فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 84 (پاییز 1387)

This paper investigates the effects of globalization, (export+import)/gdp, tariffs, total factor productivity and per capita capital stock on industrial profitability. We employ the price-wage gap as a proxy for profitability. Data used has been made of pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panel, a technique recently developed in dynamic panel data literature. Our results show that the signs of all four variables are positive, tariffs have greatest and globalization has lowest impact on industrial profit. Therefore the implication of tariff reduction in the case of accession to WTO is that profitability will be reduced, while increased volume of trade (globalization) has lowest impact on it.

There are different methodes for performance evaluation of economic development plans and ranking them in comparison with each other. These methods are founded on both quantitative and qualitative approaches. However, real world events are based upon uncertainty and since quantitative methods, unlike their names, are not accurate enough, they do not seem to be efficient in qualitative decision-making area and qualitative methods can act better. Due to this fact and since qualitative methods aim to use the knowledge and comments of a broad range of experts in the process of decision making, they can improve the validity of scientific findings of researchers and increase the reliability of managers and policy makers decisions. This article presents the results of a study that assesses and analyses the performance of economic development plans with a systemic approach by using the content analysis method and by relying on “an original mathematical model”. In the rest, it tries to rank and grade the plans by Yager Ranking method. The results of this research show that the economic development plans implemented in the region, instead of being beneficial, often have led the regional and local development to unsustainablity. In the end, the study suggests policies for guiding the region towards a more desirable situation (from the aspect of development sustainablity).

Land- phone, like mobile, internet and fax is a communication device and has network externality effect. Thus as the penetration coefficient increases, the network effect improves. The transmission of information via the word of mouth is the main source of enhancing the network externalities coefficient. In this article we have investigated the factors affecting the network externality coefficient. The results show the effects of technical as well as the economical factors on this coefficient. The network externality coefficient is low; but since the shape of S curve diffusion of technology has not yet been completed, the expansion of land- phone network due to demand curve has a main role in the people's willingness to pay for the service of land- phone.

Empirical evidence seems to indicate that economic growth has varied inversely with natural resource abundance across countries, in which high natural resources dependent economies experience the low economic growth. This paper first reviews the literature of resources curse and shows that the most important challenges of economic development of Iran are those mechanisms that change the blessing of resources to the curse. Then, the impacts of oil boom on trade structure and national competitiveness are studied by estimation of the trade sector equations. The results confirm the competitiveness reduction of the country during the oil boom due to changes of level and combination of exports and imports.

Gas injection is assumed as one of the main methods of improving oil recovery in Iranian oil fields. So it's necessary that considerable portion of natural gas produced to be injected into oil reservoirs within next years. gas allocation to various applications will create different opportunity costs. Specifying net benefit function, different opportunity costs are determined in comparison of gas injection during 2006-2031. The results of this study show that the "increasing pressure" scenario of oil reservoirs is prior to the scenario of gas injection to keep the present pressure of oil reservoirs (continuity of current and anticipated situation of gas injection). Discount rate is a major role in selecting the priorities of gas resource allocation in Iran. At low discount rate, gas injection has prior to gas export while at high discount rate gas injection loses its absolute preference to gas export. Absences of compressive energy policy and steady growth of energy consumption specifically in end-user sections would cause the negative gas balance. In this condition gas injection to oil fields would not possible appropriate the oil field necessity for keeping pressure and gas export reveals high opportunity cost.

Conventionally, regression and time series analyses have been employed in modeling water demand forecasts. In recent years, the relatively new technique of neural networks (NNS) has been proposed as an efficient tool for modeling and forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the relatively new technique of GMDH – Type neural networks for the use of forecasting long – term urban water demand in Tehran city. The data employed in this study includes water consumption (per capita), water price, average household income and the annual average air temperature for the city of Tehran, Iran. The neural networks model, regression model, and time series model have been estimated and compared. The comparison reveals that the neural networks model consistently outperformed the regression and time series models developed in this study.

In this paper, we first review shortly movements in international monetary system and various theories of capital flows including portfolio and balance of payments approaches. Then, we will focus particularly on Feldstein- Horioka (F-H) approach by which capital mobility is analyzed for 16 developing countries over 1980-2003 through a panel data method. The main objective of this paper is thus to explore the role of foreign aids and trade integration in international capital mobility through applying F-H approach in the selected developing countries. The empirical results show a significant and positive effect of foreign aids, while integration in East Asia has led to the higher rate of capital mobility in the regional. However, the cross effect of foreign aids and trade integration in East Asia and Latin America is significant but unexpected. In contrast, such effect seems to be significant and expected in West Asia so that this implies the optimal allocation of foreign resources which stimulates capital mobility and improves economic capacities through implementing trade integration.

The purpose of this article is the measurement of technical efficiency and returns to scale using data envelopment (DEA) approach. In this study, we have measured efficiency quantity and economies of scale for state owned insurance and private companies for 1384-1385 periods. The results reveal that in the DEA with the assumption of variable returns to scale, Iran, Tosee and Razi companies have the most technical efficiency. In the between selective companies Razi company has the best performance. This company in the 1384 and 1385 years has the strict efficiency and returns to scale is constant. The results also reveal that state-owned companies have the decreasing returns to scale. So; the efficient policy for these companies is to reduce economic scale and decrease inputs.

Globalization is a phenomenon of recent times. The world economy is moving towards a more intense & integrated status while at the same time local economies are becoming more interdependent. The fast pace of globalization and how to tackle the offspring ’s of such a movement have become a major challenge for the whole world as a whole in general and for the developing countries in particular. Considering the fact that competitiveness is the corner stone of globalization, it is very important to determine which sectors of an economy can withstand international competition so that domestic resources can be channeled to proper sectors while at the same time bring about the needed improvements and necessary changes to secure the required structural modifications. Since Persian Rug is a major non-oil export of the Islamic Republic of Iran (I.R.I), it is quite important to study and analyze the level of competitiveness of this industry. In this study a Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) is used to estimate certain indexes to evaluate the ability of the Persian Rug Industry to compete internationally before and after joining the WTO. Persian rugs are woven in different parts of the I.R.I. However, the rugs woven in Eastern Azarbayejan have worldwide reputation. For this reason the rugs woven in this province are chosen for analysis. Although different rugs are woven in this province, the one mostly exported is the hand-woven rug called 65-Radj Cheleh Abrishami Silk Flower. Therefore, our analysis is concentrated on this specific type of rug using the 2006 data. The results indicate that the Export Competitive Index (ECI) for the rug in question is 0.81. Based on this index the 65-Radj Cheleh Abrishami Silk Flower can compete in the world markets. Also the Comparative Advantage Index based on unit costs which is the same as real competitive advantage in a free competitive situation (which is the situation after being accepted to the WTO) for the said rug is 0.83. These numbers show that Eastern Azarbayejan province has a comparative advantage in the production of the rug in question.