فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 45 (بهار 1387)

This study attempts to answer the question that whether the First, Second and Third Development Plans in Iran (1368-1383) could have changed the poverty structure in Semnan Province? In answering this question, the poverty line, head-count index, poverty gap index and the Foster-Greek-Thorbecke index have been estimated based on household income-expenditure statistics using Linear Expenditure System (LES) and Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ISUR). The results demonstrate that the poverty line in urban and rural areas during the said period exhibits an upward trend. It is also found that the poverty line in urban areas is always above the rural areas. In addition, the proportion of poor class people and the depth of poverty in urban and rural areas in Semnan Province have been increased during the First Development Plan but have been decreased during the Second and Third Development Plans.

This study is carried out with the objective of analyzing the marketing of saffron in Fars Province and the factors at work in saffron exports in Iran. The results show that there are two main avenues of saffron marketing in Fars Province: First, producers, groceries and consumers with a total margin of 500 thousands Rials, and secondly, producers, whole-sellers, retailers and consumers with a total margin of 520 thousands Rials per one kg. The marketing costs and the share of contractors from the marketing costs in the first avenue were 351 thousands Rials and 64 per cent, respectively. Similar figures for the second avenue were calculated as 353 thousands Rials and 62 per cent, respectively. Price inefficiencies in the aforementioned avenues were about 17 and 68 per cent, respectively. The models for marginal marketing demonstrated that the retail prices and marketing costs were the effective factors marketing margins. In addition, the export supply function implies that Iranian saffron exports depend largely on the world's prices.

There are an extensive research work done on inflation and its causes both in developing and developed countries. There exists a unique understanding about the concept of inflation but not a general agreement on its causes amongst economists. In this study, data relating to the period 1353-1384 have been used. To examine the effects of production in industrial, agricultural and services sectors on inflation, econometric methods are utilized, i.e., Autoregressive Distribution Lags (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction (VEC). The results following ARDL imply that each 10 per cent increase in the rate of liquidity induces 6.4 per cent increase in the general price level. Moreover, based on VEC method, it is shown that the hypothesis of monetary inflation can not be accepted in Iranian economy. The ARDL model also implies that the increase in production would lead to a decrease in inflation in Iranian economy as compared to the increase in production of industrial sector. In other words, it can be argued that to control the inflation in Iranian economy it is necessary for the Government to perform higher guidance and regulatory role in her economic policies towards expanding production services and agricultural sectors.

This study is carried out with the objective of forecasting nominal and real prices of some agricultural products such as onions, potatoes and tomatoes. After the analysis of stationarity of the associated time-series, the randomness of the variables is studied using the non-parametric Wald-Wulfowitz and the parametric Durbin-Watson tests. The results show that all the nominal price series of the said products and the real price series of potatoes were identified as non-random and forecastable time-series. The time-horizon for this study is 1350-1384. Models used for the forecasting in this analysis were AR, MA, ARIMA, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic Analysis, ARCH and the Artificial Neuro-network. Amongst the four forecasting series based on the minimum-error criterion, the AR and MA models forecasted the nominal price series of onions and potatoes much better. The Harmonic model forecasted the nominal price of tomatoes with minimal error. The forecasted values for the real price of potatoes using the ARCH model produced the minimum errors. Forecasting error for the nominal price series of potatoes was less than its real price series. The forecasting values for the year 1385 and 1386 were shown to be mere than the similar values for 1384, with the exception of the price for potatoes.