پژوهشنامه علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
پیاپی 35 (نیمه دوم 1388)

Identification of relationship between unemployment and inflation in economic is important for economic policies. This paper identifies exact relationship between unemployment and inflation and investigates monetary policies effects in Iran economic with respect to Phillips curve (New classic, New Keynesian) and natural rate of unemployment and NAIRU in long run and short run for period 1338-1384.Therefor time series baste VAR method and structure baste OLS method have been used. In this paper filter Hadrik-Preskat method has been used for identification invisible quantities of expected inflation rate, natural rate of unemployment and potential product. Research result confirms new classic and New Keynesian theories in Iran's economic regarding adaptive and rational expectations, i.e. Phillips curve in Iran's economy has negative slop with those adaptive and rational expectations assumption in long run and short run.

Economic justice has been attended by so many thinkers. Among whom, John Rawls does have a seminal place. He can be counted in equalitarian tradition; however at the same time he is loyal to liberalism. The newness of his idea is in his intermingling individualism and equalitarianism. This paper is responsible to analyze and criticize the foundation of economic justice theory of John Rawls. In developing this paper, it is used of analytical- descriptive method along with justice theories as well as public sector economic theories.

One of the most important issues in economics is the impact of development of capital market on private consumption expenditure. In the various researches in developed countries meaningful asset effects of stock market on consumption have been seen, but there are doubts about these effects in developing countries.By considering the fluctuations of Iran stock market, investigating the effects of stock market asset on private consumption expenditure is very crucial.In this paper, we used seasonal data of the period 1370-1386. Finding shows that there is a positive effect of stock market effects on private consumption expenditure.

Certainly, knowing what factors are influencing Price manipulation is of great importance having information transparency, fair pricing of capital assets and promoting the market efficiency.In this article, first, the abnormal Returns- significance difference between actual and risk-based adjusted expected returns- by using an autoregressive test, for all 130 accepted firms in Tehran's stock market during 2000-2004 are calculated, which seemed to be manipulated, since they had been experienced great fluctuations in their stock prices. For any firm, if changes in its share's prices is not at random and/or its stock prices is auto correlated with the past ones, we can come to this conclusion that the firm is under a price manipulation. In the next stage, we have developed a binary logic regression model for predicting the firm's price manipulation based on the four factors, namely, the information transparency, the liquidity of the shares, the size (capital) of the firm and the P/E ratio. The dataset for fitting the model has been collected from one year before the firm being faced with price manipulation. Finally, the model efficiency for predicting Price manipulation in Tehran's stock market is validated by using appropriate statistical tests such as, The Wald, Likelihood, and the Wlik's Lambda tests.

The EKC hypothesis postulates an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and the level of development. Along with trend of development, industrialization and the growth of technology in last years, air pollution has discussed as a serious problem for man. In particular, if we concentrate on local air pollutants many empirical contributions have identified a bell-shaped curve linking per capita pollution to per capita GDP (but in the case of global pollutants like CO2 the evidence is less clear-cut).This study estimates the relationship between human development index (HDI) as index of economic development and per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during 1990-2004 using panel data for two groups of countries: the countries in the region of the South West Asia and the annex 1 countries in Kyoto protocol. The result of study shows an increasing trend for developing countries of the South West Asia and an N-shaped curve for the annex 1 countries.

Lucas critique based on the optimize decisions of economic units is changed systematically with changing in decision-making process of policy makers, caused that the ability of macro-economic models has been considered such as the Phillips curve in the prediction of the economic policies. Based on the importance of these models and using them to predict, the dependence to the Lucas critique test and on the other words to the parameters stability test in the desired models are required.Regarding the importance of Phillips curve in the monetary and fiscal policies, in this study tried to focus to the parameters stability test. To reach the goal, methods of Bai and Perron and also annual data during 1961-2007 in Iranian economy have been used. The findings show that along with changes in expectations of economic units, the Phillips curve with different slope has shifted and the parameters have not the required stability. As a result the economic policy makers in Iran can not rely on the existence of a significant relationship between economic variables of the past using Phillips curve model and broaden it to the future and based on that, predict the interesting economic policies.