فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی
سال بیست و چهارم شماره 2 (پیاپی 93، تابستان 1388)

Statistical methods are efficient and useful tools to perceive and evaluate climate behavior. One of statistical applications in climatology is modeling of climatic elements behavior. An applied statistic models is ARIMA. In this statistical pattern values are modeled based on their historical behavior modeled. In this paper، the annual temperature of Tabriz city was modeled during 1951-2005. To forecast Mean while adjusting method of ARIMA have been introduced step by step. The ARIMA (0،1،2) can was identified as final pattern based on common modeling. The first order of difference degree shows a linear trend what is approved by a constant term in co model. According to the ARIMA (0،1،2) can the amount of this trend is 0. 033 Ċ par year. The second order of moving average in Indicates that temperature for each year is functioned by stochastic parameters of previous year. Finally، According to the adjusted model، the temperature of 20 year with 95% confidence interval have been calculated.

Ski tourism، nowdays in mountainous regions of developed countries، have a specific role and beacause of its great interested and economic advantages in raising local employment and welfare as a growth and development strategy in the world is considered. The Purpose of this paper is both present the method of site selection and recognition susceptible areas for ski tourism، using GIS and RS data techniques، and emphasize on ski tourism، as a recreational-sportive activity. This tourism happens generally in rural areas and countrysides، and attracts special level of urban people which expected bring transformation and development in some moutainous regions. In this study، a touristic region in Ardebil has been chosen according to the suitable snowcapped areas and winter natural attractiveness including Ardebil، Namin، neer and Meshkinshahr provinces. The results of this research indicated that there are numerous potentially places for ski tourism.

Atmospheric circulation patterns play an important role in producing environmental phenomena، particularly in temperate zones. Therefore، identification of atmospheric circulation patterns that control the climate of Iran is essential. In the present research، the principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) techniques were used to classify the daily atmospheric circulation patterns over Iran in a synoptic scale. For this purpose، the mean daily 500 hpa and sea level pressure (SLP) grided data sets during 1950-2006 was retrieved from NCEP/NCAR and used. The used data consists of 408 points regularly distributed over the region، 20 N - 60 N and 20 E - 80E، with the 2. 5 degree spatial resolution. By applying the S-mode PCA، the 408 grids covering the study area، were reduced into 9 PCs accounting for 94 percent of total variance. The 9 leading PCs were rotated using varimax rotation in order to obtain simpler and physically interpretable results. Then، all days (20828) were classified into 18 groups by applying K-means clustering on the resultant 9 PC scores. The composite maps of the identified groups were drawn and represented as the atmospheric circulation patterns. Monthly distribution and long term trends of the identified circulation patterns were also present. The results show a significant difference in patterns، frequency of weather types and their direction to Iran. According to the obtained results، the presented method in this research can consider as a quantitative and certain method to derive atmospheric circulation patterns. Also، this pattern can be as an indicator to analyze environmental phenomena and synoptic patterns relationship.

The UNDP recommends in order to measure human development in worldwide countries 3 vital factors of humankind life، including، life expectancy، literacy ratio and per capita should be considered. The multiple factors and variables misleading conditions for lead to ambiguity outcomes، which involved policy-makers. The Islamic countries Conference (ICC) including 56 countries have been considered as statistical population، which were prepared by CIA. The methodology of this research was based on library method and data، using the applied model HDI and GIS methods were analyzed. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate deprivation ratio of Islamic countries to present a classification and clustering analysis and to display development gap between Islamic countries by diagram. The results indicated that 29 Islamic countries of ICC classified in deprived and high deprived categories. Also the deprivation ratio was 24 between most deprived countries with most developed them.

Urbanization is a rapid developing phenomenon. Analysis of appropriate areas and geographic distribution of urban green space are of great importance in the future of a city. Selection of a suitable position for parks and urban green space is a trouble some process that considered as an effectiveness of urban parameter on life quality. There are complex procedures for which not only need abundant technical ability، but also need fundamental، economical، social، environmental and political backgrounds. For processing of these complex parameters، different tools such as GIS، Multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are needed to be used. Birjand is the capital of the southern Khorasan province Since 2003 with a 13% population growth rate during the period of 2003-2006. In the present study، an attempt has been made to find out an appropriate model to evaluate suitable areas for urban green space using AHP technique. The results of the present study indicated that the urban green space was found to be not suitable for future population، needs suggesting that the most appropriate positions to arrange the green spaces could be the old fields and also destructive buildings in the area of the urban services.

Global warming gives rise to higher probability of extreme temperature values and related events. Social and environmental impacts of these events are great at local scale. Most of the research that has been done on this issue in different countries denotes decrease of cold extremes and increase of warm extremes. To examine such changes، we used daily temperature data in 1951-2003 Period from 27 Iranian synoptic stations that have homogenous and high quality data and covering standard normal period (base period) 1961-1990. We used extreme temperature indices in five categories of percentile-based، absolute، threshold، duration، and other ones. Some of our obtained results show negative trends for extreme indices like number of frost days (FD)، number of ice days (ID)، cool days (TX10p)، and cool nights (TN10p) in most stations under study. For instance، decrease of 8 to 10 frost days per decade in the northeast of the country is noteworthy. Conversely، we got positive trends for indices such as summer days (SU25)، warm days (TX90p)، and warm nights (TN90p) in most stations under study. Increases of 5 to 7 warm days per decade in Shiraz and Tehran are remarkable. We found all three behaviors of stationarity، positive and negative trends for indices such as warm and cold spell duration indices (WSDI and CSDI). Compared to other indices، spatial and temporal changes of the above two indices could not be interpreted well. Apart from some exceptions، our results were in agreement with the latest findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other worldwide studies.

Razavar River in the Kamyaran''s plain- west of Iran - has been exposed to mining for gravel exploring. Thus، some parts of its bed have been intense disturbed. But، now the river visualizes other flow and sedimentation dynamics devices due to increase number of production gravel sites and therefore، their effects reflect in the river bed morphology. Because of ways of changes in the sediment transport dynamic determine، discharges and suspended load of river was sampled eleven times in the Razavar river bed from 3 point of each 3 site of sand – gravel production. ANOVA and Factor analysis of these data show that suspended load increased extremely in the removal sand- gravel site، but again their density amount gently decreased. These processes continue to 600 meter after pollution source and river come back to a foretime situation to transition of sediment in this distance. Thus، point bars and channel extension rapidly developed in the less than 600 meters far from gravel production sites.