پژوهشنامه بازرگانی
پیاپی 50 (بهار 1388)

Designating a system of policies for basic goods subsidy adjustments and welfare effects of subsidy reduction is widely accentuate by Iranian policy makers and economists. This article tries to answer one of the main questions of this matter such as "what is the equivalent amount of money for compensating welfare loss of household through eliminating bread, sugar and oil subsidies?" By using microeconomic methodology and with regards to the theoretical literature of welfare indices, demand systems and household clustering, we cluster household base on homogeneity of consumption behaviors and estimate linear approximate of almost ideal demand systems (LA\AIDS) for different clusters in five independent groups and also compute welfare indices (equivalent income, compensated variation and the cost of living index). After that, we analyze results of bread, sugar and edible oils price adjustment in five groups of households. For cluster one to three, relative effects of bread price is greater than sugar and edible oils and for clusters four and five, relative effect for edible oils is greater than bread and sugar. Finally, we introduce "Policy Effects Matrix" for bread and conclude that its price adjustment policy is decreasing from cluster one to five.

Production advantage measuring is a branch of economics with strong linkages with microeconomics and macroeconomics. Regarding microeconomics, entrepreneurs try to choose places for their activities in which they can earn the highest profits. Also regarding macroeconomics, determination of regional advantages is important, because of its effects on optimal allocation of resources in the economy. In this paper we rank Iranian provinces according to their advantage levels for dairy industry. Thus firstly theories and models of advantage measuring and its factors were reviwed. Then because of the numerous factors influencing growth and development of this industry, multi-criteria models were surveyed and evaluated, among which, two models- weighted numerical taxonomy and AHP- were choosen for determination of advantage level of Iranian provinces subject to dairy industry. Then by collecting the necessary data and calculating importance coefficients for advantage determination factors- using the industry experts ideas, around the country- we ran the relative models and surveyed the results. The results of this paper show that Tehran and after it, Qom, Qazvin, Guilan and Khozestan have the most advantage level for dairy industry development. Also the correlation coefficient between province rankings with WNT and AHP calculated about 0.93 which suggests the high capability of substitution between these two methods. In fact these methods with high degree of reliability, confirm each other.

Recently, many researches have been performed about the relationship between economic growth and poverty and economists have debated the notion that growth sinks down to benefit the poor or growth may well occur at the same time as large groups of people are being increasingly impoverished. This paper investigates the impact of the relationship between economic growth and poverty in Iran by using data set for the period (1984-2004) to analyze the growth elasticity of poverty, that is, 0.006 percentage poverty decline in percentage terms with a 1 percentage rise in economic growth. Economic growth contributes to tiny poverty reduction. The discussion is analytical, and empirical approaches assess the poverty elasticity of growth; the emphasis is that the relationship between growth and poverty change is non-constant. For a given poverty measure, it depends on initial inequality and on the location of the poverty line relative to mean income. In most cases, inequality is more important for poverty reduction than changes in growth.

The main purpose in this article has been to evaluate the exchange rate volatility in Iran using the family of the ARCH models. Doing so, the symmetric GARCH and asymmetric TARCH, EGARCH and APGARCH models are applied. The results have indicated that the volatility caused by the bad (negative) news is relatively larger than that caused by the good (positive) news.

A seasonal tariff is a kind of customs duties which varies across different periods or seasons. It is used where the supply-demand equilibrium varies with the season in a meaningful way. It doesnt concern only agricultural products and, due to the seasonal variation of supply and demand, may cover a broader range of products. A seasonal tariff is mainly determined by price fluctuation and the necessity of market regulation. This paper follows three

1. to identify those agricultural products which require seasonal tariffs, 2. to determine those months during which seasonal tariffs are needed for the identified products, and 3. to calculate the required seasonal tariffs. To these ends, the method of price gap/ differential and applied import duties in 1997- 2005 has been used. As per authors, findings, out of 294 agricultural products, eight product- apple, orange, potato, onion, peas, watermelon and tomato - are of utmost priority for having seasonal tariffs owing to their monthly price fluctuation during the said period. Their terms of seasonal tariff - harvest periods - are as follows: Mordad- Bahman for apple, Mehr-Bahman for orange, Mordad-Bahman for grapes, Tir-Bahman for potato, Ordibehesht-Azar for onion, Khordad-Shahrivar for peas, Tir-Aban for watermelon and Khordad-Azar for tomato. Furthermore, according to the authors, findings, seasonal tariff rates (deemed equal to bound tariffs) for imports during harvest periods rang from 81 percent for watermelon to 47.5 percent for potato.

This paper investigates the relationship between public investment in transportation and economic growth using cointegration approach over 1959 to 2005. There is, however, conflicting evidence in the literature regarding the question as to how the composition of government expenditure affects economic growth. In particular, on the relationship between public investment in transportation (infrastructure) and economic growth, there has been a mixed picture. We find that there is a long run relationship between investment in transportation and economic growth and its impact is positive. In comparison with earlier studies, our estimated coefficients are exact.

Steel industry management always needs strategic decisions for planning new capacities with high technologies. In recent years we feel this need more than always, because of important roles which China and other countries play. One of the managing tools for making effective decisions is System Dynamics and system thinking methods. This methodology can simulate different supply chains and by that we can see the results of our simulation immediately. In this research we try to simulate Iran steel industry supply chain, accordingly at first the main variables defining this system to considerable extent are identified and realized, then their relations are codified according to casual loop diagrams, then its technical structure is completed through design of the main model according to stock- flow diagram and assimilated in the VENSIM software. Through execution of model and analysis of its results we recognize some effective parameters which their changes can influence over profit of steel industry. At last we identified more effective and more principal indexes. Therefore any strategy and solution can be tested and assessed with this model, although detailed study and expanding of the model is suggested, and variables which exist in real world can be added to model.

In strategic management, one of the corporate level strategies is the mergers and acquisitions strategy (M&A). The main aims of this strategy are to create value and maximize the shareholder's wealth. Managers acquire companies mostly to create synergy.We examine the post-acquisition performance of target firms using a sample of 57 acquisitions between Iran public industrial firms completed in the period of 1983 to 1997 through non-parametric techniques of Friedman and TStudent. We used industry-adjusted measures to control for events in economy and industry that are unrelated to mergers and acquisitions. The results indicate that acquired firms havent improved in sales growth, asset productivity, and return on equity relative to their industries after acquisitions. Also results indicate that operating cash flows of acquired firms have significant improvements. The empirical results indicate that value isnt created in Iranian target firms.