فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 53 (بهار 1404)

Fluctuations in exchange rates have widespread effects on production costs, financial performance, and the international competitiveness of firms, which, in turn, influence the stock prices of both exporting and importing companies. Consequently, examining the relationship between exchange rate shocks and the stock prices of these firms is crucial for a deeper understanding of market dynamics and economic trends. This paper aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate shocks on the stock prices of exporting and importing companies in Iran. To achieve this, seasonal data spanning from 2008 to 2022 were utilized, and the analysis was conducted using the Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARX) model. The results of the study indicate that a one-standard-deviation positive exchange rate shock exerts a significant and positive effect on the stock prices of both exporting and importing companies. Specifically, a positive exchange rate shock enhances the competitive position of exporting companies, which, in turn, increases the volume of goods and services exported. This rise in exports contributes to higher foreign exchange revenues, and, as investors tend to value the future prospects of firms, this increase in foreign exchange earnings directly drives up the stock prices of exporting companies. Conversely, a positive exchange rate shock-marked by an increase in the free exchange rate relative to the official rate-creates a favorable environment for importing companies. These companies, which procure their goods at the official exchange rate, can capitalize on the differential between the official and free exchange rates. By offering their products at higher prices in the domestic market, they can significantly enhance their profit margins, leading to a direct increase in the stock prices of importing firms.

In the last few decades, the number of researches carried out in the field of choosing the optimal environmental policy to combat climate change, which is one of the main consequences of environmental pollution, is increasing. Therefore, achieving the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions using policy measures has caused the concern of transition to a low-carbon economy. The main goal in determining the optimal environmental policy is to reduce carbon emissions with minimal fluctuation and economic instability. This article investigates the role of capital utilization rate in evaluating the performance of environmental policies, which has been widely ignored in the literature. In other words, the focus of this research is on how the capital utilization rate affects the mechanism of economic impulses (total factor productivity and energy price) and then, the choice of optimal environmental policy. To evaluate this effect, three important characteristics are considered in the Environmental Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (E-DSGE) model: 1. capital utilization rate as endogenous variable, 2. capital depreciation that vary over the time and 3. Economic impulses. The result shows that the capital utilization rate strengthens the impact mechanism of impulses on the economy. Also, it strengthens the speed of return to equilibrium under different environmental policies. But when the firm uses the entire capital stock, the economy is relatively less responsive to business cycles. Assuming variable capital utilization rate, with the positive impulse of TFP and energy price, the effectiveness of environmental policy in reducing energy consumption increases.

This paper aims to explain the real-fiscal linkages by identifying the macroeconomic determinants of government revenue in Iran. To achieve this, the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method was applied using data from 1972 to 2020. The findings indicate that inflation, centralization, the divergence of public prices from market prices, and the concentration of tax collection on labor income tax all have positive effects on government revenue in Iran. In contrast, economic growth and trade openness have negative effects on government revenue. Overall, these findings support implementing an economic growth strategy that is internally comprehensive within the tax system and externally coherent in terms of the economics of growth, and to which the government has a “tight commitment”. “Internally comprehensive” refers to establishing a mature progressive tax system that includes an inflation-adjusted comprehensive income tax along with automatic complete indexation. When complete and explicit automatic indexation is lacking, fiscal authorities may still benefit from inflation, which can lead to persistent political incentives for inflation inertia. “Externally coherent” refers to ensuring that aspects such as openness, decentralization of macro-fiscal decision-making, and the efficient size of government align with the comprehensive tax system to promote economic growth.

Changes in the oil price formula are of great importance in economic literature for oil producers such as Iran, given their dependence on oil revenue and its large share in their budget. On the other hand, the official oil price formula is a key factor in marketing and determining market share, and national oil companies constantly adjust this system according to changes in market conditions and competitors. The main issue is that in recent years, pricing experts have disagreed on the official oil price formula, so that the first group considers the aforementioned formula to be a function of the Brent crude oil price in the ICE market, but the second group considers the aforementioned formula to be mainly a function of the Mediterranean market index (the difference between Ural crude oil and Brent). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the official Iranian crude oil price formula in the Mediterranean market. In this study, two expert pricing approaches are evaluated: the first is the Brent oil price function in the ICE market, and the second is the Mediterranean market index function. For this purpose, using monthly data from 2007 to 2022, the significance of the aforementioned variables and some other variables such as interest rates and the Dow Jones index on the official price formula has been evaluated using the multivariate GARCH method. The results show that the Mediterranean market index did not have a significant effect on the official Iranian oil price formula, but Brent oil in the ICE market had a significant effect on it. Similarly, the effectiveness of the interest rate and Dow Jones index variables in the two scenarios have significant effects on the Iranian oil price formula.

Iran’s economic dependence on oil has made the country vulnerable to oil price fluctuations, and developing non-oil exports can help reduce these risks. The raisin industry, as one of the country’s export capacities, has consolidated Iran’s position in the fifth place in the world with an annual export of 63,000 tons. This industry can play a key role in increasing employment, GDP, and non-oil revenues. However, in recent years, the share of Iranian raisins in global markets has decreased, and Malayer, known as the global city of grapes and raisins, is no exception to this downward trend. Farmers and activists in the raisin supply chain face numerous risks in the stages of production, processing, packaging, and distribution. This research has identified the most important critical factors by identifying and classifying risks in five main areas (before grape production, during production, processing and packaging, marketing and sales in domestic and foreign markets) and conducting interviews with experts. Then, using the Failure Mode Analysis (FMEA) method, the indicators of probability of occurrence, severity of effect, and ability to face risks were evaluated and ranked by determining the Risk Point Number (RPN). The results show that risks such as weak infrastructure, inefficient contract management, and market fluctuations have significant negative effects on supply chain performance. To improve the conditions, suggestions such as infrastructure development, process standardization, regulatory clarification, and operator training have been presented. These measures can increase productivity, competitiveness in international markets, and economic added value of this industry and contribute to economic stability and sustainable development.

This study aims to design a conceptual model for the internationalization of the country’s automobile industry. Hence, a mixed approach is used in the present study. We collected the required data and information for the qualitative part of the research, through semi-structured interviews with 15 export department managers of Iran Khodro and Saipa, experts, and pundits of the country’s automobile industry that were selected in a targeted snowball method. Then, we used the thematic analysis method to analyze the interviews. Finally, 15 main topics include the Automobile industry, exports, domestic economy status, economic situation of the target country, human capital, supply chain, interaction with global automakers, having a competitive advantage, research and development, government, foreign investment, financing, concluding suitable commercial contracts, Production in the target country, and global standard were identified as determinant factors in the internationalization of the country’s automobile industry. Then, interpretive structural modeling was used to determine the relationship between 15 variables and the internationalization of the country’s automobile industry. Subsequently, an interpretive structural modeling approach was employed to elucidate the interrelationships among the 15 variables and their association with the internationalization of the country’s automobile industry. In the following, in the quantitative phase of the research, to measure their impact, the approach of structural equations was used. To this end, we obtained the required information by distributing 200 questionnaires among the sample members. Then the analysis of structural equations showed that all the factors had appropriate significance. Finally, we introduced the conceptual model of the internationalization of the automobile industry as the main result of this research. According to the mentioned model, for the internationalization of the automobile industry, it is recommended to pay attention to all the 15 identified factors and plan carefully for each of them.