نشریه جغرافیا و توسعه ناحیه ای
سال چهارم شماره 2 (پیاپی 7، پاییز و زمستان 1385)

Rain modeling in recent years has been of great importance in water resource management and its function in long term and short term planning, especially its great effect on agricultural economy. To reach to good results Box-Jenkins Model is much more efficient. The writers of this article have used the data collected in Tabriz and Oroumiyeh stations in a fifty year period and then presented the final rain model based on seasonal ARIMA.

Rural residences in Khorasan Province have special situations under the influence of different factors including: unevenness, climate, water resources soil and herbaceous covering, investments and related previous policies. The first feature which is affected, is the rural population. The number of rural population and its scatterness, creates three specific rural areas in Northern, Southern and Central parts of the province. Recognizing the potentials and limitations of rural development in the province will be very helpful in rural development planning. This article presents the potentials and the limitations of rural areas in Khorasan Province for a better development planning.

A PCA has been applied to covariance matrix of NCEP/NCAR daily hgt data at 12 GMT from 1974 to 2003 for a region bounded between zero to seventy degree east and ten to sixty north. This analysis showed that thirteen PCs explain about 96 percent of variance in standardized hgt data. Applying a cluster analysis using world’s method on PC scores reveals nine separate circulation patterns. Some of these patterns show seasonal signals and frequency of the patterns change annually. It is likely that seasonal and annual changes of climate of Iran could be explained in terms of temporal behavior of these circulation patterns.

The growth of industries during the Industrialization and after the Industrial Revolution has caused environmental problems all around the world; specifically in industrial countries. In spite of having high technology, industrial countries have not been able to solve the problem of environmental pollution. Even meetings and conferences such as those held in Stockholm and Johannesburg have not been a great help in solving the problem. Iran, though, not been affected by the heavy industrial pollution; has many problems in the area of forests, pastures and soil; and the environmental problems have been very critical in these areas. The extent of forests from 600 million hectares in 1921 has reduced to 1.7 million hectares in 2003. Pastures also have the same situation and reduced from 80 million hectares in 1991 to 40 million hectares in recent years.

For ecotourism planning of an area, we need to have bioclimatic comfort maps. This can help us decrease pollution, change of land use and increase tourism. Langrood wetland is a natural potential gravity with long term bioclimatic comfort. The purpose of this paper is the recognition of bioclimatic comfort potentials in the wetland during the year. Avanz method has been used for this research and this paper is a part of a research project aiming to increase the income of Langrood Municipality. The results of this research show that June and July is warm, March, April, May, August, September and October has comfort and other months are cold. On the whole, ten months have bioclimatic comfort in Langrood wetland.

Madarsoo is a major tributary of Gorganrood River, draining an area about 2150 km2 South-East of Caspian Sea. Intense floods of Madarsoo River (Dogh) in 2001, 2002 and 2007 can be considered as catastrophic floods. The flood which happened in 2001 is considered as a starting point of a new period of geomorphic crisis in the region. This flood affected the whole drainage basin and its intense morphological change confirms new catastrophic opinions in periodic evolution of relives. After an analytical study of geomorphic floods, this paper considers the geomorphic effects of these catastrophic floods in comparison with ordinary floods (bank full discharge) in a regional scale. Considering the similarity of geomorphic effects of recent floods with the existing evidences provided from palaeofloods, an idea can be presented that a passing period of climatic change has started in the region and it will be accompanied with significant geomorphic problems. Therefore a conscious treatment is needed for adjusting flood control projects and reconstruction of natural environment.

Better understanding and recognizing the amount of cultural development in Iranian provinces and comparing them, causes a particular attention and helps to recognize their weaknesses, strengths, potentialities and deficiencies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze cultural development indicators in Iran. The writers of this article present an applied research and use a comparative method. Using deductive surveying and research methods, the writers of this article have attempted to show the lack of balance in the distribution of cultural services and specifically present suggestions and guidelines for achieving the optimum condition. The findings of this research could be significant in regional planning.

Fair distribution of services and facilities is a step at leveling the regional differences and it will result in uniform population distribution in a region. Numeric Taxonomical Analysis (NTA) can help to evaluate the extent that each region enjoys these services and facilities. This model will first divide the subcategories of the study into homogeneous groups and then will estimate the extent of development within each group. In this paper, the writer of the article studied the villages of Shirvan in 1997, using NTA method and considering 38 indices. The study shows that the villages of Hoome and Ziyarat are respectively the most and the least developed villages of Shirvan. Regarding development, two villages out of eight (Hoome and Giliyan) are more developed. The village of Takmaran is partly developed and others are considered as undeveloped villages. The results of the present research can be used for regional planning and allocation of development budgets.

The presence of rural immigrants in the city of Yazd is not accidental. This kind of immigration has its own reasons. The writers of this article try to find the reasons for the immigration of villagers to the city of Yazd and the conditions of these immigrants. The statistical population of this research is the villagers who have migrated to the city of Yazd during a period of twenty years from 1976 to 1996. The total number of immigrants is 29102 and the total number of families is 6584. Participants are selected randomly and then the questionnaires have been distributed among them. The statistical analysis has been done by SPSS software. The results of the study show that employment has been the main reason for immigration. In addition to employment, having access to educational and sanitary facilities was also important. Other factors such as having a piece of land, a house, relatives etc. were not so important in the immigration of these villagers.

Drought is a climatological hazard and is a part of the climate of a region. This climatological phenomenon has some properties that distinguish it from other natural disasters. Drought is a gradual phenomenon and when the amount of moisture and precipitation become less than normal value in a certain period, its damages are non- structural in this condition and it is said that drought has occurred. Researches show that drought damages are the highest among natural disasters. Therefore the extensive monitoring or creating an early warning system in the drought prone area is inevitable. One of the basic instruments of drought monitoring is the application of its index. In this paper Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been assessed as a valid and applicable model. The PDSI uses temperature (T), precipitation (P) and available water holding capacity (AWC) of the soil. Using these data for each period, potential amount of evapotranspiration is calculated based on two layer model for soil moisture computations. Then, other parameters such as potential of recharge and potential of runoff are being calculated. Finally the model output results which are monthly deviation moisture (Z) and drought severity index (X3i) have been determined to use designed software for mashed synoptic station for the statistical period (1971-2003).