فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 166 (پاییز 1403)

In recent years, the country has experienced large budget deficits and increasing inflation rates. Imbalances in both the budget and banking sectors have been major factors contributing to this inflation. This study investigates the relationships between key monetary variables, government budget deficits, gross domestic product (GDP), real exchange rates, and oil revenues from 1991 to 2022, using a dynamic vector error correction model. The findings show that government budget deficits have a significant long-run positive effect on the monetary base, which in turn increases inflation. The analysis also finds a one-way relationship where the monetary base and operating balance deficit lead to higher inflation rates. It suggests that the operating balance deficit may also affect changes in the monetary base. Overall, the results indicate that monetary dynamics in the country are closely related to government budget deficits, emphasizing the important roles of both monetary and fiscal factors in driving inflation.

Good governance can influence economic growth and development through various pathways, including formulating appropriate strategies for economic growth, establishing institutional infrastructure, and developing economic policies for better resource allocation, reducing uncertainty and risk for economic agents, and consequently attracting long-term domestic and foreign investment. The question of what role good governance plays and the extent of its impact on growth, economic development, and poverty reduction has become not only a topic of discussion in the literature but also a significant concern for economists, policymakers, and development managers. In this research, the effects of corruption control, the rule of law, and government effectiveness as sub-indices of governance on economic growth are examined. Additionally, to enhance the model, governance variables, and the interplay between the sub-indices of governance with representatives of physical capital, human capital, and economic governance are utilized in an empirical testing model across a dataset of several countries in panel format. Data related to 51 countries was collected semi-randomly for the period from 2000 to 2020 from the World Bank. Based on the obtained results, the composite index of the rule of law, corruption control, and government effectiveness has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the aforementioned interaction components also have a positive and significant impact on economic growth

Recent research findings regarding cost behavior have shown that costs do not change in proportion to changes in sales. In other words, while costs increase with rising sales, they do not decrease proportionately with falling sales. This asymmetric behavior of costs is referred to as cost stickiness. Furthermore, competition has led to a reduction in stagnation and recession in the market, compelling economic entities to operate with greater efficiency and productivity in order to survive under competitive conditions. Therefore, competition is recognized as a catalyst for innovation and creativity, which can contribute to the dynamism and economic development of society. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of competition on cost stickiness in the banking industry of Iran. To achieve this goal, data from 20 banks over the period of 2016-2023 were analyzed using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and panel data techniques. The findings indicate a significant positive relationship between competition and cost stickiness in banks. In other words, with an increase in competition, the cost stickiness of banks also rises.

Abstract The impact of government expenditure on economic growth has always been one of the most important elements in managing a country's affairs towards achieving desirable and sustainable economic growth. Corruption is a common phenomenon in countries with bloated governments. Given the role of natural resources in shaping corruption and rent-seeking behavior, controlling corruption is essential for selected OPEC member countries, as well as the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in these countries. Therefore, the present study aims to examine the role of corruption control in the impact of government expenditure on economic growth for selected OPEC member countries during the period 2002-2022, using annual data and employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Threshold Model by Hansen (1999). The findings indicate that government expenditure has a nonlinear effect on economic growth, meaning that the research model has a threshold for corruption control at a significant level of 95% with a value of -1.4622. The results show that at lower levels than the threshold variable (CC), government expenditure positively impacts economic growth. However, at higher levels than the threshold variable (CC), government expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth. Considering the magnitude of the corruption control index in selected OPEC member countries and the study results, implementing expansionary fiscal policies by governments is not recommended. Theoretically, these findings support the theory of "grease the wheels.

Nowadays, improving productivity, as the most important factor affecting economic growth, has become one of the basic concerns of policymakers. Considering the importance of productivity on the one hand, and the important role of the age composition of labor force and health expenditures on it, on the other hand, this study aims to investigate the relationship between government health expenditures and labor productivity, taking into account the threshold effects of aging labor force participation rate in MENA countries during 2000-2023 applying threshold dynamic and static regression method of panel data. The results show that labor productivity of the previous year has a positive and significant effect on current productivity. Moreover, when old labor force participation rate is lower than 14.40, health spending does not have a significant effect on the productivity, but in the conditions where old labor force participation rate is more than 14.40, health spending has a positive and significant relationship with productivity. Also, based on the results, the variables of FDI and ICT have positive and significant effects, and education and trade openness have negative and significant relationships with labor productivity.

Governments in the early 21st century are faced with challenging market dynamics and continuous changes caused by diverse and disruptive innovations, such as the Internet of Things, the Internet of Services, big data analytics, or artificial intelligence. These innovations also affect the way governments budget, so discussions about budgeting effectiveness are important for practitioners and researchers. Smart government is able to ensure solution-oriented budgeting approaches to solve budgeting obstacles, such as eliminating managers' motivation and innovative power, while ensuring strict accuracy in achieving smart government goals. Therefore, in the present study, using a descriptive-analytical method, the opportunities and challenges of artificial intelligence in the field of government budgeting were described and the question of how and to what extent artificial intelligence offers opportunities to improve existing budgeting approaches was answered. This research is the result of a literature review that uses the critical perspectives and analyses of other authors on budgeting approaches and combines them with the latest research on smart government and artificial intelligence in government budgeting. The results indicate that an AI-based budgeting approach can accelerate the budget allocation process and increase the accuracy and dynamism of budgeting by using more sophisticated analysis methods, which may provide new insights for decision makers. Also, the failure to neglect soft budgeting factors is one of the weaknesses of the AI-based budgeting approach that should be given special attention. In this regard, it is recommended that researchers identify the success factors of budgeting processes with insight into new economic, sociological, and psychological studies and apply an AI-based approach to remove budgeting obstacles.