during the period 1982-2022, Shocks on the economy In the short term, it is not significant on the turbulence of the budget deficit But the shocks on the economy in the long term, It is significant on the budget deficit according to GARCH models. The findings of this research show that The positive impulses of the economy in the short term have no effect on the budget deficit, but its negative effect is evident in the long term. Also, modeling the instability of the budget deficit through the Garch family models prevents the provision of temporary solutions for the output and the temporary effect. Common certainty is significant and this indicates the impact of shocks and news on the budget deficit. Therefore, positive and negative shocks have different effects on fluctuations, the negative coefficient indicates the existence of a significant leverage effect.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the empirical reaction of macroeconomic variables, including economic growth due to the change in tax rates subject to Article 105 of the Direct Tax Act. The research method is quantitative and for data analysis, the Computable General Equilibrium approach is used with GAMS software. Research data is derived from the latest Social Accounting Matrix produced by the central bank. Policy analysis is performed in the form of three scenarios: 5%, 10% and 15% reduction in tax rates. The results of the study indicate that the reduction of tax rates subject to Article 105 of the Direct Taxes Act will increase economic growth. Also, sensitivity analysis results indicate the high accuracy of the research model and reliability to the results of policy analysis. Therefore, it is recommended that the Government in Note (6) of the annual budgetary laws to reduce the tax rate of 15 % subject to Article 105 of the Direct Taxes.AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the empirical reaction of macroeconomic variables, including economic growth due to the change in tax rates subject to Article 105 of the Direct Tax Act. The research method is quantitative and for data analysis, the Computable General Equilibrium approach is used with GAMS software. Research data is derived from the latest Social Accounting Matrix produced by the central bank. Policy analysis is performed in the form of three scenarios: 5%, 10% and 15% reduction in tax rates. The results of the study indicate that the reduction of tax rates subject to Article 105 of the Direct Taxes Act will increase economic growth. Also, sensitivity analysis results indicate the high accuracy of the research model and reliability to the results of policy analysis. Therefore, it is recommended that the Government in Note (6) of the annual budgetary laws to reduce the tax rate of 15 % subject to Article 105 of the Direct Taxes.

Financing is the most important duty and mission of banks towards the economy, and if the optimal allocation of credit resources does not happen, the stability of the macro economy will be damaged and the economy can experience stagnation or inflation. Nevertheless, the available statistics show that the situation of access to financing in Iran is extremely unequal and unbalanced, and the lack of a systematic and dynamic approach in allocating credit to the needs of enterprises has made the allocated facilities unable to play a useful role in improving financing. financial and production status of enterprises. With this explanation, in this study, using the vector autoregression method, the effect of credit facilities to small and medium enterprises on inequality in Iran during the period of 2000-2022 has been investigated. The results showed that the variable of granted facilities to small and medium enterprises could not have a significant effect on inequality in Iran. This issue can be caused by the amount of providing credit resources, the process of granting credits in terms of selecting economic plans and monitoring the consumption of these credits. Also, according to the obtained results, the existing inequality variable has the greatest effect on inequality in the future periods.Abstract: Financing is the most important duty and mission of banks towards the economy, and if the optimal allocation of credit resources does not happen, the stability of the macro economy will be damaged and the economy can experience stagnation or inflation. Nevertheless, the available statistics show that the situation of access to financing in Iran is extremely unequal and unbalanced, and the lack of a systematic and dynamic approach in allocating credit to the needs of enterprises has made the allocated facilities unable to play a useful role in improving financing. financial and production status of enterprises. With this explanation, in this study, using the vector autoregression method, the effect of credit facilities to small and medium enterprises on inequality in Iran during the period of 2000-2022 has been investigated.

Monetary policy is a tool through which central banks manage the supply of money to achieve their goals, and it is one of the key elements of macroeconomic management, and its effectiveness is an important issue in the analysis of economic policies. The usual goals of monetary policy are to achieve or maintain full employment, to achieve or maintain a high rate of economic growth, and to stabilize prices. For this purpose, in this research, the effects of this policy on production and employment, which have been calibrated for the Iranian economy by considering frictional unemployment in the form of a monetary general equilibrium model, have been investigated. The results show that the effect of monetary growth on employment and production in a steady state may be non-linear depending on the two parameters of labor supply elasticity and elasticity of vacancies in job matches, so that the lower the labor supply elasticity and elasticity of vacancies in job matches, it is more likely that monetary growth will have adverse effects on employment and production. Also, in the framework of the model, the negative relationship between the unemployment rate and vacancies is calculated, and with the increase of the Quarterly monetary growth rate from zero to 5%, the employment and production values in a steady state, they increase by about 0.4%. In addition, considering the transition dynamic, with the reduction of the monetary growth rate from the level of the benchmark case to the level of 2.5%, the equilibrium values of the variables will converge to their new equilibrium values after 2.5 years. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank should pay attention to the effectiveness of monetary policy on production and employment in order to achieve macroeconomic goals in recession and boom. And since monetary growth is not always unfavorable for production and employment, the effects of this reduction on production should be taken into account in inflation reduction policies.

Gold is widely used by investors as a hedge against other financial assets, underscoring its critical importance. Sharp fluctuations in gold prices have highlighted the need to identify and understand the factors influencing these price changes. The gold market is known for its volatility, and accurate predictions about its future can significantly impact decision-making. Understanding the gold price and making correct forecasts can help inform decisions about buying and selling gold in global markets, and determine the most favorable times for transactions and investments. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately predict the gold price from various perspectives. This study aims to model and predict gold price volatility in the global market. The research is applied in nature and utilizes monthly data from 2010 to 2022. We evaluated 35 factors potentially affecting gold price volatility. GARCH models and stochastic volatility approaches were employed to extract gold price volatility, while TVPDMA, TVPDMS, and BMA models were used to identify the most significant variables driving volatility. Results indicate that SV models outperform GARCH models in accurately extracting volatility. Among the TVPDMA, TVPDMS, and BMA models, the BMA model demonstrated superior accuracy. Findings reveal that 12 key variables—including the dollar index, oil prices, gold imports and exports, global interest rates, cryptocurrency index, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Fibonacci Retracement, Average Directional Index (ADX), stock oscillator, and DeMark and Fibonacci Pivot Points—showed the highest likelihood of presence and significance in predicting price volatility. The results suggest that internal factors have a greater impact on gold price volatility than external factors.