فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 77 (بهمن و اسفند 1385)

Decentralization theories in the economic literature are considered as promoting government's productivity and efficiency and establishing regional balances. Decentralization is also basic tool for stablishing a market – based economy in developing economies. After Islamic Revolution in Iran and especially after the imposed war, fiscal and economic decentralization was officialhy considered as a strategic policy for the developing of provinces.Firstly, they founded planning committee and then planning council to step up towards decentralization. But the main concern for economic planner is to investigate the mechanism of the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth. In this paper by using augmented Solow model the direct and indirect effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth is evaluated. Using auto regressive distributed lag models, we found that fiscal decentralization (the ratio of province's budgets to national budget) positively affects the rate of economic growth both in the short run and the long run. One percent increase in fiscal decentralization increase economic growth by 0.05 percent. Also positively affects on economic growth through macro stability.

The empirical literature about economic growth has extensively shown that a country’s economic growth is indeed affected by the performance of its neighbors and influenced by its geographical position. This paper is to consider the "convergence theory" and the geographical dimension of a set of data in the estimation of the convergence and uses "spatial econometrics to estimate a growth model" that includes cross-country interdependence. Based on the OIC state members and its available 38 observations over two decades (1980‏−2000), it is shown that the unconditional -convergence model prevails the spillover effects among the OIC countries which are very important for growth. Since, the estimation by ordinary least squares leads to inefficient estimators and invalid statistical inferences, the maximum likelihood method is used to correct the spatially autocorrelated errors. Using spatial econometric methods and a distance based weight matrix, it is estimated that an alternative specification, which can take into account the spatial autocorrelation leading to highlight a geographic spillover effect: the mean growth rate of a region does not have positive and statistically valid influences by those of neighboring regions. It is found that spatial relationships across countries are not quite relevant and the convergence theory can not help the OIC state members. So, other international policies such as establishing a common market as a core or as a growth pole is needed to work with the peripheral and semi peripheral countries in the region.

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate a model of factors affecting income (expenditure) distribution in Iran. Doing so, first Gini coefficients and shares of different 20 th income catagories have been estimated for different Iranian Provinces. Then, using the most recent cross-province data by applying a multivariate regression model. the effects of the GRP, Inflation, tax and Government expenditure on the economic inequality have been estimated. According to the results, the Kuznets hypothesis can not be accepted. Ratio of income tax to GRP, Inflation and government expenditure have inequality effects. In order to analyse the effects on different twenties, the SUER model is estimated. The results indicate that increase in per capita income has reduced inequality via decrease in 5th twenties in favour of the other 20 th, especially the 1st twenties. On the other hand, increase in tax, Inflation and government expenditures have increased inequality through the reduction in share of the first four twenties (%80) of population in favour of the top twenty percent.

In this paper, using an applied general equilibrium model, and not partial equilibrium model, we analyze Dutch disease in Iranian economy. The results of analysis show that due to the shock created by the increase of 50% in oil income the phenomena of Dutch disease occurred in Iranian economy 2005. As a result the tradable sectors especially the agriculture and industry have been weakened and the construction as a non-tradable sector has been strenthened. On the other hand, the increase in real exchange rate has followed as it is expected.The increase of import and the decrease of non-oil export in all sectors are other results of our research. The increase of production costs which lead to an increase in domestic. Prices that in turn reduces the competability of such products with products produced by foreign countries. In other words this will intensify the weakening of tradable sectors.

Garin-Lowry Model is one of a few Land use models which has became popular in estimation of employment and population, because of its simple, powerful structure and restricted information requirements. This paper presents evaluation of estimation of employment and population using dynamic Garin-Lowry Model in a ten year period in the region of Tehran, and two scenarios of existence and nonexistence of movement of preceding employment and population, and (1) two yearly step-by-step – and (2) a ten years step- time status. In this paper, a level of basic employment enters the region in different iterations of yearly planning period, step by step. Gradual entrance of employments and its allocation in the region causes the gradual changes of effective parameters in selection of service employment location and residential location. Therefore, since there is a high flexibility and movement in selection of employment and residential location in the region, then much better results are achieved in the scenario of existence of movement of preceding employment and population and otherwise scenarios of nonexistence of movement of preceding employment and population. For this purpose, corresponding to two considered scenarios and two methods of yearly step-by-step modeling and a ten year step, these four scenarios are modeled. Comparison of product results in their estimations of employment and population with the existing observations represent that scenarios of nonexistence of movement of preceding employment and population achieve better results in reconstruction of employment and population in the region of Tehran in the ten year period of 1987-1996.

In this paper, in order to have a more a accurate forecast, three kinds of models: linear regression, time series and artificial neural network are used. Using Lyapunov exponent test, the structure of time series based on linearity, nonlinearity and stochastic process is studied. The results show a weak chaos in the system and declare possibility of applying nonlinear modeling for short-run forecasts.Using artificial neural network, linear regression and time series methods, occupational income tax are forecasted for period 1379-1383 and their performance is compared with each other. The results indicate better performance of neural network model.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the role of labor productivity in wage setting in the manufacturing sector of Iran. For this purpose, the wage bargaining model has been estimated in the manufacturing sub-sectors(mainly large firms) by applying panel data method with fixed effect over 1998-2003.The results indicate that both explanatory variables-labor productivity and substitute wage rate- have positive impact on the wage rate, but the coefficient of labor productivity is smaller than the substitute wage coefficient, this implies that in the manufacturing sector of Iran, the substitute wage rate has more influence on the wage rate determination than the labor productivity.

Evidences indicate that openness of economy play a remarkable role in the formation of relative wages in the world. In this paper on the base of Stolper- Samuelson theory, we investigate the effects of trade liberalization and tariff reduction on wages inequality in Iran. In order to test and quantify the relationship, we have used a panel limited dependent Tobit model which is estimated by MLE. Our data consist of the micro data on households’ socioeconomic surveys (1380-1382) and aggregate data on the tariff rates of different sectors in economic activities according to ISIC four digits codes. We found evidences in the favor of our hypothesis in which reduction in tariff rates contribute to an increase in the wage gap in Iran. Trade liberalization causes a reduction in the wage of unskilled workers and benefits the skilled groups workers.